Player Watch 2022 AFL National Draft Discussion - read the pinned post

[Strapping Young Lad]

National AFL draft Monday November 28(first round only).
All other selections to be held on Tuesday November 29.
The pre-season and rookie drafts will then take place at 3pm (AEST) on Wednesday November 30.

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

Wait . Isn't Hustwaite the new Pendles? You mean that there are two of them?

I would be shocked if Tsatas dropped as far as the Cats. How would Clark feel?

I think he falls even further than Geelong now.

 

[kirbatron]

Toys are ready

 

[TheFourPillars]

Toys are ready

You may need to share

 

[Brishawk]

Toys are ready

You may need to share

I have plenty of toys for all

 

[killerspud]

 

[Scrads]

who knows? I think splitting of picks, getting 2 lower picks compared to one higher one is thinking you can win a premiership with those 2 B+ players than perhaps one A player. getting to premiership level is long way ahead.

That's not really how it works, though. Any of those picks could be anywhere between A-graders or busts.

I'm making these numbers up as an example, but we'd be more likely to get at least one A-grader by taking 2 players with 30% chance of becoming one than 1 player with a 40% chance.

 

[burger09]

Cross your fingers everyone.

Picks between 4 and 15 look like a lottery ticket. Please be a Bont, Oliver not a Billings, Dow.

 

[KeeperLeaguer]

That's not really how it works, though. Any of those picks could be anywhere between A-graders or busts.

I'm making these numbers up as an example, but we'd be more likely to get at least one A-grader by taking 2 players with 30% chance of becoming one than 1 player with a 40% chance.

Keeping pick 6 gives us more like an 80% chance of an A-grader considering who'll be available so why risk that for two picks outside the top ten?

 

[Hawk the Talk]

It’s so open between picks 2-10!
I’m honestly excited about almost every player linked to us… cannot understand anyone melting over who we pick.

 

[Since 2001]

If pou aint there at 6, im happy for us to trade back to the saints pick, gain extra draft capital, hope mackenzie gets there

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

My uneducated read on the situation now is this:

If Phillipou or Humphrey are available we will pick them. If both are available then not sure which way we go.

If both Phillipou and Humphrey are off the board then we will either trade down with St.Kilda or take Mackenzie.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

My uneducated read on the situation now is this:

If Phillipou or Humphrey are available we will pick them. If both are available then not sure which way we go.

If both Phillipou and Humphrey are off the board then we will either trade down with St.Kilda or take Mackenzie.

Reasonable read on the situation that.

 

[TylerDurden]

My read is Cam McKenzie could be a smokescreen. No way we're leaking that if legit.

I'm certain Dons have locked in Poo.

We cannot pass on Tsatas.

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

My read is Cam McKenzie could be a smokescreen. No way we're leaking that if legit.

I'm certain Dons have locked in Poo.

We cannot pass on Tsatas.

We are so going to take Ed Allan.

I can just see it.

 

[2008wasoverDEW!]

I'm genuinely surprised by how much Tsatas is apparently slipping without having kicked a ball.
At the end of the football season he was still firmly considered a top 3/4 option. Even a dream scenario if he somehow slipped through to our pick!
What has changed? Genuinely curious.

 

[daniel23]

I'm genuinely surprised by how much Tsatas is apparently slipping without having kicked a ball.
At the end of the football season he was still firmly considered a top 3/4 option. Even a dream scenario if he somehow slipped through to our pick!
What has changed? Genuinely curious.

Inside production, lack of defensive game, poor combine testing could all be reasons.

 

[Crawfo]

Inside production, lack of defensive game, poor combine testing could all be reasons.

+ His interviews?

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

I'm genuinely surprised by how much Tsatas is apparently slipping without having kicked a ball.
At the end of the football season he was still firmly considered a top 3/4 option. Even a dream scenario if he somehow slipped through to our pick!
What has changed? Genuinely curious.

Most club recruiters come to this thread for all their draft intel and they make recruiting decisions based purely on what is written in here.

As a collective we have talked Tsatas all the way to the rookie draft.

 

[2008wasoverDEW!]

Inside production, lack of defensive game, poor combine testing could all be reasons.

It was said that his poor combine testing was as a result of being hampered by his foot injury.
His defensive side can use work no doubt, but that can be improved in the system.
Whereas his attacking game is a weapon that our midfield could do with.

 

[H00t]

Inside production, lack of defensive game, poor combine testing could all be reasons.

I don’t think it would be inside production. I’m pretty sure he is a very good clearance player.

His foot injury could be a reason though. Depends on how he’s gone passing any medicals.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Final order of preference...

1. Humphrey (match winner)
2. Mackenzie (everything we need in a midfielder)
3. Tsatas (will still be a gun)
4. Phillipou (High upside. Medium to high risk pick up)
5. Clark (Character)
6. Allen (huge risk. But massive upside)
7. Ginbey (Not enough weapons for a selection as high as ours. Could end up being a great back flanker and not the elite mid we need).

8. Rumoured trade with Melbourne (I'll be ropeable. My son's toys are in danger)

 

[H00t]

Keeping pick 6 gives us more like an 80% chance of an A-grader considering who'll be available so why risk that for two picks outside the top ten?

This is a pretty optimistic take. Even pick 1 in a draft doesn’t have this high a chance being an A-grader.

First you have to hope they make it at AFL level then go on to be a star.

Most players look like a star at underage level.

The draft is the best way to get talent in for mine. But there’s also a ton of misses at every pick in the draft.

Which is why I’m happy to trade down in this pretty open draft if someone offers up some good picks for next year.

 

[A1fromDay1]

Imagine this is how MM's conversation went with Cam.

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

I think we do noteven know who we will get at this stage. We have our no#1 choice and rankings, but alot depends on those above us.

 

[Bugs1977]

I think we do noteven know who we will get at this stage. We have our no#1 choice and rankings, but alot depends on those above us.

It’s called a draft board mate. MM and co would have a list of about 10 or so players ranked who’d they take numerically. When it comes time to pick the highest remaining kid will be who’ll we pick obviously outside of a crazy a$$ offer to trade back. The night can’t come soon enough IMO.