List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

[Keys]

Link to contract status of all players

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

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Link to Lore ’s excellent draft order thread that is updated to reflect current ladder positions

Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

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[SumaGodCoach]

I'm probably more optimistic than you - here is my perspective:

Games we are likely to win:
Suns home
Hawks away
Bombers home
North home
Dockers home (nearly beat them with no bench - we'll be out for blood and will thrash them next time)


50/50 games
Cats away (assuming their poor form holds)
Port away (assuming their poor form holds)
Tigers away (Lynch is injured and they have poor form)
Pies home (we seem to be their bogey side at the moment)
Dogs away (assuming their poor form continues)
Crows home (this is a dead rubber rnd 23 game)

If we assume we win 80% of our likely games and 40% of our 50/50 - that's another 6-7 wins. It feels right that we'll get 6-8 wins for the year based on our current effort and results. With a bit more luck we'd already have another 1 or 2 under our belt.

I admire your optimism but it seems as though you are looking at our fixture whilst wearing rose coloured glasses. Your "games we are likely to win" category are 50/50 games and we will go in as rank outsiders for the games in your "50/50" category. I see our ceiling as 6 wins if everything goes right, but we have already been flogged by injuries.

 

[Spooky17]

You see Hawthorn this year. That’s the Eagles in 2025.

The only difference is you’re not trading out the veterans to play the kids, because they’re all retiring.

Well below your normal standard.

Hawks absolutely gutted their list, traded or retired many of their aging stars. Very young and unbalanced list.

We have an awkward balance where we now have some quality youth and some older stars, with not much in the middle.

A couple years into Hough, Bazzo, Ginbey, Hewett, Culley, Longy, et al, and we will slowly build a list that could compete for finals.

We are not rebuilding anything like Hawthorn.

 

[EagleEgo]

Walsh wasn't sacked for performance reasons.

When a coach is replaced, it's rarely because there has been a murder so it's slightly deceptive to use pyke as an example. The club may have been progressing fine internally and pyke simply maintained the trajectory.

I dont quite understand your reasoning.
I have not said Walsh was sacked for performance.
Why Adelaide changed the coach in 2014 was (I guess) because Adelaide was not happy with being outside the top 8.
Sadly, the club had to deal with the tragic event after 13 round into the new coach season. Then getting the minor premiership in 2017 is an archievement!
My point is more on the methodology (or concept) of handling the rebuild and not the personel!

 

[the harry]

I dont quite understand your reasoning.
I have not said Walsh was sacked for performance.
Why Adelaide changed the coach in 2014 was (I guess) because Adelaide was not happy with being outside the top 8.
Sadly, the club had to deal with the tragic event after 13 round into the new coach season. Then getting the minor premiership in 2017 is an archievement!
My point is more on the methodology (or concept) of handling the rebuild and not the personel!

You'd said "Don Pyke took a year in 2017 to get their second minor premiership" but he'd taken over a club that had won a final in 2015. I don't think that's a good example of a rebuild that is easily replicated.

The same with the crowbots of 2004, they made the pre lim in 2002.

I think their philosophies on rebuilding are for when the list is there and substantially underachieving. That situation doesn't apply to us.

 

[EagleEgo]

You'd said "Don Pyke took a year in 2017 to get their second minor premiership" but he'd taken over a club that had won a final in 2015. I don't think that's a good example of a rebuild that is easily replicated.

The same with the crowbots of 2004, they made the pre lim in 2002.

I think their philosophies on rebuilding are for when the list is there and substantially underachieving. That situation doesn't apply to us.

True. The emotional factor of 2015 could impact either way on Adelaide.
If it was on the right track, Adelaide would not have recruited Pyke as the new coach. (Camporeale would have been the one)
However, I stress again that my point was on methods of rebuild and not personel executing the method of rebuild.

 

[Keys]

Because our form will fluctuate the W/L column will be dependent on how our good and bad days line up with our particular opponent on the day

For example, we had a winnable game in R1 against North but played badly and lost as a result

Then yesterday, we played well enough to beat sides around our level but were outclassed by a better side

If we keep putting in subpar games against lower ranked teams and keep our better efforts for the best sides, we aren’t going to get many wins

However, if we play like we did yesterday against bottom half clubs we’ll get our fair share of wins

 

[dinnaz]

So just catching up- if Hawthorn win today our rebuild will be in tatters, and if they lose their rebuild will be traveling better than ours?

 

[Obeanie1]

There are a number of Forwards that go Mid in this upcoming draft as opposed to last year where most of the top end were just pure mids.

Zane Duursma, Aston Moir, Tholstrup, Darcy Wilson, Nate Caddy, Harley Reid and Colby McKercher are all probably going first round and all can play mid but play just as well forward and hit the scoreboard.
Personally think it’s a strong draft when you have those blokes plus a heap of Rucks and Tall key position players to add to the mix.

With Curtin put aside as the obvious tall we should be interested in and if we can somehow land a 2nd 1st rounder by trading our 2024 1st and get say pick 8 plus a F2nd. For where we are at Im thinkin;g

Moir pick 2 and
Caddy at say pick 8

Both mid forwards, Moir a 186cm goal kicker like Rochelle and Caddy a bigger bodied 191 cm half forward / mid.

Moir is all class, Caddy also skillful but with a harder edge. Moir and Hewett would be a nice rotation forward. Caddy and Culley another bigger, taller HFF rotation.

 

[Godfather32]

So just catching up- if Hawthorn win today our rebuild will be in tatters, and if they lose their rebuild will be traveling better than ours?

Our rebuild is currently down 12-0

 

[Monsterdarlz]

Sorry there’s no faith in the leaders on field at the moment… they are the ones who allowed the standards to slip, the players to become lazy and unfit, choose when to put effort in or not during games and helped make the club irrelevant…. They aren’t who you should be holding up as good senior leadership

Well done you completely missed my point

 

[CountryLad]

With Curtin put aside as the obvious tall we should be interested in and if we can somehow land a 2nd 1st rounder by trading our 2024 1st and get say pick 8 plus a F2nd. For where we are at Im thinkin;g

Moir pick 2 and
Caddy at say pick 8

Both mid forwards, Moir a 186cm goal kicker like Rochelle and Caddy a bigger bodied 191 cm half forward / mid.

Moir is all class, Caddy also skillful but with a harder edge. Moir and Hewett would be a nice rotation forward. Caddy and Culley another bigger, taller HFF rotation.

Hard to speculate on draft trades ect right now it’s still to early.
Caddy is currently playing deep forward in Nab as more of a key forward rather than half forward and hasn’t gone to the midfield yet. Not sure what the injury was but think he’s had an interrupted pre season he missed the first game.

 

[Cuzz09]

I think we will probably be bottom by the mid season draft mainly due to everyone's fixture.

That's fine

Who is the best midfielder, Defender, forward and ruck going around available in non AFL leagues right now??

with pick 1 we'd have first crack...again

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[Cuzz09]

Will we beat Hawthorn?
They are more than matching reigning hungover premier.

nope.

not in Tasmania

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[dinnaz]

Will we beat Hawthorn?
They are more than matching reigning hungover premier.

Away game: So no

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

That‘s the problem of wiki. It can be edited by almost all readers.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Will we beat Hawthorn?
They are more than matching reigning hungover premier.

This aged as well as your predictions of mass global events.

 

[Jumpoff Joey]

I would take Harley Reid every day of the week.

If you built right you go something like B4, B4, B4, B4, 9th-13th, top 4.

I would be disappointed to be B4 for five years in a row. It will be a long road but I hope we improve a little quicker than you estimate.

2023 - B4
24 - B4
25 - 9/13th
26 - Finals
28/29 Top 4

 

[Cuzz09]

I would be disappointed to be B4 for five years in a row. It will be a long road but I hope we improve a little quicker than you estimate.

2023 - B4
24 - B4
25 - 9/13th
26 - Finals
28/29 Top 4

100% seems like perfect rebuild timing.

The key is win a flag when you're up there or there's another decade wait

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[AsterixTheGaul]

Hope it’s ok I posted here. Just with English if he does decide to return to WA, he’ll be a restricted free agent and I think it’s a near certainty we’ll say we’ll match to force a trade of multiple picks similar to what happened with Jeremy Cameron.

2024 we could be offering a 5 year contract with $2 mln in year 1 and $500k for the late 4 seasons. For an average of $800k. Can you restructure over a weekend a challenge like that to fit match the salary?

I would be making sure we are into Naughton to pump up his price.

Lots of games to be played in that space

 

[Cuzz09]

Dunno about English.

Reckon we build the midfield to over the top levels and get bang em up rucks for a bit.

Not fussed with rucks.

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[Chump Change]

I would be disappointed to be B4 for five years in a row. It will be a long road but I hope we improve a little quicker than you estimate.

2023 - B4
24 - B4
25 - 9/13th
26 - Finals
28/29 Top 4

Except I had 4 year B4. Already had one, this year is almost certain, then maybe 2 more years. What you have and I have is pretty similar.

 

[Cuzz09]

Bottom 4
Bottom 4
9-13
9-13
finals
finals
top 4
top 4
top 4
(flag somewhere in there)

fade away (9-13, finals for a few years and start rebuild again)

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[briztoon]

Briz. I think we get your point of view on this mate.

No need to keep repeating it over and over especially when its nothing more than a guess on what may happen over the next two or three drafts and trade periods.

You often put a disclaimer in your statements about free agents and trades. Opposition sides also get older and start dropping away.

Happy for you to keep posting on our board but continually repeating yourself on our clubs demise, crap list and doubting its ability to rebuild is starting to wear thin tbh.

By 2025 the club will have addressed our current ruck weakness. Spent three drafts and trade periods replenishing with youth in top 30 picks including several top 10. Hopefully we also pick up some quality depth with fringe players who dont cost picks under 30. Your boy Dev who still isnt getting much opportunity will hopefully be the first. WA Tyler Brockman with twins under 1 is also a quality 21 year old who is showing plenty who could be tempted to move home similar to Kelly but wont cost the earth at the end of this year.

Im hoping for a Don Pike, Dean Cox coaching team to come in at the end of 2024 and they possibly will bring some Swans WA talent with them, Sheldrick and Warner Jnr for example.

This draft is a deep one with several quality WA kids who will fall outside the top 30. Academy kids at other clubs will take picks and list spots leaving others to slide. Gold Coast especially. Several father sons will take spots and picks not on WA talent.

So plenty going on. And no one knows where we will be in 3 years. But Id bet a body part we will be futher ahead in 2025 than the Hawks are today.

Cheers, Obeanie1. Just trying to reply to posters who quoted me, wasn’t meaning to repeat things ad nauseam.

I definitely don’t doubt WCE ability to rebuild.

And I’ve never said or meant WCE have a crap list.

The only thing I’ve really tried to question is the often repeated line, which goes something like, “WCE always rebuilds fast and don’t spend more than 5 years out of finals, because that’s how our rebuilds have gone in the past”.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

So back to what we know. I have us now holding the following draft picks: -
3
21
27 (PR2)
40
46
59

It was a bad miss by Florent after the siren and cost us 5 ladders spots. A goal by the Swans and we would have had holding consecutive picks at R2 and R3.

In terms of battle of the early picks, Hawks look cemented to pick 1 with Sunday 21st May at Launceston will have a major bearing on that. The only game I see us possibly winning before that is the Suns Friday night game the week before.

I can see us at 2 wins from 13 games at the bye until we get reinforcements back after the bye.

After the bye, will St Blunders implode (again) in the second half? What sort of list management sermon will Briztoon deliver for us after a visit to the Gabba? Can we get the better of Norf in late July? I think the better agencies would have us clear underdogs for all but 1 game in post bye.

I do hope Norf go on a run of wins. Their ladder position carries 2 picks in R2 and R3 and Freo hold their 2 compo picks so good to be picking before them. Norf have the Suns away in R6, St Blunder in R8 and R22, Drug Rats in R12, Giants at home in R13, Hawks at Marvel in R18. So 7 games they have a semi decent chance of winning if you include us at Optus.

 

[briztoon]

So back to what we know. I have us now holding the following draft picks: -
3
21
27 (PR2)
40
46
59

It was a bad miss by Florent after the siren and cost us 5 ladders spots. A goal by the Swans and we would have had holding consecutive picks at R2 and R3.

In terms of battle of the early picks, Hawks look cemented to pick 1 with Sunday 21st May at Launceston will have a major bearing on that. The only game I see us possibly winning before that is the Suns Friday night game the week before.

I can see us at 2 wins from 13 games at the bye until we get reinforcements back after the bye.

After the bye, will St Blunders implode (again) in the second half? What sort of list management sermon will Briztoon deliver for us after a visit to the Gabba? Can we get the better of Norf in late July? I think the better agencies would have us clear underdogs for all but 1 game in post bye.

I do hope Norf go on a run of wins. Their ladder position carries 2 picks in R2 and R3 and Freo hold their 2 compo picks so good to be picking before them. Norf have the Suns away in R6, St Blunder in R8 and R22, Drug Rats in R12, Giants at home in R13, Hawks at Marvel in R18. So 7 games they have a semi decent chance of winning if you include us at Optus.

No more sermons from me. I’m most keen on the which kid at which pick, discussions from now on. And should we or shouldn’t we split pick 1, if we land it.

That, and watching discussions morph, as draft boards change through the season.