List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

[Keys]

Link to contract status of all players

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

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Link to Lore ’s excellent draft order thread that is updated to reflect current ladder positions

Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

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[Avalor]

I feel like Adelaides rebuild is the way to go .

Load up the attack and midfield

So exciting now and pretty much always competitive despite being fairly easy to score against.

If you can't kick goals you aren't going anywhere.

We've got a good start with Oscar and co but we're gonna need some extras over the next couple of years along with stacking the midfield.

It sucks its going to take so many years but if we're attacking it makes it exciting.

I remember the Malthouse years being ultra defensive and while it was great to win I remember SO many games example 9-11 goals to 5-6 in perfect conditions

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Yep, would love to have a Rachelle or Rankine to complement Ryan. Tholstrup maybe, in the upcoming draft.

 

[Chump Change]

Didn’t Freo have a big crack at Gov for his last contract forcing him to be the highest paid player in the game?


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Dunno. I remember there being rumours in the media but it never eventuated. At least I don't think Freo ever confirmed it.

 

[Dugg]

Pretty sure we have a tacit "hands off our stars" mutually beneficial agreement with Freo. The last thing either clubs wants is to be constantly worried about the rival down the road stealing players, pushing up contract values etc. Bother teams lose if it gets to that.

I feel like this 'agreement' died when the man with a feather in his cap started down the road

 

[EagleEgo]

I feel like Adelaides rebuild is the way to go .

Load up the attack and midfield

So exciting now and pretty much always competitive despite being fairly easy to score against.

If you can't kick goals you aren't going anywhere.

We've got a good start with Oscar and co but we're gonna need some extras over the next couple of years along with stacking the midfield.

It sucks its going to take so many years but if we're attacking it makes it exciting.

I remember the Malthouse years being ultra defensive and while it was great to win I remember SO many games example 9-11 goals to 5-6 in perfect conditions

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Probably, we should get Neil Criag and Don Pyke to present their concept of "rebuild without going to the bottom". Neil Criag (Don Pyke as assistant) took less than a year to jump to their 1st minor premiership in 2005 while Don Pyke took a year in 2017 to get their second minor premiership. (Though neither eventuated into a flag).

 

[the harry]

Probably, we should get Neil Criag and Don Pyke to present their concept of "rebuild without going to the bottom". Neil Criag (Don Pyke as assistant) took less than a year to jump to their 1st minor premiership in 2005 while Don Pyke took a year in 2017 to get their second minor premiership. (Though either eventuated into a flag).

Crows made a pre lim in 2002 before Craig took over in 04 with largely the same core. While Pyke was hired when the vacancy came up due to incredibly sad Walsh situation, not because the club wasn't doing well.

 

[Chump Change]

I feel like this 'agreement' died when the man with a feather in his cap started down the road

I assume you're talking about Peter Bell-End. Hopefully we can see him out. The last thing we want is tit for tat which results in bidding wars and puts both clubs at a disadvantage to the other 16 clubs.

 

[SumaGodCoach]

Figured I'd do a ladder predictor on a regular basis to see where the draft picks might land come the end of the season. This is not meant to be an exercise in calling me a campaigner for having a team finishing way higher or lower than you expect they will. I've tried to be as unbiased as possible, picking the betting favourites in most games, with only a few home vs away upsets sprinkled in. In this predictor there is a logjam of teams in the middle of the ladder where 1 extra win or loss and even a slight change in % could dramatically alter the draft order, especially when Richmond and Port(teams that have traded away this years 1st) are in said logjam.

		W	L	D	%
1.	Melbourne	19	4	0	120.6%
2.	Carlton	16	6	1	107.6%
3.	Collingwood	16	7	0	111.1%
4.	Sydney	15	8	0	111.1%
5.	St Kilda	15	8	0	110.6%
6.	Brisbane Lions	15	8	0	104.0%
7.	Geelong	13	10	0	103.8%
8.	Adelaide	13	10	0	102.6%
9.	Richmond	12	10	1	102.6%
10.	Fremantle	12	11	0	99.2%
11.	Port Adelaide	12	11	0	99.1%
12.	Western Bulldogs	12	11	0	96.5%
13.	Essendon	10	13	0	100.2%
14.	North Melbourne	8	15	0	91.3%
15.	GWS	6	17	0	91.8%
16.	Gold Coast	5	18	0	88.5%
17.	West Coast	4	19	0	84.6%
18.	Hawthorn	3	20	0	83.1%

West Coast end up with 2, 20, 27, 39, 46 and 58.

Gold Coast end up with pick 3 and this puts them in an awkward position with their need to match a bid on Jed Walter. I cannot see Gold Coast trading pick 3 for a pick and mix of 2nd and 3rd rounders, especially when they already hold so many picks. There is potential here that we could trade our 2024 1st for it. I value pick 3 this year over our future 1st and it might be the best offer that GC can get, given our expected finish in 2024. Take Curtin and Moir with picks 2 and 3, forward line sorted? We need to finish below Gold Coast if we want to hold the threat of bidding on Walter over their heads.

GWS end up with picks 4 and 10(via Richmond). GWS traded 3 and 12 this year for pick 1 after Aaron Cadman told them that he was not a flight risk. GWS could consider trading 4 and 10 for our pick 2 if a similar situation arises. Take Archer Reid(or Duursma) at 4 and Tholstrup at 10, forward line sorted? Its even possible that we could get Curtin at 4 if he pulls the whole go-home factor thing.

North end up with picks 5 and 9(via Port). They could consider trading up to 2 but I feel that this is far less likely than GWS doing it.

WB end up with picks 7 and 13(via Brisbane). Trading pick 2 for 7 and 13 seems a little thin, although we did trade 2 for 8 and 12 this year. However, top end talent like Curtin and Moir make it far less likely that we would do something like that this year.

Melbourne end up with picks 9(via Freo) and 18. I don't see an opportunity here as 9 and 18 comes no where close to the value of pick 2.

Purely in terms of draft positioning it seems that we are in the same group as Hawthorn, Gold Coast and GWS. Those teams winning games is good for us so put on your Hawks, Suns and Giants scarves and cheer them on.

 

[CountryLad]

Probably, we should get Neil Criag and Don Pyke to present their concept of "rebuild without going to the bottom". Neil Criag (Don Pyke as assistant) took less than a year to jump to their 1st minor premiership in 2005 while Don Pyke took a year in 2017 to get their second minor premiership. (Though either eventuated into a flag).

Don Pyke has a very good record as a coach and assistant he just had one really bad preseason.

 

[Chump Change]

Crows made a pre lim in 2002 before Craig took over in 04 with largely the same core. While Pyke was hired when the vacancy came up due to incredibly sad Walsh situation, not because the club wasn't doing well.

Neither won the flag anyway. It can be done. Geelong did it last year, Swans 2012. Collingwood may do it this year. But where we're at with players who are busted up, we need to rebuild through the draft. Do it properly and build a team that can go the distance.

 

[Chump Change]

Don Pyke has a very good record as a coach and assistant he just had one really bad preseason.

I think he had an exceptionally bad 2 weeks.

 

[EagleEgo]

Crows made a pre lim in 2002 before Craig took over in 04 with largely the same core. While Pyke was hired when the vacancy came up due to incredibly sad Walsh situation, not because the club wasn't doing well.

Depends on what you mean by "not doing well". All AFL clubs need to spend a minimium of their salary cap and their player lists are quite comparable. To me, teams that fail to make the top 8 are below average and are not doing well.

 

[CountryLad]

Figured I'd do a ladder predictor on a regular basis to see where the draft picks might land come the end of the season. This is not meant to be an exercise in calling me a campaigner for having a team finishing way higher or lower than you expect they will. I've tried to be as unbiased as possible, picking the betting favourites in most games, with only a few home vs away upsets sprinkled in. In this predictor there is a logjam of teams in the middle of the ladder where 1 extra win or loss and even a slight change in % could dramatically alter the draft order, especially when Richmond and Port(teams that have traded away this years 1st) are in said logjam.

		W	L	D	%
1.	Melbourne	19	4	0	120.6%
2.	Carlton	16	6	1	107.6%
3.	Collingwood	16	7	0	111.1%
4.	Sydney	15	8	0	111.1%
5.	St Kilda	15	8	0	110.6%
6.	Brisbane Lions	15	8	0	104.0%
7.	Geelong	13	10	0	103.8%
8.	Adelaide	13	10	0	102.6%
9.	Richmond	12	10	1	102.6%
10.	Fremantle	12	11	0	99.2%
11.	Port Adelaide	12	11	0	99.1%
12.	Western Bulldogs	12	11	0	96.5%
13.	Essendon	10	13	0	100.2%
14.	North Melbourne	8	15	0	91.3%
15.	GWS	6	17	0	91.8%
16.	Gold Coast	5	18	0	88.5%
17.	West Coast	4	19	0	84.6%
18.	Hawthorn	3	20	0	83.1%

West Coast end up with 2, 20, 27, 39, 46 and 58.

Gold Coast end up with pick 3 and this puts them in an awkward position with their need to match a bid on Jed Walter. I cannot see Gold Coast trading pick 3 for a pick and mix of 2nd and 3rd rounders, especially when they already hold so many picks. There is potential here that we could trade our 2024 1st for it. I value pick 3 this year over our future 1st and it might be the best offer that GC can get, given our expected finish in 2024. Take Curtin and Moir with picks 2 and 3, forward line sorted? We need to finish below Gold Coast if we want to hold the threat of bidding on Walter over their heads.

GWS end up with picks 4 and 10(via Richmond). GWS traded 3 and 12 this year for pick 1 after Aaron Cadman told them that he was not a flight risk. GWS could consider trading 4 and 10 for our pick 2 if a similar situation arises. Take Archer Reid(or Duursma) at 4 and Tholstrup at 10, forward line sorted? Its even possible that we could get Curtin at 4 if he pulls the whole go-home factor thing.

North end up with picks 5 and 9(via Port). They could consider trading up to 2 but I feel that this is far less likely than GWS doing it.

WB end up with picks 7 and 13(via Brisbane). Trading pick 2 for 7 and 13 seems a little thin, although we did trade 2 for 8 and 12 this year. However, top end talent like Curtin and Moir make it far less likely that we would do something like that this year.

Melbourne end up with picks 9(via Freo) and 18. I don't see an opportunity here as 9 and 18 comes no where close to the value of pick 2.

Purely in terms of draft positioning it seems that we are in the same group as Hawthorn, Gold Coast and GWS. Those teams winning games is good for us so put on your Hawks, Suns and Giants scarves and cheer them on.

So much to speculate on there. Good fun though.
Out of interest who did you have us beating to get the extra 3 wins?

 

[Chump Change]

So much to speculate on there. Good fun though.
Out of interest who did you have us beating to get the extra 3 wins?

Unfortunately there's options.

R9 Suns at home
R11 Bombers at home
R18 Tigers at home
R18 North at home
R22 Dockers at home

I think Suns will come good. The problem we have is that home ground advantage.

 

[SumaGodCoach]

So much to speculate on there. Good fun though.
Out of interest who did you have us beating to get the extra 3 wins?

Essendon, North and Gold Coast at home.

 

[Get_The_Gaff]

2023 mid season draft is on the 4th May (a month earlier than 2022) and is only a month away. After Round 4, we are bottom 3 and we will almost certain to have a good pick. With so many injuries, who will be the potential one(s) for the WCE?

Maybe we target a small forward in the MSD ?

Rioli gonski
Cripps pretty much done for the season
Ryan out for half a season
Petrecelle? Can't even get a game
Long will need to be managed

Cupboard is pretty bare

 

[CountryLad]

Yep, would love to have a Rachelle or Rankine to complement Ryan. Tholstrup maybe, in the upcoming draft.

There are a number of Forwards that go Mid in this upcoming draft as opposed to last year where most of the top end were just pure mids.

Zane Duursma, Aston Moir, Tholstrup, Darcy Wilson, Nate Caddy, Harley Reid and Colby McKercher are all probably going first round and all can play mid but play just as well forward and hit the scoreboard.
Personally think it’s a strong draft when you have those blokes plus a heap of Rucks and Tall key position players to add to the mix.

 

[Chump Change]

Maybe we target a small forward in the MSD ?

Rioli gonski
Cripps pretty much done for the season
Ryan out for half a season
Petrecelle? Can't even get a game
Long will need to be managed

Cupboard is pretty bare

If we keep targeting best available over the next 3 drafts, a small forward who can play will come. If not, we trade in a ready made one once we're pushing top 4.

 

[Keys]

A less reliable source - wikipedia mentions the date 4th May 2023.

2023 AFL draft - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The MSD is after R11 because R12 is the first of the bye rounds and the ladder gets wonky due to teams playing differing numbers of games

May 31 is the Wednesday after R11

I’m 99% certain that Wikipedia date is wrong

 

[EagleEgo]

The MSD is after R11 because R12 is the first of the bye rounds and the ladder gets wonky due to teams playing differing numbers of games

May 31 is the Wednesday after R11

I’m 99% certain that Wikipedia date is wrong

That‘s the problem of wiki. It can be edited by almost all readers.

 

[TerryFilk]

I've seen zero of him but how much is being more physically developed than others compared to transferably good at football?

Whilst that’s definitely the case with some draftees, it’s not with Harley imo, he’s so skilled and versatile, it’s incredible. The way he moves and how clean he is will make you drool

Go back and watch the state championship game last year, he was an underager, dominating the game off half back / midfield and then even got moved up to the forward goal square and took a few excellent marks and kicked multiple crucial goals

 

[the harry]

Depends on what you mean by "not doing well". All AFL clubs need to spend a minimium of their salary cap and their player lists are quite comparable. To me, teams that fail to make the top 8 are below average and are not doing well.

Walsh wasn't sacked for performance reasons.

When a coach is replaced, it's rarely because there has been a murder so it's slightly deceptive to use pyke as an example. The club may have been progressing fine internally and pyke simply maintained the trajectory.

 

[VicBased]

Neither won the flag anyway. It can be done. Geelong did it last year, Swans 2012. Collingwood may do it this year. But where we're at with players who are busted up, we need to rebuild through the draft. Do it properly and build a team that can go the distance.

We need a team that can go back to back or, if possible a triple dynasty. I am willing to wait

 

[WCE_phil]

Whilst that’s definitely the case with some draftees, it’s not with Harley imo, he’s so skilled and versatile, it’s incredible. The way he moves and how clean he is will make you drool

Go back and watch the state championship game last year, he was an underager, dominating the game off half back / midfield and then even got moved up to the forward goal square and took a few excellent marks and kicked multiple crucial goals

Harley Reid is a very special talent however even at the champs last year, he was still stronger than most of the overagers he played against. He could literally play the next 4 round and then be injured for the rest of the year and likely still go at pick 1.

The other huge thing is that players who have huge wraps on them tend to have an overexposure effect where recruiters and scouts have already seen the best of a player and then start to have a focus on the negatives. Tholstrup having been exposed as a top WA talent for years could be in this bracket particularly if he doesn't absolutely light up the champs as he will likely play league most of the year.

I explained this last year and it is the same every year. You basically have 3 stages of the draft year and how the order changes. You have form leading up to the champs placing players in rough rankings (by the end of the year this is mostly meaningless), Then you have the champs up until the combine and this leads to a large amount of real rankings and where players look like sitting. However from this point until the draft as much changes from there until the draft actually happens.

Talls have to have exceptional final draft years to go top 3, particularly in a group with a strong top end. If they have good but not great years they tend to slide. The mids in the draft slowly come to the fore and the types who played half forward in their junior year but then transition to the midfield and do well shoot up the draft board while the ones that project and stay more as medium sized forwards slide. Then you have distinct club needs which once you pass the first few picks have a large part in determining who goes where and that clubs rankings.

I also think you will find in the next few drafts clubs will have noticed that run and skills from half back are key components of driving their teams forward. So HB's who read the play well, are good overhead and have a combination of good skills and pace are going to potentially be overrated by clubs. I'm still firmly of the belief that almost any good half forward can be developed into a very, very good half back as long as they have the athletic profile.

Even though I firmly think we will finish bottom 2-3 next year I would happily trade our 2024 first round pick for GC's this year as long as that pick is no lower than pick 8. If we finish bottom 2 (likely), can get an extra pick in the pick 6-10 area and then upgrade our 2 second rounders for a pick between 15-20 I would be ecstatic. There will be AFL quality roleplayers available in this draft with later picks for our third rounders. This would give us the opportunity to bank a star mid talent, a star tall talent and a star HF talent.

Of our younger players and i'm really extending this age wise but out there the only one who I see as a competition leading player is Oscar Allen. Hewett with the right attitude and development could become the second but I firmly believe you really need 2-3 top tier in the league players to win a premiership and a guy who has, is or has the ability to be AA on every line. You then also need depth. We aren't winning a premiership without 30 ready to go AFL level players.

Discounting the club basically getting first dibs on the greatest ever junior WA side and then pioneering the draft formula for our first 2 premierships look at the years we drafted (and the players we traded for were originally drafted) the keys players for our 3rd and 4th premierships and then the years we won those premierships. We aren't going to bottom out now and have a 2015 type season in 2026 as we won't have the senior stars from the past still there. Even if you look at that 2015 season guys like Nicnat, Shuey, Cripps, Mcgovern, Gaff, Darling, Sheppard, Masten were all drafted between 2007-2010 and the core older players were from from 2004-2006 drafts. Then go and do the 2018 grand final team and you will see the same thing. Almost all your core best 22 and star players are between the ages of 23-28. 5 years from Now Oscar Allen will be 29 and likely at the peak of his powers. That is the start of our window if everything goes right imo.

 

[Rowan18]

Unfortunately there's options.

R9 Suns at home
R11 Bombers at home
R18 Tigers at home
R18 North at home
R22 Dockers at home

I think Suns will come good. The problem we have is that home ground advantage.

I'm probably more optimistic than you - here is my perspective:

Games we are likely to win:
Suns home
Hawks away
Bombers home
North home
Dockers home (nearly beat them with no bench - we'll be out for blood and will thrash them next time)


50/50 games
Cats away (assuming their poor form holds)
Port away (assuming their poor form holds)
Tigers away (Lynch is injured and they have poor form)
Pies home (we seem to be their bogey side at the moment)
Dogs away (assuming their poor form continues)
Crows home (this is a dead rubber rnd 23 game)

If we assume we win 80% of our likely games and 40% of our 50/50 - that's another 6-7 wins. It feels right that we'll get 6-8 wins for the year based on our current effort and results. With a bit more luck we'd already have another 1 or 2 under our belt.

 

[Chump Change]

I'm probably more optimistic than you - here is my perspective:

Games we are likely to win:
Suns home
Hawks away
Bombers home
North home
Dockers home (nearly beat them with no bench - we'll be out for blood and will thrash them next time)


50/50 games
Cats away (assuming their poor form holds)
Port away (assuming their poor form holds)
Tigers away (Lynch is injured and they have poor form)
Pies home (we seem to be their bogey side at the moment)
Dogs away (assuming their poor form continues)
Crows home (this is a dead rubber rnd 23 game)

If we assume we win 80% of our likely games and 40% of our 50/50 - that's another 6-7 wins. It feels right that we'll get 6-8 wins for the year based on our current effort and results. With a bit more luck we'd already have another 1 or 2 under our belt.

Not sure about Hawks in Tas. I'm assuming it's going to be super hard to win there, not matter how bad the opposition are.

When I look at the last 2 weeks - we could definitely win 6 or 7 games this year. But I still think we're more likely to be bottom 2. Hawks, Eagles, Giants, and out of Suns/Freo for bottom 4 for me. Just above them North, Essendon, Geelong, and Bulldogs.