Review 2023 National Draft Review Thread II [McKercher, Z.Duursma, Goad, W.Dawson, Hardeman, Maley]

[perplexed]

I hear what you're saying but this time last year we thought Sheez was a medium forward who'd gathered quite a bit of the pill on the few occassions he ventured into the mids. Good players will find it and use it well wherever they are. Personally I'm not sold on him, but if not Reid I want McKercher and whoever else at that early pick out of Sanders, Curtin, Duursma, and Watson is fine with me. Brady nose best.

I think that I view list balance as more important than most here. To me, our list is woefully imbalanced at the moment and we are unlikely to fix that by picking up talls late in the draft or as dfa's. We need quality talls, and our best chance of getting them is early in this draft. As I see it, even if Duursma is a little better than Curtin, Caddy and O'Sullivan, drafting him would improve our list and long-term best 22 by less. Basically, even if Duursma is a 9/10 he displaces someone like George, Ford or Curtis who might be a 6 or 7. Say Curtin is an 8, but he would be displacing guys like Dawson or Pink, who are only 3 or 4. If rather than Duursma we can draft two of those talls, our list would be much stronger.

 

[giantroo]

GETTABLE: It's MOCK DRAFT time, Dons targets, the top-10 shaper, latest whispers

Riley Beveridge and Cal Twomey are joined by Kevin 'Shifter' Sheehan and answer your draft questions

www.afl.com.au

 

[The Dingrel]

Brady has been on record saying that our top 4 is pretty set, so despite some on this board thinking it’s pretty even, I don’t think he sees it that way.

And said that quite some time ago....(perhaps even pre-dating Duursma's turn of form?).

 

[VicBased]

It is a poke in the eye considering you have 5-6 spent / burnt out over 30 players with Shuey & NicNat already gone ….
A team that’s hoping for a quick rebuild with less than patient , Flag every year expecting supporters …
Simmo is on a hiding to nothing there .
Prediction: first coach to be sacked in 2024

So you will be looking forward to playing us then?

 

[Heaps of fun]

Because we’re not precious and fearful of an opposing POV (within reason). Most boring threads on BF are those masquerading as an echo chamber of likeminded thoughts.

I get it though, the repetitive nature of ambit claims for pick 1 by WC fans here is itself tiresome and boring.

Every so often though one arrives who’s more realistic and worth debating.

There's nothing wrong with opposition posters just ones that repeat themselves and draw in multiple posters over pages and pages like that Mop moron.

 

[The Dingrel]

Sure, if we think they are clearly ahead of others. If we think we'll get a better overall result if we trade them, then we should trade.

Nah, you just don't fk with that draft hand. You don't want to be sliding back and thinking you're clever like Luffy because you watched Moneyball a couple of times. Stats show you pick at the pointy end to get good players and there's a a reason for that,,,,ie/ the money ball approach "arbitrage" no longer exists because of all the same data is now available to all clubs. Sure there's some diamonds in the rough later in the draft but live trading gives you flexibility to try and get hold of a pick if someone's there who you think is a slider. One thing to pick players at the pointy end and they're no good, but sliding back and picking duds while the picks you had go on to be stars is plain career suicide. Too much at stake here.

 

[giantroo]

 

[DaveyBoy123]

Speaking of the echo chamber that Twinkletoes mentioned, there seems to be a certain thinking here that Geelong will trade their 1st pick for close to peanuts if Sanders has already been taken.

Firstly, they won't trade it for peanuts... Secondly, O'Sullivan now fits a fairly large need for them (with Rata gone). O'Sullivan & SDK as dual KPDs could set them up for many years. Anyone would have to pay them super overs to stop them using that pick themselves.

 

[Psicosis]

And said that quite some time ago....(perhaps even pre-dating Duursma's turn of form?).

I mentioned previously, but you can actually time stamp Duursma rocketing into Pick 3 contention on Twomeys board, with Rawlings Gettable interview where he initially made those comments.

 

[SKD]

I can see Duursma being that 2nd tall up forward. Very similar to Curnow. Curnow was listed at 191cm in his draft year and is now 194cm. Zane is 189 and could potentially get to 192cm? Great hands, brilliant in the air with his vertical leap and just kicks goals. Has quite wide shoulders too - looks like he will fill out pretty well. Plays like a 195cm forward but moves better and has better skills.

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

I'm starting to wonder whether "generational player" refers to the short attention span of the current generation. What's the latest tally on the number of generational players are up for grabs at this draft?

 

[perplexed]

Nah, you just don't fk with that draft hand. You don't want to be sliding back and thinking you're clever like Luffy because you watched Moneyball a couple of times. Stats show you pick at the pointy end to get good players and there's a a reason for that,,,,ie/ the money ball approach "arbitrage" no longer exists because of all the same data is now available to all clubs. Sure there's some diamonds in the rough later in the draft but live trading gives you flexibility to try and get hold of a pick if someone's there who you think is a slider. One thing to pick players at the pointy end and they're no good, but sliding back and picking duds while the picks you had go on to be stars is plain career suicide. Too much at stake here.

I'm not proposing crazy Luffy stuff, I want to do the opposite. Luff ignored list balance and started the 2020 draft by picking 4 undersized midfielders based on what his stats told him were best available.

 

[archerboy]

I'm starting to wonder whether "generational player" refers to the short attention span of the current generation. What's the latest tally on the number of generational players are up for grabs at this draft?

I've just trademarked the word "generational', should have my first million by tonight I reckon

 

[archerboy]

I've just trademarked the word "generational', should have my first million by tonight I reckon

Damn I owe myself some money

 

[noobermensch]

A player profile for Harley Reid. Trying something new, feedback is welcome.

 

[My Left Foote]

There's nothing wrong with opposition posters just ones that repeat themselves and draw in multiple posters over pages and pages like that Mop moron.

Mop was insufferable I don’t know why we let him stay here for so long.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

GETTABLE: It's MOCK DRAFT time, Dons targets, the top-10 shaper, latest whispers

Riley Beveridge and Cal Twomey are joined by Kevin 'Shifter' Sheehan and answer your draft questions

www.afl.com.au

Pick 3: Curtin
Pick 4: McKercher
Pick 20: Will Green

 

[ohmygewd]

You don't really need to be a contender to attract players who want to go home. I also think Geelong potentially imploding in the short-term is more of a negative than a positive.



I don't even know who we are going for with pick 2 and 3, we have been linked with a few players. McKercher and the other Tasmanian boys would definitely be flight risks, as was JHF. We aren't in denial about those types of risks. However, Tasmania do not have a side yet and wont have a team in until after the first contract expires, so there is nothing to pressure him atm. He would have to extend his contract to keep playing in the AFL so that is going to be 5 or so years in Melbourne and without any outside influence pressuring him. Port were all over JHFs arse the second he left SA and Geelong will be the same with Reid if he leaves Victoria.

I'm not even saying it is a foregone conclusion he will leave, it is just an element of risk.

I think the Tasmanian risk is very real especially if these top Tassie boys kick on (and future ones as well) so retention will be a major factor but the greater risk is actually Clarko!!
His 5 year deal expires in 2028 and he has always expressed his love to be part of this new team and no doubt the AFL will use the GWS model more than the GC for an expansion side and having Clarko as possibly the head coach just makes sense for this new Tassie side...let alone Fagan joining him in the Todd Viney-like role.

Bit of a conspiracy idea but Clarkson's been strong on his views about the new Tasmanian side and l can't see the AFL/Tassie Devils going with a rookie coach nor can l see him being at NMFC beyond his contract but l would like to think that he leaves North in 5 years at the top of our game both on field and off field.

So this draft is important to Clarkson's timeline to make us into a contending team before his contract finishes...and don't rule out Simmo coming back as assistant when WC give him the arse at the end of 2024...hand over role by end of 2027?
2024 - competitive bottom 4.
2025 - competitive mid table.
2026 - knock on the eight maybe squeeze in, possibly one final.
2027 - firmly in the eight, finals into 2 round, Simmo given the reins end of season, Clarkson released from final year
2028 - Top 4

 

[the big lebowski]

Damn I owe myself some money

Treat yourself bro

 

[the big lebowski]

Pick 3: Curtin
Pick 4: McKercher
Pick 20: Will Green

It’s weird.

I think Curtin is better for us.

I think there’s a 50/50 chance he ends up better than Dursma.

I think Dursma has higher bust/average potential.

I get more excited about drafting Dursma. Infact I think of Curtin (a 197cm 95 kg rebounding defender) as boring.

 

[Ball Dont Lie]

I am no draft or trade expert but is there a way to use pick 2 and 3 to get caddy, curtin and Watson? Yes I realise Duursma and McKercher are the better players but the other 3 would be much better for the overall list balance and let’s be honest all of them are essentially a risk.

 

[chubbspeterson]

I'm starting to wonder whether "generational player" refers to the short attention span of the current generation. What's the latest tally on the number of generational players are up for grabs at this draft?

Like everything they do, its the AFL media trying to copy the NBA. Calling everybody generational and unicorns when they are just tall and can cover the ground pretty well at that size (Luke Jackson for example). Porzingis was a generational player and unicorn, hasn't quite lived up to it imo.

 

[apollo_creed]

Like everything they do, its the AFL media trying to copy the NBA. Calling everybody generational and unicorns when they are just tall and can cover the ground pretty well at that size (Luke Jackson for example). Porzingis was a generational player and unicorn, hasn't quite lived up to it imo.

It's not so much that it's that it generates clicks. Jon Ralph was saying the other week it's amazing how many hits the draft and trading stories get. This is why they're producing outlandish content, it's making money for them.

 

[hilly]

I think the Tasmanian risk is very real especially if these top Tassie boys kick on (and future ones as well) so retention will be a major factor but the greater risk is actually Clarko!!
His 5 year deal expires in 2028 and he has always expressed his love to be part of this new team and no doubt the AFL will use the GWS model more than the GC for an expansion side and having Clarko as possibly the head coach just makes sense for this new Tassie side...let alone Fagan joining him in the Todd Viney-like role.

Bit of a conspiracy idea but Clarkson's been strong on his views about the new Tasmanian side and l can't see the AFL/Tassie Devils going with a rookie coach nor can l see him being at NMFC beyond his contract but l would like to think that he leaves North in 5 years at the top of our game both on field and off field.

So this draft is important to Clarkson's timeline to make us into a contending team before his contract finishes...and don't rule out Simmo coming back as assistant when WC give him the arse at the end of 2024...hand over role by end of 2027?
2024 - competitive bottom 4.
2025 - competitive mid table.
2026 - knock on the eight maybe squeeze in, possibly one final.
2027 - firmly in the eight, finals into 2 round, Simmo given the reins end of season, Clarkson released from final year
2028 - Top 4

Could definitely see North and Clarko going their separate ways once we finally reach top four : stern look

 

[Tas]

I think the Tasmanian risk is very real especially if these top Tassie boys kick on (and future ones as well) so retention will be a major factor but the greater risk is actually Clarko!!

Yeah, go home factor is very real. My point was Tasmania wont have a team until at least 2027, their first year contract will end 2026 so they will need to sign another deal and it is unlikely going to be a 1 year deal, probably 2 or 3 years and at that stage they would have been here 5-6 years and they are 23-24. It will be different to the pressure JHF was under where he had clubs actively pursue him, Tasmania wont be around for a while.

His 5 year deal expires in 2028 and he has always expressed his love to be part of this new team and no doubt the AFL will use the GWS model more than the GC for an expansion side and having Clarko as possibly the head coach just makes sense for this new Tassie side...let alone Fagan joining him in the Todd Viney-like role.

I don't know how long Clarko will be around, I think the way we have supported him will mean a lot to him and I think if he gets the group up and going he will not want to hand over the reigns for someone else to get the success out of it. If we are contenders in that time period, my guess is he will stick it out as far as he can take it. If he wins a flag in 5 years (seems fanciful at this stage but Lions went from whipping boys to top 4 after 2 years) then I am sure hading that over to someone else wouldn't sit well with him.

I think he would love to stick it to Kennett and everyone who thought he was past it. Nothing he would love more than to be winning flags whilst Mitchell is coaching Hawks and have them watch it unfold.

Bit of a conspiracy idea but Clarkson's been strong on his views about the new Tasmanian side and l can't see the AFL/Tassie Devils going with a rookie coach nor can l see him being at NMFC beyond his contract but l would like to think that he leaves North in 5 years at the top of our game both on field and off field.

I think he would be open to it, but the I think he would prefer for them to accumulate good players before he goes there. He came here and has avoided 3 shitful years of bottoming out. As bad as we have been this year, we have accumulated a lot of young talent. Does he really want to be part of a period of 50-100 losses whilst boys become men?

So this draft is important to Clarkson's timeline to make us into a contending team before his contract finishes...and don't rule out Simmo coming back as assistant when WC give him the arse at the end of 2024...hand over role by end of 2027?
2024 - competitive bottom 4.
2025 - competitive mid table.
2026 - knock on the eight maybe squeeze in, possibly one final.
2027 - firmly in the eight, finals into 2 round, Simmo given the reins end of season, Clarkson released from final year
2028 - Top 4

I don't see the Simmo appeal tbh.