Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 3

[cats_09]

Here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

Cheers to Lore for their hard work in setting this up, and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft - and please practice patience grasshoppers if it's not updated in the immediate aftermath of completed trade





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Free Agency Period​

The AFL introduced free agency at the end of the 2012 season, giving players another vehicle where they can transfer from one club to another. Free agency is a common form of player movement in major football and sporting codes around the world.

Free Agency Opens: Friday October 4 at 9.00am
Free Agency Closes: Friday October 11 at 5.00pm

Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period​

Trade Period Opens: Monday October 7 at 9.00am
Trade Period Closes: Wednesday October 16 at 7.30pm

 

[OzeSparky]

‘Hated the world’: Why footy may have saved draft prospect’s life — CODE Sports

Sporting tattoos and a rat’s tail at age 17, Jhett Haeata says there’s no point trying to hide his story. Bullying led him to a bad crowd and trouble with the law before his extraordinary rise as an AFL Draft hope, writes PAUL AMY.

apple.news

Anyone know much about this lad?
Could be worth a late pick punt.

 

[moond0g]

I hope you are correct. I have faith in the club, but until we know the details it is all just guessing.

I have a question though - why would Bailey Smith accept less from Geelong than he could have gotten in the open market? Out of the goodness of his heart?

To use your analogy - because the contract must be viewed as a whole. That is, all the ‘value’ of coming to the cats weighed against all the value of going elsewhere.

The expected value of consistently playing finals might be worth $50k/year to Bailey. Likewise, it’s pretty easy to justify $50k/year less in salary when the cost of living is lower than Melbourne (or even more if we’re considering a Sydney club), or some might add value due to the overall lifestyle of living away from the cbd. That’s not considering the environment/resources the club provide that others might not.

Overall it’s pretty easy to put a case forward that the expected value of a contract with Geelong may be higher than others, even if the salary is $100k/year lower.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Sam Power gunning for Dodoro's throne.

Haggled for a week with St.Kilda to move from getting 47 for Macrae to getting 45.

Haggled with Mackdog for a week to go from 17 to 17 and swap 45 for 38... Which will move into pick 40 on draft night.

Wouldn't want him bargaining for your next used car. The price would stay the same but he'd "bend" their arm for a free air freshener.

In fairness and all mocking aside of him.. why not tho??

If that haggling for a week gets you those slightly (very slightly) better picks, then he did well. That’s what he is paid to do, get the best deals… regardless of the improvement in the deal. Can’t blame him for doing his job

 

[Turbocat]

Any information on him?

The positives ..I see is he is a big frame , is capable of strong contested marks.. which I feel is key to the top level compared to super talented guys like Lukocious .. combine show he a reasonable leap and is reasonable agility.
The negative is he need to work on his conversion, technique needs a little work and he is more Hawkins than Cameron..if you know what I mean…. and we seem to like the latter more than the former.

 

[D BRIDGE]

You gotta be super happy Mangy Carl

Lucky for us Mackdog is doing the negotiating and not you.

You were handing over 2x R1s lol... Mackie saved you an entire first-rounder.

Even less than your best-case scenario 1st + 2nd (much less).

 

[Hinkley29]

This analogy doesn't quite work because players are not property. The two agreements are separate. One between Geelong and WB for the transfer. Another between Geelong and Bailey for his services. While Geelong has a stake in both negotiations, the bulldogs have no stake in the second, so the first is based on whatever is considered fair/acceptable as between the clubs.

From Geelong’d perspective they are totally linked. Geelong can’t have one without the other. The acquisition cost of Bailey smith to Geelong is a combination of both components that cannot be separated.

Exactly like the strata property analogy. Two agreements but completely linked - you can’t have one without the other.

I will stop there because I fear it could be interpreted that I am trying to take the thread off topic.

 

[Hinkley29]

To use your analogy - because the contract must be viewed as a whole. That is, all the ‘value’ of coming to the cats weighed against all the value of going elsewhere.

The expected value of consistently playing finals might be worth $50k/year to Bailey. Likewise, it’s pretty easy to justify $50k/year less in salary when the cost of living is lower than Melbourne (or even more if we’re considering a Sydney club), or some might add value due to the overall lifestyle of living away from the cbd. That’s not considering the environment/resources the club provide that others might not.

Overall it’s pretty easy to put a case forward that the expected value of a contract with Geelong may be higher than others, even if the salary is $100k/year lower.

That is a decent argument. If those things are of value to Bailey then I could buy that.

 

[00VicWard001]

Boy O Boy that Richmond draft hand looks very similar to Norfs the past few years and that of the Giants and the Suns of years past.
Gonna be a real messy couple of years for those at Punt Road.

Isn’t there a guarantee of a certain pay band if you’re a round 1 player?

When you say ‘messy’, I can see a few ways it can be so.

It’s painful trying to build a team when the core is young and don’t have the strength to compete with adults.

It’s also hard to retain them if they all need to be played/paid.

It’s also a clear signal to the market they will be competing without experience. Much like North, it will be hard to attract quality players who play for premierships. That type of player gives that intangible that lifts a team and a club (Selwood/Dangerfield/Gawn/both Reiwoldts come to mind). Those players don’t go play in teams that are there to make up the numbers.

I can see why they locked Balta in. Now he and Hopper and Taranto are trapped and are there to take the hits on behalf of their younger players.

 

[00VicWard001]

Far out if he was looking at me like that when negotiating I'd give up whatever he wanted to just get out the room. Looks a madman

Literally doesn’t know what to do with his hands or eyelids

 

[Turbocat]

In fairness and all mocking aside of him.. why not tho??

If that haggling for a week gets you those slightly (very slightly) better picks, then he did well. That’s what he is paid to do, get the best deals… regardless of the improvement in the deal. Can’t blame him for doing his job

To some degree its the system..and what he is expected to do… but I do think the elevation of expectation well beyond what they were going to achieve was less than admirable. IMO. It set some of them supporters up for a bitter result. Top 10 and such rubbish. They cooked their pie last year when they did not trade him as a contracted player …. Power gained a marginal increase in 17 so he may say he got us to pay more or it helped to get Kennedy done …..so he did his job ..

The real issue is the deadline which allows and encourages that approach. No one did anything till the door was closing. If we want more action maybe they need to think on that… but I suspect the afl dont care. They get hours of talk on nothing. Its alchemy for them.

 

[00VicWard001]

Everyone is applauding. I don’t get it at all. They just moved out 4 of the best 5 players on their list out. There is f all talent left, outside of Taranto, Hopper, Lynch and Balta. The majority of their picks are in that danger zone, where if draft evals don’t plan out, youre left with a whole crop of Billie smedts type players. History has proven time and time again, you can’t blow a list up and expect a group of 1st or 2nd yr players to shoulder the load. It will be 4-5 years before they are competitive, and that’s if they nail picks, and not screw their development by expecting too much too soon.

Draft picks are great, but those players are raw materials with some exceptions like Shiezel and Harley Reid.

Development is more important. Otherwise why the F*ck are players like Gryan in contention for all Australian every year?

If you don’t have a solid mature senior team around draftees - that instil the virtues of seeking glory, then you have nothing more than cannon fodder.

 

[Turbocat]

I think Hotton unfortunately will be taken before we get an opportunity to trade our FF. He’s absolute quality and would have been imo a top 4 pick if he hadn’t done his knee. Richmond with all those picks should use one on him.

I’ll have to give it some thought who I’d trade our FF for… I assume unless the Tigers now bunch some picks together to move up we could potentially trade it for around pick 23?

Thinking on it… If I was Rich id risk one of their picks on him so..I guess you are probably right..probably gone by mid 20’s which is the sort of number I think we can get into.

Im not sure how we would see it. I cant remember ever liking Holmes so really who knows what or who the club would like. I like Hynes too but its good to be able to be confident that the club will find a way to bring in a couple of fresh names..
If the club really like someone they will not be bound by others opinions… fro example if the really want Lachie Jaques .. they then could trade in and call him early.

 

[Kitcat]

We had the weakest mid/ruck combination in the top 8. We have only added Smith who hopefully recaptures his best form. Cam Guthrie probably won’t be as good as 2 years ago. Danger and Stanley another year older, and will be managed a lot. Bruhn will improve. Clark still a way off. Martin not really a mid. Holmes will get even better.

On the face of it, we will struggle again in the midfield.

 

[iameviljez]

You gotta be super happy Mangy Carl

Lucky for us Mackdog is doing the negotiating and not you.

You were handing over 2x R1s lol... Mackie saved you an entire first-rounder.

Even less than your best-case scenario 1st + 2nd (much less).
View attachment 2145334

I am always astounded when posters store other ambit claims somewhere deep in their memory bank only to resurface them weeks/months later for a Gotcha. Honestly, I don't think anyone else really cares. You were right, someone else on the internet was wrong. It's a bit of a Tallest Dwarf competition

 

[iameviljez]

We had the weakest mid/ruck combination in the top 8. We have only added Smith who hopefully recaptures his best form. Cam Guthrie probably won’t be as good as 2 years ago. Danger and Stanley another year older, and will be managed a lot. Bruhn will improve. Clark still a way off. Martin not really a mid. Holmes will get even better.

On the face of it, we will struggle again in the midfield.

Yeah, of course. You don't turn 180 completely in a single trade period, nobody ever has. This isn't soccer, where there is a whole world of ready-made fixes out there.

 

[iameviljez]

In fairness and all mocking aside of him.. why not tho??

If that haggling for a week gets you those slightly (very slightly) better picks, then he did well. That’s what he is paid to do, get the best deals… regardless of the improvement in the deal. Can’t blame him for doing his job

I have a sneaking suspicion that he is also just a bit over having good players eyeing off the exit door at the Dogs.

 

[D BRIDGE]

I am always astounded when posters store other ambit claims somewhere deep in their memory bank only to resurface them weeks/months later for a Gotcha. Honestly, I don't think anyone else really cares. You were right, someone else on the internet was wrong. It's a bit of a Tallest Dwarf competition

Nah man we all thought this guy was a Richmond fake account troll he was so weirdly firm on us giving up 2 R1s for Smith.

He mentioned to bookmark it… so I did.

Turns out not a troll… I think.

 

[cats_09]

Just because some teams did more trades, doesn't mean they were good lol

I just love that the Bulldogs finally got involved in the last 10 minutes and got a 'D' for their efforts - if the only thing they did all week was instead accept pick 17 for Smith, and kept both Daniel & Macrae, they likely get a better grade

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Nothing against those who now will discuss the various draft prospects for November but many a draft thread has taught me no one here is really an expert.

Deven Robertson

2

Deven Robertson

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

4.0

3star

M

0.0

1star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

4.0

3star

M

0.0

1star

T

3.0

4star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

4.0

3star

M

0.0

1star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.0

1star

and Brodie Kemp are two examples of players many were desperate for us to get. Both were attempted trades this week.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

I hope you are correct. I have faith in the club, but until we know the details it is all just guessing.

I have a question though - why would Bailey Smith accept less from Geelong than he could have gotten in the open market? Out of the goodness of his heart?

Geelong FC explains to anyone player that has an interest in coming to the club that one of the main reasons why the club has been so competitive and successful over such a long period of time now is that ALL their major players in regards to their contracts, take less than the 'open market' with the completely selfless Joel Selwood and Tom Hawkins being exhibit's one and two. But that also includes a player of the likes of Jeremy Cameron who could easily be getting an extra 200k+ on the 'open market', same with Patrick Dangerfield over the past few years, same as Tom Stewart and these players are our club leaders 'setting the example'. They are our captains, vice captains, etc and they are 'all in'.... so the standard and sacrifices has been set as to how you run a successful club, which other clubs find extremely difficult to do and any player that comes into the club is explained this phenomena quite clearly and plainly, including Bailey Smith.

Carlton just recently couldn't get AA defender Dan Houston who wanted to come to the club and no doubt Carlton desperately wanted him but they couldn't get him into the club because of salary-cap issues. So Geelong's 'big advantage' for sometime now has been the 'selfless commitment' by Geelong FC players taking out contracts far less than the 'open market' which can date back all the way to 2007 and prior. So yes, it gives the club a huge advantage having so many topline players not commanding higher salaries that can hamstrung the club, with Oliver from the Dees with his ridiculous current long term contract being another classic example of a player making it almost impossible for a club to manage their salary-cap over a length of time.

PS - Max Holmes who has become very quickly nearly our most valuable player, he also has taken at least 200k+ per annum less than the 'open market' with his latest contract, maintaining the selfless standard that is being set by our top players. The day our top players start commanding 'open market' contracts will be the day our club no longer has an edge in this field.

Player-list and salary-cap management along with astute recruiting, accompanied by excellent player development is the key to having a sustained highly successful club which the mighty Cats have been doing for sometime now and may it long continue...... GO CATS !!!

 

[iameviljez]

Nah man we all thought this guy was a Richmond fake account troll he was so weirdly firm on us giving up 2 R1s for Smith.

He mentioned to bookmark it… so I did.

Turns out not a troll… I think.

I think not a troll as well. Though I wonder which Facebook alias he/she might have on the various nuffie GFC supporter groups

 

[cats_09]

That doesn’t make any sense.

Acquisition cost is TOTAL acquisition cost. You can’t seperate parts of the cost, because once the player is yours you are on the hook for the entire cost. You can’t just give him back to the bulldogs if the contract is an exorbitant one.

A real life example would be like buying a strata property. It is no good paying a decent purchase price on the property if the ongoing strata levies are crazy expensive. The 2 are inextricably linked.

This was your initial questions: "So if we gave Smith a 7 year deal at $1m+ per annum you still like the trade?"

My answer to that is yes - regardless of the contract Smith signs with Geelong, I'm happy with how the trade played out and that he essentially only cost us a single first round pick at the trade. We were trading for an out of contract player, so the relevance in this situation is the value of the player to both clubs and the middle ground they find in agreeing to that value

Once that trade is a agreed to and Smith is a Geelong, his contract is a seperate issue and one is that is of zero relevance to the Bulldogs nor his trade value - and as such your analogy doesn't really make sense in this situation


Now, if Smith was a Free Agent then you're analogy would have more relevance to the situation because the contract offered to Smith would actually have an influence of how he would be valued in terms of compensation - a high enough contract to get his original team a overvalued draft pick in compensation, they probably accept it and we all move on. But if the Bulldogs didn't like the compensation pick on offer, matched the contract and forced a trade, then suddenly it all becomes on piece because we may have been forced to pay a higher price at the trade table & potentially more on the books than if the player wasn't chased as a free agent

 

[CatToTheFuture]

We had the weakest mid/ruck combination in the top 8. We have only added Smith who hopefully recaptures his best form. Cam Guthrie probably won’t be as good as 2 years ago. Danger and Stanley another year older, and will be managed a lot. Bruhn will improve. Clark still a way off. Martin not really a mid. Holmes will get even better.

On the face of it, we will struggle again in the midfield.

We added a pin to Conway's navicular. Maybe that's all the ruck reinforcement we need?

 

[iameviljez]

That doesn’t make any sense.

Acquisition cost is TOTAL acquisition cost. You can’t seperate parts of the cost, because once the player is yours you are on the hook for the entire cost. You can’t just give him back to the bulldogs if the contract is an exorbitant one.

A real life example would be like buying a strata property. It is no good paying a decent purchase price on the property if the ongoing strata levies are crazy expensive. The 2 are inextricably linked.

While I agree with you about lifetime cost, I think the likelihood of us paying silly money (or, indeed, overs) for Smith is very slim indeed.

It's part of our 'brand' as it were - people know they do not get big money at Geelong, but the trade off is a competitive team and great work/life balance.

 

[Jemaine]

Isn’t there a guarantee of a certain pay band if you’re a round 1 player?

When you say ‘messy’, I can see a few ways it can be so.

It’s painful trying to build a team when the core is young and don’t have the strength to compete with adults.

It’s also hard to retain them if they all need to be played/paid.

It’s also a clear signal to the market they will be competing without experience. Much like North, it will be hard to attract quality players who play for premierships. That type of player gives that intangible that lifts a team and a club (Selwood/Dangerfield/Gawn/both Reiwoldts come to mind). Those players don’t go play in teams that are there to make up the numbers.

I can see why they locked Balta in. Now he and Hopper and Taranto are trapped and are there to take the hits on behalf of their younger players.

I agree with this, the only thing is that they have at least had recent success and regularly play marquee matchups in a packed MCG, which is a decent enough lure for some players. Plus the added fame/exposure that comes along with being a player for a larger club with a big fanbase.