“We Will Be Trading Aggressively”

[Eagle87]

Most people will be amazed by the interest that will be generated by Seaby.
But they should't be.
I believe he would probably lead the ruck at any of the following clubs. Or he would have an equal share of ruck duties.
Carlton
Collingwood
St Kilda
Sydney
Geelong
Hawthorn
Western B
Port in a years time
Adel.
He is 24 and a babe in ruck years with100 games experience 5 years of finals including to grand finals.
Wake up Australia. pick 10 to 20 or he stays home.Still under contract.

 

[Obeanie1]

Geez, you come up with some pearlers.

How dumb do you think Richmond are?

I suppose we'll find out next week.

So Gunner if we were looking to upgrade our pick 18 into a mid first round pick (pick 8) what do you think it would take?

I'm mean we are only talking about a 10 spot upgrade here 8 versus 18. In this years draft compared to previous years the quality is deep, to 20 say.

So in your opinion a 24 yr old, 200cm, 97 game premiership ruckman (I suppose they are a dime a dozen) isn't enough to get a 10 spot upgrade.

Adding a low 3rd round pick in 36 still isn't enough.

So Master Jedi, what would be reasonable to pay for a 10 spot upgrade?

 

[ytpme]

The difference of an upgrade from 18 to 8 from say 50 to 40 is monumental, especially in this year's draft!

 

[keviewiggle]

We cannot replace Seabys value on the list with anything less than a top 20 selection.
He is contracted so why accept anything that will devalue our list.
I seem to remember he dominated the preseason taking big grabs and kicking bags. Everybody thought he was on target for a big year.
The demise of our onball division ment that Cox who racked up more possessions than anybody else in the team needed to stay on the ball as our premier onballer. Not an ideal situation but instremental in reducing Seabys influence.
He has been in our top 22 for the 3 previous years when we were a force.
Don,t drop the blame for a poor year at the feet of Seaby who had no real opportunity to develop his skills by regular ground time.

 

[KamakazeSalami]

We cannot replace Seabys value on the list with anything less than a top 20 selection.

Are you suggesting a straight swap of Seaby for Pick 20 or under? If so, there is no way that is going to happen.

He is contracted so why accept anything that will devalue our list.
I seem to remember he dominated the preseason taking big grabs and kicking bags. Everybody thought he was on target for a big year.
The demise of our onball division ment that Cox who racked up more possessions than anybody else in the team needed to stay on the ball as our premier onballer. Not an ideal situation but instremental in reducing Seabys influence.
He has been in our top 22 for the 3 previous years when we were a force.
Don,t drop the blame for a poor year at the feet of Seaby who had no real opportunity to develop his skills by regular ground time.

Who should a player's poor performance be blamed on?

I don't believe that one shit year makes or breaks your career. And I do agree that increased playing time does help with player's development and confidence etc and he will never get enough of that under Cox. However, its not like he only got 4 games this year. He played 14! I was actually surprised when I saw that. Felt more like 8 or 9, and that just shows (to me anyway) what little impact he's had this year.

You can't on the one hand say he can't be replaced with anything less than a pick in the top 20 (97 games, 24yo, plenty of finals, 2GF's, Prem Player etc. etc.) and then on the other hand say his shit season can't be blamed on him. If he's good enough to demand a top 20 pick then he should be bloody good enough to cement his position in the side through his own actions.

While I don't agree with those who say he is shit, I think he has been solid over the last few years, he did have enough opportunity to stamp himself in a team that was whittled down to the bone with injuries, and he didn't manage to do that this year. Thats something you can't blame on everyone around you, or the perceived lack of opportunity.

 

[Gunnar Longshanks]

So Gunner if we were looking to upgrade our pick 18 into a mid first round pick (pick 8) what do you think it would take?

Hard to say.

Depends on the needs of the club we're trading with.

If we're talking about Richmond, they would basically look through our list of youngsters and say, "we want that guy". They'd have to identify the player who represents that kind of value to them.

Our established players are mostly not for trade (Cox, Glass) or waning in value (Embley, Fletcher), so it would be one of our prized younger players.

I think you'd basically be looking at Hurn or Waters. Maybe Mitch Brown. We might even be overpaying a bit there, but I reckon those players would be in the ball park.

This is an inexact science though, because it really depends on how much Richmond want these players. They don't have a fixed value.

I'm mean we are only talking about a 10 spot upgrade here 8 versus 18. In this years draft compared to previous years the quality is deep, to 20 say.

Only?

That's a pretty significant upgrade.

Let's say Sydney came knocking with pick 11, wanting our pick 2. Or Collingwood with pick 10. Or the Crows with pick 9. What kind of player would you want them to bundle with their existing pick to get that deal done?

I reckon you'd be wanting someone better than Seaby.

So in your opinion a 24 yr old, 200cm, 97 game premiership ruckman (I suppose they are a dime a dozen) isn't enough to get a 10 spot upgrade.

Seaby isn't very good. Let's not pretend otherwise.

And stop describing him as "a premiership ruckman"" as though that automatically increases his value.

It's bullshit, and no-one buys it.

How about our premiership small forward Steven Armstrong?

Does the fact he's a premiership player increase his value? Probably not, seeing as we just delisted him.

Maybe we should have packaged him with pick 18 and shopped that around for an upgrade into the top 10. After all, he's a premiership small forward.

Seaby is 24 years old and 200cm tall. So what?

Is that meant to prove that he'll get us an upgrade into the top 10?

 

[swannies]

Seaby isn't very good. Let's not pretend otherwise.

And stop describing him as "a premiership ruckman"" as though that automatically increases his value.

It's bullshit, and no-one buys it.

Whilst I understand what you're saying Gunnar, that's a little harsh, or maybe a lot. You didn't watch him at WAFL this year, I presume from your location, because he was certainly better than Warnock at that level. Guy Richards came to Swans (I'll wash my mouth out later) having played 40 odd AFL games and he was as close to hopeless as you would see, so WAFL performances do count for something. Also, if Richmond, who have Simmonds, offer 26 off the bat he isn't a complete dud. Richards wasn't picked up in last years PSD, now he was a complete dud!

My take on Seaby is that he is a confidence player and when not playing regularly at whichever level, his form suffers. It will be worth someone ,who has a Richards type as their ruckman, giving him a go because the dividends will likely pay off.

 

[Gunnar Longshanks]

Whilst I understand what you're saying Gunnar, that's a little harsh, or maybe a lot. You didn't watch him at WAFL this year, I presume from your location, because he was certainly better than Warnock at that level. Guy Richards came to Swans (I'll wash my mouth out later) having played 40 odd AFL games and he was as close to hopeless as you would see, so WAFL performances do count for something. Also, if Richmond, who have Simmonds, offer 26 off the bat he isn't a complete dud. Richards wasn't picked up in last years PSD, now he was a complete dud!

Maybe I'm being a bit harsh on Seaby.

He's not McDougall.

But people are talking about him like he's a rolled-gold quality player. He isn't.

He's barely even best 22 at the Eagles.

Trying to up fringe players just seems like a waste of breath to me. He's not a top notch ruckman. Nowhere near it. We've seen him produce some pretty ordinary performances in recent times, but now that he's up for trade, he metamorphosises into a world-beater. It's bullshit.

 

[RhEF JC]

Trying to up fringe players just seems like a waste of breath to me. He's not a top notch ruckman. Nowhere near it. We've seen him produce some pretty ordinary performances in recent times, but now that he's up for trade, he metamorphosises into a world-beater. It's bullshit.

I think the word you're looking for is 'turns'...

 

[Obeanie1]

Hard to say.

Depends on the needs of the club we're trading with.

If we're talking about Richmond, they would basically look through our list of youngsters and say, "we want that guy". They'd have to identify the player who represents that kind of value to them.

Our established players are mostly not for trade (Cox, Glass) or waning in value (Embley, Fletcher), so it would be one of our prized younger players.

I think you'd basically be looking at Hurn or Waters. Maybe Mitch Brown. We might even be overpaying a bit there, but I reckon those players would be in the ball park.

This is an inexact science though, because it really depends on how much Richmond want these players. They don't have a fixed value.

Only?

That's a pretty significant upgrade.

Let's say Sydney came knocking with pick 11, wanting our pick 2. Or Collingwood with pick 10. Or the Crows with pick 9. What kind of player would you want them to bundle with their existing pick to get that deal done?

I reckon you'd be wanting someone better than Seaby.

Seaby isn't very good. Let's not pretend otherwise.

And stop describing him as "a premiership ruckman"" as though that automatically increases his value.

It's bullshit, and no-one buys it.

How about our premiership small forward Steven Armstrong?

Does the fact he's a premiership player increase his value? Probably not, seeing as we just delisted him.

Maybe we should have packaged him with pick 18 and shopped that around for an upgrade into the top 10. After all, he's a premiership small forward.

Seaby is 24 years old and 200cm tall. So what?

Is that meant to prove that he'll get us an upgrade into the top 10?

Hurn or Waters for a ten spot upgrade is waaay too much, as is Brown, what happened to the old Gunner hard nose negotiator?

You'v said it yourself Gunner a 10 pick uprade 50 < 40 is a different ball game to 30 < 20. 2 < 12 is even bigger. Normally the top 3-4 are elite draftees, 5-8 are very very good, 9 > its starting to get into good players but hit and miss territory. This year allegedly its a deeper draft.

I'd still consider a 8 < 18 missing out on the elite and we'r into very good players but still hit and miss.

You can't compare Seaby to Armstrong. Ruckmen don't grow on trees, undersize small forwards / mids are everwhere.

You don't think being a premiership player increases your value, thats your opinion.....it's not mine. To get picked and play in a premiership side means the selection comittee rate you highly, you'v got big game experience and know what it takes.

The Jolly > Seaby comparison is a good one IMO. Jolly moved to Sydney to play first ruck as White was keeping Jolly sitting on the pine. How good did Cox look when playing second fiddle to Gardiner.

Seaby will get a 2nd round pick and a 10 pick upgrade is not out of the question, add pick 36 and its very close.

 

[15_year_member]

Hard to say.

Depends on the needs of the club we're trading with.

If we're talking about Richmond, they would basically look through our list of youngsters and say, "we want that guy". They'd have to identify the player who represents that kind of value to them.

Our established players are mostly not for trade (Cox, Glass) or waning in value (Embley, Fletcher), so it would be one of our prized younger players.

I think you'd basically be looking at Hurn or Waters. Maybe Mitch Brown. We might even be overpaying a bit there, but I reckon those players would be in the ball park.

This is an inexact science though, because it really depends on how much Richmond want these players. They don't have a fixed value.

Only?

That's a pretty significant upgrade.

Let's say Sydney came knocking with pick 11, wanting our pick 2. Or Collingwood with pick 10. Or the Crows with pick 9. What kind of player would you want them to bundle with their existing pick to get that deal done?

I reckon you'd be wanting someone better than Seaby.

Seaby isn't very good. Let's not pretend otherwise.

And stop describing him as "a premiership ruckman"" as though that automatically increases his value.

It's bullshit, and no-one buys it.

How about our premiership small forward Steven Armstrong?

Does the fact he's a premiership player increase his value? Probably not, seeing as we just delisted him.

Maybe we should have packaged him with pick 18 and shopped that around for an upgrade into the top 10. After all, he's a premiership small forward.

Seaby is 24 years old and 200cm tall. So what?

Is that meant to prove that he'll get us an upgrade into the top 10?

You would consider trading Brown who is a 1st round KPP himself who has already shown that he has what it takes to become a good AFL player in return for a pick upgrade on this years first round???

I am glad you are not trading manager for us.

If Seaby was such a dud then he wouldn't have 5 or so clubs chasing him. There weren't even that many showing interest in Warnock. Seaby will be twice as good a player when he plays at a club that is able to invest the main rucking duties in him and give him confidence.

Another thing you need to start distinguishing is what you would do and what you consider a good deal as opposed to what other people, including AFL clubs, think is a good deal. Not everybody thinks the same as you. Just because you wouldn't pay something for Seaby doesn't mean that somebody else won't. Especially clubs like Richmond where several key peoplewill probably get sacked next year if the club doesn't make the finals. I am sure they are more concerned with getting mature players like Seaby up and running than hoarding draft picks that take 4 years to bear fruit.

 

[Gunnar Longshanks]

Hurn or Waters for a ten spot upgrade is waaay too much, as is Brown, what happened to the old Gunner hard nose negotiator?

Yeah - we might be overpaying there.

The reality is that it would be up to the other club to identify the players of ours that they wanted.

Seaby wouldn't cut it.

It would take someone better - the guys I've mentioned are ball park. If it came to the nitty-gritty, I'd probably baulk at that trade.

You can't compare Seaby to Armstrong. Ruckmen don't grow on trees, undersize small forwards / mids are everwhere.

I am bracketing them purely in the sense that their value doesn't increase just because they played in a premiership.

You don't think being a premiership player increases your value, thats your opinion.....it's not mine. To get picked and play in a premiership side means the selection comittee rate you highly, you'v got big game experience and know what it takes.

So why did we delist Steven Armstrong?

He's a premiership player.

That didn't seem to increase his value the way you insist it increases Seaby's.

Even though he was a premiership player, we decided that he had zero trade value.

Seaby will get a 2nd round pick and a 10 pick upgrade is not out of the question, add pick 36 and its very close.

I agree that pick 20-something is close to the mark.

But I think there's basically no chance of us packing him with pick 18 in return for pick 8.

He's not good enough to fetch that kind of upgrade.

 

[keviewiggle]

One Question.
Can you replace Seabys value to the list with a 26+ pick?
I say NO.
So why trade him for anything less?
It's a no brainer for mine.

 

[Gunnar Longshanks]

You would consider trading Brown who is a 1st round KPP himself who has already shown that he has what it takes to become a good AFL player in return for a pick upgrade on this years first round???

Is that what I said?

You can't help yourself, can you?

I said that Brown is the kind of player who would be required to fetch that kind of upgrade.

Let me know if you still fail to grasp the distinction here.

If Seaby was such a dud then he wouldn't have 5 or so clubs chasing him. There weren't even that many showing interest in Warnock. Seaby will be twice as good a player when he plays at a club that is able to invest the main rucking duties in him and give him confidence.

He's not a complete dud.

He's not McDougall.

But nor is he good enough to fetch the kind of 18 to 8 upgrade discussed previously.

Another thing you need to start distinguishing is what you would do and what you consider a good deal as opposed to what other people, including AFL clubs, think is a good deal. Not everybody thinks the same as you.

Is there a point camouflaged somewhere in there?

Or is it just you waffling on again in the hope that if people see a long post they'll assume it contains something vaguely coherent?

Just because you wouldn't pay something for Seaby doesn't mean that somebody else won't. Especially clubs like Richmond where several key peoplewill probably get sacked next year if the club doesn't make the finals. I am sure they are more concerned with getting mature players like Seaby up and running than hoarding draft picks that take 4 years to bear fruit.

It's just more and more bullshit generalities with you.

Patently, the sticking point is about what we'll get for Seaby. That's what this discussion is about.

I know you're not big on specifics, but surely at some point you'd touch on that fundamental.

I think we'll end up with pick 20-something. I don't think we'll get the kind of bumper deal some people are hoping for.

 

[15_year_member]

Is that what I said?

You can't help yourself, can you?

I said that Brown is the kind of player who would be required to fetch that kind of upgrade.

Let me know if you still fail to grasp the distinction here.

He's not a complete dud.

He's not McDougall.

But nor is he good enough to fetch the kind of 18 to 8 upgrade discussed previously.

Is there a point camouflaged somewhere in there?

Or is it just you waffling on again in the hope that if people see a long post they'll assume it contains something vaguely coherent?

It's just more and more bullshit generalities with you.

Patently, the sticking point is about what we'll get for Seaby. That's what this discussion is about.

I know you're not big on specifics, but surely at some point you'd touch on that fundamental.

I think we'll end up with pick 20-something. I don't think we'll get the kind of bumper deal some people are hoping for.

Sorry, I forgot that you are the oracle of knowledge on all thinsg to do with trading and know in advance what all the trades are going to be. What did the tea leaves tell you today? You can only guess what we will get Seaby, as can everybody else. So stop writing your posts as though they bona fide fact and you know everything and everybody else is an idiot who's opinion is worthless.

Here is the point. Put on your thinking cap for a minute OK. Just because you don't think Seaby is worth anymore than pick 26 doesnt mean that somebody else doesn't. Sit down and get ready for a shock - not everybody thinks that you a genius and follows what you say in the world of AFL trading, Gunnar. And just because i think my car is only worth $8,000 doesn't mean that i won't advertise it and ask for $10,000. If i don't start asking for 10k i have no hope of getting it do i?

It is obvious from your posting style that you are a temperamental egomaniac with a fragile self confidence that needs to be fed by behaving aggressively and condescendingly to others. Now it's gone a step further. You seem to think that all AFL recruiting managers think exactly like you and will all do exactly as you think they should do in any given situation. You probably even think thay should all ring you up for advice.

 

[September_Glory]

I have to say...

The idea of packaging Seaby, Pick #18, #36 for pick #8 is ridiculous. Richmond (or whichever club it is) would have to be in dire need of a ruckman for that happen.

Some people on here think by adding late picks and players clubs will be fooled into thinking the value adds up. Simply put, in regards to trading quality > quantity.

 

[08yearofthetiger]

What about pick #18, #20, #36 and Seaby for Pick #8 and #26?

Same as the other proposed deal just a downgrade on your second pick?

 

[Genesis67]

What about pick #18, #20, #36 and Seaby for Pick #8 and #26?

Same as the other proposed deal just a downgrade on your second pick?

Yes, I think we'd do that.

 

[Obeanie1]

I have to say...

The idea of packaging Seaby, Pick #18, #36 for pick #8 is ridiculous. Richmond (or whichever club it is) would have to be in dire need of a ruckman for that happen.

Some people on here think by adding late picks and players clubs will be fooled into thinking the value adds up. Simply put, in regards to trading quality > quantity.

WTF So pick 18 + 36 add no value? No value at all.

Come on mate pick 18 this year basically equates to a first round pick in previous drafts. So it adds NO VALUE!!!!!!!!???????????

Go and have a look at the players people are saying will go around 18, they are still very good prospects, sure pick 8 is getting close to the eliteish draftees but picking up a Walters, Swift or even a Yarren with 18 is by no means worthless.

Pick 36 this year is a second round last year. Thats like a Scott Selwood.....worthless??????????

We grabed Ebert and Hurn with pick 13 in weaker drafts. Could be argued that 13 = 18 this year. So an Ebert + S Selwood are worthless?

 

[keviewiggle]

Move over all you Seaby Bashers or you will get trampled in the spampeed by other clubs to acquire his services.
Melb & Syd Papers report 5 clubs now on his tail.

 

[Finding Ebo]

Move over all you Seaby Bashers or you will get trampled in the spampeed by other clubs to acquire his services.
Melb & Syd Papers report 5 clubs now on his tail.

Haha. Honest question kevie, did you intentionally type 'spampeed' instead of 'stampede'?

If not, I think you just accidentally coined an awesome term.

Spampede: To spam at an overwhelming rate, in many numbers.

I love it!

 

[Marlin01]

I would have thought a team with top 4 prospects and a weak ruck division would consider using a first-round pick to acquire Seaby. He's a 24 yo, hundred gamer. He's as clean off-field as it is possible to be and is capable of carrying the number one ruck mantle.

He was taken at pick 22 in the 2001 National Draft, and would be our number 1 ruckman if Cox hadn't exceeded all expectations. Since the Eagles recruited Seaby, they have allocated at least $800,000 of salary cap to him over that time, you could consider that development costs that his new club doesn't have to pay.

If Richmond get him for pick 26, I reckon they'll be getting a bargain and I think the fact that pick 26 is their opening bid proves that.

 

[Finding Ebo]

That's best case scenario for sure Marlin01.

We'd be pushing for a late 1st round for sure, any other year we'd probably get it. If this was last year we'd be in the box seat for a trade like that, his value was higher and the draft was perceived as shallower, without the threat of weaker drafts to follow.

Let's not get our hopes up too much, but pick 26 is a good starting point.

 

[Gunnar Longshanks]

Sorry, I forgot that you are the oracle of knowledge on all thinsg to do with trading and know in advance what all the trades are going to be. What did the tea leaves tell you today? You can only guess what we will get Seaby, as can everybody else. So stop writing your posts as though they bona fide fact and you know everything and everybody else is an idiot who's opinion is worthless.

Here is the point. Put on your thinking cap for a minute OK. Just because you don't think Seaby is worth anymore than pick 26 doesnt mean that somebody else doesn't. Sit down and get ready for a shock - not everybody thinks that you a genius and follows what you say in the world of AFL trading, Gunnar. And just because i think my car is only worth $8,000 doesn't mean that i won't advertise it and ask for $10,000. If i don't start asking for 10k i have no hope of getting it do i?

It is obvious from your posting style that you are a temperamental egomaniac with a fragile self confidence that needs to be fed by behaving aggressively and condescendingly to others. Now it's gone a step further. You seem to think that all AFL recruiting managers think exactly like you and will all do exactly as you think they should do in any given situation. You probably even think thay should all ring you up for advice.

Waffle.

Try to make a point next time.

You're basically unable to form coherent, concise arguments.

Over and over, you either fail to engage the topic in any meaningful way, or you spend three paragraphs making an utterly banal observation that could have been expressed in two sentences.

You are the Sarah Palin of BigFooty.

 

[Kyusss]

how about sam butler or matt rosa?