- Thread starter
- #126
Just to whet the appetite,here's the last 9 full MC replays
www.themelbournecupguide.com/melbourne-cup-race-replays
seth
www.themelbournecupguide.com/melbourne-cup-race-replays
seth
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2009 Melbourne Cup Thread
- Thread starter sethlad
- Start date
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Can anyone give me a link that would tell me what races Maldivian and Zipping raced in leading up to the Cox plate last year? Or can anyone off the top of their head remember which ones they were in and if its any different this year? Cheers
the good maggot
Team Captain
Zipping was beaten a length in last years Turnbull in his final lead up run. This year he was beaten about 3 or 4 lengths but still finishing hard.
If you go to the Racing Victoria website you can search for a horse and it will bring up the form for their entire careers starts. You should be able to find your answers on there...
If you go to the Racing Victoria website you can search for a horse and it will bring up the form for their entire careers starts. You should be able to find your answers on there...
- Thread starter
- #130
All the Internationals have now arrived:
Mourilyan & Munsef are definite Melbourne Cup runners,both in the field already.
Warringah & Changingoftheguard have been sold to local syndicates but are far from definite runners,Warringah the more likely
seth
Mourilyan & Munsef are definite Melbourne Cup runners,both in the field already.
Warringah & Changingoftheguard have been sold to local syndicates but are far from definite runners,Warringah the more likely
seth
The Order of Entry is:
1. Viewed (Exempt)
2. Efficient
3. Kirklees
4. Whobegotyou
5. Fiumicino
6. Roman Emperor
7. C'est La Guerre
8. Master O'Reilly
9. Daffodil
10. Mourilyan
11. Changingoftheguard
12. Zipping
13. Harris Tweed
14. Ista Kareem
15. Red Ruler
16. Allez Wonder
17. Zavite
18. Ready To Lift
19. Speed Gifted
20. Crime Scene
21. Munsef
These horses are pretty much guaranteed a start, although Whobegotyou, Changingoftheguard and a couple of others are questionable.
Equal 22nd is:
- Kibbutz
- Newport
- Light Vision
- Alcopop
- Shocking
- Warringah
You'd think Alcopop will definitely get a run. Shocking is in better form than the rest so should get one too. I wouldn't be surprised if Warringah makes the field too.
A few other horses:
- 32nd: Basaltico - Cumani's 2nd horse will probably need to win the Geelong Cup or the SAAB to make the field.
- 33rd: Vigor - Will need 9 horses ahead of him to pull out in order to gain a start, not racing again before the Melbourne Cup, so he's risking not getting a start.
- 58th: Cima de Triomphe - Is not qualified yet so needs to win a race over 2400m.
1. Viewed (Exempt)
2. Efficient
3. Kirklees
4. Whobegotyou
5. Fiumicino
6. Roman Emperor
7. C'est La Guerre
8. Master O'Reilly
9. Daffodil
10. Mourilyan
11. Changingoftheguard
12. Zipping
13. Harris Tweed
14. Ista Kareem
15. Red Ruler
16. Allez Wonder
17. Zavite
18. Ready To Lift
19. Speed Gifted
20. Crime Scene
21. Munsef
These horses are pretty much guaranteed a start, although Whobegotyou, Changingoftheguard and a couple of others are questionable.
Equal 22nd is:
- Kibbutz
- Newport
- Light Vision
- Alcopop
- Shocking
- Warringah
You'd think Alcopop will definitely get a run. Shocking is in better form than the rest so should get one too. I wouldn't be surprised if Warringah makes the field too.
A few other horses:
- 32nd: Basaltico - Cumani's 2nd horse will probably need to win the Geelong Cup or the SAAB to make the field.
- 33rd: Vigor - Will need 9 horses ahead of him to pull out in order to gain a start, not racing again before the Melbourne Cup, so he's risking not getting a start.
- 58th: Cima de Triomphe - Is not qualified yet so needs to win a race over 2400m.
Kirby
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Whobe wont run in the cup.
Zipping is being set for teh Sandown Classic (which he owns) so it will take a major turn around by Williams.
Both Alcopop and Shocking will make the field, as they should.
Zipping is being set for teh Sandown Classic (which he owns) so it will take a major turn around by Williams.
Both Alcopop and Shocking will make the field, as they should.
Alcopop is very interesting, very impressive and comfortable performance in the Herbert, showed a great turn of speed once he found clear running room and easily ran out the 2400m. Beaten Shocking twice who seems to be in some good form. Had the 10 starts (7 wins and 1 place) but hasn't been up against great fields as of yet so a little unsure how it will fair.
Efficient hasn't had the great results or form for almost 2 years (fairly short races though) up until the Turnbull which was a fantastic run. He needs a bit of luck the way he races but if he can get open space he is very hard to catch or hold off which is what happened in the Turnbull. Was 2-3 wide most of the race so he had the space, got a sniff and just took off. Viewed got cut by him at the start of the straight, could have tailed him, just didn't have the speed but wasn't really put in the right position to start with. You know Efficient can run the distance of 3200m, if he is ridden out of trouble i don't think anyone will beat him to the post. 3 group 1 wins and has won 4 out his 7 runs at either 2000m or over.
Viewed, well you can't write him off, super competitor, will hit the line stronger than most but like Efficient, rides from the back (well depending on the draw, doesn't mind sitting midfield if drawn inside) and will need a little luck (which he got in the Caulfield).
Both will need speed on in the race and the barrier won't be much of an issue for either so if they draw wide i wouldn't worry.
3 times they've come up against each other, all this year.
Memsie Stakes over 1400m, Viewed 4th Efficient 5th. (0.1 lengths)
Underwood Stakes over 1800m, Efficient 9th, Viewed 10th (0.5 lengths)
Turnbull Stakes over 2400m, Efficient 1st, Viewed 7th (3 lengths)
2 to 1 Efficient...
Wouldn't count out Master O'Reilly, at least in the placings. Normally thereabouts, with some luck (rides near the rear) he should be hitting the post strongly. Very good run from where it was placed at the turn in the Caulfield in my view.
If the track is wet, soft/heavy track (never know in Melbourne), watch out for Fiumicino at longish odds especially if draw on the inside. If it sits a couple deep in could be in the placings. Did a lot of work in the Sydney Cup and faded a little to finish 6th.
Ista Rareem looked really strong in the Sydney Cup (3200m) taking that out, finished really well so will run the distance.
Also reckon Kirklees will be better off after that Caulfield run. Thought it ran on well, got caught at the turn, had to push out wide and came down the middle with Master O'Reilly, wouldn't count it out.
Roman Emperor ran a very good race in the Caulfield, got in a little trouble half way down the straight but managed to get through and rode on fairly well, don't see it as a danger in the Cup though. Cummings trained horse but don't think it has the acceleration of Efficient and Viewed.
Speed Gifted ran a great race in the Metropolitan, looked to have plenty left and kick late so should run out the trip. Reckon Lodge The Deeds may have got close if Speed Gifted didn't cut across it's run half way down the straight. Seem to slow and then never get back up to that speed again. Not a great deal to go off, won it's two starts at Flemington so that is positive, should be in with a shot if given the run.
Efficient hasn't had the great results or form for almost 2 years (fairly short races though) up until the Turnbull which was a fantastic run. He needs a bit of luck the way he races but if he can get open space he is very hard to catch or hold off which is what happened in the Turnbull. Was 2-3 wide most of the race so he had the space, got a sniff and just took off. Viewed got cut by him at the start of the straight, could have tailed him, just didn't have the speed but wasn't really put in the right position to start with. You know Efficient can run the distance of 3200m, if he is ridden out of trouble i don't think anyone will beat him to the post. 3 group 1 wins and has won 4 out his 7 runs at either 2000m or over.
Viewed, well you can't write him off, super competitor, will hit the line stronger than most but like Efficient, rides from the back (well depending on the draw, doesn't mind sitting midfield if drawn inside) and will need a little luck (which he got in the Caulfield).
Both will need speed on in the race and the barrier won't be much of an issue for either so if they draw wide i wouldn't worry.
3 times they've come up against each other, all this year.
Memsie Stakes over 1400m, Viewed 4th Efficient 5th. (0.1 lengths)
Underwood Stakes over 1800m, Efficient 9th, Viewed 10th (0.5 lengths)
Turnbull Stakes over 2400m, Efficient 1st, Viewed 7th (3 lengths)
2 to 1 Efficient...
Wouldn't count out Master O'Reilly, at least in the placings. Normally thereabouts, with some luck (rides near the rear) he should be hitting the post strongly. Very good run from where it was placed at the turn in the Caulfield in my view.
If the track is wet, soft/heavy track (never know in Melbourne), watch out for Fiumicino at longish odds especially if draw on the inside. If it sits a couple deep in could be in the placings. Did a lot of work in the Sydney Cup and faded a little to finish 6th.
Ista Rareem looked really strong in the Sydney Cup (3200m) taking that out, finished really well so will run the distance.
Also reckon Kirklees will be better off after that Caulfield run. Thought it ran on well, got caught at the turn, had to push out wide and came down the middle with Master O'Reilly, wouldn't count it out.
Roman Emperor ran a very good race in the Caulfield, got in a little trouble half way down the straight but managed to get through and rode on fairly well, don't see it as a danger in the Cup though. Cummings trained horse but don't think it has the acceleration of Efficient and Viewed.
Speed Gifted ran a great race in the Metropolitan, looked to have plenty left and kick late so should run out the trip. Reckon Lodge The Deeds may have got close if Speed Gifted didn't cut across it's run half way down the straight. Seem to slow and then never get back up to that speed again. Not a great deal to go off, won it's two starts at Flemington so that is positive, should be in with a shot if given the run.
- Sep 30, 2009
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- #135
Efficient will win the Melbourne Cup easily.
Watch the Turnbull again.
Get on at 6-1.
The odds are so good, it is like stealing.
Watch the Turnbull again.
Get on at 6-1.
The odds are so good, it is like stealing.
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Melb Cup doesn't usually interest me as much as the other main races, however this year will be a beauty with the two toppies slugging it out and Speed Gifted and Alcopop waiting on the fringe
I think I will back Efficient for the first time since his 3yo season I think!
I think I will back Efficient for the first time since his 3yo season I think!
carltonblue
Cancelled
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- #137
MASTER OREILLY
was the best Melb Cup trial from the Caul Cup.
was the best Melb Cup trial from the Caul Cup.
Hoffy95
Norm Smith Medallist
Can't see a rough result like last year. Was on Viewed then and suspect I will be on again come Cup day. Was keen to back him again the day after the Melbourne Cup last year but don't like backing so far in advance - too much can go wrong and you don't get your coin back.
It has to be Viewed or Efficient. Have thrown a little e/w on Master O. Huge run winding up and 4th last year mean no queries on the trip.
If there's anything that looks a sniff at odds it's Ready To Lift (if it gets a run?). At 61's and I thought it ran on pretty damn well in the Caulfield Cup. Will be including in my multiples and possible a little e/w for shits and giggles.
Kirklees should be better for the run as well.
Not sure on Alcopop yet. Too short compared to Viewed and Efficient.
It has to be Viewed or Efficient. Have thrown a little e/w on Master O. Huge run winding up and 4th last year mean no queries on the trip.
If there's anything that looks a sniff at odds it's Ready To Lift (if it gets a run?). At 61's and I thought it ran on pretty damn well in the Caulfield Cup. Will be including in my multiples and possible a little e/w for shits and giggles.
Kirklees should be better for the run as well.
Not sure on Alcopop yet. Too short compared to Viewed and Efficient.
I rate them:
1st Tier:
Efficient
Viewed
Alcopop
2nd Tier:
Master O'Reilly
Zipping
Speed Gifted
Shocking
Hissing Sid
3rd Tier:
Roman Emperor
Kirklees
Daffodil
Vigor
I'm finding it hard matching up the form of Alcopop, Speed Gifted, Shocking and Hissing Sid with that of Efficient , Viewed, Master O'Reilly, and Zipping etc.
I've put Alcopop up with the first two for the moment, but he may belong in the 2nd Tier, which would then move Speed Gifted, Shocking and Hissing Sid down to the 3rd Tier.
Speed Gifted could potentially move up to the 1st Tier depending on how it performs alongside Zipping in the Cox Plate, but I have him in the 2nd Tier for now.
1st Tier:
Efficient
Viewed
Alcopop
2nd Tier:
Master O'Reilly
Zipping
Speed Gifted
Shocking
Hissing Sid
3rd Tier:
Roman Emperor
Kirklees
Daffodil
Vigor
I'm finding it hard matching up the form of Alcopop, Speed Gifted, Shocking and Hissing Sid with that of Efficient , Viewed, Master O'Reilly, and Zipping etc.
I've put Alcopop up with the first two for the moment, but he may belong in the 2nd Tier, which would then move Speed Gifted, Shocking and Hissing Sid down to the 3rd Tier.
Speed Gifted could potentially move up to the 1st Tier depending on how it performs alongside Zipping in the Cox Plate, but I have him in the 2nd Tier for now.
What do people make of Viewed getting just a 1kg upgrade after the Caulfield Cup win? Smallest upgrade in the past 20 years i believe. He and Efficient both now will have 58kg on their back. Seems plenty of the opposition trainers (to Viewed/Bart) believe it is a fair joke and Viewed should have been penalised a little more.
Well Efficient is Derby winner, Melbourne Cup winner and he won 2 weeks ago in a group race and has 58kg. Cant see how they can put Viewed higher who has won the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup. I see them rated the same and 58kg (correct me if i am wrong) seems right for these two equal great stayers.
iluvparis
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I have a massive go slow on Alcopop. Sure he has won easy at his last couple but he has beaten the B graders, and outside of Shocking most of those would be long long odds in the Cup. If he was 20/1 - sure I might have a nibble based on potential but at 6/1 equal second favourite only a point behind the Derby/Cup and MC/CC winner - you have got to be kidding me!!!! RIDICULOUSLY SHORT!!!! 8 points shorter than the AJC Oaks winner who just ran a gutsy 4th in the Caulfield Cup - what a joke!
He may blow them away but it would be the biggest upward spiral I have seen in racing for a long long LONG time - I am happy to risk that it won't happen. If it does - he is a freak. Happy to be against him.
It is between Viewed and Efficient for mine.
He may blow them away but it would be the biggest upward spiral I have seen in racing for a long long LONG time - I am happy to risk that it won't happen. If it does - he is a freak. Happy to be against him.
It is between Viewed and Efficient for mine.
Agree, i think you can forgive yourself if Alcopop gets up and wins it and you didn't back it. It is short odds for someone that really hasn't proved much/anything at the top level.
LordMayorJohnSo
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Im not saying that Alcopop is going to win but I think he is short because he is an unknown quantity - you described the fields he's beat the last 2 as B Graders and that might be right but he just hasn't beaten them he has thrashed them, could of won by more last start and his closing sectionals were brilliant for a horse out to 2400m for the first time. The horse that ran 4th behind him beaten 7 1/4 lengths was Zavite who has come out and ran 7th in the CC beaten 5 lengths which makes his form look good.
Granted he is probably a bit short but the bookies, tab etc would be worried about him as he is a winner, he is on the up, hitting form at the right time, out of Jeune and has no weight. I hope he wins as it would be a great story
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I thought Vigor's run was OK in the CC and won't be getting off him. Stuck 3 and 4 wide into the first turn and stayed on well.
Got some very long odds for him a long way back so fingers crossed.
Got some very long odds for him a long way back so fingers crossed.
One day we'll just get rid of handicaps and have the best set weights or WFA horses winning. Cannot stand handicappers personally.
Makes for more value when betting, but as Lee Freedman said, he is glad Super Impose had some bad luck with weather and lost his first few races so he wasn't handicapped out of every major race from then on.
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Master O'Reilly for me looks a genuine chance. Has been aimed at this race a fair way out; and has had a couple of nice trials as of late.
Backed him on Fixed Odds; Win-$18. Place-$5.25. Hopefully Master O can get a nice barrier from the big field. Fingers crossed.
Backed him on Fixed Odds; Win-$18. Place-$5.25. Hopefully Master O can get a nice barrier from the big field. Fingers crossed.
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Boxed Trifecta – Efficient, Viewed and Roman Emperor.
Put the house on it.
Put the house on it.
Speed Gifted out to $16...
mattys123
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What's Viewed paying, because by Cup Day it will be $2.00.
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