2011 Emirates Melbourne Cup......nominations

[catters078]

My kingdom of fife out for the season,

 

[bob7965]

Dunaden looks good:

• Won a G3 (beating Americain by 3.5l) over 3100m in April this year in France. In that race he was getting 3 kgs from Americain - he gets 4kg from him in the MC
• Second (beaten a short head) in a G2 in France over 3100 in May this year
• Finished in front of Americain (61kg) again in the Prix de Kergolay getting 2kgs from him. The race was won by Jukebox Jury (59kgs) and, although Dunaden was well beaten (5.7l), the trainers of both Dunaden and Americain said the race was run farcically slowly giving their horse no hope to make up ground on Jukebox Jury who led.
• Apparently set for the Melbourne Cup
• Handles all conditions (possibly slightly more effective in slow)
• French form was made to look pretty good last year

Thats why I was asking received a tip from someone that apparently helped bring it from 100's down to 41-1 when I jumped on. Is now into 21-1.

 

[sethlad]

Thats why I was asking received a tip from someone that apparently helped bring it from 100's down to 41-1 when I jumped on. Is now into 21-1.

Currently $36 Betfair which is a fair way from the $300 traded early.

seth

 

[sethlad]

What did you lads make of M Corniche today?
Had a soft run but found the line well while Saptapadi got a traditional UK ride 3/4 wide the trip & battled on ok.

While both of these are well down the order of entry they ran the quinella in the Ebor beating home
Modun,Lost In The Moment & Fox Hunt,all of which are more likely to make the Cup field???

seth

 

[plays tall 1]

Very good run from Corniche. Strong to the line.

Bauer's run was good too - took a while to get stoked up but came home pretty strong.

Could be a problem for a few of them to get into the field.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Zahra certainly did nothing wrong on him today, and seemed pretty happy with how he ran first up.

He's 41st in the order of entry, surely they don't rely on 17 others dropping out to get a run? Will they go the Lexus?

 

[sethlad]

Zahra certainly did nothing wrong on him today, and seemed pretty happy with how he ran first up.
He's 41st in the order of entry, surely they don't rely on 17 others dropping out to get a run? Will they go the Lexus?

He mentioned the Lexus weeks ago but it would be unusual for a UK horse to back up from the Saturday.
This far out theres 6 or 7 in the top 24 very doubtful:

Descarado:who knows with Gai but she said never again to 2 miles
Dreamaway:Ran in the Toorak so how are they possibly gunna get it to 2 miles?
G Harmonium:If they dont think it gets 2400m,cant see it
Linton: the only horse of LLoyd's that looks to be battling
Alcopop:after today would have to be very doubtful
Herculian Prince:surely not
Pinker Pinker: hasnt got past 1600m so surely not

Probably sees the horses in the early 30's making it but would still need another 7 or 8 to drop out

seth

 

[sethlad]

Dunaden's trainer has arrived & watched him work strongly at Werribee with C Williams in the saddle.
Is headed for the tried & true formula of the Geelong Cup before Flemington

Lucas Cranach may be headed there too if he isnt fit for Caulfield after losing both front shoes & sustaining a "small bruise" on the near fore hoof.

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/news/rvl/n_Minor_scare_for_Lucas_as_Dunaden_pleases.aspx

Meanwhile LLoyd continues his spring of entering every horse he has for every race & running them in nothing.
AFS & Midas Touch are out of C Cup & headed who knows where?

seth

 

[Cupper]

What does December Draw have to do to get a start? I know Caufield Cup winner gets automatic entry but if it doesnt win would a top 5 finish in CC bump him up the order?

 

[The_Doctor]

Cannot believe Lucas Cranach is favourite! The horse only beat B graders in Germany and only came into consideration in the market because the owners backed the hell out of it. You would be a brave man to back him as favourite

 

[iluvparis]

Totally agree Doc - going to be massive unders.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Cannot believe Lucas Cranach is favourite! The horse only beat B graders in Germany and only came into consideration in the market because the owners backed the hell out of it. You would be a brave man to back him as favourite

I shudder to think how much Sharkie has on it

 

[sethlad]

What does December Draw have to do to get a start? I know Caufield Cup winner gets automatic entry but if it doesnt win would a top 5 finish in CC bump him up the order?

He has to win to be sure,currently 37th in OOE which will be around the mark the way horses are dropping out.
From memory,a top 5 finish only gets horses past the 1st ballot clause so wouldnt help him as he's already past this point.

Shewan got 1.5kg penalty so is up to 43rd while Tanby passed the 1st clause & is now 55th.

seth

 

[PieBeast]

OWNER Lloyd Williams fears the Melbourne Cup dream could be over for the most exciting of his imports, At First Sight.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/s...or-melbourne-cup/story-fn67siys-1226164189509

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

I'm still hopeful, sort of

 

[sethlad]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/s...or-melbourne-cup/story-fn67siys-1226164189509

How would you know with Lloyd's team?
Trying to 2nd guess this barn is impossible.

Betfair yesterday says all is not lost,plenty of high $30 matched,also a stack of money for Midas Touch after he galloped at MV

seth

 

[sethlad]

So what do we take from the CC runs going forward?

Green Moon:wide all the way & very brave,not sure he has the dash to win at Flemington & still a mile down the OOE?

Tullamore:good effort,has to be in the picture

Manighar:another solid run but thats him,doesnt have the change of gear for me

Lucas Cranach:ran as well as he could although worried about the fact he's pulled up slightly lame

Unusual Suspect:ran out of his skin & strong on the line,if he was a few years younger Id have him right there

Drunken Sailor: had to go back from the barrier & ran on ok

Macedonian:came from absolute last & wide to be beaten 4.5 lengths,doubt he has the class but clearly looking for the trip

Not keen on the rest

seth

 

[The_Big_Ship]

What are your thoughts on Older Than Time sethlad? Didn't mind her run today, do you think she'll make the field?

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Manighar looks on track for a serious crack at 'The Cup'.

Genuinely excited, had a nibble on him @ $51. Bring it home baby

 

[sethlad]

What are your thoughts on Older Than Time sethlad? Didn't mind her run today, do you think she'll make the field?

Havent seen the Tatts Club Cup although I see Galizani won it,normally youd say she would struggle at Gp1 level.

Older Than Time would be right on the borderline at this stage although the way a few ahead of her went in the CC today she'll probably scrape in.

seth

 

[mattys123]

Done some looking around at some of the MC chances who didn't go around today.

I like the sound of two in particular.

Illo (sp?) who is yet to have a start in Oz, but is a German stayer now being trained by none other then J.B. Cummings, will probably go around in the MV cup next week, and is 41's at the moment.

Dunaden is the French horse who will most likely start favourite (Bauer may argue differently) in the Geelong Cup on Thursday, at 21's at the moment.

I just don't know if the Caulfied Cup form will hold up, I think it was a bloody weak version, and it may tell as much on the first Tuesday in November.

Also looking at Shamrocker if he runs home well in the Cox Plate at nice odds.

I'm well in front, and probably will be for the whole spring thanks to Southern Speed, so I'll take some risks now.

 

[larrikan]

Done some looking around at some of the MC chances who didn't go around today.

I like the sound of two in particular.

Illo (sp?) who is yet to have a start in Oz, but is a German stayer now being trained by none other then J.B. Cummings, will probably go around in the MV cup next week, and is 41's at the moment.

Dunaden is the French horse who will most likely start favourite (Bauer may argue differently) in the Geelong Cup on Thursday, at 21's at the moment.

I just don't know if the Caulfied Cup form will hold up, I think it was a bloody weak version, and it may tell as much on the first Tuesday in November.

Also looking at Shamrocker if he runs home well in the Cox Plate at nice odds.

I'm well in front, and probably will be for the whole spring thanks to Southern Speed, so I'll take some risks now.

SSSHHHHH about Shamrocker Matty lol

 

[stuziman]

Done some looking around at some of the MC chances who didn't go around today.

I like the sound of two in particular.

Illo (sp?) who is yet to have a start in Oz, but is a German stayer now being trained by none other then J.B. Cummings, will probably go around in the MV cup next week, and is 41's at the moment.

Dunaden is the French horse who will most likely start favourite (Bauer may argue differently) in the Geelong Cup on Thursday, at 21's at the moment.

I just don't know if the Caulfied Cup form will hold up, I think it was a bloody weak version, and it may tell as much on the first Tuesday in November.

Also looking at Shamrocker if he runs home well in the Cox Plate at nice odds.

I'm well in front, and probably will be for the whole spring thanks to Southern Speed, so I'll take some risks now.

Dunaden 40 on betfair

 

[sethlad]

J Jury,Fox Hunt & Red Cadeux arrived yesterday,Godolphin's Modun & Lost in the Moment are due in Monday
All are safely in the field.

http://www.godolphin.com/PictorialStory.aspx?aid=5927

seth

 

[iluvparis]

What are your thoughts on Older Than Time sethlad? Didn't mind her run today, do you think she'll make the field?

Would be unders at 1000/1. If it couldn't beat that field at Randwick yesterday it has absolute buckley's of winning a Melbourne Cup even if it did somehow get itself into the field.