2011 Emirates Melbourne Cup......nominations

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Happy that someone else took the odds available Modun,he was $201 to get here but it looks ok now.
Happy that Moroney thought he was the right type of horse.
ATR's Matt Chapman said today he didnt think he'd get 2 miles but he also said the French staying form was rubbish.....

Apparently Tanby pulled up with "mild colic" after the cup today,not sure what to make of that?

seth
 
3 horses I was on today:

Eagle Command: Thumps
Tanby: Colic
Anaaba's Legacy: Galloped on

Kiss of death or what?
 
I thought I understood Doubles when you take the same horse in both legs but after todays little effort it appears I don't.
Put a double on Tanby to do the Geelong Cup ($3.50) and Melbourne Cup ($61) double (yeah I know, its confetti now) and the price I recieved was $64 for the double.
My understanding was the two prices in the double were multiplied and then divided by two so going by that logic I was expecting to get odds of about $106.50.
Can someone explain why the price was $64. It wasn't till after I put the bet on I realised the price I got and thought it was a little stupid to put the double on considering I could of just got $61 to win the M.Cup
 

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saint mac said:
I thought I understood Doubles when you take the same horse in both legs but after todays little effort it appears I don't.
Put a double on Tanby to do the Geelong Cup ($3.50) and Melbourne Cup ($61) double (yeah I know, its confetti now) and the price I recieved was $64 for the double.
My understanding was the two prices in the double were multiplied and then divided by two so going by that logic I was expecting to get odds of about $106.50.
Can someone explain why the price was $64. It wasn't till after I put the bet on I realised the price I got and thought it was a little stupid to put the double on considering I could of just got $61 to win the M.Cup
Click to expand...

It's because they take into account Tanby winning the Geelong cup before they add his Melb cup odds to it. They assume he would be say $22 for the cup so you get $3.50 x $22 instead of the $3.5 x 64 I'm not sure how they work it out exactly. It does seem very short as you could get $43 for the Dunedan double on Monday and he was only $20 in the cup. Strange...
 
Seth or anyone, can you tell me what the chances are of Bauer getting a run in the cup?? I've backed it at $71.00... but seems still in doubt. Where is it at this stage on the OOE?? I beleive he was roughly 40th after yesterdays run.... What needs to happen for him to get in?? a load of bad runs from horses higher in the OOE in the MV cup etc?
 
My understanding is Bauer is realistically sitting around 28th-30th in the order. That's taking out horses that haven't been officially declared non starters yet but are highly doubtful.

To get in Bauer will need another run and needs to get a bit of prize money I think. Not sure how much.

The bookies obviously thinks it'll get a start.
 
Hoffy95 said:
My understanding is Bauer is realistically sitting around 28th-30th in the order. That's taking out horses that haven't been officially declared non starters yet but are highly doubtful.

To get in Bauer will need another run and needs to get a bit of prize money I think. Not sure how much.

The bookies obviously thinks it'll get a start.
Click to expand...

Does he run in The Lexus to get a start then?
 
GEELONG Cup winner Dunaden came through his impressive win yesterday without issue and was back on the Werribee track today to stretch his legs. Racing Victoria chief handicapper Greg Carpenter will announce at 11am if he will penalise Dunaden for the Melbourne Cup.He currently has 54kg in the Cup.Charlie Henson reported that Bauer had pulled up well after his luckless third in yesterday's race.Henson said Bauer, currently No.42 in the elimination order, would not run again before the Cup."We'll just have to hope there is horses who fall out," Henson said.Godolphin's Cup candidates Lost In The Moment and Modun had their first look at the Werribee track this morning, with both horses walked a lap.UK stayer Jukebox Jury cantered twice over 1600 metres.ROBERT Smerdon's promising stayer Shewan faces his D-Day on Saturday in a bid to contest the Melbourne Cup.

The above is from the Herald sun.... so i guess i might be up the creek without a horse!
 
OK, well there you go.

A run prior was probably going to be one too many before the cup anyway so it's a double edged sword. You run another race and qualify but don't have the ideal prep or don't run prior, have the ideal prep, but rely on other horses dropping out.

Would be a shame to not make it. All the other trainers will be hoping it doesn't!
 
KardiniaPark said:
He will get in. You would do better to listen to seth than some b grade racing journo from the herald sun. I saw him at $8 or something yesterday. Ridiculous price.
Click to expand...

I don't see any problem with what the journo is saying?

It's fact. The horse isn't running prior and now has to hope a few more drop out which is far from being a certainty.

Even seth will tell you that.

The bookies are still offering odds on plenty of horses who aren't even running. They are hoping people are silly enough to take the shorts on something that will pay the same if not more on the day if it runs. Why not wait till then!?
 

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This is my understanding of how the current order stands:
After the Geelong Cup:

1. Jukebox Jury
2. Americain
3. Descarado
4. Lion Tamer
5. Shamrocker
6. Midas Touch
7. Mighty High
Absolutely (spelled)
8. Manighar
Dreamaway (very doubtful)
9. Glass Harmonium (doubt)
10. Unusual Suspect
11. Drunken Sailor
12. Dunaden (before penalty)
Linton (who knows?)
13. Precedence
14. Mourayan
Alcopop (spell)
Herculian Prince (spell)
15. Red Cadeaux
16. Fox Hunt
17. Lucas Cranach
18. Hawk Island
Pinker Pinker (very doubtful)
Illustrious Blue (not going well enough)
19. Lost In The Moment
20. Illo
21. Modun
22. At First Sight (Bendigo cup wed)
Stand to Gain (very doubtful)
23. Booming
24. Older Than Time
==============
Tactic (????)
Sahara Sun
Tullamore
The Verminator
December Draw (gone)
Praecido (doubtful)
Master O’Reilly (surely not)
Moyenne Corniche
Saptapadi
Bauer
Exceptionally
Shewan
Ironstein
Lamasery
Niwot
Above Average
Hissing Sid
Green Moon
Spechenka
Showcause

** Cheers to Andy of TBV

MV Cup winner definitely can get a penalty.
Bendigo Cup has been moved up in distance & brought forward 2 weeks this year so Im assuming with Sahara Sun heading there,the winner is eligible for a penalty

Bauer wont run again & I cant see how he would get in.
Green Moon has to win the Lexus which is looking like a very hot race.

seth
 
The problem for Bauer is he isn't even qualified, or hasn't met any of the qualification/ballot requirements that are needed to even be considered for the field.

If Bauer doesn't run again before the Cup, he can't start, unless the committee use their discretionary powers, which doesn't happen too often, and with the Cumanis already having Manighar in there, I can't see the VRC bending to the will of one horse.

This was the order on Monday (before the cup), and it shows Bauer had not passed the first ballot clause, and I don't think a placing in the Geelong Cup passes any clauses either.

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/as...es Melbourne Cup Elimination Order 171011.pdf

On talent, he should be in the field, but the rules are there, so I don't think he'll get a start.
 
mattys123 said:
The problem for Bauer is he isn't even qualified, or hasn't met any of the qualification/ballot requirements that are needed to even be considered for the field.

If Bauer doesn't run again before the Cup, he can't start, unless the committee use their discretionary powers, which doesn't happen too often, and with the Cumanis already having Manighar in there, I can't see the VRC bending to the will of one horse.
Click to expand...

:confused:

This isn't the Cox Plate.

The VRC don't just decide who they think should run. It's ballot/order of entry.

Bauer runs if enough drop out. Simple as that.

EDIT: Actually looks like you are right (sorry I jumped the gun).

I think if it does come down to the VRC intervening they will get it in. Thoroughly deserves to be there.
 
He's not running at MV but who knows,Gai thinks he's "absolutely flying"
Until I hear he's out for the Spring will keep him in

"Remained hopeful he'll be fit to contest the Mackinnon"????

seth
 
sethlad said:
He's not running at MV but who knows,Gai thinks he's "absolutely flying"
Until I hear he's out for the Spring will keep him in

"Remained hopeful he'll be fit to contest the Mackinnon"????

seth
Click to expand...

Gai has confirmed this. About an hour ago.

Bensley mentioned it.
 
Yeah Bauer would need a miracle to get a start in the race. I would go as far to say it is no chance.
 
Cheers,was going on that H Sun link.

Welcome Sahara Sun,wonder if theyll go to Bendigo now?

seth
 
Ive been through Racing Victorias Melb Cup conditions doc and yesterdays run does qualify Bauer under the Melb Cup conditions. It puts him into the position in the pecking order where Seth listed him earlier. Still well down the order...
 
the good maggot said:
Ive been through Racing Victorias Melb Cup conditions doc and yesterdays run does qualify Bauer under the Melb Cup conditions. It puts him into the position in the pecking order where Seth listed him earlier. Still well down the order...
Click to expand...

Not sure im following this mate, what did you mean yesterdays run does qualify him?
 

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2011 Emirates Melbourne Cup......nominations

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