2011 Ladder Predictions - Part 2

[kaiserchief13]

Time to take a look at how wrong I was at the start of the year.

The Good:

3 of the top 4 will eiher finish there or just miss.

Freo, Sydney, North all correctly labelled middle of the road

The Bad:

The Dogs at 1.

Hawks/Saints outside 8.

Collingwood not top 2

Essendon bottom 4

Port not bottom 4

West Coast?

 

[Blue and Silver]

West Coast?

OH yeah that too.

Look admitting your own fail isn't easy

 

[fomoco04]

OH yeah that too.

Look admitting your own fail isn't easy

Lol, Well done.

 

[Valli]

You want the worst prediction?

I doubt we will ever finish bottom while we play 11 games at home.

I was so wrong. I apologise to myself and others for the ignorance shown. I just figured that we could at least win 4 or 5 games at home to steer us clear off the bottom... Our list is so bad.

 

[Bardo State]

Made some shockers

Had -

1- Collingwood (tick)
2 - Sydney (cross)
3 - Hawthorn (tick)
------------------------
4 - Freo (cross but injuries have killed them)
5 - Saint Kilda (tick)
------------------------
6 - North (cross)
7 - Adelaide o X)
8 - Melbourne (-)
------------------------
9 - Geelong (Massive cross)
10 - Carlton o)
11 - Richmond (-)
12 - Western Bulldongs (tick)
------------------------
13 - Gold Coast (-)
14 - Brisbane (tick)
15 - Essendon (Cross)
16 - Port (tick)
------------------------
17 - Westcoast (Cross)

So overall 6 good predictions, 3 OK and 8 bad ones.

Looking back the funny thing was that I copped a lot of flak about putting Port second last yet people who even suggested that Essendon/West Coast would make it anywhere near the 8 were crucified.

 

[Knight Ryders]

I think this will be one of the hardest years to predict who will finish where. I can see why people are tipping WCE and the Bombers to fill the lower part of the ladder, but 2 years ago they both finished 8/9th.

Past history doesn't necessarily equal the future; particularly with the also-rans.

Honestly, outside of Collingwood, Saints and the Cats, the next lot of teams were a bit ordinary so to speak.

I just didn't think that the Bulldogs played like a top 4 team all year and seemed to get away with some wins simply due to the brilliance of some players, who I might add are still there. They're a big unknown for me, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them slip outside the 8.

1. Collingwood - class and depth. I feel the only team that can beat Collingwood this year is themselves.
2. Geelong - embarrassed and proud. Probably their last crack at a premiership in the near future. Scott will need to introduce more youth and speed along the way.
3. Fremantle - combination of good youngsters and some gun senior players in Sandilands and Pavlich and home ground advantage should see them win enough games to finish top 4.
4. Adelaide - good draw and some really classy players. Smacked by injuries last year but despite this, very nearly made finals. Surprise packet of 2011.
5. Saints - too reliant on too few. Just how long can they keep up their brilliance? I'm predicting a slight slide for the Sainters this year.
6. Carlton - much like the Adelaide team of a few years back (with Goodwin, McLeod, Edwards and Ricciuto), a classy midfield will ensure that they are around the mark again. Memo to Ratten: Gibbs is a midfielder and a very, very good one at that.
7. Hawthorn - seem to have a weak underbelly that is stopping them from achieving to their potential. Despite this, Buddy and Rioli could fire the Hawks into the top 4 on their own if they remain fit and motivated.
8. North Melbourne - Really like their blend of experience and youth but still seem to lack that touch of brilliance apart from Boomer. I feel that Hansen could be a real bolter this year.
9. Melbourne - so much talent, so little experience.They'll be similar to the Saints in the early noughties when they simply demolished teams before inexplicably losing the next week.
10. Sydney - I'll be honest, not sure what to expect from the Swans. What effect will having their spiritual leader (Kirk) and coach have on their team?
11. West Coast - incredibly poor last year given the talent on the list. I expect an improvement from their youngsters, Le Cras to become a top 10 AFL player and Cox to return to AA form.
12. Western Bulldogs - I thought they were very ordinary last year and their record flattered them. We'll see I guess...
13. Essendon - Knights has done the dirty work, now comes the acid test. I expect a more accountable team that will build success around team work as opposed to individual brilliance. The beginning of a new midfield will be born.
14. Port Adelaide - front runners for mine who can be brilliant but can crumble under pressure.
15. Richmond - Late resurgence covered the fact that they are pretty ordinary. Riewoldt set for a much tougher year as coaches from opposing teams will have down their homework.
16. Brisbane - A huge test for Voss to find some unity with his playing group and to keep their main man, J.Brown on the park.
17. Gold Coast - They're not playing for this year, but 2-3 years down the track. With that in mind, they'll get plenty of time into their promising kids.

Got some of the positions wrong, but nailed some predictions with my comments. Adelaide was the one I got majorly wrong and some would say Fremantle. I stand by Freo having a potential top 4 list.

 

[Bardo State]

Got some of the positions wrong, but nailed some predictions with my comments. Adelaide was the one I got majorly wrong and some would say Fremantle. I stand by Freo having a potential top 4 list.

Hawthorn, West Coast Essendon

 

[Acecordy]

i got heaps wrong

 

[Knight Ryders]

Hawthorn, West Coast Essendon

I think you missed my point. In particular, I think my points about Geelong, Carlton, Essendon, Saints, Bulldogs, Port, WCE and Richmond are on the money except the comment about Le Cras.

 

[Slattery_20]

Just did a prediction thing for the whole season; but worth noting it was while I was fairly pissed off at a Dees & a North supporter and half-cut, hence quite hopeful.

1 Collingwood
2 Western Bulldogs
3 Fremantle
4 Geelong Cats
5 Carlton
6 St. Kilda
7 Essendon ***
8 Hawthorn

9 Sydney Swans
10 Adelaide Crows
11 North Melbourne
12 Melbourne
13 Port Adelaide
14 West Coast Eagles
15 Richmond
16 Gold Coast Suns
17 Brisbane Lions

Cold hard light of day; drop us down two-three spots & Sydney come in.
Is my prediction anyway. Take or leave.

My last go.
Like everyone else in the world I got WCE, the Dogs and Freo fairly wrong. Hawks as well.
Not unhappy with the rest.

 

[SirJimi05]

your on, bookmark this petrie will score more goals than kennedy in 2011

Right your on. Petrie scores more goals i'll bang you a 100 dollar coles myer gift card. Kennedy scores more goals you send me a 50 dollar coles myer gift card.

Home and Away only.

Guess I might cop a red for this bump but I feel it is my duty to take one for the team.

Did Ziebull send you that $50 Coles Myer gift card yet, Phil?

 

[Jade]

Well if you are going to throw a prediction out there you have to man up and point out where you were right and wrong.

Time for a 2011 prediction me thinks. My 2011 ladder had some misses - Had Collingwood seventh, Freo 15th , and Adelaide for the flag

But had some fairly accurate hits as well - Had Hawthorn in eighth, Carlton in tenth (neither were far off) and predicted Geelong would begin a slide.

1. Collingwood
Seems like a cop out to predict the reigning premier at number one, but to be honest who else is there?

Strengths: Midfield is exceptional, and ruck division is very bloody good. Team is incredibly even, and probably more importantly game plan is very, very good. Run down pressure style done as a team is incredibly effective, and disposal skills are very good. Young list that is already performing, best players are all at an age that would suggest they won't make a dramatic fall next year.

Weaknesses: I still see holes in the side - number one target in Cloke is far exceeded by others such as Reiwoldt and Franklin, defensive posts are poorer than a few sides. Despite the apparent depth, an injury to Swan, Jolly, Cloke or Maxwell would severely test the side in those areas.

Verdict: Whilst I strongly disagree with the assertion by some that Collingwood are amongst the best teams of the last 15-20 years, it’s hard to fault the list and game plan, and even harder to find a suitable challenger. Premiers again for me - God help us if they get to sixteen....

HIT - Well it didn't take any great insight to predict Collingwood would be up there. I'll likely repeat this prediction for 2012.

2. Fremantle

*ducks* Come on, is it really that hard to see Freo improve enough to overtake the Cats, Dogs and Saints?

Strengths: Sandilands is nigh on unbeatable in the ruck, Pavlich is an absolute superstar. Midfield is very effective and Fremantle have gotten more out of recent draftees then most clubs, indicating significant improvement is still possible.

Weaknesses: Running half backs are very good, but KPP are still a problem. If a team is able to break even in the middle, it can put pressure on the back half. Overly reliant on Sandilands, injury would be devastating. And finally, the GF DOES have to be played on the MCG.

Verdict: Quick, snappy side with a dominant ruckman and a hell of a lot of upside. Better performances on the road in 2010, and were only one win from a top four finish. Only way is up I think.

MISS - Whilst the prediction was clearly wrong, I still maintain that the quality is there in Freo's list.

3. Western Bulldogs

Can you still call third a bridesmaid? The also-rans of the last few years will 'also-run' again...

Strengths: Very quick side that can move the ball just as quickly. Solid midfield stocks including one of the games best in Cooney and a great supporting cast. Barry Hall and Brain Lake are exceptional KPPs. Excellent draft period in 2010, good mix of youth and experience.

Weaknesses: Injury to Hall is devastating to forward line. Injury to Lake is even worse for the backline. Ruck stocks are sketchy, relying on ball winners to take the ball from a contest instead of clear advantage. Tendency to implode when faced with high quality opposition. Vulnerable to quick movement of the ball.

Verdict: Whilst it's hard to fault the side too much, it continues to fall at the last hurdle for a reason - it's best is not good enough for a flag. A lack of ruck strength means that the midfield is required to win the ball, and when faced with an equal or superior midfield they are beaten. Another season oh-so-close but so-bloody-far....

MISS - Way off on the prediction, however I'm happy with the above write up. Was spot on in relation to the impact injury to Lake would have, and the strength of its ruck division. They did however, fall flat on their faces and I did not predict that.

4. St Kilda

Not many teams would have won as many games as these guys over the last two years and not jag a flag. Kind of feel sorry for them.

Strengths: Outstanding ball winning midfield, Lenny Hayes does NOT get the credit he deserves. Best key position forward in the league. Strong ruck division, exceptional team orientated defense. Brendan Goddard might be the best all round player in the league.

Weaknesses: Over reliance on Reiwoldt, Kosi just does not consistently perform. Best players (with the exception of Goddard) are far too close to thirty for comfort. Undeniable ability to implode at the pointy end of the season. Inability to adapt to changes in a game.

Verdict: Where does the improvement in this side come from? Goddard played out of his freakin skin and still couldn't get them over the line (where is the Norm Smith douches?). Its a very good side, but those windows don't stay open for long and I get the feeling the Saints have missed theirs.

MISS - The write up was good, but just like the Dogs the extent of the fall was not predicted. Wasn't Hayes a massive loss? And Reiwoldt just couldn't get going all year.

5. Geelong

Welcome to the OTHER side of the mountain Cats.

Strengths: Outstanding depth of midfield talent despite the loss of Ablett. Disposal of the ball is elite, has been for years. A well oiled machine that knows how to, and is used to winning games of football.

Weaknesses: No Ablett - losses like that can't be covered, no matter how badly you want to. Relatively weak forward line - a fact glossed over by the utter dominance enjoyed by its midfield. Lack of leg speed, little development of youth. Aging list.

Verdict: It happens to all the great ones. When you are on top, the end seems so far away and then all of a sudden its there. In their heart of hearts I believe most Cats fans realise its over. Quality in the side won’t let them slip too far too quickly, but slip they will.

DOUBLE BLOODY MISS - I don't think I'm alone here in erronously predicting the demise of Geelong.

6. Hawthorn

They can win a final – much as it pains me...

Strengths: Top few players match the best in the league. Franklin, Rioli and Hodge are all stars. Midfield is very strong, plenty of ball winning capacity. Can score heavily. Mature bodies for a reasonably young side. Excellent on-field leadership. Plenty of X-Factor.

Weaknesses: Poor back half, a break even midfield will normally result in a loss to the Hawks. Heavy reliance on Franklin to control the 50m arc. Questionable ruck division. On the spot coaching (ability to adapt to a changing game) is poor.

Verdict: Its best is very good. When the midfield fires and Franklin is up and about they are very hard to beat. But whilst its midfield is strong, it is not the strongest in the league and once beaten, so are the Hawks..

HIT - I'm going with hit here, because as predicted, they did win a final (in the second week instead of the first). It's best is definetely good enough. Absolutely robbed of a GF spot this year.

7. Sydney

Has a team ever done so well out of recycled players?
Strengths: Capacity to shut down opposition sides is very good. Even spread of contributors. Dis-proportionate ground is a definite home field advantage. Good personnel flexibility.

Weaknesses: Large grounds such as the MCG are vastly different to the SCG. Best players are aging. Heavy reliance on Adam Goodes. Leg speed through middle is questionable. Poor defensive line (masked by capacity to win the hard ball).

Verdict: Sydney are not a premiership threat, nor are they are terrible side. They are middle of the pack with the advantage of the SCG likely to win a couple of games.

HIT - Couple of spots different to predicted. Write up was a reasonable description, particularly the verdict.

8. Richmond

Yes shock horror. The Tigers.

Strengths: Outstanding young midfield talent. Good up and coming KPP stocks including the reigning Coleman medallist. Well coached with genuine belief in ability.

Weaknesses: Under developed ruck division, over reliance on Reiwoldt. Smaller bodies in midfield. They are Richmond.

Verdict: One thing Richmond have done better then Melbourne, is maintain some larger bodies going into 2011. They won’t be as easily pushed around. Record for second half of 2010 was pretty good. Might surprise.

HIT - I'm actually reasonably happy with this one. We're playing for ninth in Round 24. I'm very happy with my comparison to Melbourne (who at the start of the year were widely tipped into the eight), and my description of its strengths and weaknesses.

9. Essendon

Best is pretty good, have beaten some very good sides recently. Just need to level out.

Strengths: Very strong ruck division, possibly strongest in the league. Excellent KPP prospect stocks at both ends of the grounds. Plenty of leg speed. X-Factor and capacity to defeat highly fancied opponents. No Knights.

Weaknesses: Poor midfield with the exception of Watson. Younger list needing game time. Poor disposal at times. Few options for running off half back.

Verdict: Deplorable second half of 2010 should not mask the depth of talent on the list. Consistency naturally comes with game time and Essendon has several best 22 players approaching the 50-100 game mark. Can win games.

HIT - Most years (despite accusations of bias) I am able to get relatively close in predicting the Bombers. slightly higher than my prediction this year.

10. North Melbourne

Mundane side perhaps experiencing a false dawn.

Strengths: Strong midfield prospects with great leadership potential. Excellent on field leadership through senior players. Good leg speed.

Weaknesses: Poor KPP stocks. Midfield talent is largely young. Questionable ability to kick a winning score.

Verdict: A little over excited about finishing ninth, but cast your eye at the percentage and this is a team that gets pumped when it loses. Is building a solid list that needs some KPPs. Not going to be a significant force in 2011.

HIT - Spot on the money; not much more to say.

11. Carlton

Where is the improvement coming from?

Strengths: Very good midfield on the attack. Reasonable ruck division. Some good KPP prospects.

Weaknesses: Poor defensive team setup and mindset. KPPs do not match midfield in development. Poor coach.

Verdict: Very much a middle of the road side. Midfield has the strength to win it games, but teams that run off of half back counter them with such ease I’m surprised it isn’t done more often. Will win some, will lose some.

MISS - What can I say? I can make a level headed prediction involving Essendon, but can't see past my blinding hatred for Carlton.

12. Melbourne

I think they’ve gone too far with getting rid of the larger bodies.

Strengths: Classy midfield, though a little on the young side. Very good defensive posts. Reasonable ruck division and plenty of room for improvement

Weaknesses: Far too many small bodies in the team, too reliant on younger stars to stand up to an entire season. Poor forward prospects (Watts included). Potential loss of valuable leadership skills.

Verdict: Went one or two players too far in culling the list I think. This will be a good side no doubt, but geez they are going to cop a battering in 2011. Just hope they don’t suffer any long term injuries because of it.[/quote]

DOUBLE HIT - Bang on here. I remember arguing the point in a few threads regarding Melbourne. Much as I recall Jim Stynes saying that it was 'bull****' that they expected success to come, the actions of everyone else says thats exactly what will happen. Load up with early draft picks and it will just happen - guess what, it doesn't.[/quote]

13. Port Adelaide

Who?

Strengths: Mid-sized forwards look the goods at the moment. Good defensive prospects. Youngish list with plenty of room for improvement. Midfield has some star quality (though sparing). Reasonable ruck division.

Weaknesses: Lack of quality tall forwards. Only moderate leg speed. Poor disposal.

Verdict: I’ll happily fess up and say I know little about Ports prospects next year. I picked them reasonably well last year, and nothing I’ve seen tells me we are in for a dramatic improvement in 2011.

HIT - Nearly said miss; they are freakin shocking.

14. Adelaide

All that experience gone has got to hurt.

Strength: Excellent KPP prospects, especially forward. Young talented midfield. Good leg speed.

Weaknesses: Lack of experience, poor defensive prospects. Lack of crumbing small forwards.

Verdict: I picked them for the flag last year (shows what my prediction here is worth). But considering how poorly they performed in 2010, combined with the loss of experience I don’t see an immediate climb for them.

HIT - Having said that, I will definetely be placing them higher in my 2012 prediction.

15. Gold Coast

Too young I reckon.

Strengths: Gary Ablett. A host of exceptional young talent. Unknown quantity to most sides.

Weaknesses: Far too young. Little to know forward prospects to speak of.

Verdict: Who the hell knows? I don’t think anyone expects them to win too many, but it is a talented squad. My guess is come 2014 they’ll be the other end of my prediction.

HIT - Not winning any awards for predicting GC at the bottom end of the table.

16. West Coast

Daylight at the end of the tunnel is a LONG way away.

Strengths: That damn Frenchman. Strong ruck division.

Weaknesses: Moderate pace in the midfield, very poor key position stocks. Very poor disposal. Young list.

Verdict: An aging Dean Cox, inconsistent Natanui and broken Kerr aren’t conducive to winning games. Will take time and quite a few beatings in 2011.

UNHOLY, HORRENDOUS, DISASTROUS MISS - Who the hell predicted top four??

17. Brisbane

Absolutely GAWN.

Strengths: Young midfield has talent. Sturdy defensive prospects.

Weaknesses: Bloody hell where do you start? A broken forward line, a midfield that will have to be carried by Simon Black, a poor coach, disenchanted players, too many recycled list fillers.

Verdict: Prepare for rock bottom.

MISS - I know the end position wasn't far off this, but they really showed some fight this year.

 

[Liam Boy]

Got some of the positions wrong, but nailed some predictions with my comments.

Mostly, but the Lachie Hansen comment was quite far off the mark too