2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup thread and Formtalk (Merged)

[sethlad]

Seth,
Is Red Cateaux any chance, I just love the name!

Red Cadeaux,yep

seth

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Red Cadeaux,yep

seth

Close enough lol...funny story had a cocktail with a similar name in Russia lol. Hope the horse wins. I won't complain if Americain does...just as long as Gai's spud Gold horse doesn't win after costing me money!

 

[rideclutch]

Americain, Team Williams, Mount Athos drawn well. Dunaden, Red Cadeux slightly wide.

 

[GOAUS!]

Cup forecast is getting worse. Wet weather looking likely:

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml

If the track's slow or worse it'll suit Tac de B, Galileo's Choice and Fiorente. It won't trouble Americain or Dunaden too much.

Forecast for rain keeps getting pushed a little further out each day late Monday becomes Tuesday Morning, then Tuesday Afternoon. It may miss the day altogether.

 

[sethlad]

Here we go:

http://www.racenet.com.au/news/84925/2012-Melbourne-Cup---Field-and-barrier-draw

seth

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

MQFP from 1 will need to get away nicely to have any chance you'd think? No real tactical speed from what I've seen?

 

[sethlad]

Weather to play its part,Luca's are the only Internationals that dont want the rain

seth

 

[superfreak]

Galileo's Choice is a very, very good bet. Have Gatewood in the Geelong Cup running into GC in the Cup.

 

[roostersgal4eva]

I mean that I was hoping to hear something like Shawardi at 30-1 is jumping out of its skin, instead all I am getting is Americain as the one to watch and at 6-1 he isn't really worth the bet.

Its not just Americain who's the one to watch, his jockey not doing too shabbily just quietly....

Need to find good ideas to get a trifecta or a boxed one to add with Americain to get some value

 

[sethlad]

Stewards update:Americain- Glue On Shoes First Time - Concussion Plates Off Again'

seth

 

[sethlad]

sad to lose a previous winner but thats a serious innings

http://www.theage.com.au/sport/hors...out-after-long-retirement-20121103-28qvi.html

seth

 

[roostersgal4eva]

Stewards update:Americain- Glue On Shoes First Time - Concussion Plates Off Again'

seth

Hmm - in laymens terms?

 

[sethlad]

Hmm - in laymens terms?

traditionally used on horses who are having issues with their feet.
as he lost both front shoes in the C Cup,they are going to the glue ons
personally its an issue for me but his trainer is a freak so i guess you need to make up your own mind

seth

 

[davis_756]

Shahwardi can be running 1200m in under a minute, it isn't going to make one difference in the Cup with everyone in the top 35 passed fit.

I think you missed the point, I was hoping to hear one of the longer odds internationals was going well, instead its the favs.

 

[Mobythepom]

UK bookmakers refund bets on horses balloted out. Does anyone know where I can get a reliable list of which horses were balloted out?

 

[Commando]

Cavalryman, simply because I like to look for a bit of value.

Red Cadaeux could break the barrier 18 duck.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

I'm liking the 51/1 offered for TDB especially with the wet weather forecast.
Anyone else who's been following it glad with the odds??

 

[roostersgal4eva]

Cavalryman, simply because I like to look for a bit of value.

Red Cadaeux could break the barrier 18 duck.

Might wrap those two with Americain for a box tri & Americain for a win & place

 

[KardiniaPark]

I have no idea on this overseas form so bare with me... but isn't Joshua Tree one of the best stayers in the world? Foirente smashed him over 2400m on level weights (58kg) he drops down to 53.5 here, in the same race he also beat Red Cadeaux by over 4 lengths and gets a 1/2kg in his favour for it. His sire Monsun, sired the 2005 german horse of the year and it states they are strong types that only start peaking at 5yo.

Am I overrating Joshua Tree? I saw he just won another group 1 in Canada but I have no idea if that's hard to do! I would just assume that from what I have heard that if JT came here he would probably go around favourite?

Seth i'm sure you have more of an idea about him...just thought it was worth throwing out there.

 

[deledio_gun]

I noticed the same thing last night KP. The concern for me was the start before that it ran a good 11-12 lengths behind Dunaden and RC. I understand that was at level weights so it has a nice weight swing in this but if you watch that race - Hardwicke - Dunaden runs into brick wall after brick wall and still finishes 2nd. I'd like to see the race Fiorente beats them but can't seem to find it.

On that run though it has obviously got the potential though through the RC formlines.

 

[sethlad]

I have no idea on this overseas form so bare with me... but isn't Joshua Tree one of the best stayers in the world? Foirente smashed him over 2400m on level weights (58kg) he drops down to 53.5 here, in the same race he also beat Red Cadeaux by over 4 lengths and gets a 1/2kg in his favour for it. His sire Monsun, sired the 2005 german horse of the year and it states they are strong types that only start peaking at 5yo.
Am I overrating Joshua Tree?

Yeh he's a good stayer but wouldnt put him in the top few in the world.
Fiorente is the toughest to line up because it almost seems like an afterthought.
That race was odd,they came down different sides like a straight race & he clearly beat them but was ordinary his next run in France.
Could be the RC of this year but a very good mate who has senn him race says he wont run 3200m
down a well?

seth

 

[sethlad]

I noticed the same thing last night KP. The concern for me was the start before that it ran a good 11-12 lengths behind Dunaden and RC. I understand that was at level weights so it has a nice weight swing in this but if you watch that race - Hardwicke - Dunaden runs into brick wall after brick wall and still finishes 2nd. I'd like to see the race Fiorente beats them but can't seem to find it.
On that run though it has obviously got the potential though through the RC formlines.

heres the replay,ground was also soft

http://www1.skysports.com/racing/re...-07-2012/princess-of-waless-goldsmiths-stakes

seth

 

[half_back_flank]

I think you missed the point, I was hoping to hear one of the longer odds internationals was going well, instead its the favs.

I know, but Americain is the favorite for a reason.

For the record a few have given Galileo's Choice a tick, hasn't missed a beat for 3 weeks and trackwork has been good.

Helps that Weld seems bullish too.

 

[half_back_flank]

Fiorente/Joshua Tree/Red Cadeaux race, i have read from a good judge that Fiorente was on the best part of the track of the three. There was also a good chance that Red Cadeaux was over the hill, being his last hit out before being freshened for Tuesday.

 

[mayhem]

I know, but Americain is the favorite for a reason.

For the record a few have given Galileo's Choice a tick, hasn't missed a beat for 3 weeks and trackwork has been good.

Helps that Weld seems bullish too.

The stable have also been backing him.