None, and good luck picking a winner in any other race. The cup is the easiest race of the day!
*edit- Actually race ten is the easiest, narrowed that down to 4
2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup thread and Formtalk (Merged)
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None, and good luck picking a winner in any other race. The cup is the easiest race of the day!
*edit- Actually race ten is the easiest, narrowed that down to 4
Davedinkum
Team Captain
have a had a look into the cup not very confident on anything but my top 5 are
Galileo's Choice, Mount Athos, Zabeelionaire,Ethiopia and Kelinni
agree with what was said about Americain with the ground being to hard and putting the glue on also i think Dunaden has a bit to much weight will finish between 5th - 10th
Galileo's Choice, Mount Athos, Zabeelionaire,Ethiopia and Kelinni
agree with what was said about Americain with the ground being to hard and putting the glue on also i think Dunaden has a bit to much weight will finish between 5th - 10th
Greening Magic
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None, and good luck picking a winner in any other race. The cup is the easiest race of the day!
*edit- Actually race ten is the easiest, narrowed that down to 4
Tough card as usual on cup day KP. Really keen on Hot Lover in the last.
Ah yes, but these types of no business bobbing up in August when they can bob up two days before the race.
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Yeh i think Americain beats Dunaden with the same run ie all is fair (which it certainly isnt in horse racing).
Do people know if Mourayan can get the distance? really hasnt done much wrong since its spell. Will be riding its 4th up and has been getting better with each run. Beat LOH 2 runs back who since went on to run a very good 3rd in CC beating Americain, than last start over 2000 again beat Dare to Dream who since ran 2nd to beat Gatewood in the lexus.
Has been scratched from its last 2 entries into 3200.
I think if you like Red Cadeaux you have to also like Fiorente after it beat it pretty well in the goldsmith. Also much better value.
GC in its last 8 hasnt ran anything worse than second although im not sure if its beaten anything either.
LOH and MQFP certainly like the first more because its run in the CC probably went under the radar a little. The only thing is Mouryan beat it with 2 extra kgs on its back in a shorter race.
Think im happy to rule out Maluckyday, Mount Athos and ill take on Dunaden.
Question Red Cadeaux and LOH barrier draws.
Do people know if Mourayan can get the distance? really hasnt done much wrong since its spell. Will be riding its 4th up and has been getting better with each run. Beat LOH 2 runs back who since went on to run a very good 3rd in CC beating Americain, than last start over 2000 again beat Dare to Dream who since ran 2nd to beat Gatewood in the lexus.
Has been scratched from its last 2 entries into 3200.
I think if you like Red Cadeaux you have to also like Fiorente after it beat it pretty well in the goldsmith. Also much better value.
GC in its last 8 hasnt ran anything worse than second although im not sure if its beaten anything either.
LOH and MQFP certainly like the first more because its run in the CC probably went under the radar a little. The only thing is Mouryan beat it with 2 extra kgs on its back in a shorter race.
Think im happy to rule out Maluckyday, Mount Athos and ill take on Dunaden.
Question Red Cadeaux and LOH barrier draws.
PieBeast
Brownlow Medallist
Thought race 8 was the easiest on the program, 5 chances at best and I'm pretty keen on Tribal Rock.None, and good luck picking a winner in any other race. The cup is the easiest race of the day!
*edit- Actually race ten is the easiest, narrowed that down to 4
Race 9 is an absolute nightmare, reckon having ten in the quaddie doesn't guarantee you a winner.
Along with Cornell, Assertive Eagle and Just Discreet.
Your name is Tom Hand ? Does that make you 5 times better than Tom Thumb? Heyooooooo
Hand
Don't think, Do.
Good preview by sportal.
http://www.sportal.com.au/horseracing-opinion-display/melbourne-cuphorse-by-horse-207216
http://www.sportal.com.au/horseracing-opinion-display/melbourne-cuphorse-by-horse-207216
The_Doctor
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Im warming up to Sanagas for the multiples or place bet, he worked home reasonably well in the Caulfield Cup and gives the impression 2 miles at Flemington will suit. That and he is trained by the master. Only real worry is he had been racing in weak class races before even coming to Aus, would like to hear Bart's thoughts on him first
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Bart's rarely show anything until their Grand Final, he'll improve. Not enough to place imo, but he will definitely improve.
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Never raced past 2400 metres as a 7 year old. I don't think it's going to happen mate.
The_Doctor
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I cant see it being any easier on a good track. Cup day is just a day i play the exotics for smaller stakes and hope for a big dividend
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So many different opinions going around.
I cant honestly choose between about 5 or 6 of them.
I cant honestly choose between about 5 or 6 of them.
Look2Me4Guidance
Destination Club Supporter
With you on Lights of Heaven mate. Liked in the CC and that run only made me believe stronger. Can run the 3200m no probs. $23 is great odds.
Look2Me4Guidance
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Chism
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Can we talk about the Melbourne Cup now and leave the personal stuff out.
nobbyiscool
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right. well, i've listened to the experts, i've read the papers, i've studied the form. it's too hard for me. i don't know who the winner is.
this spring though, i've won some quaddies by being able to pick out the horses that won't win.
Americain - $12 into $5.50 on the back of a change of jockey is ridiculous. Yes, Americain's a great horse. Yes, he would've won more group ones in Australia with better riding. But he's not weighted to win this one. And while I haven't been able to do the speed for the whole race, I don't think Americain can beat Dunaden.
Dunaden - I love this horse, and I don't like picking against it. But - and this is to take nothing away from his run last year, which won me a motza - he's a 2400m horse, he's not a two miler. I think the weight is going to be too much. Though he showed in the Caulfield Cup that his barrier doesn't matter. It won't shock me to see him win, and I'll keep him in the quaddie. But I'd be laying him elsewhere.
Red Cadeaux - has great form around Dunaden. Is better weighted than Dunaden. His run last year was incredible, and also won me money on an astute place bet. But he's done nothing yet to prove he's anything other than Dunaden's bitch. If Dunaden can't win, Red Cadeaux can't.
Mount Athos - why do people keep backing horses that haven't raced in Australia? Hasn't this been repeatedly shown to not result in Melbourne Cup wins? Could anyone even name an international who won without a run in Australia? Since I've been old enough to be a student of racing, Dunaden, Americain and Media Puzzle all came through the Geelong Cup, Delta Blues came through the Caulfield Cup. Vintage Crop might've done it first up - it was before my time, and in any case was 20 years ago.
Ethiopia - has dropped back out to $21 this morning, where he should be. I just think he's too lightly raced in too big a field, and while many were excited by his Cox Plate run, it made me wonder if the trainer isn't sure how to run him. I think on Wednesday he'll be favourite for next years Melbourne Cup.
Gallileo's Choice - see Mount Athos.
Maluckyday - I hope he can win - I've got a long range bet on him. I know his last sectional in Geelong was frightening, but I've been telling anyone that would listen that we should glean nothing whatsoever from that race. This is even truer after watching Gatewood on Saturday. Let's be real - he hasn't won in 2 years, and perhaps more than any of the qualified runners, the Geelong Cup ended up being a crap lead up race because it was one of very few runs he had, and it was a shit race.
Of course, there's a dozen other horses that can't win, but i'm only really addressing the favourites. i don't reckon any of the top rated horses will win - I think the winner will be good value.
while I'm usually happy to back my rationale for horses not winning (which is more in depth than what I've described here), my rationale for horses winning should not be listened to. I'll post the horses I've narrowed it down to, but no one should pay any attention. (these are in number order, not in order of preference)
Jakkalberry - this is the type of international that I see winning the Melbourne Cup - they race the European summer, they come out here, they have one good hit out, and they run. For the record, I don't consider finishing 13th in a quality Caulfield Cup field any worse a lead up than those who won the Geelong Cup, because while it's a good lead up race - it's no better lead up than the Caulfield, and that's a better race. Doesn't have a lot of form around other cup runners, but is 4kgs better in the weights than when beaten by Dunaden earlier this year. Was luckless in the Caulfield, worth a spec at odds.
Glencadam Gold - if you rate Kellini as a chance, then you have to rate Glencadam Gold. He brained Kellini in the Metrop. Of course there are concerns - a hint of an injury last week, the fact that he's been up (although lightly raced) since August, and the fact that you can't match up his formline against Kellini without matching it against a host of Caulfield Cup horses. I'm prepared to forgive the CC ride with Berry back on board and overs to be had.
My Quest For Peace - to look at his most recent form around Dunaden and Red Cadeaux, he actually has very few redeeming qualities (it looks a little better if you go back further). But his Caulfield Cup run was impressive, and he just strikes me as another one of "that type" of international horse that wins.
Precedence - I only just included, but there's a couple of reasons. One is that you should never rule out the Bart horse, and I reckon he's better than Sanagas. Another is that I reckon a couple of seasons back when he was on fire and couldn't be beaten - he knows how to win. The other reason is that you look back at his last 3 runs, and there were genuine excuses for all of them. I don't think I'll be betting on Precedence, but for the purposes of talking about live vs non-live chances, I've had to include Precedence.
this spring though, i've won some quaddies by being able to pick out the horses that won't win.
Americain - $12 into $5.50 on the back of a change of jockey is ridiculous. Yes, Americain's a great horse. Yes, he would've won more group ones in Australia with better riding. But he's not weighted to win this one. And while I haven't been able to do the speed for the whole race, I don't think Americain can beat Dunaden.
Dunaden - I love this horse, and I don't like picking against it. But - and this is to take nothing away from his run last year, which won me a motza - he's a 2400m horse, he's not a two miler. I think the weight is going to be too much. Though he showed in the Caulfield Cup that his barrier doesn't matter. It won't shock me to see him win, and I'll keep him in the quaddie. But I'd be laying him elsewhere.
Red Cadeaux - has great form around Dunaden. Is better weighted than Dunaden. His run last year was incredible, and also won me money on an astute place bet. But he's done nothing yet to prove he's anything other than Dunaden's bitch. If Dunaden can't win, Red Cadeaux can't.
Mount Athos - why do people keep backing horses that haven't raced in Australia? Hasn't this been repeatedly shown to not result in Melbourne Cup wins? Could anyone even name an international who won without a run in Australia? Since I've been old enough to be a student of racing, Dunaden, Americain and Media Puzzle all came through the Geelong Cup, Delta Blues came through the Caulfield Cup. Vintage Crop might've done it first up - it was before my time, and in any case was 20 years ago.
Ethiopia - has dropped back out to $21 this morning, where he should be. I just think he's too lightly raced in too big a field, and while many were excited by his Cox Plate run, it made me wonder if the trainer isn't sure how to run him. I think on Wednesday he'll be favourite for next years Melbourne Cup.
Gallileo's Choice - see Mount Athos.
Maluckyday - I hope he can win - I've got a long range bet on him. I know his last sectional in Geelong was frightening, but I've been telling anyone that would listen that we should glean nothing whatsoever from that race. This is even truer after watching Gatewood on Saturday. Let's be real - he hasn't won in 2 years, and perhaps more than any of the qualified runners, the Geelong Cup ended up being a crap lead up race because it was one of very few runs he had, and it was a shit race.
Of course, there's a dozen other horses that can't win, but i'm only really addressing the favourites. i don't reckon any of the top rated horses will win - I think the winner will be good value.
while I'm usually happy to back my rationale for horses not winning (which is more in depth than what I've described here), my rationale for horses winning should not be listened to. I'll post the horses I've narrowed it down to, but no one should pay any attention. (these are in number order, not in order of preference)
Jakkalberry - this is the type of international that I see winning the Melbourne Cup - they race the European summer, they come out here, they have one good hit out, and they run. For the record, I don't consider finishing 13th in a quality Caulfield Cup field any worse a lead up than those who won the Geelong Cup, because while it's a good lead up race - it's no better lead up than the Caulfield, and that's a better race. Doesn't have a lot of form around other cup runners, but is 4kgs better in the weights than when beaten by Dunaden earlier this year. Was luckless in the Caulfield, worth a spec at odds.
Glencadam Gold - if you rate Kellini as a chance, then you have to rate Glencadam Gold. He brained Kellini in the Metrop. Of course there are concerns - a hint of an injury last week, the fact that he's been up (although lightly raced) since August, and the fact that you can't match up his formline against Kellini without matching it against a host of Caulfield Cup horses. I'm prepared to forgive the CC ride with Berry back on board and overs to be had.
My Quest For Peace - to look at his most recent form around Dunaden and Red Cadeaux, he actually has very few redeeming qualities (it looks a little better if you go back further). But his Caulfield Cup run was impressive, and he just strikes me as another one of "that type" of international horse that wins.
Precedence - I only just included, but there's a couple of reasons. One is that you should never rule out the Bart horse, and I reckon he's better than Sanagas. Another is that I reckon a couple of seasons back when he was on fire and couldn't be beaten - he knows how to win. The other reason is that you look back at his last 3 runs, and there were genuine excuses for all of them. I don't think I'll be betting on Precedence, but for the purposes of talking about live vs non-live chances, I've had to include Precedence.
somethingrandom
Team Captain
IMO nothing we have seen race this spring can beat Dunaden. The talk before the caulfield cup was that he was behind in preparation and the target was the Melbourne cup, yet he still won easily. If this is true and he has improved, the extra 1kg shouldn't be a factor. It's the 5 horses we haven't seen here that worry me. Has anyone won the cup without a lead up race in Australia ?
Red Cadeaux came within a fingernail of doing it last year, so it's not impossible.
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