2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup thread and Formtalk (Merged)

[somethingrandom]

Red Cadeaux came within a fingernail of doing it last year, so it's not impossible.

I should have said 5 horses we haven't seen here this spring (Red Cadeaux is one of those).

 

[nobbyiscool]

in looking through the fields tomorrow, is it just me, or do they look a slightly better quality than cup day usually is?

some ridiculously massive fields tomorrow though. a $100 quaddie will be lucky to get you 15% tomorrow i think.

 

[Lockyer24]

I have tipped the last 4 winners and cleaned up year after year in other races but this year have barely had a bet due a heavy work load.

Your Post on 31st October in Bay 13:

I actually rate this one of the most open Cups in recent memory, going through the form and talking to insiders i reckon there are a lot more chances than you would think.

Anyway without any confidence at all about my tips for the first time this spring here we go.

1) Moyenne Corniche- Yep thats right another roughie but has form around a few of these, loves cut in the track and loved his run in the Herbet Power, his record above 2000m is very very consistent and if he can get a decent run middle of the pack look out because i reckon he has the best finishing burst of all the internationals.

Your top pick actually ran 16th.

 

[somethingrandom]

Red Cadeaux came within a fingernail of doing it last year, so it's not impossible.

Duh, I read that wrong. totally agree

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Has anyone won the cup without a lead up race in Australia ?

0/61 I believe, but Red Cadeaux nearly altered that last year.

I'll be playing around LOH. Only mare in the race who has taken the same lead in as previous mares to win in Etheral and the Diva. Just need it to get cover early.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Your top pick actually ran 16th.

Not the great Moyenne Corniche?!

 

[KardiniaPark]

IMO nothing we have seen race this spring can beat Dunaden. The talk before the caulfield cup was that he was behind in preparation and the target was the Melbourne cup, yet he still won easily. If this is true and he has improved, the extra 1kg shouldn't be a factor. It's the 5 horses we haven't seen here that worry me. Has anyone won the cup without a lead up race in Australia ?

I'm pretty sure the talk was that he had been aimed at the Caulfield and not the Melbourne. I still think he can win though.

 

[shotgun_blues]

I'm liking a few roughies and will be working around these:

Sanagas - Form looks shocking, but set for this. Improving each start, only beaten 4.5 lengths last start. I expect it to run top 6 at least.

Glendacam Gold - Will forgive Caulfield Cup run. Great form before that.

Kelinni - I see not a single reason not to include this horse, ticks all the boxes, form, weight, jockey.

Jakkalberry - Another that I will give a 2nd chance to after an ordinary display in the CC. Will run much better than that.

Mount Athos - Could do a Vintage Crop.

My Quest For Peace - My pick to win.

For 1 reason or another my process of elimination has narrowed it down to these 6.

 

[KardiniaPark]

0/61 I believe, but Red Cadeaux nearly altered that last year.

I'll be playing around LOH. Only mare in the race who has taken the same lead in as previous mares to win in Etheral and the Diva. Just need it to get cover early.

That's pretty troubling but the fact Red Cadeaux basically won last year gives me SOME hope it can be done. I just find it hard to go past him. He's won 6 out of the last 8 and the only two defeats were over the hurdles. He's been carrying so much weight in those hurdles - 70+Kg and winning, the lightest he's been ever has been 57Kg and they were his first two starts. In his last 8 starts the lightest he's been is a 61Kg, that also includes a hurdle race that he carried 75kg to victory! Surely with 53.5 he just won't know himself. That's the best reasoning I can come up with to back anything. Americain, Dunaden & Red Cadeaux might be 4 lengths better than all of them so who knows!

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

That's pretty troubling but the fact Red Cadeaux basically won last year gives me SOME hope it can be done. I just find it hard to go past him. He's won 6 out of the last 8 and the only two defeats were over the hurdles. He's been carrying so much weight in those hurdles - 70+Kg and winning, the lightest he's been ever has been 57Kg and they were his first two starts. In his last 8 starts the lightest he's been is a 61Kg, that also includes a hurdle race that he carried 75kg to victory! Surely with 53.5 he just won't know himself. That's the best reasoning I can come up with to back anything. Americain, Dunaden & Red Cadeaux might be 4 lengths better than all of them so who knows!

If Dunaden beat RC by a bee's dick last year and is worse off at the weights, you've gotta have RC in. I'm starting to think I'll take my tri's without Dunaden or Americain. Sounds stupid I know, but banking on 2 horses carrying 58kgs+ to not win or run a drum isn't the worst idea. If I'm right, it'll be a handsome dividend.

I'm trying to eliminate horses but gee whiz it's hard work. So far I've put a pen through Winchester, Voila Ici, Jakkalberry, Niwot, Precedence, Unusual Suspect, Sanagas, Cavalryman, Glencadam Gold (prefer Kelinni on that formline at the weights)

 

[DangerSloane]

According to reports Red Cadeaux's preperation has been better than last year. If this is the case, getting another couple of kilos off of Dunaden makes a bit of a difference. Plus hes now had his run in Australia and at the course so should hold no fears.
Red Cadeaux, Dunaden, Galileos Choice in my trifecta.

 

[KardiniaPark]

If Dunaden beat RC by a bee's dick last year and is worse off at the weights, you've gotta have RC in. I'm starting to think I'll take my tri's without Dunaden or Americain. Sounds stupid I know, but banking on 2 horses carrying 58kgs+ to not win or run a drum isn't the worst idea. If I'm right, it'll be a handsome dividend.

I'm trying to eliminate horses but gee whiz it's hard work.

I don't buy into that whole Red Cadeaux HAS to beat Dunaden, weights and measures are all well and good but we know how Dunaden has come back and once again RC is just guesswork.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

I don't buy into that whole Red Cadeaux HAS to beat Dunaden, weights and measures are all well and good but we know how Dunaden has come back and once again RC is just guesswork.

Well just on the weight Dunaden has to come back better because this Cup field is superior to last year or he can't win. RC has been working towards tomorrow from this time last year, so would have to be a chance and M Rodd is riding very nicely at the moment. Not looking forward to hearing from the once a year punters on Wednesday that the picked the winner because they liked the colours. Brain surgery is easier than the form for this race. Not to mention went to 4 newsagents and they didn't have the Cup Day edition of Best Bets

 

[somethingrandom]

I'm pretty sure the talk was that he had been aimed at the Caulfield and not the Melbourne. I still think he can win though.

I had picked him as the winner in the week leading up to the caulfield Cup, but managed to talk myself out of it by Saturday. I thought that was one of the reasons. Should probably stop drinking before breakfast.

 

[somethingrandom]

0/61 I believe, but Red Cadeaux nearly altered that last year.

I'll be playing around LOH. Only mare in the race who has taken the same lead in as previous mares to win in Etheral and the Diva. Just need it to get cover early.

I think Jezabeel came through the caulfield cup as well. That was the first melbourne cup I had a bet on, got the quinella and still lost money.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Well just on the weight Dunaden has to come back better because this Cup field is superior to last year or he can't win. RC has been working towards tomorrow from this time last year, so would have to be a chance and M Rodd is riding very nicely at the moment. Not looking forward to hearing from the once a year punters on Wednesday that the picked the winner because they liked the colours. Brain surgery is easier than the form for this race. Not to mention went to 4 newsagents and they didn't have the Cup Day edition of Best Bets

There is 24 of them in that basket.

I can send you a PDF of best bets if that helps.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

There is 24 of them in that basket.

I can send you a PDF of best bets if that helps.

No there's not. Difference between having a start and still having to qualify, eg Kelinni, GG, etc. 5th Newsagent has delivered the Best Bets.

 

[KardiniaPark]

OK well about 20 then

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

OK well about 20 then

Silent Surround?

 

[KardiniaPark]

So you are the punting mesiah because of one race? I must have missed that memo.

 

[mayhem]

As said earlier in the week i have continued to back Galilieo's choice pretty happy with his weight compared to the other Europeans.
My quest for peace was a great run in the CC, probably have a look at again at his form.

 

[Ari]

This really is the best quality MC field in years isn't it? Usually I can bolt about 5-6 horses in to my trifecta and come home well ahead, this year it's any of about 10.... and more.

For the straight out win I am thinking Brigantin or Gatewood. Hmmmm. That didn't work out did it? Okay, scrub those tickets!

Win
Tac De Boistron.
I just think that with the weights and the preparation this horse will be ready to go. A bit of rain today and tomorrow and the ground softens up. TDB was at 35/1 yesterday and in all honesty should probably be 25/1 today but is intead 51/1. Best odds in the field for mine.

Close up
Jakkalberry.
If you run over the form you will see that its performance has been pretty solid. Not first class like Dunaden or Americain but solid. At 61/1 will probably will be last years Red Cadeaux for mine. Get around it for a place at least and make sure you have it in your trifecta.

Place
Senagas & Red Cadeaux.
Not convinced either of these horses will win this year, but again.... keep them in your trifecta.

Top 10
Americain and Dunaden?
Personally I just think that with a soft track and the extra weight they will look good at the end but be beaten in the run home over the last 200. Inside the top 10 for sure.... but the weight will worry. Dunaden carried weight in the Caulfield Cup, fine, this is a greater distance and a much stronger field.

PS: Amateur alert. Don't follow my tips! Just a placeholder if one of my donkeys does the dance tomorrow at about 3.10pm.

 

[Ari]

TDB.

Watch from about 2 minutes. I know it's only a Group 2 race but the way this horse actually comes out and back again a couple times then still has sprint to get home is quite a sight.

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/p_Prix_Maurice_De_Nieuil.aspx

 

[KardiniaPark]

I hope you are right. I have it covered for about $1000 a month or so back in case it was a Bog but it just looks like its got none. That Geelong Cup was horrendous and i'm well aware of the excuses but it needed to show SOMETHING. Also it sounds like the threat of rain is gone which I think was his last hope. I just can't get past that Geelong race...and trust me there is nothing i want more than to see a grey streak down the outside and win!

 

[Ari]

I hope you are right. I have it covered for about $1000 a month or so back in case it was a Bog but it just looks like its got none. That Geelong Cup was horrendous and i'm well aware of the excuses but it needed to show SOMETHING. Also it sounds like the threat of rain is gone which I think was his last hope. I just can't get past that Geelong race...and trust me there is nothing i want more than to see a grey streak down the outside and win!

I agree re Geelong Cup. But I keep telling myself that Geelong was just too short and too many other horses needed the win too much (ie Brigantin and Gatewood to get in to the Cup).

2400 is not 2800 or 3200. You run the Geelong Cup another 400 or 600 and TDB starts to come in to it in my opinion. One thing against TDB is size, but if the track is still a little damp (I am praying) then being a little smaller could be a big advantage.

I just think it's overs and has a very good weight. Poor barrier perhaps, but that just means you run mid-field and hope there's some gas to go around the turn.