2012 Player X v Player Y

[Jolldo87]

With 2012 AFL Dreamteam opening up in just over 5 days, there has been much talk of the matchup consisting of Richmond young gun Dustin Martin & Carlton rough head Mitch Robinson.

Originally I went for Mitch Robinson only with the thought that Carlton would obviously go further in 2012 than Richmond. How silly of me to think that

After seeing a tweet from WarnieDT/DTTalk earlier this afternoon I thought I would actually investigate this matchup alot further.

This is where useless facts now come into play. Both Robinson & Martin are both generally midfielders, whilst Martin can be put up forward to kick a quick 1 or 2 goals to spark the Tigers.

In 2012 AFL Dreamteam, they are both have DPP status. They both can either be picked up Forward or in the Midfield. Perfect

Mitch Robinson is valued at $456,200 with a 2011 Dreamteam average of 92.24 - Dustin Martin is $442,500 with 2011 average of 89.45 per game. Surely on those figures Martin is the go if you want to save $13,700 to use elsewhere.

But wait, there's more. I checked out the the DT scores for both players when Blues played Tigers in 2011, and below are the dreamteam scores for both matches.

Round 1

Robinson 118
Martin 59

Round 15

Robinson 124
Martin 64

Those numbers above are very conclusive in my mind. But I wasn't finished there. I then checked both players averages for the first 6 games of 2011.

Robinson 503 points 6 games = 83.83 average
Martin 624 points 6 games = 104.00 average

Sure, a fair difference there of 20.17 dt pts per game.

So the question is ...

... Who will you be picking in 2012, Robinson or Martin ? Both (1 in Forwards / 1 in Midfield) ?

Discuss.

 

[Jolldo87]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Both look solid options really

That said, they both have pretty high SDs which you'd expect in young players, both had 6 games under 72 last year. Natural improvement sees that flatten out more this year

Martin

Pros -

-Cotchin and potentially Deledio to be tagged in front of him
-Can push fwd and be effective if he gets attention
-Rarely gets specific shut down roles
-Strong PBs this pre-season
- DPP
- Rd 13 bye away from multiple RD 12 fwd premiums


Cons -

- More players moving into the midfield for the Tigers (Lids, Newman, Conca)
-Plenty of mids and limited fwds could see him rotated there regularly
-Umps identified his high stiff arm tactics late last year and started giving frees against
- Still only a 3rd yr player coming from a high base of 90




Robinson

Pros -

- Finds his own ball
- Exceptional work rate
- Can go high with the right role
- One extra PS to Martin
- Will see very little attention with Judd, Murp and Gibbs in front of him
- Avge distorted down slightly from sub game
- Plays in DT friendly team
- DPP
- Rd 13 bye away from multiple RD 12 fwd premiums


Cons -

- Given specific jobs to shut down players on occasions
- High base (92) despite sub game, limited upside
- Tough midfield to get large minutes in

It's close. For me prob just Martin as I'm worried Robbo gets jobs again this year which might allow him to be a trade in option. Most fwd premiums have the Rd12 bye but with 3 of the most attractive having Rd 13 a decision might have to be made.

Mitch Robinson is a touch mad. His kamikaze attack on the player/ball is likely to get him in trouble with the tribunal at some stage.

Martin for mine.

Sorry, stuffed up the merging.

 

[Keystone agony]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Martin by the length of the bass straight

 

[54Dogs]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Martin by the length of the bass straight

Good solid reasons. Clearly outlined and backed up with solid evidence.

Hard to argue with any of it TBH.

Does Bass Straight have a length or a width?

 

[Keystone agony]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Good solid reasons. Clearly outlined and backed up with solid evidence.

Hard to argue with any of it TBH.

Does Bass Straight have a length or a width?

You already outlined my thoughts and the reasons above. No need to say much more.

Both players need to be considered.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: Player X v Player Y

You already outlined my thoughts and the reasons above. No need to say much more.

Both players need to be considered.

Why do you see Dusty so far in front?

I would give him the nod as well but not by that much

 

[OneEyedPie7]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Martin by the length of the bass straight

Wouldn't be able to give me the lotto numbers by any chance Nostradamus?

 

[Keystone agony]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Why do you see Dusty so far in front?

I would give him the nod as well but not by that much

When i said length of the bass straight i was joking, but yeah i still have Martin ahead. He just seems the lock in pick 1 forward premium.

Why?
- Cheaper (better value)
- Richmond are building a solid midfield add (Conca, Lids and possibly Newman to it) it becomes stronger in a physical sense and will aid him with a tag similar to how Geelong supported Ablett with attention. Even though he is second tagged behind Cotchin on most occasions
- Has already had games when tagged, played some well and some not so well (but experience is valuable he can only learn)
- Going into only his 3rd year and i can see that he is on the incline/improve still

Its pretty hard to say why one will avg more than the other, you could argue the above reasons exactly the same for Robinson. I just know Martin is going to be picked in every team and he has massive talent/potential and has improved his fitness majorly from reports so hes an automatic 1st picked premium for me. I also have a fair reason as to why Robinson may not do aswell next year, but im not sure it will eventuate and it could cause me not too pick him.

FWIW i dont really like this thread, it was always gonna to become a thread but the longer it wasnt the better. It causes everyone to pick the same players, the same premiums. I wont be adding to much to it and certainly not stuff that i think will help those that jump on here a week before round 1 to pick a team. Ill probably add in some stupid comments like i have already done

 

[nameless]

Re: Player X v Player Y

N. Reiwoldt v R. Gray

St Nick
+ Proven performer
+ Reasonably priced
+ New coach, new lease of life
+ Kosi looking good could take focus off him

- Getting on a bit
- Injuries are a concern
- Saints not as strong a team as in the past
- Most likely to still be double/triple teamed

Gray
+ Got his body right last year and this preseason, could see the best of him
+ Prime age (24 this year) BREAKOUT
+ Picking up more midfield time
+ Port might do better this year (not likely, but last year was very bad)

- Still a bit of an unknown DTwise, only had half a season of consistent scoring
- Plays for a poor team, will get attention if he racks it up
- Has had a lot of injuries in his career

what are people's thoughts?

 

[Schulzenfest]

Re: Player X v Player Y

To add to your Gray list:

+ Averaged much higher when played in the midfield (about 90 IIRC) than in the forwardline, so is underpriced and wouldn't have to improve on last year to average 90 if Primus plays him in the midfield.

- The additions of Ebert and McCarthy combined with a dodgy forward line might take away from his midfield time somewhat. I'd leave him in the midfield, but Primus may not see it the same way.

I'd have to go with Roo from that comparison, who I think is very likely to push back to at least 90+ if not to his absolute best, but if Robbie's playing in the midfield in the NAB cup then he's certainly an option if you're not sold on some of the more popular forward premium options.

 

[Igloo]

Re: Player X v Player Y

I have a 3 way questions.

LeCras vs Zaharakis vs Robinson.

All around that same price, all going to spend time in the midfield as well as forward this year.

 

[Chicharito]

Re: Player X v Player Y

I have a 3 way questions.

LeCras vs Zaharakis vs Robinson.

All around that same price, all going to spend time in the midfield as well as forward this year.

Tough one, probably won't be much between them.

I'd probably go Zaha, Robbo then Lecras. Not sure Lecras will spend as much time in the middle as the other two, which may see him score less than them - but that's likely to be offset by the fact he should impact the scoreboard significantly more than the others.

My question relates to the ruckmen. For team structure I'm keen to get my number 1 ruckman from a team that has a bye in round 11. There are a few options:

Cox vs Goldstein vs Leuenberger vs Jacobs

 

[vWestCoast]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Lecca is looking to move into the midfield a lot more this year. Has been building up his tank and training with the mids a fair bit. Also gotten physically bigger, thinking he will average 100 or so. If he isn't doing well in the midfield than he'll just go forward and kick 2-3 goals.

 

[Artax]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Jacobs for me. Soft draw, should score high & frees up a bit of cash somewhere else for no loss IMO

 

[Schulzenfest]

Re: Player X v Player Y

The only decision that's screwing with my head ATM is Dustin Martin vs Steele Sidebottom.

My question relates to the ruckmen. For team structure I'm keen to get my number 1 ruckman from a team that has a bye in round 11. There are a few options:

Cox vs Goldstein vs Leuenberger vs Jacobs

Just posted on this in the prototype thread.

There are question marks with all of them. Will McIntosh take Goldstein's minutes? Will Naitanui keep taking more of Cox's minutes? Will Hudson take Leuenberger's minutes? Jacobs is the only one whose gametime isn't under threat, but he also has the least scoring potential, so you have to weigh up the pros and cons of picking him ahead of one of the other three. Then again, Adelaide have one of the softest draws in AFL history this year so maybe that alone would be enough to push Jacobs ahead of the others in scoring potential.

The way I see it, McIntosh will take a lot of Goldstein's minutes and Naitanui will continue to take some more of Cox's, but I think Hudson will be just depth for the most part. Therefore, my order of preference between the 4 (taking price into account) would be Leuenberger, Jacobs, Cox, Goldstein.

 

[cfx_1]

Re: Player X v Player Y

The only decision that's screwing with my head ATM is Dustin Martin vs Steele Sidebottom.

I think Martin will have higher highs, but lower lows.. Sidebottom will be more consistent. Though i struggle to see where this 'more midfield time' for sidebottom will come from. I have gone for both because i see a good upside in them.

 

[HurleyTheFuture]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Sam Fisher vs Dyson Heppell?

 

[Keystone agony]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Sam Fisher vs Dyson Heppell?

Do you have BJ and Deledio in your side?

You wouldnt pick Fisher with them aswell unless your starting 5-6 premiums in the backs

 

[BigVic]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Thoughts on the following:
Birchall v Suckling
Beams v SJ
Martin v Sidebottom
Sandi v Luey

 

[HurleyTheFuture]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Do you have BJ and Deledio in your side?

You wouldnt pick Fisher with them aswell unless your starting 5-6 premiums in the backs

My backline is finalised(for now )

Deledio, Birchall, Heppell, Morris, Ellis, Clarke and Grimes

 

[nameless]

Re: Player X v Player Y

To add to your Gray list:

+ Averaged much higher when played in the midfield (about 90 IIRC) than in the forwardline, so is underpriced and wouldn't have to improve on last year to average 90 if Primus plays him in the midfield.

- The additions of Ebert and McCarthy combined with a dodgy forward line might take away from his midfield time somewhat. I'd leave him in the midfield, but Primus may not see it the same way.

I'd have to go with Roo from that comparison, who I think is very likely to push back to at least 90+ if not to his absolute best, but if Robbie's playing in the midfield in the NAB cup then he's certainly an option if you're not sold on some of the more popular forward premium options.

Thanks mate - i saw his average increase, assumed it was mid time, will keep an eye on him.

 

[nameless]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Thoughts on the following:
Birchall v Suckling
Beams v SJ
Martin v Sidebottom
Sandi v Luey

Suckling has the sublime skills and will constantly be the go to man.
Birchall offers similar run from defence, both will be good.

I'd say SJ by a long way - more midfield time, Geelong are still a strong team so he won't be 'exposed', capable of 160 scores.
Beams won't be a bad pick by any means, but i think he shares his points with others who will get more midfield time, i could be wrong, but i feel Beams gets a few injuries every now and then? Monitor his NAB to see how Bucks plays him, but i'd go SJ for proven results year in year out.

Sidebottom i always thought played a bit of tagging role in some games, so i'm wary of that. Martin is all out attack and if he rests, it's up fwd! POINTS! If Foley, Deledio or Cotchin go down before the season, i'd be scared of Martin getting more attention which he might not deal with well every week.

I'd go Martin.

Monitor Sandi and his big toe, if all looks good - get on him, he'll be AA ruck.
Luey has shown what he can do last year and he's gone back to back full seasons no injuries.

I'd go Luey, but monitor the fitness of Sandi.

 

[Hawk Vision]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Isaac Smith vs Shane Savage

Both I'm tipping to have break out year at roughly the same price. Both are tearing it up on the track. Can't split them.

 

[senrulzisback]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Isaac Smith vs Shane Savage

Both I'm tipping to have break out year at roughly the same price. Both are tearing it up on the track. Can't split them.

Isaac Smith is a little ahead for mine, I believe his job security is just a little bit better, as Savage may be used as the sub more often. Also Savage may be played forward a bit as he was last year, which is why he is capable of some huge scores (163, 144) but also very low ones too (26, 30). Will have to monitor both of them closely during the NAB cup to see how they travel.

 

[dewey13]

Re: Player X v Player Y

Sam Fisher vs Dyson Heppell?

Heppell....

Rocky v Murphy

which 2 of Enright v Shaw v birch v suckling