2012 Predictions Pt.II

[Alexwce]

You all said Hurley would also become one of the power forwards in the game last year, what happened? Hurley belongs in defence.

Crameri is a player who will go backwards. He will recieve more attention from defenders and not near have as much an output as he did last year after he slipped under the radar.

Jake Carlisle is 20 years old, if you read my last couple of lines in my previous post you may notice the "you're still a couple of years off", you aren't seriously putting money on that a 20 year old will make your attack formidable are you? Carlisle showed good signs but nothing to show that he will run havoc up front let alone kick 40+ goals and even threaten key opposition defenders.

Not enough improvement in your list.

e: @Melksham: Perhaps I for whatever reason was under the impression that he is quick. If he is not, my bad. At the back end of 2009 - Tom Swift and Tim Houlihan were scoring best afield and looked to be two of the real goers to bring West Coast back up the ladder. One is now a second-choice reserve midfielder the other has been delisted and has moved states in hopes of improving his game to get redrafted at another AFL club.

You cannot base his improvement on one outstanding game alone. Again as previously stated, Essendon will come good but not for a couple of years.

 

[HurleyTheFuture]

I dont see how crameri will go backwards, he's still young and at times when Hurley has been injured has taken the best or second best defender.
People seem to forget Hurley is yet to playa full year in the forward line and is still only 21, he still managed to average over a goal a game, on top of all of that he was played injured.

 

[Alexwce]

I dont see how crameri will go backwards, he's still young and at times when Hurley has been injured has taken the best or second best defender.
People seem to forget Hurley is yet to playa full year in the forward line and is still only 21, he still managed to average over a goal a game, on top of all of that he was played injured.

Maybe backwards was a little over-the-top. Crameri will halt though, regardless of age he isn't as good a player as Essendon fan's are making him out to be. Wouldn't be surprised if he may be nudged out of a more competitive Essendon side in the years to come.

You have a sweeping mancrush on Hurley, I understand.

I also predict Luke Breust will be All Australian after kicking 5 goals against Gold Coast in round 24 last year.

That is how valid your current argument is

 

[HurleyTheFuture]

Everything In my previous post was fact

 

[AG]

Hurley belongs in the forward line imo. Has that presence/game changing ability (potentially) to be a great. I'd got with what HTF said and have Carlisle/Crameri complementing him.

As with every team, who knows who will improve/decline? Who would have expected Crameri to have the season he had. Hardingham? Jetta? Hocking? They all improved a fair bit imo but in reality we have very little idea how they will kick on this year.

Extremely risky saying you will improve as a team because every player will improve. Extremely risky.

 

[HurleyTheFuture]

Fair enough, Obviously not everybody will improve but I expect a lot too.

 

[Dustin Credible]

So the eagles aren't playing this year?

oops

original post corrected

 

[fishardansin]

I had essendon at 6 or 7. Reason being that they took bigger scalps than the other teams in the logjam and had stupid losses, like those in the middle of the year. North though might finish above them, not because they are better than essendon, but because north have such an easy draw. Are they actually playing GWS and GC twice? Could lose to essendon twice and finish above them.

The real unknown for me are sydney and st kilda. St kilda because well they were in a grand final in 2010, but I am expecting a massive drop. Sydney because i really do not know where they fit. Will they finish top 4, will they make up the numbers or will they finish outside the 8 (which they never do)?

Give Melbourne and Richmond one more year and i reckon they will explode.

Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton and West Coast all a premiership chance.

Essendon, Sydney Fremantle, North and St kilda. I am expecting these 5 to fight it out for the remaining 3 spots in the 8.

Melbourne, Richmond, Adelaide, Brisbane and Bulldogs all not quite there yet

and GC, GWS and Port all wooden spoon chances.

A lot of sense in that post. I would drop West Coast to the group fighting out for last 4 spots in the 8. I also think that GWS will have the spoon sown up this year.

 

[fishardansin]

Maybe backwards was a little over-the-top. Crameri will halt though, regardless of age he isn't as good a player as Essendon fan's are making him out to be. Wouldn't be surprised if he may be nudged out of a more competitive Essendon side in the years to come.

You have a sweeping mancrush on Hurley, I understand.

I also predict Luke Breust will be All Australian after kicking 5 goals against Gold Coast in round 24 last year.

That is how valid your current argument is

Crameri had plenty of attention last year. Collingwood O'Brien playing a very close checking role on him. With Hurley and either Ryder, Carlisle or Gumby up forward he will never get the best defender. So they wont be checking him any closer.

The man crush on Hurley makes a lot more sense than one on NicNat. Hurley has at least proven his can play football and isn't on an AFL based purely on his athletic ability.

I feel that Nic Nat will become a very good impact player but not the super star as he's clearly not a natural footballer and I'm guessing will never understand the game well enough to really tear it up, though given a few chances one out up forward he will become increasingly difficult to stop.

Hurley showed last year that the hand injury early in the year stopped him from marking properly, even Carlton's 5th string KPD beat him in round 4, also the foot injury late in the year affected his fitness and he couldn't impact the game up the field enough. Yes he can play down back and has taken some good scalps there but his talents will be best utilised for Essendon up forward, especially when you consider the plethora of KPD options we have and with the Gumby injury sage the dearth of KPF options we have now.

Also sorry to pick on you but I've already started and you're a West Coast supporter. The over rating of West Coast on these boards is phenomenal. It should be clear to everyone that they had a fantastic year out of some of their premiership stars Cox, Kerr, Glass and Embley. They have drafted really well over the last few years and these kids really came on almost better than expected. They wouldn't have if they were a little more exposed without the experienced players around them being so fit and in such good form.

That can't be relied on going forward. I feel there will be a natural fall away, from 2011, for West Coast over the next few years then they will come with Kennedy, Le Cras, NicNat, Shuey, Darling and Gaff. That there is a pretty good core group. But West Coast last year reminded me very much of Essendon 93 and Hawthorn 08 with Watson, Salmon, Thompson and O'Donnell as experienced heads at Essendon and Crawford, Croad and a few others at Hawthorn. It wasn't all about the babies. When the old heads left there was still much work to do with the young guns. Essendon eventually climbed the mountain again with those baby bombers and Hawthorn is getting back there again now. Unfortunately for West Coast it couldn't jag a premiership with that combo because there was such a log jam up the top. Also West Coast can't expect to have nearly a full list to choose from each week again.

 

[Alexwce]

Crameri had plenty of attention last year. Collingwood O'Brien playing a very close checking role on him. With Hurley and either Ryder, Carlisle or Gumby up forward he will never get the best defender. So they wont be checking him any closer.

The man crush on Hurley makes a lot more sense than one on NicNat. Hurley has at least proven his can play football and isn't on an AFL based purely on his athletic ability.

I feel that Nic Nat will become a very good impact player but not the super star as he's clearly not a natural footballer and I'm guessing will never understand the game well enough to really tear it up, though given a few chances one out up forward he will become increasingly difficult to stop.

Hurley showed last year that the hand injury early in the year stopped him from marking properly, even Carlton's 5th string KPD beat him in round 4, also the foot injury late in the year affected his fitness and he couldn't impact the game up the field enough. Yes he can play down back and has taken some good scalps there but his talents will be best utilised for Essendon up forward, especially when you consider the plethora of KPD options we have and with the Gumby injury sage the dearth of KPF options we have now.

Also sorry to pick on you but I've already started and you're a West Coast supporter. The over rating of West Coast on these boards is phenomenal. It should be clear to everyone that they had a fantastic year out of some of their premiership stars Cox, Kerr, Glass and Embley. They have drafted really well over the last few years and these kids really came on almost better than expected. They wouldn't have if they were a little more exposed without the experienced players around them being so fit and in such good form.

That can't be relied on going forward. I feel there will be a natural fall away, from 2011, for West Coast over the next few years then they will come with Kennedy, Le Cras, NicNat, Shuey, Darling and Gaff. That there is a pretty good core group. But West Coast last year reminded me very much of Essendon 93 and Hawthorn 08 with Watson, Salmon, Thompson and O'Donnell as experienced heads at Essendon and Crawford, Croad and a few others at Hawthorn. It wasn't all about the babies. When the old heads left there was still much work to do with the young guns. Essendon eventually climbed the mountain again with those baby bombers and Hawthorn is getting back there again now. Unfortunately for West Coast it couldn't jag a premiership with that combo because there was such a log jam up the top. Also West Coast can't expect to have nearly a full list to choose from each week again.

What has your West Coast predictions got anything to do with my comments on Crameri and Hurley?

Perhapo my playing Hurley as a defender comments where in vein. But don't put all your eggs into a basket that a 22 year old is going to be a power-forward as soon as this year. For all you know playing him as a forward may hinder your ability to kick a winning score because he has looked far more proactive when playing as a key defender.

I never said Crameri was going to drag attention from the best defender. I just that more attention will be diverted to him. This means match committees, will take him seriously and see how they can combat him etc.

Either way Daniel Kerr is only 28, I don't rate Andrew Embley and wouldn't have him near our 22 and you don't need to look further than Nic Naitanui's finals performances to see that he will be the player people are making him out to be. I don't think it will be as soon as this year but we don't need him too, Cox was the best ruckman competition-wide last year and barring injury should continue to play this role.

As for Darren Glass he is a first class key defender (one of the best this decade) and while yes I realise his absence will be recognised in years to come the club has already witnessed the emergence of a new key defender to play his role when Glass does part way. Furthermore Mackenzie was already taking the most potent forward each week and most of the time won, Glass never played on the best forward.

Either way; nowhere did I state that Hurley, Carisle and players alike would not become excellent players. Essendon will be dealt a harsh reality check this year. Essendon simply lack the depth and experience to be considered any sort of threat.

 

[chinggis77]

Fremantle - Barlow. Mundy. Morabito. Sandilands. Those 4, with the exception of Morabito, are all proven quality players (Morabito hasn't much of a chance). Those 4, all also had injury riddled 2011s. If they don't make a serious jump up, with Lyon installing a defensive side to players such as Hill and Mayne while also being smart enough to have a game plan that suits Patersons, then there is something wrong imo. They have the players. They have a coach that took a team with 'duds' (some on Bigfooty are incapable of seeing a role player for what they are, good players who top teams need) such as Dawson, Clarke, Dempster, McQualter, Eddy and Kosi to a replayed grand final. They have a good home ground advantage. They have an above average fixture in terms of onfield success. They have FYFE. Top 8 is a must. Top 6 is an expectation. Top 4 depends on injuries.

Great overall post.

On Freo, I think you're right about Lyon. I think most people underestimate just how much better Lyon organises teams, gets them playing to structures/focusing on defence and getting the best out of all his players etc. It was always something Harvs struggled with.

If the poster on the freo board who said he knew one of our Vic kids is right, that player said that "Harvs was the best coach I had, until Lyon came along, now it looks like Harvs didn't know what he was doing".

 

[Ambrosia]

Melksham - highly overrated, has speed nothing much more

Hurley - Whilst he has an obvious abundance of talent it's a bold prediction to say he will improve this year. Everyone said it about him last year, he did improve however no way did he reach expectations.


Pears - One of the players that may go backwards.

Melksham is a little inconsistent but has high hurt factor with his disposal. If he can take the step and average 20 possessions this year he will go a long way to improving our side.

Hurley-Suffered several injuries and had to lighten his training load plus he had to swing between forward and back to cover for other injuries. Give me one reason barring injury that its a bold prediction for him to improve?

Pears- Was injured a lot this year and had no preseason yet he will go backwards? It's like someone predicting that Cotchin would go backwards from his 2010 season in 2011

 

[tacopavlich]

1. Hawks
2. Pies
3. Sydney
4. Freo
5. Carlton
6. Essendon
7. St Kilda
8. Geelong
9. Adelaide
10. West Coast
11. North
12. Lions
13. Richmond
14. Dogs
15. Melbourne
16. Gold Coast
17. Port
18. GWS

1st tier: Hawks Pies (Two teams that should dominate next year, though a bit of a question mark on Collingwood and what effect Buckley will have)

2nd tier: Sydney Carlton Freo (I realy like Sydney's list, expect them to
take the next step and be a real contender next year)

3rd tier: Essendon Saints Geelong (Saints will have enough talent to carry them here, though don't expect to have any real impact)

4th tier: 9 - 13 (this group is pretty close, also won't be surprised to see any1 of them sneak 8th position)

 

[00Stinger]

Hmm, everybody seems to think that Richmond only has 3-4 players and the rest are absolute rubbish. That's really not the story. Whilst our depth is not as strong as most other teams, we have many players who do do their job.

Top Tier: Every team has their cream, this is ours, arguably stronger than other teams, but as the past has shown, top end talent has dragged the weight of lesser skilled players on their shoulders.

Cotchin
Martin
Deledio
Riewoldt
Newman

Very Good: These players are not necessarily elite, but they are all respected for their talent and would make most sides best 22.

Rance
Vickery
Houli
Nahas
Foley

Average-Good: All young developing teams around the 7-12 mark have these types of players, not every team can be like Geelong.

Tuck
Jackson
Edwards
Maric
Grigg
King
Post

Whilst the rest are your developing young players/untried who have shown that they can play footy.

Conca
Batchelor
Griffiths
Astbury
Dea
Ellis
Grimes
Helbig

I can understand how one can simply judge teams on performance instead of potential. However, Richmond is improving at a steadily rate. We were touted as potential finals performers last year. Remember that in our B&F, in our top 10, 6 were under 24 years of age. Natural development will increase us on the ladder alone.

Geez, now you put it like that Richmond should be top 4

 

[muttweed]

I don't think Geelong will slide at all, no bias. In fact I reckon we'll get even better.

I also don't think the Pies will slide dramatically like a lot of people are saying. Maybe a spot or two, but they will still be major contenders.

I can imagine a lot of teams improving, even some making a huge journey up the ladder, but whether they perform up to their potential is the question. If they do, I think it will be a very competitive year.

My ladder:
Hawthorn (+2)
Geelong (same spot, missed out on minor premiership by %)
Collingwood (-2)
Carlton (+1)
West Coast (-1)
Brisbane (+9)
Sydney (same spot)
Fremantle (+3)

Essendon (-1, miss out on finals by %)
Adelaide (+4)
Western Bulldogs (-1)
St Kilda (-6)
Richmond (-1)
North Melbourne (-5)
Port Adelaide (+1)
Melbourne (-3)
GC (same spot)
GWS (inaugural year)

Grand finallists: Hawthorn v Geelong
Premiers: Geelong
Coleman: Travis Cloke
Brownlow: Sam Mitchell

 

[muttweed]

1. Hawks
2. Pies
3. Sydney
4. Freo
5. Carlton
6. Essendon
7. St Kilda
8. Geelong
9. Adelaide
10. West Coast
11. North
12. Lions
13. Richmond
14. Dogs
15. Melbourne
16. Gold Coast
17. Port
18. GWS

1st tier: Hawks Pies (Two teams that should dominate next year, though a bit of a question mark on Collingwood and what effect Buckley will have)

2nd tier: Sydney Carlton Freo (I realy like Sydney's list, expect them to
take the next step and be a real contender next year)

3rd tier: Essendon Saints Geelong (Saints will have enough talent to carry them here, though don't expect to have any real impact)

4th tier: 9 - 13 (this group is pretty close, also won't be surprised to see any1 of them sneak 8th position)

That is one interesting list.

 

[obscura]

There will be a changing of the guard next year. A revised, if unlikely, ladder.

1. Hawthorn (Added depth, many players in 24-28 area)
2. Geelong (Quality all over the ground, Power CHF in Hawkins)
3. North (Midfield will become a powerhouse; surprise everyone)
4. Sydney (Have a good spread of experience/talent)
5. Essendon (Challenged top teams last year, natural progression)
6. Brisbane (JB back to his best, promising young midfield)
7. Melbourne (Added harder edge, under-rated midfield/ruck division)
8. Collingwood (A team reliant on workrate and effort drops down a notch)


9. West Coast (Senior players under-performing, too reliant on too few)
10. Fremantle (Transitional phase under Lyon)
11. Carlton (Major injury to Judd, Ratten tactically inept)
12. Dogs (Still have top-end quality but 15-22 range is poor)
13. St Kilda (As above)
14. Richmond (Too many weak links and holes to fill)
15. Adelaide (Backline decimated; lack leadership)
16. GC (Steady improvement)
17. Port (Bereft of talent and expertise)
18. GWS (Record losses abound)

 

[HurleyTheFuture]

I think Brisbane is a bit overrated on BF, sure you can have the WC 2010-2011 argument but thats a once in a decade thing and I doubt Brisbane will do that, I rate their list and think they will become a great side but still have a very young list and lack depth. 10-13th is where I expect them to finish

 

[The Prosecutor]

I think Brisbane is a bit overrated on BF, sure you can have the WC 2010-2011 argument but thats a once in a decade thing and I doubt Brisbane will do that, I rate their list and think they will become a great side but still have a very young list and lack depth. 10-13th is where I expect them to finish

I think Brisbane is Bigfooty's 2012 equivalent of Adelaide last pre-season, where by more and more people tip Brisbane to shoot up the ladder, that it becomes almost an accepted fact by some. Though we saw what happened to Adelaide once the season started up.

Having said that, I expect Brisbane to improve on last season, though not to the extent some are predicting.

 

[muttweed]

I think Brisbane is a bit overrated on BF, sure you can have the WC 2010-2011 argument but thats a once in a decade thing and I doubt Brisbane will do that, I rate their list and think they will become a great side but still have a very young list and lack depth. 10-13th is where I expect them to finish

They have an underrated list and underrated coaching staff.

Everyone calls Voss crazy, but they clearly haven't seen some of Brissy's performances.

They were awesome against the top sides, and woeful in some games. It all comes back to their consistency. They tend to play well for only half the game, and this often lets them down and was a huge reason why they lost so many games. If they can improve on that, as well as improve their individual performaces a bit, then I have no doubt they'll make the 8. Of the bottom 9 last year, I rate Brisbane's the highest. Consistency is key for them.

 

[TheKanga]

There will be a changing of the guard next year. A revised, if unlikely, ladder.

1. Hawthorn (Added depth, many players in 24-28 area)
2. Geelong (Quality all over the ground, Power CHF in Hawkins)
3. North (Midfield will become a powerhouse; surprise everyone)
4. Sydney (Have a good spread of experience/talent)
5. Essendon (Challenged top teams last year, natural progression)
6. Brisbane (JB back to his best, promising young midfield)
7. Melbourne (Added harder edge, under-rated midfield/ruck division)
8. Collingwood (A team reliant on workrate and effort drops down a notch)


9. West Coast (Senior players under-performing, too reliant on too few)
10. Fremantle (Transitional phase under Lyon)
11. Carlton (Major injury to Judd, Ratten tactically inept)
12. Dogs (Still have top-end quality but 15-22 range is poor)
13. St Kilda (As above)
14. Richmond (Too many weak links and holes to fill)
15. Adelaide (Backline decimated; lack leadership)
16. GC (Steady improvement)
17. Port (Bereft of talent and expertise)
18. GWS (Record losses abound)

I like this ladder alot, good work

 

[Haso]

They have an underrated list and underrated coaching staff.

Everyone calls Voss crazy, but they clearly haven't seen some of Brissy's performances.

They were awesome against the top sides, and woeful in some games. It all comes back to their consistency. They tend to play well for only half the game, and this often lets them down and was a huge reason why they lost so many games. If they can improve on that, as well as improve their individual performaces a bit, then I have no doubt they'll make the 8. Of the bottom 9 last year, I rate Brisbane's the highest. Consistency is key for them.

Geelong and Brisbane are inexorably linked in this way. The rumour was that Geeling started basing their style and game plan on golden-era Brisbane around 2004 (? I think around then) and started their march up the ladder. Brisbane now use Geelong as the benchmark. Strong contested footy.

[YOUTUBE]vX07j9SDFcc[/YOUTUBE]

In terms of ladder position, from what I have seen Brisbane is the team that varies the most out of any team according to predictions by BigFooty posters. I've seen 16th and I've seen 6th. This is why I simply cannot wait for the season proper to start. All of this speculation about all teams will be put to bed as we slowly find out across the season which teams have what it takes and which don't. As it stands, there are already so many teams with the potential to jump up the ladder, and equally some with the potential to drop dramatically. As noted earlier there will be strong competition to reach the 8 from about 13 or 14 different teams. It's going to be a thrilling season and I can't wait.

 

[Drexl 31]

1. West Coast
2. Carlton
3. Collingwood
4. St Kilda
5. Geelong
6. Fremantle
7. Dogs
8. Sydney

Premiers: West Coast
Runners up: Carlton
Brownlow: Marc Murphy

 

[WWSD]

1. West Coast
2. Carlton
3. Collingwood
4. St Kilda
5. Geelong
6. Fremantle
7. Dogs
8. Sydney

Premiers: West Coast
Runners up: Carlton
Brownlow: Marc Murphy

Care to explain is to why the Bulldogs are in the 8, and the hawks are not? Hawthorn list is country miles ahead of the Swans Dogs WC Fremantle Carlton and St Kilda. Good luck with your top 8 though.

 

[WWSD]

Ladder Positions

1. Collingwood
2. Hawthorn
3. Carlton
4. Geelong
5. Fremantle
6. WCE
7. Sydney
8. NM

9. Essendon
10. Richmond
11. Adelaide
12. BL
13. Melbourne
14. St Kilda
15. Western Bulldogs
16. PA
17. GC
18. GWS

Premiers: Collingwood
Runners Up: Hawthorn/Geelong
Brownlow: Matthew Priddis/Chris Judd
Coleman: Lance Franklin by a mile!
Rising Star: Brandon Ellis