2014 rising star

[MC Extra Dollop]

You didn't mention any other teams, there was just some system which flattered teams with late first rounders.



I just went with the last 10 years, since they are the most relevant to Wells' form. I also didn't include the last two years because there's no way to tell.

Last 10 years = Tenace drops out.

So, we've got a trade for Ottens, Varcoe, Selwood, Taylor, Brown, Menzel, Smedts/Guthrie, a trade for Caddy, Thurlow and now Lang.

 

[Beanstalk]

Garlett does look like he can hit the ground running.

Or end up in prison...

I'd say it's an even money bet between the two.

 

[LiquidCrow]

Jack Martin and Aish are the ones that I expect will be getting an early nomination as they'll be most likely to get into the starting teams. Mitch Grigg could be an outside chance.

 

[Golumless]

Expecting M.Grigg to pole very highly in this. Showed a lot in the backend of last season and could really come out firing.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

Martin or Aish would be my choice right now.

I do feel that Bontempelli could poll well.

 

[Hank93]

Biased, but Mitch Grigg is a great chance.

Showed awesome form late in the year, and will have a year or two on most of his nearest rivals for the title.

 

[Richo83]

Or end up in prison...

I'd say it's an even money bet between the two.

You're not half wrong.

Grigg is a big chance. And I'd say the best way of knowing whether the Jones pick was good is to see him play.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Murray Newman and Dom Sheed are WCE chances, outside chances at that.
Newman if everything goes right is capable of playing every game.
With Karpany maybe a chance at getting a nom but not winning it.

 

[nickrebellious]

Dom Sheed/Luke McDonald.

 

[lmach]

Is Jack Martin expected to play enough games to win it? He's definitely the most talented debutant out but I remember watching in some Suns TV interview where Bluey said he'd be managed carefully and was expected to play "a few" games. Don't quote me on this.

 

[Zgope1]

just thought i'd pop in to mention a young player on my list alongside someone who's actually a worthy favourite. Turns out i'm not alone in that

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Martin will get a nomination, that's for damn sure.

Has all the skill and potential of O'Meara but not as well developed physically. Still, they are saying it might not matter too much as he is an absolute gun and used to playing on bigger guys.

My smokey is Scharenburg. The guy is huge and already looks like he is going on 30- should dominate.

 

[Sunny_]

Is Jack Martin expected to play enough games to win it? He's definitely the most talented debutant out but I remember watching in some Suns TV interview where Bluey said he'd be managed carefully and was expected to play "a few" games. Don't quote me on this.

That was for the 2013 NEAFL season. I think he was slated to play about 8-10 games but no more, which he did. Rest of the time was spent hitting the gym.

It looks like Jack Martin has grown to about ~190cm too, so any weight he's put on is difficult to really tell. It's hard to see him having a similar impact to Jaeger.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Last 10 years = Tenace drops out.

So, we've got a trade for Ottens, Varcoe, Selwood, Taylor, Brown, Menzel, Smedts/Guthrie, a trade for Caddy, Thurlow and now Lang.

Trades have nothing to do with anything here.

Also Thurlow and Lang are too soon to call so were left out.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Trades have nothing to do with anything here.

Well, then wouldn't it make sense to go back to the last 10 first round picks (prior to Thurlow) Wells has used, rather than 10 years?

Smedts, Guthrie, Menzel, Brown, Taylor, Selwood, Varcoe, Tenace, Mackie, Kelly.

I'll put those 10 up against any other team in the league.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Well, then wouldn't it make sense to go back to the last 10 first round picks (prior to Thurlow) Wells has used, rather than 10 years?

I went with recent form and used a round number. 10 years is plenty.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I went with recent form and used a round number. 10 years is plenty.

Yes, a round number of eight players . Seven, since you apparently forgot about Guthrie.

If anything from Thurlow onwards is too soon to call, I hate to break it to you, but 10 years from our previous most recent FRPs (Smedts/Guthrie) is 2001.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Yes, a round number of eight players.

Years. A round number of 10 years. If anything it's too long.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Years. A round number of 10 years. If anything it's too long.

So cut it down. What about five years: 2006-2010?

No wait, that would drop Tenace out and give you a grand total of one 'miss' from six picks (and even that's debatable, given Brown is still on the list). So you can't do that.

 

[Hodgepodge]

So cut it down. What about five years: 2006-2010?

No wait, that would drop Tenace out

Tenace isn't in the ten year range . . .

I'm not going to alter the range just to give you a favourable outcome. You'll just have to get over your insecurity on your own.

 

[Suma Magic]

I think it will come from a mid. Guys like Lewis Taylor, Dom Sheed, Jack Martin and Matt Crouch all a chance.

 

[Smoocher]

McDonald is a ready made player and will be a dashing defender/midfielder who should poll in the top 3.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Tenace isn't in the ten year range . . .

His record on first rounders is hit and miss considering the nature of high picks.

Since 2003 . . .

Kane Tenace, Travis Varcoe, Joel Selwood, Harry Taylor, Daniel Menzel, Mitch Brown, Billie Smedts.

Wait, what?

I'm not going to alter the range just to give you a favourable outcome. You'll just have to get over your insecurity on your own.

You can pick whatever range you like. I'm quite content that the talent Geelong has been able to extract from its first round picks (along with its 'hit' to 'miss' ratio) compares favourably against any non-expansion team for as far back as you would care to go.

 

[Dazb86]

Sheed.

 

[cammo78]

Hogan or Scharenberg for mine.