2015 Ladder predictions

[Dirty_11]

No, this is comparing whether Essendon go backwards on there 2014 form or not, yes Ryder/TBC going into 2015 would be better no doubt but 2014 was virtually Ryder one out and 2015 will be TBC and Giles so therefore I don't see that as a major setback that will see us drop to 14th where the original poster was predicting we would. TBC best season has been as good as Ryder's best season and he is also 2 years younger so I don't buy the "he wipes the floor" statement either.

For a club to retain its position on the ladder its list must improve. People believe the loss of Ryder has weakened your list therefore have you sliding down. If Ryder can be covered then its a non-issue. Time will tell i suppose.

 

[Andy_Mac]

No, this is comparing whether Essendon go backwards on there 2014 form or not, yes Ryder/TBC going into 2015 would be better no doubt but 2014 was virtually Ryder one out and 2015 will be TBC and Giles so therefore I don't see that as a major setback that will see us drop to 14th where the original poster was predicting we would. TBC best season has been as good as Ryder's best season and he is also 2 years younger so I don't buy the "he wipes the floor" statement either.

I said closer to 14th than 7th. Not 14th...

On the basis you are relying on an unfavourable variance of fading stars vs. improving youth with the balance of senior list already at or around their peak.

 

[Halftimehero]

For a club to retain its position on the ladder its list must improve. People believe the loss of Ryder has weakened your list therefore have you sliding down. If Ryder can be covered then its a non-issue. Time will tell i suppose.

I agree, but for a list or a team to improve it isn't just about who you gain and who you lose, it also has a major reliance on improvement from firstly your 50 game players and the emergence of your first and second year players. Ryder finished 7th in the B&F and it was regarded by everyone as his best season, it isn't like we are losing an out and out champion of the club.

 

[Dirty_11]

This is true, it is the same reason for our improvement. Outsiders don't see this and will always underrate side's younger players. It was only a few years back people had no idea who Cunnington, Ziebell, Atley, etc were. The Waites, Higgins and Cooneys of the world are top ups looking to give their sides an edge, the core of the list is matured together.

 

[Halftimehero]

I said closer to 14th than 7th. Not 14th...

On the basis you are relying on an unfavourable variance of fading stars vs. improving youth with the balance of senior list already at or around their peak.

I will give you a few names when to ponder when you say this "peak being 21-23" nonsense.

Jordan Lewis 28 career best season (B&F winner premiership year)
Matt Priddis 29 career best season (brownlow medal)
Gary Ablett 30 Just as good as any other season (on track for brownlow medal)
David Mundy 29 Just as good as last season which was career best (most disposals in a season)
Robbie Gray 26 career best season by an absolute mile
Travis Boak 26 best two seasons have been last two (his two all australian years)

Kind blows your outrageous statement out of the water doesn't it?

 

[Halftimehero]

This is true, it is the same reason for our improvement. Outsiders don't see this and will always underrate side's younger players. It was only a few years back people had no idea who Cunnington, Ziebell, Atley, etc were. The Waites, Higgins and Cooneys of the world are top ups looking to give their sides an edge, the core of the list is matured together.

Spot on

 

[Andy_Mac]

I will give you a few names when to ponder when you say this "peak being 21-23" nonsense.

Jordan Lewis 28 career best season (B&F winner premiership year)
Matt Priddis 29 career best season (brownlow medal)
Gary Ablett 30 Just as good as any other season (on track for brownlow medal)
David Mundy 29 Just as good as last season which was career best (most disposals in a season)
Robbie Gray 26 career best season by an absolute mile
Travis Boak 26 best two seasons have been last two (his two all australian years)

Kind blows your outrageous statement out of the water doesn't it?

Again, English comprehension not your strong point... At that age they enter their prime, not reach it.

 

[Halftimehero]

Everyone of the older players mentioned have reached there peak performence levels and are now beginning the decline, the rate of decline is the only variable.

Midfielders reach there prime by 21-23yo, depending on the individual. So as I said half are there already. Those second year players you listed are b-grade compared to other second year players at other clubs.

TBC is not as good as Ryder, that is a known fact. Apparently only obviously to those that don't follow the Bombers.

Again, English comprehension not your strong point... At that age they enter their prime, not reach it.

Well well well look what we have here, you aren't telling porkies are you?

 

[Halftimehero]

Again, English comprehension not your strong point... At that age they enter their prime, not reach it.

Not sure what my strong points are and it may not be english comprehension as you quite rightly pointed out, but I would advise if you are going to come on here and dribble a whole heap of nonsense then you should at least try and stick to what you are trying to dream up, it just makes you look even more ridiculous than you already do if you don't.

 

[Hawkas1988]

Well well well look what we have here, you aren't telling porkies are you?

Nailed him.

 

[Andy_Mac]

Well well well look what we have here, you aren't telling porkies are you?

enter thier "prime" was what I meant. Players peak from 23, you're not going to see the same rate of improvement from 18-23 as you will 23-30. Players have generally reached a level. In any given year from that point they may acheive a career best year.

My point stands. The bombers list is in worse shape now than it was 12 months ago.

 

[Halftimehero]

enter thier "prime" was what I meant. Players peak from 23, you're not going to see the same rate of improvement from 18-23 as you will 23-30. Players have generally reached a level. In any given year from that point they may acheive a career best year.

My point stands. The bombers list is in worse shape now than it was 12 months ago.

Yeah of course you did

 

[Engimal]

Ryder is a pretty big loss because he was pretty good up forward as well as being a decent ruckman. I don't see Essendon slipping out of the 8 though. They've got a pretty good list. I think Danniher needs to have a breakout year, although it might be a big ask.

 

[Andy_Mac]

Yeah of course you did

I was trying to illistrate that your not going to get massive improvement from half of a list of player names you put forward as they had reached their prime years.

Take Judd as an example at 20 he reached his peak or prime years, where over the next 8 or so he fluctuated at a general level of output.

 

[Halftimehero]

Ryder is a pretty big loss because he was pretty good up forward as well as being a decent ruckman. I don't see Essendon slipping out of the 8 though. They've got a pretty good list. I think Danniher needs to have a breakout year, although it might be a big ask.

True, but with Daniher, Carlisle and to a lesser extent Ambrose expected to improve significantly, I don't see that there would have been a reliance on Ryder going forward anyway. It maybe a suprise to people but Bellchambers is also a decent ruck/forward having kicked 28 goals in 2013 playing that role. I am not sure if it will be a "breakout" year for Daniher but if the improvement he showed from the first half of this season to the second is anything to go by then he is well on the way, he was very good against North Melbourne in the elimination final kicking 4 goals.

 

[Halftimehero]

I was trying to illistrate that your not going to get massive improvement from half of a list of player names you put forward as they had reached their prime years.

Take Judd as an example at 20 he reached his peak or prime years, where over the next 8 or so he fluctuated at a general level of output.

Give up mate

 

[Hawkas1988]

I was trying to illistrate that your not going to get massive improvement from half of a list of player names you put forward as they had reached their prime years.

Take Judd as an example at 20 he reached his peak or prime years, where over the next 8 or so he fluctuated at a general level of output.

Take Dangerfield who only took the midfield by storm when he was 23-24.

Gibbs who is only just starting to turn into an A grader.

Swan took until 2009 when he was about 25 to turn into the gun he has been since.

Watson took many years to become elite.

I could go on, point is, your assumption that players can't drastically improve past the age of 23 is ridiculous.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

1. Fremantle
2. Sydney
3. Hawthorn
4. Adelaide
5. North Melbourne
6. Port Adelaide
7. Geelong
8. West Coast

9. Collingwood
10. Gold Coast
11. Richmond
12. Carlton
13. GWS
14. Essendon
15. St Kilda
16. Brisbane
17. Bulldogs
18. Melbourne

 

[Asgardian]

I gave my reasons and provided evidence to why I believe Port won't make the 8, and why Carlton will

Evidence?????????????

I call it flawed logic or more to the point, complete B******t

The games you say Port lost midish season were because we were cooked? Actually if you bothered to check, Port were without the full back and CHB for most of those games.

Any club minus their two key tall defenders struggles, but no, you ignore that and call your guess work provided evidence.

Oh FFS ...

 

[gillo94]

Evidence?????????????

I call it flawed logic or more to the point, complete B******t

The games you say Port lost midish season were because we were cooked? Actually if you bothered to check, Port were without the full back and CHB for most of those games.

Any club minus their two key tall defenders struggles, but no, you ignore that and call your guess work provided evidence.

Oh FFS ...

Well I might add Port has depth issues in defense, just like they had with their ruck stocks, poor Lobe playing close to 100% in the ruck most weeks but least you've addressed that issue by getting Ryder however I stand by my argument and won't change my ladder predictions as still see Port facing same issues

 

[Asgardian]

Well I might add Port has depth issues in defense, just like they had with their ruck stocks, poor Lobe playing close to 100% in the ruck most weeks but least you've addressed that issue by getting Ryder however I stand by my argument and won't change my ladder predictions as still see Port facing same issues

I suggest your evidence re our defence is as flimsy as anything else you purport as provided evidence.

 

[WWSD]

I suggest your evidence re our defence is as flimsy as anything else you purport as provided evidence.

Mason Shaw and Tom Clurey have played one game between them. Surely that's of some concern heading into 2015? Not saying those two players won't come good, but should they be thrown into the deep end I just don't think they'll be ready yet.

 

[teknodeejay]

I know a lot of people are predicting Collingwood to fall next year,
but surely we will still put a team on the park.

Sometimes I like to pretend Collingwood don't exist.

 

[Kimbo]

Lots of precious posters here this year, in this opinion thread.

 

[rustyg70]

Sometimes I like to pretend Collingwood don't exist.

I'm sure you would.
Especially after picking up half your coaching panel and Woods and Thomas a few years back.