2015 Ladder predictions

[Jade]

Why not both.

Ha ha - fair call.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

we were embarrassed in a grand final the prelim was good

Depends on your point of view.

 

[Jade]

we were embarrassed in a grand final the prelim was good

Shit - typo, my bad; you knew what I meant =D

 

[Tiger71]

All right, have resisted the urge to do one so far this year, so here goes:

1. Sydney - Much as I absolutely despise the unfair advantages Sydney have been given as a club, the result is they can put a phenomenal side on the park. Will be incredibly tough to beat after being embarrassed in the prelim last year.

2. Hawthorn - Generally I don't really like putting last years grand finalists in position 1 and 2; but I just can't see where the Hawks fall away. They won the flag against adversity, showing themselves to be a damn strong club. Should be thereabouts again.

3. Port Adelaide - Was considering putting them anywhere from 1st to 8th on this list. So hard to get a read on them. I am not as impressed as others with the run and gun gameplan they have - which is likely to make them inconsistent. If they are relying on Ryder to be the difference, they will be disappointed.

4. Fremantle - Yes, they were straight sets and out, but Ross Lyon knows how to grind out win after win. I don't give them a snow balls chance in hell of winning the flag though.

5. Essendon - obviously ASADA depending, but Essendon without that cloud is a pretty decent side. Daniher and Carlisle will be a 40-50 goal better combination next year, could very well push the top four.

6. North Melbourne - A very even list with a nice spread of talent across the board. Reality was that whoever won the Elim. Final between them and Ess would always have beaten Geelong, so I don't give too much weight to finishing within the top four. The last of six sides I give a genuine chance of making the top 4 to at this stage.

7. Adelaide - Woefully underperformed, and with a new coach on board should climb the ladder once again. Will give Port a run as the best team in SA.

8. West Coast - Unsure on this one. Could see Gold Coast, Brisbane or Geelong here. Went West Coast as I doubt the depth of Brisbane, think Geelong are on the decline and Gold Coast are still not ready.

9. Gold Coast - Next year I think. A little worried about their KPP stocks, although its midfield will now put a hurt on more than a few sides. Will be interested to see if Ablett plays more forward this year.

10. Geelong - Easily the most over rated side in the game right now IMO. A serious lack of depth in its list. Totally reliant on too few, will not make the eight IMO.

11. Brisbane - A very poor side defensively who have added some serious talent to its midfield. How will they go? A great unknown to me.

12. Richmond - Has the most wafer thin list in the league. A single loss from its best 10 players is too great a bridge for them to cover. Finishing inside the eight last year will ultimately do them more harm than good.

13. Collingwood - I actually rate the list rebuild they are undertaking, but is still too soon for them to be a danger to top sides. Buckley will be under significant pressure come the end of the year (and rightfully so).

14. Western Bulldogs - First thing they need to do is smack the players over the back of the head, you do NOT run the footy club. That aside they have a juicy collection of young talent, expect to see them push for the eight in 2016.

15. Melbourne - I honestly want to place them higher, because I think Roos is great for building a 'club' (though I doubt his ability as a coach). But they've fallen apart so many times before....

16. GWS - This list is scary. Better than Gold Coast IMO. This will be the last year for a while that they are sitting this low on the ladder.

17. St Kilda - Credit for openly pursuing a strategy of rebuilding. Its gonna take time and they are gonna cop some beatings. How bad would they be without Nick.....

18. Carlton - Absolute rubbish list with a past it coach who is hanging on for ego sake. Spoon and trading out of what few players of value it has at the end of the year.

A lot of hope and ifs or buts in your prediction mate. The bombers have one of the worse performing forward lines in the league, what got you in the finals this year was the improvement of your overall defense. To bank finishing 5th with the Daniher and Carlisle improving there output by 50 goals is IMO a pipe dream.

 

[Groupie_]

Jackson Trengove has just had shoulder surgery and will be out for 12 weeks. Not a good start for a team that collapsed when Trengove and Carlisle went down.

Will be very interesting to see how they go without him and any other injuries (touch wood) they might pickup.

They were very very ordinary as you say when he and Carlisle went down..

 

[cryptor]

So you've got Hawthorn winning 20 games next year and only losing 2. I think your bias is showing.

Who beats us then?

I had us losing to Port at AO and to North at ES.
Yes I do think Hawks will beat Sydney at ANZ and I would have had us losing to Fremantle if we played them in WA but we don't. Geelong have lost a bit of experience and speed and I don't rate their 2 new talls that highly.

Sure there will probably be an unexpected loss or two in there along the way probably later in the season but I don't see it. Especially since I rate our depth a lot higher than other teams which will keep us strong late in the season when we can rotate players and cover injuries that most teams can't.

 

[Jade]

So you've got Hawthorn winning 20 games next year and only losing 2. I think your bias is showing.

I'd actually give them a reasonable chance to be 18 wins or higher - bloody hard side to beat.

 

[StevenwellerHFC]

ASADA or just don't rate the list?

ASADA, 7th - 9th otherwise.

 

[HBFlanker]

1. Sydney
2. Hawthorn
3. North Melbourne
4. Port Adelaide
5. Gold Coast
6. Essendon
7. Geelong
8. Richmond
9. Fremantle
10. Adelaide
11. West Coast
12. Brisbane
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Collingwood
15. Melbourne
16. Carlton
17. St.Kilda
18. GWS

Personally think Fremantle will slide. Some real top end class but not much depth.
Collingwood will only be out of the bottom 4 on percentage.
GWS will have a horrible year culminating in more departures at seasons end.
This will be classified as Geelongs poor year which will see them bounce back in 2016 on the back of signing Dangerfield
Gold coast will win their first final

 

[Rod Stroker]

Who beats us then?

I had us losing to Port at AO and to North at ES.
Yes I do think Hawks will beat Sydney at ANZ and I would have had us losing to Fremantle if we played them in WA but we don't. Geelong have lost a bit of experience and speed and I don't rate their 2 new talls that highly.

Sure there will probably be an unexpected loss or two in there along the way probably later in the season but I don't see it. Especially since I rate our depth a lot higher than other teams which will keep us strong late in the season when we can rotate players and cover injuries that most teams can't.

I must admit I haven't gone through the entire fixture in detail and done a ladder prediction, however I think to only have you losing twice for the year is very optimistic in what is for the most part a very even comp.

 

[cryptor]

I must admit I haven't gone through the entire fixture in detail and done a ladder prediction, however I think to only have you losing twice for the year is very optimistic in what is for the most part a very even comp.

Fair enough regarding the evenness of the comp but that was last year. Teams are different and fixtures play a big part in team fortunes. Let me know what you think after you've had a look at our fixture though. Remember Hawthorn only lost to 2 teams in 2013 (close to Geelong twice and upset by Richmond late).

 

[Rod Stroker]

Fair enough regarding the evenness of the comp but that was last year.

Why would it be any less even this year? I see it being more even as many of last years bottom sides in Melbourne, GWS, Brisbane, St. Kilda all improve.

Teams are different and fixtures play a big part in team fortunes. Let me know what you think after you've had a look at our fixture though. Remember Hawthorn only lost to 2 teams in 2013 (close to Geelong twice and upset by Richmond late).

You came close to losing to us too, only beat us by 3 points. The return game at the end of that year was also another close win.

 

[Jade]

ASADA, 7th - 9th otherwise.

Fair enough - considering we haven't finished above seventh in some time it'd be hard to criticise that.

 

[roosmad]

Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Sydney
West Coast
Gold Coast
Adelaide
Richmond

Fremantle
Brisbane
Collingwood
Geelong
Bulldogs
GWS
St. Kilda
Melbourne
Essendon
Carlton

HQ would be in meltdown if your 17/18 predctions come true.

 

[Halftimehero]

A lot of hope and ifs or buts in your prediction mate. The bombers have one of the worse performing forward lines in the league, what got you in the finals this year was the improvement of your overall defense. To bank finishing 5th with the Daniher and Carlisle improving there output by 50 goals is IMO a pipe dream.

The improvements Daniher and Carlisle both made in the second half of the year would suggest they are more than capable of kicking an extra 30- 40 goals between them this year. Carlisle kicked 21 goals in his last 7 games and Daniher kicked 20 of his 28 goals from round 11 onwards, they quite clearly benefited from spending time playing together in the forward half and still have a lot of natural progression to be made.

 

[roosmad]

west coast, will surge injury free
port adelaide, same as last year
geelong, last hurrah finally?
hawks, slow start will come home strong
swans, watch and see
richmond, typical tigers, out first week of finals
north, up and down
freo, lyon out on his ear into 2016

crows, miss on percentage
suns, honestly do not rate them without ablett
lions, will show signs
dogs, again will show signs but kids take time
pies, i look at the list and have a chuckle
bombers, i have more of a chuckle at their list
blues, time up for mick....
demons, when your as bad a club as this it takes a long time to get anywhere
saints, has there ever been a deeper rebuild?

 

[Tiger71]

The improvements Daniher and Carlisle both made in the second half of the year would suggest they are more than capable of kicking an extra 30- 40 goals between them this year. Carlisle kicked 21 goals in his last 7 games and Daniher kicked 20 of his 28 goals from round 11 onwards, they quite clearly benefited from spending time playing together in the forward half and still have a lot of natural progression to be made.

You are basically suggesting both will double there output next year to achieve that goal. I just don't see that happening. Carlisle has knee issues so may only play 15 games this year IMO if he is managed through and Daniher though talented is still a kid so will be inconsistent. If they play together all year then i can see that improvement say in 2016 but not now.

 

[Halftimehero]

You are basically suggesting both will double there output next year to achieve that goal. I just don't see that happening. Carlisle has knee issues so may only play 15 games this year IMO if he is managed through and Daniher though talented is still a kid so will be inconsistent. If they play together all year then i can see that improvement say in 2016 but not now.

No, I would say that the mark will be closer to a 30 goal improvement from the pair of them which if it was 15 each would be roughly a 50% improvement.

 

[Richo83]

Just for the record, in 2014, Carlisle and Daniher kicked a combined 55 goals between them. A boost of 40-50 would see them kick 95-105. This is being predicted even though only 10 players managed to kick 50 goals or more this season. It's an ambitious claim.

 

[Jade]

Just for the record, in 2014, Carlisle and Daniher kicked a combined 55 goals between them. A boost of 40-50 would see them kick 95-105. This is being predicted even though only 10 players managed to kick 50 goals or more this season. It's an ambitious claim.

What do you think?

 

[Tiger71]

No, I would say that the mark will be closer to a 30 goal improvement from the pair of them which if it was 15 each would be roughly a 50% improvement.

you said 30 to 40. Again even a 50% lift from both will be highly unlikely.

 

[roosmad]

Just for the record, in 2014, Carlisle and Daniher kicked a combined 55 goals between them. A boost of 40-50 would see them kick 95-105. This is being predicted even though only 10 players managed to kick 50 goals or more this season. It's an ambitious claim.

the ball needs to get to them, see your midfield as average at best.

 

[Tiger71]

What do you think?

I'll answer and this, if your team makes finals and play a full 4 quarters in all games..I would say the pair if on song could kick up to 70 goals.

 

[Halftimehero]

you said 30 to 40. Again even a 50% lift from both will be highly unlikely.

Yes I said 30-40 and more likely 30, I believe they are both capable of kicking around the 40-45 goal mark, the evidence is there from the second half of this season and I see both players progressing even further next season.

 

[Richo83]

What do you think?

Young players like Daniher rarely just double their output like that. They have hiccups and clubs spend more time focusing on them. I like Daniher but expecting him to kick around 50 goals this season is a bold claim. As is the claim about Carlisle, you take away those two games where he kicked 8 and 4 goals against a broken Maxwell and Roughead (who I don't rate much) and he kicked 2 goals or less. I think with more time in the forwardline and more experience, you can expect him to kick around 40 goals this year, ditto Daniher, which results in around a 25 goal increase, not your 40-50 goal increase.