List Mgmt. 2015 Trade, Draft, Rookie Draft and FA Megathread

[ike2112]

So for you to say our list is not very good is not really accurate. I think you mean to say the problem is our list is not very experienced. Then yeah absolutely. Spot on. Agree with you. Give it another year or three whilst these 18-22 year olds move into the 21-25 year olds. Add one or two free agents and then we will start to see something.

I refuse to accept ‘potential’ as ‘performance’. Based on current performance, our list is not very good. It is however packed with potential.

We have a huge list of kids who are very talented and who will make the grade. I'm not going to name them as all regular posters including yourself know them inside out. We also have some kids whom have shown glimpses and may or may not make it. Again we all know who they are too. Remember Joey and BJ took time before they clicked.

You don't know who will make the grade or not. None of us do. It is highly unlikely that everyone we expect to make it, will do, certainly not reach their absolute potential. Law of averages suggests at least one will fail.

There’s no point in the “best 22 under 22” lists that list every kid we have on the list and puts them in position, because about half of them aren’t going to be any good. Maybe a quarter will get released, a quarter will be C-graders and scrape to 50 games. The other half will be AFL players, and its near impossible to say if they’ll be AA-level or not.
Looking at the top 30 picks from 2007 and 2008 drafts, it seems as a rough estimate that a bit over half of players picked in that range will be of a level 7 years later that another AFL club would desire to have them on their list. So that’s roughly something a bit higher than a 40% attrition rate. And that was from the top 30 picks, not overall or including rookie draft picks or delisted talent. We will be lucky (and our staff deserve huge credit) if all of our recent high picks become AA-level stars, let alone the chances of Lonie, Minchington or Murdoch becoming decent enough to start games on merit.

The other conversation on this thread is about rucks, in particular Stanley and Longer. AFL talent assessors have basically admitted that they find it near impossible to project how a ruck will develop; all you can base on is athletic ability, indicators such as body frame, what technique they have, learning capacity etc. But they all but admit they are taking educated guesses with rucks. I reckon the chances of random fans on this forum having any better of an idea with rucks is slim.
So whilst we can all hope Longer and Hickey become AFL legends (and I really like them both), its blind optimism to just pencil them in as top-level AFL players for the next 8 years.

 

[aussierulesrules]

You don't know who will make the grade or not. None of us do. It is highly unlikely that everyone we expect to make it, will do, certainly not reach their absolute potential. Law of averages suggests at least one will fail.

Agree, but on the flip-side, I fully expect that there will also be some who will really surprise and end up having a far better career than their draft number or early AFL output suggested they ought to. Like Joey did. Like Jack Steven looks like doing. Like Sam Fisher did. Like Milney did. Like Gwilt has, etc.

The other thing is that it doesn't always work out the way the averages suggest it will. For every us of say the 2008-2010 era, there is a Geelong of the 1999-2001 era, where they just nail pick after pick and have a handful from each of a couple of drafts who go on to all have outstanding careers. For all we know, in 10 years time we may look back on these drafts and say "they were the drafts we really nailed and which put us on the path to great things." Or they may just be average with only half succeeding, or whatever.

I have a strong feeling they will be better than average though, as I really rate Trout and co. from what we've seen of those they've drafted so far.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

I refuse to accept ‘potential’ as ‘performance’. Based on current performance, our list is not very good. It is however packed with potential.

SMAK:so in essence you are agreeing with me as all I took exception to is your statement saying we are not very good as it is not as black and white as that which I think you know hence adding the word potential

You don't know who will make the grade or not. None of us do. It is highly unlikely that everyone we expect to make it, will do, certainly not reach their absolute potential. Law of averages suggests at least one will fail.

SMAK: as what aussierulesrules said, like Geelong who nailed pick after pick, I think we nailed most of these picks. I agree that at least one or two fails. My money is on Murdoch and Saunders personally but I want to be proven wrong here. However the large proportion of players we have picked up under Trout has been fantastic. Yes the word potential again but some of us, (and I think you are included here - has watched enough footy to know when kids are going to make it or not (yes yes there will always be exceptions). We are never going to be able to have a team of A or B players, we will have to have role players, GOP or C grade players. Just have to hope that they can play their role and not be the weakest link too much.

There’s no point in the “best 22 under 22” lists that list every kid we have on the list and puts them in position, because about half of them aren’t going to be any good. Maybe a quarter will get released, a quarter will be C-graders and scrape to 50 games. The other half will be AFL players, and its near impossible to say if they’ll be AA-level or not.

SMAK: I think you're being a tad pessimistic saying half of them. We've started to accrue a number of 1st round picks which statistically tells us are more likely to make it than not. I also think we're starting to see signs that say they will make it. Will they be AA? Yes it is near impossible but again from watching games people can form a view (from past experience). So agree, not many of recent draftees will be AA elite - def 1-2, maybe 3 or 4 and if we're lucky 5-7.

Looking at the top 30 picks from 2007 and 2008 drafts, it seems as a rough estimate that a bit over half of players picked in that range will be of a level 7 years later that another AFL club would desire to have them on their list. So that’s roughly something a bit higher than a 40% attrition rate. And that was from the top 30 picks, not overall or including rookie draft picks or delisted talent. We will be lucky (and our staff deserve huge credit) if all of our recent high picks become AA-level stars, let alone the chances of Lonie, Minchington or Murdoch becoming decent enough to start games on merit.

SMAK: The thing is here that drafting players has improved exponentially from even 7 years ago. It's a whole different ball game now (pardon the pun). Also it is difficult to compare one draft class against another. This years was deep without having an awesome top end. Next year looks like it has an awesome top end but not sure how deep it is. Yes agreed, luck plays some role, i.e. not getting injured like menzel or Morabito for example

The other conversation on this thread is about rucks, in particular Stanley and Longer. AFL talent assessors have basically admitted that they find it near impossible to project how a ruck will develop; all you can base on is athletic ability, indicators such as body frame, what technique they have, learning capacity etc. But they all but admit they are taking educated guesses with rucks. I reckon the chances of random fans on this forum having any better of an idea with rucks is slim.

So whilst we can all hope Longer and Hickey become AFL legends (and I really like them both), its blind optimism to just pencil them in as top-level AFL players for the next 8 years.

SMAK: Fair enough with the 1st paragraph. Agree re Hickey and Longer. We are back to this word potential

 

[ike2112]

I think that, realistically, one probably two of Lee, White, Wright, Acres, Billings, McCartin, Goddard and McKenzie will not reach the level we'd hope for. Those are our higher picks (or equivalent).

Then I think a couple players picked much later or picked up as delisted or whatever Delaney was (a giveaway) will achieve better than what you'd generally expect from a pick in the 35+ range or rookie draft.

So of the ones we hope are A-grade, we'll maybe get 50% of them do that, 30% are just average/gop, and 20% don't really make it.
Of those projected to be low B or high C grade, we will probably get a few who become good or better than that, maybe a couple high B-grade and even a star comes from that group.

But there is no way that everyone we've recruited in the last 3 seasons becomes a serviceable AFL player. Just isn't going to happen. Some wrote on here as if they're not only all going to be AFL level, but stars as well.

There's about 6 players on the list now, even youngsters like Murdoch, who need to show something of substance soon, or they are gone.

I wonder if, when we get a Saints Vfl side, contracts will be transferable. I doubt the AFL allows it, but that would be interesting if they did.

 

[STK2020]

Do your percentages include that clubs draft for role players in teams now more than ever ?
Give me 22 dedicated role players any day above a team with say ..... 5-6 A graders .

 

[ike2112]

Do your percentages include that clubs draft for role players in teams now more than ever ?
Give me 22 dedicated role players any day above a team with say ..... 5-6 A graders .

Good luck winning a flag with 22 role players.

You don't trade out players for 1st round picks, use pick 1 and 3 in the space of 12 months, and expect to get role players. Dunstan is the only one I think we went for a ready-to-go live body who could quickly play whilst under mentorship from Lenny. Dunstan lasted to the late teens, as he was believed to have a low ceiling, despite being obviously talented. So I don't think he'll ever be AA, however I think he'll be a solid player for many years to come.
The others, we picked them high and want them to come good. Its highly unlikely they all will; the fact there are few examples of clubs nailing draft periods across 2-3 years, when all 16 clubs over the last 10-15 years have had plenty attempts, shows how unlikely it is that everyone we took in the first 30 picks will be good.

 

[STK2020]

First round selections can role players too ,
MCCartin was picked to fill a role in 2-3 years time , we couldve easily gone Petracca .
McKenzie, Lonie both picked to play roles could've easily again gone midfielders with their selections. Role players eventually evolve into A graders ......Luke Parker springs to mind .
I like the direction and thought going into our selections .

 

[SK_MD_#7]

Player contracts for 2015 at other clubs. (Couldn't find those with the question marks.)

Adelaide - Richard Douglas, Scott Thompson, Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane, Brent Reilly, Cameron Ellis-Yolman, Luke Brown, Matthew Wright, Mitchell Grigg, Rory Laird, Sam Kerridge, Andy Otten, James Podsiadly, Kyle Hartigan, Matt Crouch

Brisbane - Ryan Harwood, James Aish, Jed Adcock, Brent Staker, Claye Beams, Matthew Leuenberger, Jonathan Freeman, Mitch Golby, Rohan Bewick

Carlton - Chris Judd, Matthew Kreuzer, Matthew Watson, Robert Warnock, Cameron Giles, Nick Holman, Lachie Henderson, Dennis Armfield, Andrejs Everitt, Simon White, Andrew Carrazzo, David Ellard, Blaine Johnson, Ciaran Sheehan

Collingwood - Sam Dwyer, Brent Macaffer, Jamie Elliot, Tom Langdon, Matthew Scharenberg, Clinton Young, Nathan Freeman, Lachlan Keeffe, Josh Thomas, Tony Armstrong, Ben Sinclair, Jackson Ramsay, Patrick Karnezis, Paul Seedsman, Adam Oxley, Corey Gault

Essendon - Mark Baguley, Tom Bellchambers, Alex Browne, Jake Carlisle, Travis Colyer, Paul Chapman, Lachlan Dalgleish, Courtenay Dempsey, Orazio Fantasia, Dustin Fletcher, James Gwilt, Will Hams, Dyson Heppell, Elliot Kavangah, Jake Melksham, Jackson Merrett, Zach Merrett, Tayte Pears, Brent Stanton, Jason Winderlich, Kurt Aylett, Jake Long, Conor McKenna, Shaun McKernan, Ariel Steinberg

Fremantle - ?

Geelong - Billie Smedts, Jimmy Bartel, Andrew Mackie, Jake Kolojashnij, James Kelly, Daniel Menzel, Darcy Lang, Sam Blease, Hamish McIntosh, Josh Cowan, Steve Johnson, Jared Rivers, Tom Hawkins, Jed Bews, Matthew Stokes, Nathan Vardy, Steven Motlop, George Horlin-Smith, Jared Jansen, Tom Read, Jackson Thurlow, James Toohey, Corey Enright, Cameron Delaney, Mark Blicavs

Gold Coast Suns - Zac Smith, Tim Sumner, Luke Russell, Gary Ablett, Andrew Boston, Daniel Gorringe, Rory Thompson, Trent McKenzie, Heny Schade, Charlie Dixon, Matthew Shaw, Clay Cameron, Aaron Hall, Michael Rischitelli, Jesse Lonergan, Josh Hall, Seb Tape, Andrew Raines, Keegan Brooksby, Josh Glenn, Greg Broughton, Tyrone Downie, Louis Herbert, Adam Saad, Jarred Ellis

GWS - Stephen Coniglio, Toby Greene, Dylan Shiel, Rhys Palmer, Devon Smith, Tom Bugg, Tim Golds, Nathan Wilson, Adam Treloar, Jeremy Cameron, Matthew Buntine, Zach Williams, Jacob Townsend, Will Hoskin-Elliot, Dylan Addison, Sam Schulz

Hawthorn - Matthew Suckling, Sam Mitchell, Josh Gibson, Luke Hodge, Brian Lake, David Hale, Tim O'Brien, Ryan Schoenmakers, Liam Shiels, Paul Puopolo, Will Langford, Sam Grimley, Jed Anderson, Billy Hartung, James Sicily

Melbourne - Daniel Cross, Jack Fitzpatrick, Colin Garland, Max Gawn, Max King, James Harmes, Jeremy Howe, Jayden Hunt, Mark Jamar, Nathan Jones, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Jordie McKenzie, Cam Pedersen, Christian Salem, Jimmy Toumpas, Jack Trengove

North Melbourne - Drew Petrie, Andrew Swallow, Scott McMahon, Sam Wright, Shaun Atley, Jamie MacMillan, Kieran Harper, Robbie Tarrant, Aaron Mullett, Brad McKenzie, Majak Daw, Daniel Currie, Luke McDonald, Trent Dumont, Brent Harvey, Michael Firrito, Nathan Grima, Ben Jacobs

Port Adelaide - ?

Richmond - Chris Newman, Dylan Grimes, Dustin Martin, Shaun Grigg, Matt Dea, Ricky Petterd, Chris Knights, Alex Rance, Kamdyn McIntosh, Matthew McDonough?, Nathan Gordon, Nathan Foley, Sam Lloyd, Todd Elton?, Matt Arnot

Sydney - Alirr Alirr, Jordan Foote, Adam Goodes, Heath Grundy, George Hewitt, Brandon Jack, Kieran Jack, Lewis Jetta, Alex Johnson, Zak Jones, Jake Lloyd, Harrison Marsh, Lewis Melican, Sean McLaren, Sam Naithsmith, Toby Nankervis, Nic Newman, Lloyd Perris, Dane Rampe, Ted Richards, Daniel Robinson, Rhyce Shaw

Western Bulldogs - Daniel Pearce, Joel Hamling, Jack Redpath, Easton Wood, Jarrad Grant, Robert Murphy, Mitch Wallis, Matthew Boyd, Fletcher Roberts, Jordan Roughead, Michael Talia, Dale Morris, Luke Dahlhaus, Liam Picken, Ayce Cordy, Josh Prudden, Sam Darley, Matthew Fuller, Mitch Honeychurch

West Coast Eagles - ?

 

[Periphery]

Player contracts for 2015 at other clubs. (Couldn't find those with the question marks.)

It'll be super interesting to see what this list looks like late in the season next year. Especially with GWS and GC. This thread and many of its posters may die a slow and painful death if all the GWS kids sign up during the year.

 

[Defacto]

surely cogs goes back home and plays for freo?

 

[karaoke]

surely cogs goes back home and plays for freo?

Coniglio?

 

[Defacto]

Coniglio?

Yeap

 

[Persevering Saint]

If we can overcome the taint of filth, maybe this kid is a chance.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...n-2015-afl-draft/story-fngeflq8-1227147022152

 

[Barrels]

If we can overcome the taint of filth, maybe this kid is a chance.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...n-2015-afl-draft/story-fngeflq8-1227147022152

Give me Schache over him any day of the week...

 

[TN25]

If you guys are interested in doing a draft, click this link for more information.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/player-sponsor-draft-interest-thread.1084030/

 

[Barrels]

Bugger.

Yes, they all say that, but he's pretty unequivocal there...

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2014-12-18/treloar-after-giant-return

"I want to be here until we win a premiership," Treloar told AFL.com.au at the Giants' pre-season training camp in Noosa.

"It's just all talk. You know the media, they like to make a story, but it's just all talk."

 

[aussierulesrules]

Boooooooooo

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Until.

Giants win next year. Treloar gets traded to us

 

[Ekomaira]

"Until we win a premiership"
Coming to the Saints to win his 2nd then


Damn you A2R

 

[Persevering Saint]

Until.

Giants win next year. Treloar gets traded to us

 

[Studbuddy]

George Steven from the Geelong Falcons is Jack's younger brother isn't he? Still very early days but anyone got more information on him? One to keep an eye on I guess.

 

[SK_MD_#7]

George Steven from the Geelong Falcons is Jack's younger brother isn't he? Still very early days but anyone got more information on him? One to keep an eye on I guess.

Yep brothers. I did that research earlier this year.

Not sure what type of player he is or anything though.

 

[Persevering Saint]

George Steven from the Geelong Falcons is Jack's younger brother isn't he? Still very early days but anyone got more information on him? One to keep an eye on I guess.

So, where's he from?

 

[Studbuddy]

So, where's he from?

THE BOY FROM LORNE AND MICKY TURNER'S GEELONG FOOTY FACTORY!!!!

 

[aussierulesrules]

THE BOY FROM LORNE AND MICKY TURNER'S GEELONG FOOTY FACTORY!!!!

OH BOY WOWEE!