2015 Wooden Spoon Predictions

[Art Vandelay_]

Then you definitely weren't alive for Jeans, McHale, Barassi etc, so I'm not sure why you're using them as part of your judgment. If you're going by pure statistical comparisons like premierships he'd be behind a few coaches, sure, but his longevity and success in the modern era with West Coast and Collingwood has to put him into the conversation. In my opinion, of course.

And there wouldn't be a hint of wce bias would there? He never coached my club I'm trying to be as unbiased as I can, in fact none of the coaches I've mentioned have coached my club.

The fact is he has shown good longevity but ultimately his last 20 seasons in the afl have netted 1 premiership. 1 is still more than many other coaches of course and I have never said Malthouse is not a good coach, he wouldn't have lasted this long if he wasn't but my assessment still remains unchanged.

Also if being alive was a prerequisite to judging worth then most of us wouldn't be able to talk about and compare back to anywhere past the 1940's. The fact is though that baseball players are still compared to Babe Ruth, cricketers to Bradman etc etc. unless some of us have seen the others in action all we can base it off is statistics.

Nobody nowadays claims Bradman was the best because they saw him play, they usually just quote the many of his phenomenal stats.

 

[Forward Press]

And there wouldn't be a hint of wce bias would there? He never coached my club I'm trying to be as unbiased as I can, in fact none of the coaches I've mentioned have coached my club.

The fact is he has shown good longevity but ultimately his last 20 seasons in the afl have netted 1 premiership. 1 is still more than many other coaches of course and I have never said Malthouse is not a good coach, he wouldn't have lasted this long if he wasn't but my assessment still remains unchanged.

Also if being alive was a prerequisite to judging worth then most of us wouldn't be able to talk about and compare back to anywhere past the 1940's. The fact is though that baseball players are still compared to Babe Ruth, cricketers to Bradman etc etc. unless some of us have seen the others in action all we can base it off is statistics.

Nobody nowadays claims Bradman was the best because they saw him play, they usually just quote the many of his phenomenal stats.

You're quite possibly right I was not alive for his days at Footscray and too young for Wce.

Then why bring that up as if having seen their games somehow affects your opinion?

Malthouse hasn't coached West Coast for nearly one and a half decades, I don't think I'm biased at all when saying that his longevity and success with two clubs puts him into the conversation for one of the best coaches.

Anyway, we are derailing the thread so I'm going to let this one go.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Then why bring that up as if having seen their games somehow affects your opinion?

Malthouse hasn't coached West Coast for nearly one and a half decades, I don't think I'm biased at all when saying that his longevity and success with two clubs puts him into the conversation for one of the best coaches.

Anyway, we are derailing the thread so I'm going to let this one go.

Same we are clearly going to continue to disagree. So I'll hold my opinion and we'll just move on.

 

[Dez!]

Going with Carlton.

 

[The Joker]

sometimes you just gotta take the pain and get gametime into the kids.

This is the point & most Saints fans would want exactly that, but losing Lenny is big and no kid (or a listed player for that matter) is going to come in and take his place. Then losing regulars like Gwilt and Stanley, they both played almost every game in 2014, why? Because there was no one good enough to take their spots.

Then there is Rewioldt, S Fisher (StK fans still think he has it), Dempster & Montagna, will they produce enough?

Will their Number 1 Ruckman last the whole year? And who gives him a break now that Stanley is gone, do they play 2 ruckmen?

If Montagna plays across HB the only thing they have going for them is that their midfield is young and skilful.

 

[gillo94]

Going with Carlton.

?

 

[Dez!]

?

What?

 

[gillo94]

What?

You said going with Carlton, what was that in reference to?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

You said going with Carlton, what was that in reference to?

I'm assuming the thread title......

 

[Dez!]

You said going with Carlton, what was that in reference to?

..........................Really?

 

[gillo94]

..........................Really?

Don't worry about just if was regarding what I think it was, wanting an small explanation to why, that's all

 

[Dez!]

Don't worry about just if was regarding what I think it was, wanting an small explanation to why, that's all

- You have no depth.
- Far too reliant on Judd whose body isn't as reliable as it used to be.
- Only decent target up forward was Waite and he's no longer there.
- Outside of Menzel there's no standout youth there.
- Malthouse isn't the man for Carlton to rebuild with, the game has flown right by him.

 

[Dez!]

Well bowled pie shop

Having multiple tabs open never ends well.

 

[aussierulesrules]

This is the point & most Saints fans would want exactly that, but losing Lenny is big and no kid (or a listed player for that matter) is going to come in and take his place.

Of course no-one individually is going to replace Lenny, but he was still just one component of our midfield and you need to remember that Jack Steven (who beat Lenny fairly comfortably in our B&F the year before) played the entire 2014 season injured and that Leigh Montagna was in career best form in the 2nd half of 2013 and then into early last year, until injuries (including a leg fracture) look to have derailed his season (from about round 8). Then of course David Armitage was looking good early in the season, but then he missed a big chunk of footy when he had that freak leg gash infection, so if those 3 are fully fit this year and have a fairly injury free year then our midfield could overall be stronger than last year's one that contained Lenny Hayes.

The one who is expected to individually take Lenny's place in the midfield is Seb Ross, who obviously isn't likely to be anywhere near as good as Lenny this year, but like say his cousin Jobe (who got off to a slow start to his career, as he built his tank), or say Armitage, he looks to be improving gradually year by year (as was always expected to be the case) and ought to be a lot more ready to make an impact this year, especially since he just came top 10 in our time trial, a great sign, as his tank has always been questioned. Armitage is another who's tank has always been an issue and he just came 5th in the same trial, so he looks primed to have his best season yet and to help fill some of the hole left by Lenny. I think he's now ready to thrive with the extra responsibility.

Then you've got the fact that the likes of Dunstan, Acres, Newnes, Saunders and Billings will hopefully all have another preseason under their belts and be a lot more capable of producing in the midfield than they were last year (Dunstan less than the others, as he was good there last year, but still ought to be considerably fitter this year and isn't as stocky/bulky or heavy).

 

[davis_756]

Well proof will be in the pudding. Either Roos knows what he's doing, or Malthouse did.

Haven't done your research have you, Garlett's issues are mostly off the field. He might do well with a fresh start, he might not

 

[gillo94]

- You have no depth.
- Far too reliant on Judd whose body isn't as reliable as it used to be.
- Only decent target up forward was Waite and he's no longer there.
- Outside of Menzel there's no standout youth there.
- Malthouse isn't the man for Carlton to rebuild with, the game has flown right by him.

I'm convinced Saints are wooden spooners

Their age bracket is younger than Blues, meaning Blues have more mature age and experienced players, plus think Saints are set on doing a longer rebuild

 

[Dez!]

I'm convinced Saints are wooden spooners

Good for you.

Their age bracket is younger than Blues, meaning Blues have more mature age and experienced players, plus think Saints are set on doing a longer rebuild

So what if Carlton have older players? Doesn't mean they have better players, St Kilda still have a ways to go on their rebuild but that doesn't mean that they are locked to 18th on the ladder. They've acquired some very good young talent in recent years that's already made an impact on the field and another pre-season to the likes of Billings, Dunstan, Acres, Newnes, etc to go with players like Riewoldt, Montagna, Steven puts them ahead of the Blues for mine.

 

[gillo94]

Good for you.



So what if Carlton have older players? Doesn't mean they have better players, St Kilda still have a ways to go on their rebuild but that doesn't mean that they are locked to 18th on the ladder. They've acquired some very good young talent in recent years that's already made an impact on the field and another pre-season to the likes of Billings, Dunstan, Acres, Newnes, etc to go with players like Riewoldt, Montagna, Steven puts them ahead of the Blues for mine.

& Demons going to make big jump from 17th just because Paul Roos is coaching and all you have Petracca, Hogan & Brayshaw?

Dees should also be contenders for spoon aswell if you ask me

 

[aussierulesrules]

Then losing regulars like Gwilt and Stanley, they both played almost every game in 2014, why? Because there was no one good enough to take their spots.

That was 2014 though and Gwilt, like Clint Jones, wasn't offered another contract for this year, because we presumably believed we had others who could comfortably take his place, immediately. Dylan Roberton is the one most likely, as his 2014 was virtually a write-off, after major ankle surgery last offseason (after having come top 10 in our B&F the previous season- his 1st with us) and he has reportedly bulked up by about 6 or 7kg, while also taking a whopping 11 seconds off his time trial PB, so it sounds like he ought to be a whole lot more physically capable than he was last year and in prime shape to get back to his terrific 2013 form, if not better. Gilbert is of course another one who's 2014 was virtually a write-off and who, if fit, could and would instantly replace Gwilt with someone as good, if not better.

As for Stanley, he won't be easy to replace in his combined forward/ruck role, but up forward any of White, Lee, Bruce, Membrey, or even McCartin could give us similar to the 2 really good games Rhys played up forward last year, mixed in a whole lot of pretty average games and some other OK ones. As for the 2nd ruck role, none of them will be as good as Rhys at it obviously, but then again, Rhys spent very little time rucking last year. Hickey or Longer would ruck almost all game, hence Rhys having more than 9 hitouts in only 4 of his 19 games, with 3 of those 4 being 11, 12 and 13 hitout games.

Will their Number 1 Ruckman last the whole year? And who gives him a break now that Stanley is gone, do they play 2 ruckmen?

Longer held his own in the ruck pretty well last year and ought to be a lot better for a 4th preseason and he is there as back-up if Hickey has injury troubles again, as is Jason Holmes, who reportedly would have gotten a debut late last year had he been on the main list. Hickey has been injured for basically his whole two seasons with us, but had what was reportedly successful surgery over in Europe on a lingering patella injury a couple of months ago, so hopefully he's now over that longstanding injury and will be much better for it this year (he reckons he can do squats again for the first time in two years, for instance, which ought to really help his leg strength and leap).

Who does the 2nd rucking is a bit of a mystery though. My guess is that Josh Bruce or Tom Lee (who has a very big leap) will pinch-hit there, just to give Hickey or Longer a break. I doubt very much we'll be playing both Hickey and Longer consistently together, given we'll be wanting to get games into the likes of White, Lee, Bruce and McCartin.

 

[Forward Press]

& Demons going to make big jump from 17th just because Paul Roos is coaching and all you have Petracca, Hogan & Brayshaw?

Dees should also be contenders for spoon aswell if you ask me

He's not discussing his own side, though.

You have to deal with the fact that people might not think as highly of Carlton as you do. You don't have to jump on every single poster who thinks Carlton will have a poor year. What Dez outlined in his dot points seems reasonable to me.

 

[gillo94]

He's not discussing his own side, though.

You have to deal with the fact that people might not think as highly of Carlton as you do. You don't have to jump on every single poster who thinks Carlton will have a poor year. What Dez outlined in his dot points seems reasonable to me.

I agree, my apologies Dez
I say all time everyone has their own opinions, so should take my own advice

 

[aussierulesrules]

Then there is Rewioldt, S Fisher (StK fans still think he has it), Dempster & Montagna, will they produce enough?

That remains to be seen, just as it is with the likes of Pav, McPharlin and Sandilands, or Murphy, Morris and Boyd, for instance, but Riewoldt just made the AA team and seems to be relatively on top of his knee issues and as everyone knows, has built up a ridiculous level of fitness, so relatively speaking he doesn't look like slowing down any time soon. He has just signed a new 2 year deal, while Fisher looked in ripping physical nick at the open training session the other day and is meant to be pain-free in his toe for the first time in about 6 years- following successful surgery- and reckons he's got his leap and burst speed back, so he'll be keen to make up for lost time. His 28 possies and 8 marks (2 contested)- in just 66% game time- in our last game suggests that he hasn't forgotten how to play footy. He slotted straight back in like a glove for those last 7 games of the season. Dempster isn't that old at 30, is meant to look after himself as well as anyone and just came 3rd in our time trial, so I'm going to suggest he isn't going to drop off a cliff any time soon and I don't imagine Joey will either, as he is aiming to play for at least another 3 or 4 years and was in blitzing career-best form prior to his rare injury issues last year (which he still managed to play though- his durability is pretty incredible).

At those ages though, anything can happen, so like I said, it remains to be seen.

If Montagna plays across HB the only thing they have going for them is that their midfield is young and skilful.

Why the hell would he play across HB? We have way more backline options than we need as it is, so given our midfield is the area that is much more questionable than our backline, I'm going to suggest that our best or 2nd best midfield option is going to play midfield! Savage was doing a fantastic job giving us run and long kicking off HB when switched there in the 2nd half of the year, so if he keeps that up there ought to be no need to even think about moving anyone like Joey back there, especially as we'll also have other options for that role like Newnes, Geary, Webster, Wright, Acres, Murdoch and McKenzie.

 

[Thrawn]

- Malthouse isn't the man for Carlton to rebuild with, the game has flown right by him.

No such thing. Malthouse is smart enough to adapt/have people around him to help with that... otherwise he wouldn't be a good coach. He's won premierships in two different time periods where the game has changed significantly. And all of a sudden the game's gone past him? Right.

- Only decent target up forward was Waite and he's no longer there.

They said exactly the same thing when Fevola left. And Waite is no where near half the player as Fev was.

People seem to ignore that Carlton actually wasn't far off a finals spot last year. They had a lot of close losses, some of which were very unlucky (the two Geelong games). The only way I can see them win the spoon is if they have a heavy injury list. But as for the moment, they still have some good players and a relatively injury free pre-season.

 

[Silent Alarm]

They said exactly the same thing when Fevola left. And Waite is no where near half the player as Fev was.

Exactly! And Carlton haven't had a decent forward over 6 foot since then and have barely progressed up the ladder and into contention!

One less answer and no clear heir and your stock in tall forwards are looking as shocking as Freo's.

 

[Thrawn]

Exactly! And Carlton haven't had a decent forward over 6 foot since then and have barely progressed up the ladder and into contention!

One less answer and no clear heir and your stock in tall forwards are looking as shocking as Freo's.

My point was that citing Waite isn't really a good argument, because when Fev left we did a tiny bit better and actually found ways to kick goals. The loss of Waite is not one of the reasons why we may possibly win the spoon.