2015 Wooden Spoon Predictions

[Suma Magic]

aussierulesrules

Don't think it matters that we were top of table in round 3. We were, and are, an average team.

Agree with most other things you've said though.

 

[davis_756]

Carlton have lost another 3 senior players in Robinson, Garlett and Waite. None of those guys are world beaters, but they are solid senior players. And they will be replaced by Liam Jones and kids. This follows losing more senior players the year before. Carlton may be rebuilding, but I don't think they have hit the bottom yet.

Saints on the other hand have got games into their kids. I think they have hit bottom. So the only question is will the saints improve this year? And will they improve enough to go past Carlton who are still falling IMO?

Garlett didn't play all year in the seniors so how is he a loss? A loss from 2013 maybe not 2014.

Robbo is easily replaceable, a hard nut with poor disposal should have been overtaken by Cripps/Graham in the near future.

Waite is the loss, the goals will be hard to come by without him up there. Heavily reliant on Jones/Watson/Kruezer to stand up at FF and replace him but that will be eased somewhat if Casboult can start to produce more consistently what he showed against the Hawks and/or Henderson stepping up.

Across the field the only drop off might be from Simpson as he gets on a bit, can't get any less out of old boys Judd, Carrots & Walker who basically missed 2014. I don't see us improving but I can't see Waite causing us to fall to spoon contenders.

 

[aussierulesrules]

aussierulesrules

Don't think it matters that we were top of table in round 3. We were, and are, an average team.

Agree with most other things you've said though.

You had come off 2 very big wins to start the season though (against teams ranked around us on the ladder) and were playing at home, on a hot day, so at the time you were an in form and confident team playing in your favoured conditions. I thought it was one of our best efforts of the year without doubt and it helps paint a picture of how competitive we were until injuries started to really take their toll and how much of a difference it can make to a young list when they do.

Granted you guys did drop off as the season progressed though.

 

[Suma Magic]

You had come off 2 very big wins to start the season though (against teams ranked around us on the ladder) and were playing at home, on a hot day, so at the time you were an in form and confident team playing in your favoured conditions. I thought it was one of our best efforts of the year without doubt and it helps paint a picture of how competitive we were until injuries started to really take their toll and how much of a difference it can make to a young list when they do.

Granted you guys did drop off as the season progressed though.

Fair enough.

I just don't think that getting within 25 points of us is a huge achievement. I get your point though that we beat the demons and doggies by more in the previous two weeks.

 

[clivenator26]

Stk for me with WB & Melbourne chances good chances but I reckon Brisbane should at least be an option, I think they're on par with Ess, Carl & Coll.

 

[QuietB]

Garlett didn't play all year in the seniors so how is he a loss? A loss from 2013 maybe not 2014.

Robbo is easily replaceable, a hard nut with poor disposal should have been overtaken by Cripps/Graham in the near future.

Waite is the loss, the goals will be hard to come by without him up there. Heavily reliant on Jones/Watson/Kruezer to stand up at FF and replace him but that will be eased somewhat if Casboult can start to produce more consistently what he showed against the Hawks and/or Henderson stepping up.

Across the field the only drop off might be from Simpson as he gets on a bit, can't get any less out of old boys Judd, Carrots & Walker who basically missed 2014. I don't see us improving but I can't see Waite causing us to fall to spoon contenders.

He might not be a loss, but you are trying to improve. Losing him does not improve you - getting him back in form would. Garlett is a guy that has gone 12,39,48,29,43 and 12 goals a year for his career. In that time Waite has gone better than him once, 29 goals to Garletts 12 last year.

Add Betts and in the last 2 years the Blues have lost their top 3 leading goal scorers for just about every year since 2009. It is hard to see where the scoring is coming from.

 

[dinger]

We haven't had wooden spoons in the AFL, but we've had 3 in the SANFL pre 1900's iirc

 

[doggies ftw]

Is it true that Essendon has never won a spoon? Could be wrong but thought I read it somewhere. This year would be a great time to start.
Failing that, probably St.Kilda. Dogs are interesting in that they've got a lot of good young talent but lost a lot of players this year and have a coach who to me might not be the man.

What makes you say that (about Beveridge) everything coming from people attending training this preseason seems to be extremely impressed at how well he is running the joint, and how much smoother training is going etc, and all the players seem to love him. Can't see any reason to think he's not the right man at this stage.

I can understand everyone having us close to the spoon but I'm pretty confident we will surprise a few. We've made a big shift in focus from contested ball to outside run and ball use this preseason, a huge shift actually. Which was always the next stage in our development. Also under Macca we fielded some ridiculous teams, going in every single week at least one tall short in both the forward and the back lines, just playing to a proper structure (with less inside mids and more outside types as well) will provide some instant improvement. Tom Boyd even just being there will take so much pressure off Crammers and Stringer. A fully fit Will Minson (cant underestimate his impact, he was ****ed the entire of last season), a few players ready to explode like Stringer and Bonts.

Don't get me wrong its going to be very very hard to improve considering the experience we've lost (although half of those players leaving are probably a blessing to be completely honest, Cooney, Higgins and Jones mainly. Not exactly the types you want around a young team) but theres plenty there that will see us at least maintain last years output. Very confident in that. Round 1 will be interesting reckon we might just surprise the Weagles at home.

 

[Simba Moyo]

Stk for me with WB & Melbourne chances good chances but I reckon Brisbane should at least be an option, I think they're on par with Ess, Carl & Coll.

If there was any year that we were going to 'win' the spoon, it would've been this past season. New coach, injuries to key players and 10 debutants. With guys like Rich, Leuenberger, Redden etc coming back from injury, the inclusion of Beams & Christensen and our young kids adding another pre-season under their belt we should avoid the spoon comfortably.

 

[joop]

Melbourne. Haven't really improved their list IMO.
Hope I'm proved wrong, would like to us and them finish above Carlton.

 

[Persevering Saint]

We haven't had wooden spoons in the AFL, but we've had 3 in the SANFL pre 1900's iirc

That may be the only time the rest of the AFL community could possibly care about your team's SANFL record.

 

[dinger]

That may be the only time the rest of the AFL community could possibly care about your team's SANFL record.

Haha, although I celebrate the trophies we won in a very competitive SANFL back in the day, I don't really use them as direct pissing contests unless its regarding overall success of the club in the long run. In terms of overall success, we have 3 wooden spoons alongside the premiership cups, but in terms of AFL, we have 1 trophy alongside 0 wooden spoons. I think thats the most appropriate way for me to put it

 

[Persevering Saint]

I put this on the Saints board recently, but I think it might help here.

I think we'll do much better than last year, because of the players we lost in 2013. Going into the 2014 season, we had to cover the loss an amazing amount of our previous team.

Firstly, we lost those who retired: 1, Kosi; 2, Milne; 3, Blake.

Then we lost 4, Saad, to suspension.

Then we lost 5, Dal Santo to FA.

Then we lost 6, McEvoy to trade.

Then, due to early injury in 2014, we effectively lost: 7, Armitage; 8, Geary; 9, Steven; 10, Fisher; 11, Gilbert; 12, Roberton; 13, Lee.

That's THIRTEEN players that had been part of our best, and most settled, 22 players in 2013, that we barely ever had in 2014. That is going to, at the very least, mean a severe lack of cohesion among the players. We all loved that so many newbies got a go last year, but as IF they were going to work as a cohesive group, when so many of them had hardly played the game before, let alone played with each other! Thrown in a brand new coach, with a brand new game plan! The poor kids had the cohesion of a bunch of chooks with their heads cut off!

Add to that the loss of experience and talent that those THIRTEEN players represent! That's 60% of the starting 22 - having changed effectively in the 2014 starting lineup.

This year, many of last year's newbies now have a bit more under their belt. In terms of significant loss of personnel over the off-season, it's effectively Lenny, Stanley, and Schneider (because if he gets upgraded, then we have even more problems!). So we will be more cohesive as a team, and don't have the kind of horrendous losses to personnel that we had in 2013.


Let me put it this way:

These are the holes from our best 22 in 2013, during most, if not all of 2014:

FB: Gilbert, Fisher, Geary
HB: Roberton, Blake, ---
C: Armitage, Steven, Dal Santo
HF: Saad, Kosi, Milne
FF: Lee, ---, ---
R: McEvoy, ---, ---
IC: ---, ---, ---, ---

Tell me how a team that has just lost THAT much of each their lines is NOT going to get the spoon, no matter who they are!

We are not remotely in that situation this year.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Saints or Dogs

 

[no orange peeler]

Giants no chance will push for 8. Dogs dees saints for mine

 

[clobba]

Entirely too subtle....

nah not really just probably only amusing to other Doggies

 

[mick06]

Saints or Bulldogs
Both young teams who lost experience.
Certainly don't have the worst lists in the AFL going forward but i would expect them to be at the bottom next season

 

[Silvagnis]

He might not be a loss, but you are trying to improve. Losing him does not improve you - getting him back in form would. Garlett is a guy that has gone 12,39,48,29,43 and 12 goals a year for his career. In that time Waite has gone better than him once, 29 goals to Garletts 12 last year.

Add Betts and in the last 2 years the Blues have lost their top 3 leading goal scorers for just about every year since 2009. It is hard to see where the scoring is coming from.

What did we receive for Garlett, Robinson and Waite?



McKay stated that Lucas was the stiffest player to be delisted last year. Isn't a flog or someone who punched his own ticket like these players. The Jaksch trade forced out Mclean and Lucas.

We've lost two stay at home small forwards and a tall who was more temperamental than Fevola. Yet we still played finals without Fevola. Not concerned after we recruited Jones, Jaksch, Tutt, Boekhorst, Smith and Whiley to fill spots.

Cripps or even Graham should take Robbo's spot.

 

[davis_756]

He might not be a loss, but you are trying to improve. Losing him does not improve you - getting him back in form would. Garlett is a guy that has gone 12,39,48,29,43 and 12 goals a year for his career. In that time Waite has gone better than him once, 29 goals to Garletts 12 last year.

Add Betts and in the last 2 years the Blues have lost their top 3 leading goal scorers for just about every year since 2009. It is hard to see where the scoring is coming from.

2014 we played without Betts & Garlett, 2015 we play without Betts & Garlett. Can you tell me the difference?

You could use what you're suggesting for reasons carlton would slide in 2014 which we did by winning 3.5 less games but this year its Waite vs Jaschk/Jones/Tutt/Kruezer as the only reasoning not Garlett and Betts.

 

[TheSunGod]

Any team that has a bad run of luck can do it.

I'll throw Gold Coast in the mix, thought they stagnated a little last year and went completely to pieces once Gazza was gone. I know he is back on track, but if some complication was to occur and he went out again for an extended period plus the new coach doesn't get it right, it could be a dark season for the Suns.

Two can play that game. Add Geelong to the list. The hunger is no longer there for the old stagers, the young blokes are either spuds or injury prone, and your star recruit is more famous for pissing on cigarette machines than kicking goals.

 

[baz_machine]

What's the squiggle say?

 

[Persevering Saint]

Two can play that game. Add Geelong to the list. The hunger is no longer there for the old stagers, the young blokes are either spuds or injury prone, and your star recruit is more famous for pissing on cigarette machines than kicking goals.

Rhys Stanley urinated on a cigarette machine? No wonder we traded him.

 

[ManOfClay]

Of all the players we lost, only Griffen was playing that day in queensland when we beat GC. Signs like that show we can still put in good performances no matter what team we put out there. Comfortable we're still ahead of St Kilda and probably Melbourne at this stage. With the potential to be further up.

I'd be very suprised if we won the spoon with teams like that still in the competition.

 

[Adam H]

Of all the players we lost, only Griffen was playing that day in queensland when we beat GC. Signs like that show we can still put in good performances no matter what team we put out there. Comfortable we're still ahead of St Kilda and probably Melbourne at this stage. With the potential to be further up.

I'd be very suprised if we won the spoon with teams like that still in the competition.

Shocking back 6 and no key forward to speak of leaves the WB vulnerable. Given they've lost their best player and best young key forward.

 

[Abomination]

Carlton, Saints, Dogs or Collingwood.