2017 Ladder Predictions

[Papa G]

I really want to believe Mick is a footy expert.*

View attachment 347069

* recent example of his thoughts suggest otherwise.

From what I can deduce, predictions in the press are heavily influenced by location.

 

[threesixpio]

Yeah I pretty much gave a wins range to show that despite where I've placed a certain team it doesn't mean I'm confident they'll finish there.

So for Hawthorn, I find it particularly hard to put them out of my 8 (was between Geelong, Adelaide and the Hawks) because I still think they can get pretty close to the top 4 which is why in my wins range I have them potentially winning 14 games for the year.

There will obviously be a few teams who will win more or less than what I've given them in my wins range but I'd be happy if that happened. I'd love nothing more then to have a whole range of teams surprise this year because that makes it exciting if we had an unpredictable year.

I have no issue at all with how you have done it. It should be the standard formula. I also like that the range gets bigger for the unknown teams who could surprise - including my team.

 

[threesixpio]

Spot on analysis .....Enright is a major loss, and Bartels experience in close games cannot be underestimated .....2E is no Enright

Aging and slow backline and short on depth ......it's either this year, or they're damn close to a rebuild

OR... they have been rebuilding for a while and might gel relatively well this year. Defence is the biggest issue though.

 

[tim_saints]

Spot on analysis .....Enright is a major loss, and Bartels experience in close games cannot be underestimated .....2E is no Enright

Aging and slow backline and short on depth ......it's either this year, or they're damn close to a rebuild

Couldn't agree more.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

OR... they have been rebuilding for a while and might gel relatively well this year. Defence is the biggest issue though.

They've been trading out their picks ....Dangerfield, Henderson, Zac Smith .....only Cockatoo is a first round draft pick from the last 3 years ?

 

[Bazza97]

I have no issue at all with how you have done it. It should be the standard formula. I also like that the range gets bigger for the unknown teams who could surprise - including my team.

Yeah I agree regarding that posters should give a wins range for each team in their ladder predictions. Just so it allows us to get a feel for how well they think certain teams will go and vice versa.

 

[00Stinger]

Jeepers Collingwood at 6. Okey dokey Mick.

Would haave had them out of the 8 if Gary Ablett Snr played for them

Sent from my SM-P555 using Tapatalk

 

[drazah]

XL is a bit buggy, i put in the score for Adel v GWS, but it does not get reflected on the ladder, while other matches do
i'll probably wait for the official one online

Yeah the ladder wasn't finding clubs with their mascot in their name because the names didnt match. Should work now https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/28942631/2017 Ladder Predictor.xlsx

 

[drazah]

Champion Data has an interesting ladder prediction:

FULL SIMULATION RESULTS (via Champion Data)

1. GWS Giants - 17.1 wins - 99.2% chance of finals

2. Sydney Swans - 14.5 - 89.5%

3. Western Bulldogs - 14.4 - 89.3%

4. Adelaide Crows - 14.2 - 86%

5. Port Adelaide - 13.8 - 82.7%

6. West Coast Eagles - 13.3 - 75.6%

7. Collingwood - 12.4 - 61.5%

8. Geelong Cats - 12.4 - 61.1%

9. Hawthorn - 11.6 - 46.6%

10. Richmond - 10.4 - 25.4%

11. Fremantle - 10.3 - 25%

12. Melbourne - 10.2 - 23.1%

13. St Kilda - 9.7 - 17.1%

14. Gold Coast Suns - 8.9 - 8.9%

15. Essendon - 8.2 - 5.2%

16. North Melbourne - 7.6 - 3.1%

17. Carlton - 5.5 - 0.2%

18. Brisbane Lions - 3.6 - 0%

I think they've overrated Collingwood and underrated Essendon but I agree with a lot of it!

 

[Dez!]

Champion Data has an interesting ladder prediction:



I think they've overrated Collingwood and underrated Essendon but I agree with a lot of it!

Not going to point out they've massively overrated Port Adelaide?

 

[drazah]

Not going to point out they've massively overrated Port Adelaide?

Or everyone else is underrating Port Adelaide

The Power, in particular, are expected to jump up, ranking fifth with on 13.8 wins. They are given an 82.7 per cent chance of playing finals in 2017.

That is for a number of reasons. Port Adelaide has had the best ladder percentage of any non-finalist in consecutive seasons, suggesting they’re better than most think.

Assuming everyone stays healthy is also a boon to the Power, who have a solid best 22 but struggle with depth issues.

 

[Skipper_]

1. GWS
2. Sydney
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Adelaide
5. West Coast
6. Melbourne
7. Geelong
8. St Kilda
9. Hawthorn
10. Essendon
11. Collingwood
12. Gold Coast
13. Fremantle
14. Richmond
15. Port Adelaide
16. North Melbourne
17. Brisbane
18. Carlton

 

[Jimmy Russell]

1. Geelong
2. GWS
3. Melbourne
4. St Kilda
5. West Coast
6. Sydney
7. Hawthorn
8. Gold Coast
9. Richmond
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Adelaide
12. Port Adelaide
13. Collingwood
14. North Melbourne
15. Brisbane
16. Fremantle
17. Essendon
18. Carlton

 

[Dez!]

Or everyone else is underrating Port Adelaide

No, Port have been expected to be good the last 2 years and they've failed miserably.

Time to realise they are just an average team.

 

[Heisenberg_]

They've been trading out their picks ....Dangerfield, Henderson, Zac Smith .....only Cockatoo is a first round draft pick from the last 3 years ?

And they won't have a first rounder this year either.
They've gone all in and I can't see it working

 

[threesixpio]

Champion Data has an interesting ladder prediction:



I think they've overrated Collingwood and underrated Essendon but I agree with a lot of it!

And the bit about Port?????????????????????????

 

[magpienato]

Why is everyone putting Bulldogs in the top 8? They finished 7th last year and flunked it into the GF. And how is Collingwood getting put below teams like Essendon and Gold Coast? I mean I myself don't have that much confidence for my team this year but surely with the predicted #1 midfield in the comp this year surely that means something. At least in the top 8 Collingwood will be. Apart from my critiques, I agree with the notion that St. Kilda and Melbourne will make it into the 8. They have been building for a while and they have really solid teams now. As for teams like Richmond and Port Adelaide, I can see them climbing a few spots from where they normal finished.

 

[LeverPuller]

Champion Data has an interesting ladder prediction:

I think they've overrated Collingwood and underrated Essendon but I agree with a lot of it!

Couple of things...

1) It assumes everyone is healthy.
2) It goes off their stat-tracker of the last two years. Doesn't factor in breakout at all.
3) On the same token it doesn't factor in aging at all.

Thus it's assuming that Collingwood has a fully fit Wells, for example.
.

 

[LeverPuller]

Why is everyone putting Bulldogs in the top 8? They finished 7th last year and flunked it into the GF. And how is Collingwood getting put below teams like Essendon and Gold Coast? I mean I myself don't have that much confidence for my team this year but surely with the predicted #1 midfield in the comp this year surely that means something. At least in the top 8 Collingwood will be. Apart from my critiques, I agree with the notion that St. Kilda and Melbourne will make it into the 8. They have been building for a while and they have really solid teams now. As for teams like Richmond and West Coast, I can see them climbing a few spots from where they normal finished.

Because the Dogs finished 7th safely and were a win off top 4 with an injury list a mile long.

And Collingwood finished in 12th with a reasonably fit side and lost significant pieces.

 

[magpienato]

Thus it's assuming that Collingwood has a fully fit Wells, for example.

The coaching staff at Collingwood are making Wells out as if he's some kind of Hero who is going to bring Collingwood to the Granny. In all honesty, it was a good pick up but even if he does find a way to become fit enough to play, I don't think he will have as much as an impact as they think he will. At best he might be another Varcoe which we don't really need at the moment.

 

[magpienato]

Because the Dogs finished 7th safely and were a win off top 4 with an injury list a mile long.

And Collingwood finished in 12th with a reasonably fit side and lost significant pieces.

Yeah but that's all last year, you have to look at the teams they have built during the off season. Richmond last year was looking good but they still needed that kick. With what I've seen in the off season (and preseason games) I think they can seriously contend. And hey, I might be wrong in the end but just remember all the people saying Freo was on their way to being a Premiership winning team and then immediatley after the 2015 season they sunk to the depths of the ocean

 

[Mr.X]

Most predictions in this thread will be as accurate as this guy

 

[Righteo]

Yeah but that's all last year, you have to look at the teams they have built during the off season. Richmond last year was looking good but they still needed that kick. With what I've seen in the off season (and preseason games) I think they can seriously contend. And hey, I might be wrong in the end but just remember all the people saying Freo was on their way to being a Premiership winning team and then immediatley after the 2014 season they sunk to the depths of the ocean

Depths of the ocean = minor premiers?

 

[Bazza97]

Champion Data has an interesting ladder prediction:



I think they've overrated Collingwood and underrated Essendon but I agree with a lot of it!

Wouldn't put too much stock into Champion Data's analysis for anything. A lot of flawed analysis which shouldn't be taken seriously. Putting the two most likely teams to make the finals from outside the top 8 this year at 12th and 13th respectively gave me a good chuckle. Highly doubt that the Power would finish just outside the top 4 and they look quite unlikely to make the 8 at all this year. When CD considers Josh Caddy an elite player and considers Melbourne to have the worst midfield in the comp going into this year, you know that CD shouldn't be taken seriously at all.

 

[Bokonon_]

Yeah but that's all last year, you have to look at the teams they have built during the off season. Richmond last year was looking good but they still needed that kick. With what I've seen in the off season (and preseason games) I think they can seriously contend. And hey, I might be wrong in the end but just remember all the people saying Freo was on their way to being a Premiership winning team and then immediatley after the 2014 season they sunk to the depths of the ocean

Trying to make a prediction too scientific wont work. Reality is anything can happen. The difference between the clubs isn't that great. There's a lot of facors at play besides the obvious, list, injuries etc. I wouldn't be shocked if Freo finished top 4, or if they went backwards. As for everyone else it's how the team performs over the 22 rounds, form and confidence etc