Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[The Old Dark Navy's]

In age order as of 1/1/2017



In height order:



In games order:



In goal average order:

 

[Stig O'Hara]

So who's our Greg Tivendale???

 

[ShanDog]

I LOVE that for the second year running, Jones is our highest average goal scorer lol

 

[I bleed Blue]

Liam jones leading goals per game average.

Damn we have a shyte forward line

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I LOVE that for the second year running, Jones is our highest average goal scorer lol

Over his career yes. Not too many are going to bang on a heap of goals in one season to pass his lousy goal a game average. Surely ... surely Silvagni and Curnow overtake him if they string games together.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Great thread ODN. Was wondering how many on our list are top 20 picks...now i know, nearly half.

 

[ShanDog]

Over his career yes. Not too many are going to bang on a heap of goals in one season to pass his lousy goal a game average. Surely ... surely Silvagni and Curnow overtake him if they string games together.

This exercise of stats comparison really highlight how misleading they can be.

If you showed those stats to someone unfamiliar with the game or our team and told them to pick a starting lineup, you'd likely end up with something verrrrry different to how we'd see it!

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

This exercise of stats comparison really highlight how misleading they can be.

If you showed those stats to someone unfamiliar with the game or our team and told them to pick a starting lineup, you'd likely end up with something verrrrry different to how we'd see it!

25 years old, 84 goals in 83 games. Jones isn't impressing anybody.

 

[Azul]

25 years old, 84 goals in 83 games. Jones isn't impressing anybody.

Levi Casboult: 26, 71 in 72.

 

[ShanDog]

25 years old, 84 goals in 83 games. Jones isn't impressing anybody.

Well if scorelines were more like soccer it would be impressive

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Levi Casboult: 26, 71 in 72.

I'm failing to see your point. Is anybody impressed by Levi's goalkicking exploits?

Having said that, contested marking stats and the fact he also rucks on occasion would help his case a tiny bit.

 

[RudyBlue]

That 22-27 sweet spot makes for some dire reading

 

[Arr0w]

Great thread TODN, the other day was looking at our oldest players. At the end of next year, our average age could be the lowest in the league

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Note that we specifically addressed having no 20 year olds by getting Marchbank and Pickett and only having 2 depth 24 year olds by adding Smedts. Aside from Palmer who just lends experience and is a goalkicking mid, we addressed talent depth in age groups they were lacking. Quite deliberate.

 

[Azul]

I'm failing to see your point. Is anybody impressed by Levi's goalkicking exploits?

Jones was more consistent this year than Casboult and yet Levi is considered an undroppable by the match committee.

Don't get me wrong, Liam has a low ceiling but Levi has an even lower floor. But I think Jones is reviled more by Malthouse's decision to recruit him and that we've seen Casboult grow from seed.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Jones was more consistent this year than Casboult and yet Levi is considered an undroppable by the match committee.

Don't get me wrong, Liam has a low ceiling but Levi has an even lower floor. But I think Jones is reviled more by Malthouse's decision to recruit him and that we've seen Casboult grow from seed.

They were quite similar in output in 2016. Levi gets the nod over Jones because he crashes packs, draws extra defensive attention and can pinch hit in the ruck. Probably more than a stats thing when you look big picture. They were both ordinary.

 

[LanceRomance]

Dylan buckley is 5 foot 10? lol

 

[mediumsizered]

They were quite similar in output in 2016. Levi gets the nod over Jones because he crashes packs, draws extra defensive attention and can pinch hit in the ruck. Probably more than a stats thing when you look big picture. They were both ordinary.

Levi used to crash packs. There was less evidence of this during the 2016 season & his contested marking fell away as well.

It's now 4 years since Basil Zempalas told us impossible is nothing, in what I had hoped was Levi's break-through game. Like Liam Jones, it is very clear that Levi is not going to be an answer to our KPF woes.

 

[Jimmae]

Dylan buckley is 5 foot 10? lol

183-5=178

 

[TeeJay Blue]

They were quite similar in output in 2016. Levi gets the nod over Jones because he crashes packs, draws extra defensive attention and can pinch hit in the ruck. Probably more than a stats thing when you look big picture. They were both ordinary.

Both Jones and Casboult were crashing packs this year. It is just that Casboult has more success, given his potential to be one of the best contested marks in the game. He draws more attention as he is already seen as our fixed main man up forward. But yes in reality both are not meeting the expectations and that is both theirs an the rest of the team's fault.

Everitt was mainly the player I had issue with when it came to crashing packs. That is one of the possible reasons he didn't end up seeing 2017 at the club.

 

[LordLucifer]

We have 12 players on the list who are 195cm or taller.

Of that 12, there are only 3 or 4 who are proven or we have any genuine faith in.

To add insult to injury, one of them is a midfielder (and a damn good one at that).

 

[Coona Blues]

We have 12 players on the list who are 195cm or taller.

Of that 12, there are only 3 or 4 who are proven or we have any genuine faith in.

To add insult to injury, one of them is a midfielder (and a damn good one at that).

Not as dire as one may think TS, more about the slots we have "covered" going forward.

Marchbank and Charlie Curnow are shorter by listings, although reports filtering that both are taller than
the 191 and 193 currently reported. Marchbank genuine KPP and Curnow potentially a mobile Nick
Riewoldt style forward. Jack S possible a cm or 2 taller as well.

Fair to say that barring "breakouts", Levi, Jones and Gorringe are in their last seasons. (Levi may gain
some respite if transitions back to 2nd ruck role) Jaksch also in that bracket, although at 22, we can be
a little more hopeful.

Excluding the likely departures we still have a capable, if not developing spine, which will serve us well
for quite a while.
In defence Weitering, Marchbank and Rowe are genuine KPD. Plowman and White 3rd tall/undersized
KPD. Jaksch and JGM hopefully provide the depth/progression.
Up forward we have a little more doubt, but plenty of reason for optimism. McKay, Curnow, Weitering/
Marchbank/Jaksch as options, with young Jack, a 3rd tall. Clearly Bolts is following the two ruck option
which has been a staple of Hawthorn, so we will have a resting ruck in the mix too.

The much maligned Jaksch is such a pivotal figure in our list management going forward, if he pulls his
finger out, we have ample coverage at both ends of the ground. If not, we surely need to hit the draft for
a couple of talls (over and above Silvagni no. 2 to come) The problem is, however, this draft, Marshall
aside, has only sub 195cm KPP prospects, so your preferred profile could not improved.

I am of the firm belief that we must add a young ruckman in this draft period (includes Rookie Draft), on
exposed form, Darcy Cameron who has spent 3 years performing well in the WAFL both in the ruck and
kicking almost 2 goals a game would suit our needs best. (No problem if we went for a kid, just need one)

 

[LordLucifer]

All fair comments there Coona although I'm not in total agreeance.

I am not one for factoring in that players grow some extra cm's so that they can possibly play in a key position. If they do grow taller then that's a bonus but it shouldn't be the way we plan our list management, draft or trade them in with the physical attributes first & foremost. I still haven't recovered from O'Sullivan drafting Sporn so that he would grow into a KPP.

You are quite right, Casboult, Jones & Gorringe are certainly in their last seasons, it would be a miracle for one of them to dramatically turn it around.

Jacksh has been around a while now and knows what the AFL world is about, he too faces a nervous off-season next year, if he cannot make some serious inroads he will also be a casualty. I don't have any faith in him making that transition though and would rather we put our energies into another player with a more ferocious attitude.

JGM is a rookie-listed player, could end up being a winner selection if the development team can mould him, however, he also has a big question mark over him. Having said that, he is one player I'd really like to see come on in leaps & bounds because we desperately need him too.

Another ruckman should be a priority especially when you consider our ruck division is Korchek, Phillips, Kreuzer & Gorringe. There is way too much fragility in that lot for us to have any certainty of being dominant at stoppages. If Gorringe gets flung, Kreuzer suffered another serious injury (heaven forbid) and Korchek doesn't make it, then we are going to be in a world of pain having to rely on Phillips as first ruck and have others like Casboult pinch-hitting to cover the shortfall.

In addition to our need to bolster the midfield, another key forward & another key defender plus a solid ruckman must be found over the next two trade & draft periods.

Don't forget, if Rowe, Casboult, Gorringe, Jacksh & Jones get shown the door at the end of 2017 as I am expecting, we need some young tyros to be following up behind to fill their slots.

 

[Arr0w]

Coona Blues TheSheik you both make some solid points. Personally I have always been of the mindset, that if you rank a KPP and a midfielder at a similar level, take the KPP

This year I would hope that the club considered taking Brennan Cox at 25 and Darcy Cameron with a late pick

As mentioned by both of you, there are still question marks with our spine

 

[Coona Blues]

Coona Blues TheSheik you both make some solid points. Personally I have always been of the mindset, that if you rank a KPP and a midfielder at a similar level, take the KPP

This year I would hope that the club considered taking Brennan Cox at 25 and Darcy Cameron with a late pick

As mentioned by both of you, there are still question marks with our spine

Yeah SOS and co. have a tough task prioritising needs. I see us three midfielders short, so would love the club to prioritise there.
I agree that B.Cox is, on exposed form, the most attractive of the KPP prospects, being skilled, mobile, combative and able to play
at both ends of the ground, (falls marginally short of TheSheik height parameters) as I stated earlier, the development of Jaksch is
the key. If he comes on, we have no urgent need for KPP, simple list turn over, best available. We should get the answer on Friday
where the club rates the young talls. On paper, barring injury or JW going forward, our defence is set for a decade. Club has high
hopes for Harry, with Charlie, Jack, resting ruck and some smaller options we MAY be set up forward too. If Kerr was to slide to
#48, I would not object to SOS calling him out, has shown sufficient, with recent improvement to warrant a spot on merit aside
from his family ties.

A Cameron type ruck/forward would be just the ticket. Interestingly, his club rep compares him most favourably to young Goddard,
who is one of the higher rated 18yo rucks. Supposedly more mobility and better mark and scoreboard performance. While a little older,
has earned an AFL spot.....really hoping will be us, given our list profile. Would allow that big presence up forward while Harry is
maturing (on the assumption that Levi is not in our long term plans).

Oh for a crystal ball.......is there any substance to the Fyfe, 2 metre Peter rumours?.....what a difference they would make, virtually
immediate contenders 2018.