Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[ShanDog]

Trade Marc Murphy ....... ???






And people give me grief for some of my comments ...... FMD.

Lucifer claiming to be the lesser of two evils... I like it

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Not sure about this. Balic was originally a 3rd round pick and in his 2 seasons hasn't done anything to suggest he will be a good player. His personal issues haven't helped his low trade value either. Is he still on indefinite leave?

Did you watch his 2-3 games this year? Kid can play.

 

[La Dispute]

Murphy will stay while he's body is right and he's playing good footy.

He's played through some tough times and can probably see some light at the end of the tunnel, even if it's just to play a few early finals. We've shown enough improvement to be optimistic about the next few years and hopefully beyond.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Im not sure you got my point.

The idea can be right, can be the best way forward and the right way to build a strong list/team but the outcome can be wrong. That doesn't mean you through out the idea because it didn't work for you first time.
Hughes was just an example.

I got the point.
I also understand that if you do what SOS did at the end of 2015, you have to get it reasonably right.
Out went Henderson, Yarran, Bell and Menzel in trades, and then some delisted players ... if we didn't trade and draft well, and see the kids coming on, then we would be tearing the joint down ...

 

[La Dispute]

Did you watch his 2-3 games this year? Kid can play.

What do you like about him?

I haven't seen him play but a few have suggested he's quite good. Was really racking it up in the WAFL but have heard his disposal is suspect?

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

The law of averages says we are behind still for the Rogers and Hughes years.

Agree SOS has nailed it the last 2 drafts (and in pre-draft trading).

I hope Rogers and Hughes have done something positive with their skill set and have opened a Jim's Mowing franchise together.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

What do you like about him?

I haven't seen him play but a few have suggested he's quite good. Was really racking it up in the WAFL but have heard his disposal is suspect?

Smothered quite a few times. Not afraid to do the hard stuff.

 

[gab213]

Do you think if the Dees actually new how to draft we would still use them in these hypotheticals?

If Hughes had of traded out all the guys SOS had and drafted in duds instead of the guys we have brought in, was the process right or wrong?

I wasn't referring to their drafting, that wasn't the argument. It was about letting their mature players go, creating a void and destabilising the whole club. In the process a few promising young players' development was also affected.

Drafting well is part of the puzzle, it isn't the full story.

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

Just had a better thought.
Maybe a jobs agency for the unemployed.
Would be useful for all the poor kids they recruted.
Double win!

 

[DangerousD]

Did you watch his 2-3 games this year? Kid can play.

I saw him show glimpses of potential and expected him to continue improving thus raising his value. Then he took indefinite leave and we are back here. Im open to getting him but feel it will be less.

 

[Aphrodite]

This will make things more interesting come trade week.

Same article is in the HUN but it's behind that damn paywall:-


Giants to be stripped of first-round draft pick

https://www.zerohanger.com/giants-stripped-first-round-draft-pick-13164/

The GWS Giants will lose their first round draft selection this season after the league confirmed the news on Friday night.
Following the incident involving Lachie Whitfield and his evasion of a drug test over two years ago, the midfielder was banned for six-months and the Giants were fined $100,000 and 1000 draft points.

The 1000 points equate to a late first round pick this season, and as it stands, GWS would have the 17th pick in the 2017 National Draft.
AFL spokesman Patrick Keane confirmed on Friday the Giants could not bundle up later picks that add up to 1000 points, meaning they’ll have to give up pick 17.

 

[ESKIE]

Yes interesting cone trade time

 

[Aphrodite]

Yes interesting cone trade time

Come on down Josh Kelly!

 

[ShanDog]

Come on down Josh Kelly!

I'm sure they'll have plenty of suiters happy to trade and get them back in the first round, but it might mean a single first round pick for Kelly and Hopper could be enough (aside from later pick swaps). They'd be pretty desperate to ensure they have a first rounder to use.

 

[HARKER]

Surprised that is worthy of an announcement as that was always going to happen in that manner.

Still see GWS the ring keener on players this year..... Although next year's firsts would appeal.

 

[Iamcarlton]

If we lose Gibbs and get Adelaide's first rounder (say 15), then I would take the hit in the 2017 draft and get Kelly and Hopper for our first (say 3) and Adelaide's (the 15), and perhaps swap our 2018 second for GWS' 2018 second.

The assessment would be that the top players in the 2017 draft are not that great. We hold onto our 2018 first rounder and have a lower 2018 secound round pick.

Kelly and a Hopper would hit the ground running as it were and would slot straight into our Best 22. Our midfield is no worse if not better with Gibbs leaving and our 2016 and 2017 draftees get more games ... watch out in 2019 ...

And I back SPS, Charlie, Fisher and Cuningham to add more midfield minutes next year, and Pickett and Polson to be best 22 next year too. That's not too bad if the midfield has Murphy, Cripps, Ed, Kelly and Hopper ...

That would be an ideal and dream result

 

[Beer n Skittles]

While I'd like to land Kelly, IMO Hopper is where the value is at. Once he starts hitting his straps he'll be a very good player.

We would only need to trade Gibbs for Adelaide's 1st, then offer that on for Hopper. GWS would ask for more, but now they can't even suggest downgrading our first into theirs as they don't have one anymore.

Kelly would cost both our 1st & Adelaide's (so our 1st & Gibbs). Plus potentially $1M pa

 

[Aphrodite]

While I'd like to land Kelly, IMO Hopper is where the value is at. Once he starts hitting his straps he'll be a very good player.

We would only need to trade Gibbs for Adelaide's 1st, then offer that on for Hopper. GWS would ask for more, but now they can't even suggest downgrading our first into theirs as they don't have one anymore.

Kelly would cost both our 1st & Adelaide's (so our 1st & Gibbs). Plus potentially $1M pa

 

[ESKIE]

Saints have hawks 1st pick this year

 

[Blueyourmyboy!!]

While I'd like to land Kelly, IMO Hopper is where the value is at. Once he starts hitting his straps he'll be a very good player.

We would only need to trade Gibbs for Adelaide's 1st, then offer that on for Hopper. GWS would ask for more, but now they can't even suggest downgrading our first into theirs as they don't have one anymore.

Kelly would cost both our 1st & Adelaide's (so our 1st & Gibbs). Plus potentially $1M pa

He still has to nominate us... Otherwise saints in better position with 2 top 10 picks.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

He still has to nominate us... Otherwise saints in better position with 2 top 10 picks.

Sure but the trade hypothetical is pointless unless they nominate Carlton. If Hopper nominates St Kilda no trade we put forward is going to matter

 

[The Smoking Gun]

No player picked in the draft is guaranteed to be an elite player. We have three former number one draft picks and none of them are elite players, albeit very good. You faith in picking up an elite draft player just because he is a number two pick is misplaced.

I generally agree with what you've said here, but there is one factor you've failed to take into account. I'm one who believes that to some degree players are a product of their environment. For the better part of two decades CFC has lacked direction, development, ethics, standards and discipline. The board, coaches, list managers and players were all to blame. Would Murphy & Gibbs have ended up running both ways playing under the guidance Clarkson or Lyon??? We'll never know, but I suspect they would've ended up being somewhat different players to the ones they are now.

The club is in pretty astute hands now so I'm quite comfortable with the SOS & Bolts taking pick 2 or 3 to the draft.

 

[Foucault1989]

There really is no basis of fact for comments such as these. Its over the top nonsense.

You're kidding yourself if you don't honestly think Murphy and Gibbs have been instrumental in all our wins. I don't understand why so many people here view players as empty commodities. They are people who contribute to the culture of the club...something you can't just buy and sell out

 

[true blue19]

Out of curiosity - why not?

In the last two drafts we've picked up 11 players. 7 of them are now genuine senior players already (Weitering, Curnow, SOS, Cuningham, SPS, Fisher, Williamson), and of the other four (McKay, Macreadie, Kerr and Polson) three are talls who will require a bit longer to develop, but all four are highly rated internally and will likely be afforded more senior opportunities sooner rather than later (Macreadie and Polson have in fact already debuted).

9-11 AFL-quality draftees in two years has got to be almost unheard of outside the expansion clubs.

Add to that we've recruited Marchbank, Plowman and Pickett who are young and highly talented (Pickett likely to feature again when he gets his fitness base back up post- last year's injury). We've also apparently turned Jones into a defensive monster, Kreuzer is showing the form of his career and should be capable of continuing it for at least 3 years, Casboult has remembered how to kick and Byrne is just returning from an ACL lay-off.

If we've exceeded our own expectations in terms of rebuilding through the draft, why shouldn't we be open to trading out two first rounders and a senior player like Gibbs to secure two extremely talented young mids who will play 10-12 years of excellent footy?

Marchbank, Jones, Plowman
Docherty, Weitering, Byrne
Williamson, Hopper, SPS
Kreuzer, Cripps, Kelly
Cuningham, Casboult, Curnow
Murphy, McKay, Silvagni
Fisher, Pickett, Curnow, Simpson, Macreadie, Sumner, Kerr, Polson, Lamb, Thomas, Graham, Smedts, ASOS, etc.

OUT: Pick 3, Gibbs (on-trade pick to GWS) and a future pick (likely 5-10, possibly later)
IN: Kelly (23yo, Brownlow contention, former Pick 2), Hopper (20yo, former Pick 7, but rated higher by many) and whatever else we can scrounge out of Adelaide (Wigg, second rounder etc.) and GWS (I still reckon Himmelberg would be easily gettable as steak-knives)

Also, consider that we may have our eye on some free agents in the coming years as well. Throw Tom Lynch in at the end of 2018, and Dylan Shiel at the end of 2019...you see where this is going, yeah?

The more I look at our drafting in the last two years, the less I'm convinced we absolutely have to go for another big draft haul, especially if the quality of this draft is being questioned a bit.

You made my point in saying to trade Gibbs and try and get a 2nd round from adelaide. We can't just skip the draft.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

10k cap reached - continued here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2017-list-management-discussion-part-ii.1169652/