2017 Rising Star Discussion

[hk89]

for a finalist v a non-finalist?

How exactly is that a basis for comparison?

1.5 wins difference, you speak as if you are Adelaide.

 

[Bardo State]

It'd certainly be odd if McGrath won over Burton. Curnow would be a different argument due to the vastly different role he plays (I think his impact has been understated by many and wouldn't begrudge him the award). But simply, Burton was playing a bigger role, was more effective with his disposal and was getting to more contests (noticeably more 1%ers). McGrath was quite good for a first year player. Composed and strong over head. But he either didn't have confidence in his kicking or hasn't adjusted to the pace of the game yet (understandable). On the other hand, Burton has a very high kick:handball ratio and an exceptionally high DE% for someone that kicks that often (McGrath's high too but perhaps to be expected from a handball heavy back pocket). This also resulted in a gulf in terms of metres gained, inside 50s and rebound 50s. McGrath was simply playing things much safer and wasn't someone Essendon wanted to use as a primary outlet from defense. Were his defensive efforts on small forwards so phenomenal that all of this is counteracted? If so, why does Ryan Burton have the advantage when it comes to intercepts, one percenters, contested marks and tackles? Personally I'm more impressed by a young player being able to take on key position forwards as Burton did. So defensively, Burton was affecting more contests and offensively he was far more impactful with his ball use and had the versatility to play (well) as a genuine KPP.

I'm trying but I really don't see the 'contest' other than residual hype from being the number one pick.

 

[Back One Out]

The fact that Daniher only got 23 votes (having kicked 62 goals - while spending a decent amount of time in the ruck) and Burton got 37 votes on the equivalent rankings for Hawks just shows how poor the Hawks actually were this year. Not hard to be placing top 5 each week when you have one great player in Tom Mitchell and not much else. Well they do have 34 year old Burgoyne - he's still pretty good, albeit no longer in his prime.

You only have to look at how many votes Mitchell got relative to everyone else to realise how difficult it was to finish top 5 each week at the Hawks (not very). I mean Mitchell had a great year - and will be a deserved AA but he's not Dustin Martin or Dangerfield good. 80 votes is pretty funny. The enormous gulf between him and the rest of the list just shows a thin list with few reliable performers.

I mean Sicily had as many votes as Daniher. That is hilarious!!!
By all means Hawks supporters - go start the poll. Who had the better 2017: Daniher vs Sicily

LOL

So the Hawks are an incredibly weak team who finished 1.5 wins behind the all-powerful Essendon line up (and they managed to outperform the mighty Bombers from Round 5 to Round 23.)

That was with a more difficult fixture, mind you. Not the cupcake wooden spooners schedule that Essendon received with extra games vs the bottom 4 teams. The Hawks played the 3 best teams twice (Adel, Geel, Syd)

I think the Hawk board votes show that Burton had a great season. Almost equal with Ben McEvoy whom many experts said was unlucky to miss selection in the All Australian squad.

 

[Ambrosia]

I have Burton winning but the gap is no where near as big as Hawthorn supporters make out.
Especially when McGrath is number 1 in the league for defensive rating per the AFL website.

"Andrew McGrath (Essendon)
The No.1 pick has the best defender rating of any player in the competition with at least six or more match-ups of 40 or more minutes. The defender rating is based on what you concede to your opponent compared to his average output"

I'm not taking this stat as gospel but when McGrath is rated number one in the league at restricting his opponent I don't see how Burton can be streets ahead.

 

[HairyO]

I have Burton winning but the gap is no where near as big as Hawthorn supporters make out.
Especially when McGrath is number 1 in the league for defensive rating per the AFL website.

"Andrew McGrath (Essendon)
The No.1 pick has the best defender rating of any player in the competition with at least six or more match-ups of 40 or more minutes. The defender rating is based on what you concede to your opponent compared to his average output"

I'm not taking this stat as gospel but when McGrath is rated number one in the league at restricting his opponent I don't see how Burton can be streets ahead.

McGrath played on Taylor Duryea types. Burton played on Tex, Brown, Buddy, etc.

That is how you value it.

Though he did keep Eddie quiet, but still managed to shank a kick early which turned in to a goal. That said, Adelaide managed 18? goals so the obvious argument is Essendon spent far too much time worrying about Eddie.

Anyway there was a comment about Burton and turnovers. He kicked the ball far more and far further so more turnovers makes sense. Id rather the guy clearing the ball than the guy handballing sideways. The game has a LOT of those.

 

[Ambrosia]

McGrath played on Taylor Duryea types. Burton played on Tex, Brown, Buddy, etc.

That is how you value it.

Though he did keep Eddie quiet, but still managed to shank a kick early which turned in to a goal. That said, Adelaide managed 18? goals so the obvious argument is Essendon spent far too much time worrying about Eddie.

This is not an accurate representation of what happened this season at all.

 

[Procrastinator35]

This is not an accurate representation of what happened this season at all.

Maybe not....But this is:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-30/our-reporters-pick-this-years-rising-star-winner

Ryan Burton: 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 3, 5, 4, 4 (77 votes)
Andrew McGrath: 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 3, 5, 5 (67)
Sam Powell-Pepper: 1, 2, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3 (54)
Charlie Curnow: 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2 (34)
Eric Hipwood: 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1 (13)
Tom Phillips: 1, 1, 1 (3)
Caleb Marchbank: 2 (2)
Sam Petrevski-Seton: 1, 1 (2)
Dan Butler: 1 (1)
Blake Hardwick: 1 (1)
Alex Witherden: 1 (1)

 

[citizen-erased]

McGrath played on Taylor Duryea types. Burton played on Tex, Brown, Buddy, etc.

That is how you value it.

Though he did keep Eddie quiet, but still managed to shank a kick early which turned in to a goal. That said, Adelaide managed 18? goals so the obvious argument is Essendon spent far too much time worrying about Eddie.

Anyway there was a comment about Burton and turnovers. He kicked the ball far more and far further so more turnovers makes sense. Id rather the guy clearing the ball than the guy handballing sideways. The game has a LOT of those.

ill raise you McGrath's shank with Burton being outmarked by Pickett for a goal in the loss to Carlton

 

[MasterSamurai]

Burton is the better player as of now.

 

[blitzer]

McGrath played on Taylor Duryea types. Burton played on Tex, Brown, Buddy, etc.

That is how you value it.

Though he did keep Eddie quiet, but still managed to shank a kick early which turned in to a goal. That said, Adelaide managed 18? goals so the obvious argument is Essendon spent far too much time worrying about Eddie.

Anyway there was a comment about Burton and turnovers. He kicked the ball far more and far further so more turnovers makes sense. Id rather the guy clearing the ball than the guy handballing sideways. The game has a LOT of those.

So he plays on Tayler Duryea types but then you quote an example of him playing on probably the best small forward in the game in Eddie Betts. Some would argue that this may be a little inconsistent.
Now McGrath held Betts to 0 goals (which is an amazing defensive effort) and turned over 1 goal. Now - call me crazy but I suspect that with the extra 1.7 turnovers per game that Burton probably turned over more goals throughout the season than McGrath did. However I don't think any of us care enough to find the exact moments. So this strikes me as a rather desperate attempt to talk down a recent dominant performance from McGrath.

McGrath: Number 1 defensive rated player in the AFL. That has a nice ring to it. Number 1 draft pick. That sounds good too. 1st year player - still a teenager.
Stronger recent performances. Helped his team make the finals. Strong media performer already even at his young age.

I don't really blame Hawks supporters for being worried. These panels are easily swayed by shiny things and McGrath is absolutely gleaming.

 

[HairyO]

ill raise you McGrath's shank with Burton being outmarked by Pickett for a goal in the loss to Carlton

Clearly carrying an injury !

 

[BRAB]

I'm starting to think Jarrod Berry may not win this award

 

[hawkman]

I'm starting to think Jarrod Berry may not win this award

Aren't most of these the same selectors that put Selwood on the bench of the AA team

Anything is possible

 

[Jeremias]

Maybe not....But this is:

Did laugh at someone giving votes to Blake Hardwick over Charlie Curnow.

I guess it's a slight upgrade on the AFL media voted team of the week which you've continuously hung your hat on.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Did laugh at someone giving votes to Blake Hardwick over Charlie Curnow.

I guess it's a slight upgrade on the AFL media voted team of the week which you've continuously hung your hat on.

LOL....Interesting that of all the anomalies there, you chose to focus upon the Hardwick vote.

The lads had a good enough season to warrant a single vote methinks.

Team of the week was merely one aspect of highlighting the excellent season Burton has had....Super Coach scores was another.....And the Champion Data stats were another again.

Funny how Burton kicked his oppositions butts in all 3 of em.

Something more shocking still was Selwood's selection in the AA team....Though given his free kick stats year after year.....Then maybe not.

 

[Jeremias]

LOL....Interesting that of all the anomalies there, you chose to focus upon the Hardwick vote.

Well yeah.

I'm not going to argue over Burton vs McGrath because whilst I think the former will win, a pretty reasonable argument can be made for McGrath also.

Was more interested where most are putting Charlie given I think he's a good chance to finish 3rd and may be fighting it out with SPP for that placing, so I was surprised to see Hardwick was rated by one 'expert' ahead of Curnow.

The lads had a good enough season to warrant a single vote methinks.

Hasn't had anywhere near the year Curnow has.

Team of the week was merely one aspect of highlighting the excellent season Burton has had....Super Coach scores was another.....And the Champion Data stats were another again.

All pretty laughable metrics really. As mentioned ad nauseum previously by many posters, myself included.

 

[DangerSloane]

How about we peruse the "Player of the Year" votes from the club boards?

Both use the same 5-4-3-2-1 method.


Essington
40 - Michael Hurley
40 - Zach Merrett
32 - Dyson Heppell
29 - David Zaharakis
24 - Brendon Goddard
23 - Joe Daniher
21 - Orazio Fantasia
19 - Andrew McGrath
15 - Anthony Tipungwuti
13 - Cale Hooker

Hawthorne
80 - Tom Mitchell
38 - Ben McEvoy
37 - Ryan Burton
23 - James Sicily
20 - Shaun Burgoyne
19 - Jack Gunston
18 - Jarryd Roughead
14 - Isaac Smith
13 - Liam Shiels
11 - Luke Breust, Luke Hodge


Burton (along with Mitchell) was one of Hawthorn's few good players during their woeful 1-6 start

Side note: Those votes above also highlight how Joe Daniher's season has been overrated in terms of whether he deserves All Australian selection. Hardly a dominant season by him to be in 6th place behind Goddard, Heppell and Zaharakis. The Essendon mafia has been working long and hard to ensure his name is placed up there alongside the 2 best KPFs: Franklin and Kennedy

I'd say thats more of a reflection on Hawthorns rubbish season than anything else. Look at some of those names on <20 votes. Gunston, Smith, Shiels, Hodge, Bruest... embarassing really.

Essendon had 3 players in the AA best 22. Bit harder to be top 3 on their list.

Also roles very different, Burton has the 'hero' role, running half back, lots of ball.
McGrath often played lockdown roles...

FWIW I think Burton should win, even though all I've just said is to the contrary.

 

[DangerSloane]

People using supercoach score to measure a players worth.

Thats so 2010.

 

[KermitJagger]

This is a painful thread, like pulling teeth. The most I've got from it is that a defender's role isn't rewarded as much as it should be in the AFL player ratings system. I'm not sure what they base their ratings on, but Burton and McGrath's best games were phenomenal but they're ranked in the mid/lower echelon for "best game" based on their player rating.

 

[dipper86]

ill raise you McGrath's shank with Burton being outmarked by Pickett for a goal in the loss to Carlton

LOL you're acting as if its was a body on body contest, he ran of his man to spoil and Pickett marked in front, he didn't even get to the point to make body contact. Still finished with 23 disposals 8 marks 3 I50 5 R50 and 1 goal....even with a sore foot that had him miss the last round.

 

[Procrastinator35]

1. Hasn't had anywhere near the year Curnow has.

2. All pretty laughable metrics really. As mentioned ad nauseum previously by many posters, myself included.

1. No one's said he has....Why so defensive?
2. And yet Burton is favorite....Which rather more points to all 3 of those metrics as fair indications in spite of your polemics to the contrary.

 

[Back One Out]

I'd say thats more of a reflection on Hawthorns rubbish season than anything else. Look at some of those names on <20 votes. Gunston, Smith, Shiels, Hodge, Bruest... embarassing really.

Essendon had 3 players in the AA best 22. Bit harder to be top 3 on their list.

Also roles very different, Burton has the 'hero' role, running half back, lots of ball.
McGrath often played lockdown roles...

FWIW I think Burton should win, even though all I've just said is to the contrary.

If you look past the abysmal first month, Hawthorn's season wasn't that bad. I posted a ladder from Rd 5 to 23 which shows the Hawks ahead of Essendon and just 1 win behind Adelaide and Geelong.

As for Burton playing the "hero role", the All Australian selectors (same guys judging the Norm Smith) didn't seem to have any issues with picking 6 "heroes" for the All Australian backline

The Big Footy brain trust doesn't seem to take into account how Hawthorn was decimated by injuries this season. Frawley, Gibson, Birchall, Stratton, O'Meara, Ceglar, Puopolo, Rioli and 3 or 4 fringe players missed virtually the entire season.

That's most of our premiership-winning defence!!!

Burton played bloody well alongside inexperienced players such as Brand, Hardwick, Sicily, Glass, etc. Gunston also played a new role in defence and looked lost for most of the season. Luke Hodge was there and played like a getriatric.

I see Essendon fans trying to make out how "easy" Burton had it compared to McGrath

McGrath had a great year by all reports, but maybe it helped playing in a settled backline with experienced players such as Hurley, Baguley, Goddard

 

[Jeremias]

1. No one's said he has

So one particular 'expert' gave Hardwick a vote over Curnow, but doesn't believe the former had the better year?

Righto.

2. And yet Burton is favorite....Which rather more points to all 3 of those metrics as fair indications in spite of your polemics to the contrary.

Maybe Lance Uppercut can be bothered pointing out the blatant absurdity here, because I certainly can't.

Suffice to say the bolded is clearly complete garbage.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Maybe Lance Uppercut can be bothered pointing out the blatant absurdity here, because I certainly can't.

Suffice to say the bolded is clearly complete garbage.

The fact you have Lance on side is more indicative of being at fault than anything else.

 

[Faz 2000]

This is a painful thread, like pulling teeth. The most I've got from it is that a defender's role isn't rewarded as much as it should be in the AFL player ratings system. I'm not sure what they base their ratings on, but Burton and McGrath's best games were phenomenal but they're ranked in the mid/lower echelon for "best game" based on their player rating.

If I'm reading your spiffy graph right, 3 of Carlton's 5 nominees are worse than the AFL average for their age and position? So like.. behind the curve? Ugh. That's not very exciting.

Though Charlie Curnow is further ahead of the curve than anyone (bar Burton) so that gives me the warm and fuzzies.