Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[HARKER]

Good on the guys for getting contract extensions but I must say, I wonder whether the rush is warranted.
Admittedly Kerr & Polson were to be out of contract at years end and I guess we feel we won't get anyone better after our de-listings, but it's not as though anyone would have rushed out and picked them up. De Koning had another year on his contract. why the rush?

Anyway, good luck to guys, but I don't recall us sticking our necks out so early and so often as we have done, in the past couple of years.

 

[Soapy V]

TDK til 2021.

They like him.

So do I. Something really really good about this kid. Just has a presence about him. May take another 2-3 years but equally good in Ruck or Forward

 

[Soapy V]

**** yeah. Fan of both their upsides.

If you can judge someone on attitude Kerr will make it. Lovely kid

 

[Soapy V]

I reckon Rowe is the key one there, he's still a chance to stay on another year I suspect.

Weitering, Marchbank, Jones, Rowe, Macreadie, Plowman, Silvagni

There's plenty to work with there. You've also got Schuey, Willo and Byrne who aren't small.

Collins as a direct replacement for Rowe makes sense. Younger version of the gorilla-defender, costs very little and gives us options. Keeping Rowe and adding Collins would be wasteful though.

Based on how I see the list and what we need next year I reckon Rowe stays. Hopefully as a back up and leader in the 2’s but I think he stays another year

Having said that I think he may be one of a few that may not know their fate until after trade period

 

[Soapy V]

Good on the guys for getting contract extensions but I must say, I wonder whether the rush is warranted.
Admittedly Kerr & Polson were to be out of contract at years end and I guess we feel we won't get anyone better after our de-listings, but it's not as though anyone would have rushed out and picked them up. De Koning had another year on his contract. why the rush?

Anyway, good luck to guys, but I don't recall us sticking our necks out so early and so often as we have done, in the past couple of years.

Stability and belief in the rebuild. I like it.

 

[Stamos]

Good on the guys for getting contract extensions but I must say, I wonder whether the rush is warranted.
Admittedly Kerr & Polson were to be out of contract at years end and I guess we feel we won't get anyone better after our de-listings, but it's not as though anyone would have rushed out and picked them up. De Koning had another year on his contract. why the rush?

Anyway, good luck to guys, but I don't recall us sticking our necks out so early and so often as we have done, in the past couple of years.

It's hardly early on Kerr, he's out of contract in 6 games. They're obviously bullish on TDK.

 

[BoltonsBlues]

Imo Graham would be great at the suns. Steak knives in any deal. But worth something

 

[BoltonsBlues]

Also midfield young gun brodie from GC rumour is not going away. Starting to find his staps at the suns so is going to be hard to pry away

 

[DangerousD]

Good on the guys for getting contract extensions but I must say, I wonder whether the rush is warranted.
Admittedly Kerr & Polson were to be out of contract at years end and I guess we feel we won't get anyone better after our de-listings, but it's not as though anyone would have rushed out and picked them up. De Koning had another year on his contract. why the rush?

Anyway, good luck to guys, but I don't recall us sticking our necks out so early and so often as we have done, in the past couple of years.

Any possibility the club or the AFL system is catching up with other sports who regurly extend/upgrade contracts early?

Pretty easy for struggling clubs to get in the ears of players not playing regurly in the year their contracts expire.

I know there are differences to other sports but to have players run down their contracts is unheard of in some codes.

 

[Soapy V]

Imo Graham would be great at the suns. Steak knives in any deal. But worth something

This is like people who keep saying add Casboult to a deal. They aren’t worth anything. Adding Casboult or Graham to a deal doesn’t make it better. Several times we have tried to off load Casboult without a bite. Graham can’t cement his spot in a side crying out for mids.

Just won’t happen. Adding crap to trades doesn’t make it better

 

[CJMB]

Yawn.

Please go ahead and point out the small amount of errors.

Got rid off betts and co wasn’t that consider a time of rebuild.

1-15 deny that all you want.

Sos is a dud imho

27.

Seems odd.

24yo, 194cm key defender. Not really what we're crying out for.

Played three years at Box Hill before getting drafted by Freo, so wouldn't be surprised if he worked a little with Bolton there.

www.aflplayers.com.au/article/players-voice-sam-collins/

Makes for interesting reading, and certainly comes across a mature, level-headed type who will put in the work.

If it's Rowe out, Collins in, I can probably get on board though.

Seems exactly what we're after.

I feel like I've typed this stuff a lot lately.

Our taller defenders by age:

Silvagni, 30, KPP defender and can play tight, body is cooked, gone this year.
Rowe, 30, KPP defender and can play tight, really being found out in his return from the knee, maybe survives another year at best.
Jones, 27, KPP defender who plays off his man, still new to this but plenty of questions on his long term future.
O'Shea, 26, 3rd man/medium defender, meant for depth only, should be gone this year (depending on contract status).
Plowman, 23, versatile medium defender who can play tight, leadership group, long term player.
Marchbank, 21, 3rd man/intercept specialist, captained AFLX so club rates his leadership, long term player.
Glass-McCasker, 21, KPP defender who hasn't fired a shot and will go this year.
Weitering, 20. KPP defender but prefers to be a bit loser and intercept (like Jones), I still rate his potential, long term player.
Macreadie, 20, KPP size but not necessarily lockdown, could be a wing/utility, highly rated junior, long term player.

Don't even consider Silvagni, Rowe, O'Shea or JGM when thinking forward to 2020 (an I wouldn't necessarily be banking on Jones).

So Plow, Marchbank, Weitering & Macreadie are the 4 I'm confident in long term. Plow is the most 'lock down' of the 4 of them but he's hardly a KPP defender, which is where Collins would fit in.

Scaling it from tight/lock-down to loose/roaming you'd have Collins > Weitering > Macreadie as talls and Plowman > Marchbank as more 'medium' size players. Could see Macreadie playing more of a wing role and Marchbank could venture around the ground a bit too. That combo of 5 taller defenders gives a fair amount of cover/versatility depending on who we're playing.

keep in mind we don't have to play all 5 at once before anyone slams me with that "our backs are already too tall!" stuff...

 

[BoltonsBlues]

Signing players we want to keep early. Less pressure on both player and club in the long run. Unless of course we are signing well knowns duds.... we are not. Polson Kerr and TDK signings are on potential.. the club likes them. And i do too. Thankfully we are not going to hear about new oshea and mullet signings unless they do a full liam jones

 

[TerryWallet]

So do I. Something really really good about this kid. Just has a presence about him. May take another 2-3 years but equally good in Ruck or Forward

The thing i like about TDK and Harry is their compatibility on the field as a Ruck/Forward and a Forward/Ruck imo.. They both really are a hedge against the other.

Neither has to be a superstar as long as both are good.

Both good = very good for us.
1 very good and 1 good = excellent for us.
Both very good = really, really good for us.

1 good and 1 no good = manageable

I really didn't consider someone like DeKonning pre-draft last year for us and that was a clear fault of mine. In hindsight, it was very deft List Management by pro list managers.

I've seen very little of TDK personally but am looking forward to the potential longterm combo of Charlie as the Pea Forward with TDK and Harry the Ruck/Forward combo when interchange rotations get reduced.

If it works, it will work bigtime.

 

[BoltonsBlues]

This is like people who keep saying add Casboult to a deal. They aren’t worth anything. Adding Casboult or Graham to a deal doesn’t make it better. Several times we have tried to off load Casboult without a bite. Graham can’t cement his spot in a side crying out for mids.

Just won’t happen. Adding crap to trades doesn’t make it better

Billy smedts got to us. Steak knifes... there are worse players than graham and he does have very small currency.. did not say a word on casboult and completly agree with your opinion on him. Unfortunalty stuck with big levi but maybe for the best. Graham on the other hand can still make something of himself. He may no he isnt part of the future at carlton. To me he looks like he needs a reset. Some players do. Grahams not going to be a star in any team. But u certainly need to show more respect for your own players.. dont need a mitch robinson situation happening again were we give players away for nothing because the player didnt work in our system.....

 

[Soapy V]

The thing i like about TDK and Harry is their compatibility on the field as a Ruck/Forward and a Forward/Ruck imo.. They both really are a hedge against the other.

Neither has to be a superstar as long as both are good.

Both good = very good for us.
1 very good and 1 good = excellent for us.
Both very good = really, really good for us.

1 good and 1 no good = manageable

I really didn't consider someone like DeKonning pre-draft last year for us and that was a clear fault of mine. In hindsight, it was very deft List Management by pro list managers.

I've seen very little of TDK personally but am looking forward to the potential longterm combo of Charlie as the Pea Forward with TDK and Harry the Ruck/Forward combo when interchange rotations get reduced.

If it works, it will work bigtime.

And if Kerr makes it and we get Lukosius flexible and exciting

 

[PrinceCharles]

Great to see Patrick extend his contract.

 

[Rick18]

Nicely done. Hope you put that on the main board thread.

One correction I can see, Ciaran Byrne is still on our list.

I value my sanity so I tend to avoid the main board at all costs!

Cheers for the typo spot

 

[HARKER]

It's hardly early on Kerr, he's out of contract in 6 games. They're obviously bullish on TDK.

It was on Polson. Also another 2 years on top of the one remaining for TDK......hasn't played a game yet.

It could back-fire. Whichever way, it's all a little bit rushed for mine.

 

[Weiterbot23]

Sorry for the intrusion. Minor piece of information that has been handed to me.

Carlton met with Sam Collins (ex Freo Defender currently at Werribee) earlier this week. You (along with GC) have shown genuine interest in picking him up.

All the best for the rest of the year.

Sam Collins is an A grade person off the field and imo would be an great cheap addition to the list.

 

[Cripps17]

Out of interest, I have looked at Melbourne's best 25 this year and listed below how long they have been on their list.

Interestingly, 19 of the 25 have been on their list 5 years or less. Comparatively, this will be season 2020 for us.

Melbourne's best 25 by years on list:
FB: 10th/4th/2nd(T)
HB: 2nd(T)/1st(T)/5th(T)
M: 4th/13th/5th
HF: 4th/8th/3rd(T)
FF: 4th(T)/5th/2nd
R: 9th/3rd/6th
IC: 1st/5th(T)/1st/4th
E: 5th(T)/6th(T)/5th

In summary, their best 25 is made up of:
>5 years: 6 players
3 to 5 years: 13 players
1 to 2 years: 6 players

Comparatively, our best 22 in 2020:
>5 years: 6 to 7 players
Cripps, Doc, Murph, Ed, Kreuz, Jones?, Simpson?

3 to 5 years on list: 12 to 15
Charlie, Marchbank, Plowman, Weitering, McKay, Fish, Pickett, Kennedy, Williamson, SPS, Dow, LOB, Macreadie?, Cuningham?, TDK, SOS?, Lang?, Garlett?

1 to 2 years: Still to got. It's also worth noting those 6 players for Melbourne are best 22.

If you can imagine adding 6 quality mature players to our best 22, with another 2 years development on our existing kids, you can probably see why the club is set on the plan and not yet concerned.

SOS' challenge is to attract those 6 players. Bolts' challenge is to get the results by 2020. Either of those fail, then we probably unravel fast.

 

[Weiterbot23]

It was on Polson. Also another 2 years on top of the one remaining for TDK......hasn't played a game yet.

It could back-fire. Whichever way, it's all a little bit rushed for mine.

Good for culture and development

In all likelyhood we would give TDK another year as a Ruck who was pick 30.

Why not put his mind at rest and give him the contract now, that way he won't start panicing this time next year and can concerntrait on becoming a star

 

[Gethelred]

Yawn.

Please go ahead and point out the small amount of errors.

Got rid off betts and co wasn’t that consider a time of rebuild.

1-15 deny that all you want.

Sos is a dud imho

You lost?

It's fine, I'm sure Richo's got you lot in a much better state...

Oh, wait.

 

[BoltonsBlues]

Rated sam collins when he played for freo. Didnt realise he was delisted. Moving oshea on for sam collins is a big win imo. And right now questioning why this didnt happen last draft period.

 

[ferrisb]

Good on the guys for getting contract extensions but I must say, I wonder whether the rush is warranted.
Admittedly Kerr & Polson were to be out of contract at years end and I guess we feel we won't get anyone better after our de-listings, but it's not as though anyone would have rushed out and picked them up. De Koning had another year on his contract. why the rush?

Anyway, good luck to guys, but I don't recall us sticking our necks out so early and so often as we have done, in the past couple of years.

For they guys who are extending before the last year of contract, I'd say a large part is front loading/salary cap management.

 

[Gethelred]

McVeigh is contracted to coach with the swans after he retires he is not going anywhere. They announced this earlier this week.

Would be the beginning of the end for them if that is indeed the case.

He could be among the greatest coach in training players ever, but you need to leave your sphere of influence and familiarity to truly learn how to coach properly, do an apprenticeship as an assistant somewhere else, and if the situation in Sydney changes at the right time maybe apply for the job.

If they went for him, even as just an assistant, he wouldn't be getting the feedback he'd get elsewhere. You need new and different ideas to become an AFL coach, not be in the same building with the same people for 20 years.