I reckon it will get mid 80s
2019 AFL Crowds & Ratings Thread
- Thread starter TigerTime_89
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I reckon it will get mid 80s
Im with you biggest club?,only game in town, knockout PF should be enough to get a big crowd Although Im thinking 80 - 85K depending on the weather.
I really hope it gets 90,000 but that 2017 PF was an absolute perfect storm
Only final in Victoria, giant club that hadn’t made a GF for 35 years, huge sentiment and momentum after winning their first final in 16 years and the perfect weather forecast.
Those variables lend itself to an enormous roll up from enthusiastic Richmond fans but also neutral MCC and AFL members
Let’s not kid ourselves, the variables at play here are very different to 2017
Only final in Victoria, giant club that hadn’t made a GF for 35 years, huge sentiment and momentum after winning their first final in 16 years and the perfect weather forecast.
Those variables lend itself to an enormous roll up from enthusiastic Richmond fans but also neutral MCC and AFL members
Let’s not kid ourselves, the variables at play here are very different to 2017
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- #3,255
There is definitely a greater disparity between the two codes at finals, at least the last couple of seasons. Seems to indicate the the afl have more casual viewers at finals time.
manicmagpie
A slice of fried gold
Just 81,927 between the two semi finals is the 5th lowest total since WWII. The only lower years were 2003, 2017, 2002 & 1999.
On the plus side the coming week looks a good chance to be the highest total for 2 different preliminary finals. The current record is 165,603 from 2009. Can't see Friday night being below 90k and Sat being below 80k so this record should fall.
The overall record for Preliminary Finals though will be tougher to break. It's currently 186,927 from 1962 where there was a draw and replay between Carlton and Geelong. Not impossible if everything goes well but very hard to beat.
On the plus side the coming week looks a good chance to be the highest total for 2 different preliminary finals. The current record is 165,603 from 2009. Can't see Friday night being below 90k and Sat being below 80k so this record should fall.
The overall record for Preliminary Finals though will be tougher to break. It's currently 186,927 from 1962 where there was a draw and replay between Carlton and Geelong. Not impossible if everything goes well but very hard to beat.
Or it just demonstrates the actual disparity......
The comparisons on an averages basis when one of the codes goes 50% longer and the majority of its games are at least in part overlapping during the season clouds the reality
The AFL wins that vast majority of Friday nights comfortably as well on an averages basis despite often finishing over an hour later
Amazingly the 1962 replay drew more than the Carl v Ess final.
Aside from 2007 I can’t think of another example where a Semi / Preliminary Final outdrew the Grand Final.
I guess it also emphasises the strength of Geelong’s drawing power during their 1960s heyday
Their were some massive Geelong Semi Final / Grand Final crowds during the 1962-1969 period
- Nov 20, 2018
- 1,459
- 1,661
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Geelong had massive drawing power around 89 to 95.
Yeah, the closest like-for-like comparison is Friday nights, and the AFL (certainly on a 5 metro rating) generally draws a signficantly greater audience.
The other thing I picked up (that would be encouraging for the AFL) is that the audience in Brisbane is very much skewed to the younger crowd in comparison to the NRL. Overall in Brisbane, both NRL matches outrated the Lions game (147k and 121k vs 112k) but in the younger demos the Lions outrated both games, and the younger the bigger the gap. In 16-39 the AFL had 46k, one NRL game was 32k, the other was likely much less than that.
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- #3,263
- Moderator
- #3,264
The NRL has diluted the appeal of "marquee" Friday Night Football by adding a Thursday night and Friday 6pm game to their weekly schedule.
And the fact that Collingwood does not have as many fans as Richmond that are members, and that turn up to games
This is the key point that nobody is mentioning
I wonder why
...and "closest" still doesn't fully capture that the AFL average is over an extra hour and finishing between 10 30 and 11
When you look at the reach of the games based on what was released recently about Kayo you get a similar story....the AFL has about 50% higher an audience than the NRL...
- AFL fans are watching an average of 3.5 hours each week, with some regular season games reaching over 100,000 users including the West Coast v Richmond clash on 18 August watched by 130,000 users.
- NRL fans were also watching an average of 3.5 hours each week, with some regular season games reaching nearly 70,000 users.
I know, I know don’t feed the troll and all that...
The only comparable, and it’s not exactly in the same ballpark, is the 88,500 that rocked up to the Collingwood v Adelaide 2002 Preliminary Final
That game drew almost exactly 10,000 more than the 2001 Richmond v Essendon QF, and 5,000 more than the 2001 Richmond v Carlton SF and the 1995 Richmond v Essendon SF.
Now I know there is lies, damned lies, and statistics but you get the picture.
Attendances for Victorian finals admittedly exploded around the 2010 finals series onwards and they have being from strength to strength ever since.
As a Hawthorn fan I dread the day but the next Victorian club that will set records for finals attendance is probably Essendon.
We are really in a golden age for finals attendance, really only comparable with the 1967-1976 period
manicmagpie
A slice of fried gold
The only times post WWII I can find where a GF was not the biggest crowd of the year are:
2010 PF Coll/Geel > GF Replay Coll/StK
2007 PF Coll/Geel > GF Geel/Port
1962 PF replay Carl/Geel > GF Carl/Ess
1948 all 3 minor finals > GF replay Melb/Ess
1946 SF Coll/Ess > GF Ess/Melb
1958 Rd 10 Melb/Coll > GF Melb/Coll
In both 2010 and 1948 the drawn GF was the biggest crowd.
manicmagpie
A slice of fried gold
After the fiasco of ticketing for last year’s Prelim the AFL Members put more flexibility into their system to allow for high demand matches.
They now have the options:
On Twitter last week an representative said that Richmond had ~5.5k total AFL Members (Gold & Silver), while Collingwood had ~11.5k. Geelong wasn’t mentioned but probably isn’t higher than 3k.
They now have the options:
- Gold (full) Members to have priority purchase period ahead of Silver Members;
- Silver Members restricted to certain areas only; or
- No restrictions at all - open slather for everyone (this was the only option last year)
On Twitter last week an representative said that Richmond had ~5.5k total AFL Members (Gold & Silver), while Collingwood had ~11.5k. Geelong wasn’t mentioned but probably isn’t higher than 3k.
Friday night one ticket per membership. Sat is two tickets per barcode.
It's interesting that you once (correctly) said that the 2017 preliminary crowd was extraordinary in general. Now you're saying the equivalent game on the weekend 'should be able to get at least 85k-90k' - so that's very close to the 2017 prelim crowd.
This is despite 2017 being Richmond's first home prelim for decades and Saturday night being Collingwood's seventh since 2002. By your own comments: either the 2017 crowd wasn't actually that extraordinary (because in less unusual circumstances you expect it to be almost replicated just 2 years later), or it was only extraordinary that Richmond got such a large crowd.
They need to do that for club memberships as well....
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