I decided to do a search of what the Tassie government actually said and found this article by Caro from 6 or 7 weeks ago that I missed. Some interesting info which partly confirms what you wrote but hints at a slightly stronger stance by the government.
The current 6 year TV deal ends 2022. Before that it was 3 x 5 year deals 2002-06, 2007-11, 2012-16 - The Tassie government signed 5 year deals with Hawks i line with that 2007-11, worth $16.5m with annual CPI increases and bonuses included in that total, 2012-16 $18m with CPI and bonuses inc, and 2017-21 worth $19m.
The term of the next TV deal either ending 2027 or 2028 will drive the timing Tassie gets a team and a share of that revenue stream.
Some of the numbers first
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...for-a-tasmanian-afl-team-20190322-p516mb.html
The AFL advice is that the state would require at least 50,000 members and an initial commitment of $40 million to enter the league.
Tasmania boasts 91,000 members across the 18 AFL clubs and contributes an estimated combined $10 million to the Hawks and the Kangaroos.
That framework includes:
- 50,000 members
- A capital commitment of $40 million
- A unified Tasmanian football community
- AFL-standard venues
- Increasing the Australian rules talent pool from junior ranks through to double-figure representation in the AFL
- Designing a "respectful" exit strategy for Hawthorn and North Melbourne.
The AFL distributions to the GWS and Gold Coast from 2012-16 totalled almost $170 million and still exceed an annual combined total of more than $45 million.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...for-a-tasmanian-afl-team-20190322-p516mb.html
The Tasmanian government is rallying a powerful group of corporate and sporting heavyweights charged to transition Hawthorn and North Melbourne out of the island state and to establish its own AFL club by 2026. The AFL is privately endorsing the project, which is being driven by Tasmanian Treasurer Peter Gutwein, who told The Age: "The time is right. It’s no longer a matter of if but when. In my view this should occur in the next five to seven years."
League chief Gillon McLachlan has emerged as a cautious advocate for a historic Tasmanian AFL licence, unofficially advising Premier Will Hodgman as his government puts together the charter for the project group with a view to gaining entry into the national competition by 2026.
.......
Gutwein indicated that the project group would work towards the team playing AFL games in both Hobart and Launceston........... "It’s important we can take everyone on this journey with us. Before we get a member or a corporate supporter we must demonstrate we are united and will work to improve out talent pathways. Where Hawthorn and North Melbourne are concerned they are our AFL partners and it is crucial we continue to respect those relationships. "The strength of those relationships beyond 2021 will be tested by how well and with what dignity we can manage those transitions to establish a team of our own."
While Hodgman in the past has declared Tasmania deserved a team ahead of the Gold Coast the new project’s strategy will avoid the establishment of a Tasmanian team at the expense of a current or relocated AFL club. The prevailing view is that Hawthorn would end their two-decade relationship Launceston at the end of 2021 while North Melbourne could continue to play AFL games at Blundstone Arena with the shortfall in Tasmanian fixtures made up by a series of other AFL clubs.
Interesting.
A lot of talk on the Hawthorn Board that Federal Labor's commitment to provide a $20m contribution towards the new Dingley development could be tied up with their commitment to provide $25m towards a new Tasmanian team.
Given that the Dingley commitment is forecast to be a $130m investment (and its likely to balloon further) that commitment is crucial to attract similar commitments from the State Government and the AFL.
Kennett has previously indicated that the club would need to raise a significant amount of finance independent of government and AFL commitments (with up to $25m already raised from benefactors and the Hawthorn Forever foundation)
The logical solution would be for North Melbourne to swallow the Hawthorn games or for a 3rd party to trump Hawthorn and North Melbourne (St Kilda, who has a historical affiliation with Tasmania stronger then any other VFL era club?) but that article heavily hints at Tasmania being issued a 19th license doesn't it