Analysis 2019 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[Kirkswan]

Hi all,

I've already posted in the introduction thread but just wanted to say that I'm a leaguie looking to get into some aussie rules.

I'm obviously a rookie and know next to nothing, but how is our list looking for next season? From what I can tell there's a good mixture of young up and coming talent as well as seasoned pros with a bunch of guys looking to transition from the former to the latter.

I'm looking forward to get familiar with the side, know the ins and outs and see how the bloods can improve from their results this year.

Well, that seems like a truly worthy goal to have, but I'm not all that sure you've come to the right place, lol!

Keep an eye on this thread, the Trades and Hypotheticals, and the General AFL Discussion thread; take the time to read List Management 101, and good luck!

Some of us have been trying to learn that stuff for years!

 

[The King!]

The big issue will be Kennedy Grundy smith jack and how close to the edge of the cliff they are

McVeigh less worried about

Rampe being umpired out of defence

Reid never fit
Can bud stay fit when it counts

Can the coach actually play something resembling attacking footy

Biggest concern is Kennedy though he looked old this year


Needs to be a good offseason

 

[Deccas]

Mills has got to move to the midfield and aliir to play his intercept role across half back with Grundy and Melican playing more accountable roles.

I think for us to have a really good year we need Florent to really step up in the midfield and I'm really hoping to see Oriordan and Dawson force themselves into the team.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

The big issue will be Kennedy Grundy smith jack and how close to the edge of the cliff they are

McVeigh less worried about

Rampe being umpired out of defence

Reid never fit
Can bud stay fit when it counts

Can the coach actually play something resembling attacking footy

Biggest concern is Kennedy though he looked old this year


Needs to be a good offseason

So Mr The King, it was you who pinched the last of my gin. You clearly drained it on hearing the Tayled-Off Durex news and before writing the above.

Still I think you have nailed some key points about our older brigade. We will be in a key transition year. Jack, Reg and Macca will all go at the end of next year. Smith and jpk may only have another two years.

Jack will be a depth player but have a key role in developing younger players in the twos

Macca had an excellent 2018, but I expect him to be managed in 2019. If we get 10-12 good games from him, we are in bonus territory.

Reg had a fair year in a defence under absurd pressure. We will need him on an as needs assistance when playing Oppo with two big forwards (assuming Melican takes one) or v Roughy, Hawkins, Brown. Like many I thought he was not well managed by the selectors.

Smithy represents a quandary. His strength is locking down small forwards, but will be still be up to the task against a Petracca, Green, Breust, Ablett, etc. His downside is his disposal. He is central to our chippetty, chippetty problem getting out of D50. While I don't have him in my 22 for Round 1, I have no doubt his name will be inked in. I won't quibble but think over the season he will play fewer games.

JPK is a wholly different issue. His form has tapered over the past two years from A++ to being a B+ mid. He still played some top notch games this year but they were sporadic. I thought he was carrying injury or the weight of captaincy or the pressure of underperforming comrades in the mids. He looked completely done in by the end of the season. Like Buddy, we must look to ways we can lighten the load, keep him fresh and extend his career. My two thoughts are:
* Share the captaincy role maybe with Parker or Rampe. JPK comes across as an introvert. He could be helped with sharing the role.
* If he is injured, do not play him.
* More minutes forward. He is a good contested mark and when not exhausted a good kick.
* Return joy of playing, through a more balanced game style.

Of the five above vets, JPK is the most crucial. He needs help.

 

[zyzzbruh]

Cool! Thanks for playing...

I haven't see Maibaum play, and tend to wonder why he wasn't given a go late this year? But I do agree that it's likely that Reg will make way, just not first round. Who's taking your kick ins? You've gone with no Naismith, which worries me, but most seem cool with...

It's the middle I have issues with... there is no way I limit Hewett's game time to when Kennedy isn't there. Hewett will be huge for us next year I reckon, will have a break out year! I like Parker, Heeney and Dawson on rotation through the forward line. All three are good marks and good kicks.

EDIT: Re the depth, yeah I know right! They've been building a really good team right before our eyes and we've been too busy whinging to notice. I reckon they're looking to put the final touches on this trade/draft period, and we're ready to have another go!!! Gotta love this club!

I’m surprised re maibaum aswell, seen a couple of neafl games and he held his own, can see him being a beast of a one on one player.

Rampe and McVeigh to take kick ins.

The fact that he doesn’t convince me aside, Naismith needs to get back from his knee injury let alone build form to break back into the team.

With the mid rotations Im not fussed seeing Kennedy and hewett in there together aslong as you’ve got a Dawson or papley as the 3rd, that would be my formula. I just don’t want to see them both together with Parker aswell. As much as it sounds good on paper Parker-Kennedy-hewett is a slow 1 dimensional midfield.

 

[scaryness]

With our current list (i.e. no Shiel, Moore, Gaff, Fyfe, Hogan and Duryea)

B: Rampe - Melican - Grundy
HB: McVeigh - Aliir - Jones
C: Lloyd - Kennedy - Heeney
HF: Papley - Reid - Ronke
F: Hayward - Franklin - McCartin
R: Sinclair - Parker - Hewett
INT: Cunningham - Mills - Florent - Dawson

EMG: Smith - Naismith - Jack - O'Riordan

 

[Number37]

With the mid rotations Im not fussed seeing Kennedy and hewett in there together aslong as you’ve got a Dawson or papley as the 3rd, that would be my formula. I just don’t want to see them both together with Parker aswell. As much as it sounds good on paper Parker-Kennedy-hewett is a slow 1 dimensional midfield.

IMO the bigger problem is that they all go for the same ball then we get exposed on the outside.

 

[zyzzbruh]

IMO the bigger problem is that they all go for the same ball then we get exposed on the outside.

Exactly. IMO that happens because we have 3 ‘go get the ball’ players in Parker-Kennedy-hewett in the middle. That’s why i’d want us to be more dynamic in there. Need a balance between outside and inside which we don’t have because of this machismo attitude of constantly being tough and hard at the contest.

 

[Number37]

Exactly. IMO that happens because we have 3 ‘go get the ball’ players in Parker-Kennedy-hewett in the middle. That’s why i’d want us to be more dynamic in there. Need a balance between outside and inside which we don’t have because of this machismo attitude of constantly being tough and hard at the contest.

That's why we need Nay-Nay or a real tap ruckman. Sinkers fights tooth and nail & more often than not hits the ball to nobody, then our mids all pile in. In the glory days of 2012 Macca and KJ were very good at waiting for JPK to get the ball to them on the outside.

 

[Kirkswan]

With our current list (i.e. no Shiel, Moore, Gaff, Fyfe, Hogan and Duryea)

B: Rampe - Melican - Grundy
HB: McVeigh - Aliir - Jones
C: Lloyd - Kennedy - Heeney
HF: Papley - Reid - Ronke
F: Hayward - Franklin - McCartin
R: Sinclair - Parker - Hewett
INT: Cunningham - Mills - Florent - Dawson

EMG: Smith - Naismith - Jack - O'Riordan

I like your team too! Are you basing Naismith as emergency due to no games since 2017, or do you think that Sinclair is now our number one ruck going forward? Also, how likely do you think it is that Dawson will play a mid/fwd combination this year and move in Kennedy's role next year? Oh, and one more, do you reckon Smith will play in the tows all year baring injury?

 

[The King!]

Based on who we have now I’ll make the coach Kennelly

 

[scaryness]

I like your team too! Are you basing Naismith as emergency due to no games since 2017, or do you think that Sinclair is now our number one ruck going forward? Also, how likely do you think it is that Dawson will play a mid/fwd combination this year and move in Kennedy's role next year? Oh, and one more, do you reckon Smith will play in the tows all year baring injury?

Sinclair: number one ruck. I don't really like Naismith a whole lot, and I want McCartin in the team so can't justify having a ruckman I don't rate playing as well as a 4-tall forward line.

Smith: I think he will play every AFL game, I just personally don't have him best 22 anymore. Ditto for Jack.

Dawson: this year should be his main development year for taking a bigger midfield role a year or two later. Think he needs that midfield time as much as possible but will probably be a forward. Him playing forward might allow Parker more midfield time too.

 

[Punts]

If nothing changes forward of the ball and the reliance on buddy week in week out then imo it will be another disappointing year

It’s gotta change as we are the easiest team to defend and so predictable

 

[LordLucifer]

With our current list (i.e. no Shiel, Moore, Gaff, Fyfe, Hogan and Duryea)

B: Rampe - Melican - Grundy
HB: McVeigh - Aliir - Jones
C: Lloyd - Kennedy - Heeney
HF: Papley - Reid - Ronke
F: Hayward - Franklin - McCartin
R: Sinclair - Parker - Hewett
INT: Cunningham - Mills - Florent - Dawson

EMG: Smith - Naismith - Jack - O'Riordan

Looking at that line-up, I have a three concerns.

The defensive unit doesn't look as good as it has been in the past seeing as McVeigh & Grundy are now in the twilight of their careers, good players but they cannot carry the can on their own. Also, relying on Melican & Aliir to hold down the to key posts doesn't fill me with confidence either so finding a gorilla-minding key position player in this off-season may not be a bad idea.

Reid at CHF is an issue to me, when he's fit he's pretty good but his body is made of balsa-wood, he gets injured way too often. If he goes down for long periods, it leaves Franklin to shoulder the complete load. Need to find another big strong marking key forward who has some better durability over the season.

Sinclair in the ruck has really come on over the past two years, if he was to have a long period out injured, I'm not sure the back-ups (Cameron & Naismith) are going to do the job. In the past, you may have been able to offset it due to the megastar quality of the midfield but with Hanners leaving and a few of the others getting long in the tooth, I'm not sure that you can afford to not have a readymade replacement on the list.

 

[bungee]

Yep say Parker 22 games buddy at least 19 Kennedy plays every game, rampe plays every game .

Then say 18-19 from McVeigh jack Grundy and Smith

If we get that from the senior core there won’t be much to complain about

I liked your comments about Hayward and Florent in the Titch thread. Both have genuine talent and could play in a variety of positions. Florent in particular has a hard edge on him that fair sizzles like a hot blade. He goes a lot harder than his pretty boy young face would have you believe. He's also got a good turn of speed. 2019 is going to be a big breakout year for a number of our guys. Just in time to pass the baton. A big year from Reid would make a huge difference. Look at WC without the Darling/Kennedy combo. You need at least two mobile big marking forward targets or defences these days can just intercept or block and rebound.

 

[bungee]

Looking at that line-up, I have a three concerns.

The defensive unit doesn't look as good as it has been in the past seeing as McVeigh & Grundy are now in the twilight of their careers, good players but they cannot carry the can on their own. Also, relying on Melican & Aliir to hold down the to key posts doesn't fill me with confidence either so finding a gorilla-minding key position player in this off-season may not be a bad idea.

Reid at CHF is an issue to me, when he's fit he's pretty good but his body is made of balsa-wood, he gets injured way too often. If he goes down for long periods, it leaves Franklin to shoulder the complete load. Need to find another big strong marking key forward who has some better durability over the season.

Sinclair in the ruck has really come on over the past two years, if he was to have a long period out injured, I'm not sure the back-ups (Cameron & Naismith) are going to do the job. In the past, you may have been able to offset it due to the megastar quality of the midfield but with Hanners leaving and a few of the others getting long in the tooth, I'm not sure that you can afford to not have a readymade replacement on the list.

Naismith's a good ruck. If he's fit it also means Sinclair can play as a tall forward so we have at least two and sometimes three big mobile targets. It just doesn't work with one and a bunch of kids. McCartin will be great when he's ready but he's not a threat yet, nor is Dawson, but those two are a big part of the future along with our other young forwards.

 

[bungee]

Yep, that's pretty much how I see it. Can't wait for 2019...

Last 4-5 years we've had to replace 23 top 22 players plus a similar number of bit players. Many of these were in our 2012 Premiership team, many had huge numbers of games under their belts. Some even played in the 2005 Premiership. That's a lot of list churn and a hell of a lot of experience to recoup (and finals experience). We didn't drop down the ladder for early draft picks and the AFL made it doubly hard with trading bans for a couple of those years.

Here's a lot of lost talent and experience

Laidler
Shaw
Malceski
Richards
Mattner
AJ
McGlynn
Mitchell
Bird
Nankervis
Mumford
Pyke
Tippet
Everitt
Goodes
Jetta
ROK
LRT
Morton
Bolton
White
(plus Rohan & Hanners)

 

[scaryness]

Looking at that line-up, I have a three concerns.

The defensive unit doesn't look as good as it has been in the past seeing as McVeigh & Grundy are now in the twilight of their careers, good players but they cannot carry the can on their own. Also, relying on Melican & Aliir to hold down the to key posts doesn't fill me with confidence either so finding a gorilla-minding key position player in this off-season may not be a bad idea.

Reid at CHF is an issue to me, when he's fit he's pretty good but his body is made of balsa-wood, he gets injured way too often. If he goes down for long periods, it leaves Franklin to shoulder the complete load. Need to find another big strong marking key forward who has some better durability over the season.

Sinclair in the ruck has really come on over the past two years, if he was to have a long period out injured, I'm not sure the back-ups (Cameron & Naismith) are going to do the job. In the past, you may have been able to offset it due to the megastar quality of the midfield but with Hanners leaving and a few of the others getting long in the tooth, I'm not sure that you can afford to not have a readymade replacement on the list.

Not as worried about the backline. Maybe Grundy, but Melican held his own in 2017 and Aliir was dominating in the last dozen games of this season.

Reid is possibly trade bait anyway, but he is no doubt best 22. If he goes down we can go with Sinclair and bring in Naismith or just go back to McCartin being the CHF.

Naismith is serviceable at best, he is just in the wrong era of footy. I don't believe Cameron is any good, NEAFL star and SuperCoach hopeful.

 

[GotTheGoodes]

Not addressed at me, but my reasons for playing and developing McCartin in the seniors are the NEAFL is not a great comp and I want him to play alongside Franklin for as long as possible to learn the trade from the best. Key forwards are invaluable and hard to find and he looks to have the talent to be a great player for us. If Reid and Franklin are fit then McCartin will provide huge headaches for opposition 3rd tall defenders.

I also want Franklin playing closer to goal with Papley and Ronke sniffing around him like a bad smell.

This. Completely agree with you on McCartin mate.

However I think we lose a few massive advantages playing Buddy closer to goal...

We lose his field kicking & delivery while similtaneously losing his long distance goal kicking. This combination is probably the biggest threat to an opposition defence. He can either stretch the defenders in the 50 and open up the fwd 50, then use his beautiful kick to deliver the ball. Or (if they stay at home & rely on midfield defence covering the slack) he can take accurate potshots from 50-60m out.

Plus factoring in his accuracy seems to be higher when he kicks through the ball 45-60m out, putting him closer to goal may reduce his goal kicking accuracy (based on his historical accuracy, I believe).

I think a better option close to goal is a combo of Sinkers/McCartin/Reid.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Not as worried about the backline. Maybe Grundy, but Melican held his own in 2017 and Aliir was dominating in the last dozen games of this season.

Reid is possibly trade bait anyway, but he is no doubt best 22. If he goes down we can go with Sinclair and bring in Naismith or just go back to McCartin being the CHF.

Naismith is serviceable at best, he is just in the wrong era of footy. I don't believe Cameron is any good, NEAFL star and SuperCoach hopeful.

Disagree re Cameron. Think he has upside. Aside from taps he is a good mark, reliable kicj and competes on the ground. Taller than Sinkers and quicker than Sam.

 

[GotTheGoodes]

That's a very good perspective GTG, has real merit and is very convincing.Your way is most likely far better than mine.

I found it really tough to pick a best 22 for next year, and that's without who we get in the draft period. It is very exciting looking at the list if everyone is fit. I do have a bias towards tall marking players so my best 22 might be top heavy in reality.

Great post.

Shucks, thanks mate.

No doubt there will be a time that Bud becomes less mobile & plays a role not too dissimilsr to Goodesy in his final playing days; Closer to goal, taking a key defender matchup. Hopefully not any time soon though!!

To think guys like Mills, Heeney, Rampe, Jones, Hewy, Paps etc are now our core group (taking over from JPK, Macca, Reg, Hanners, Kizza, Smitty) AND we have kids like Florent, Melican, Ronke etc coming through. Well I think we are in a brilliant spot yet again.

Super stoked for next year. Pumped to see Millsy, Naisy & Melican back. Think they will really boost our chances & help strengthen our structures.

I am very bullish about 2019.

 

[Jewelsbon]

To think guys like Mills, Heeney, Rampe, Jones, Hewy, Paps etc are now our core group (taking over from JPK, Macca, Reg, Hanners, Kizza, Smitty) AND we have kids like Florent, Melican, Ronke etc coming through. Well I think we are in a brilliant spot yet again.

Super stoked for next year. Pumped to see Millsy, Naisy & Melican back. Think they will really boost our chances & help strengthen our structures.

I am very bullish about 2019.

As am I GtG, don't get the negativity I've read about us next year to be honest.

 

[Number37]

As am I GtG, don't get the negativity I've read about us next year to be honest.

I will 4th that.
Usually when people say the Swans are approaching the cliff we take a big run up and go for it.

 

[The King!]

As am I GtG, don't get the negativity I've read about us next year to be honest.

I don’t get people think too far one way or the other

Draft and trade period will shape the team ,

One thing we have is some good kids coming through that can’t be argued imo

 

[swansfan51]

I do find these threads a bit strange. People list the exact same players we had this year and talk about how good our depth is, after talking about how we suffered this year due to not having the depth to cover injuries.