gutsroy
Brownlow Medallist
Was mucking around in Spotfire at work today, thought this might be interesting.
Looking at their last three reasonably complete seasons (2016-2018 for Macrae and Neale, 2015, 2017-18 for Fyfe), with pre-/post-bye further down:
Ceiling over period: Fyfe (e.g. Q3 value)
Durability: Neale, Fyfe a distant third.
Consistency: Neale (but to be fair, blokes like Fyfe / Macrae with the huge ceiling will have more spread and as C/VC options, it’s sometimes what you start / bring them in for – situational / side balance)
Looking by year, first prior to end of bye rounds (took that as up to rd 14 for simplicity):
Fyfe stellar and importantly few games missed, Macrae was building to full-premo, Neale Old Faithful:
Post-bye (Note: Freo had the by rd 15 2016, but didn’t want to jerk around with filter settings)
Fyfe missed several games (and also missed entire H2 2016, but partly tactical there, I guess) and his average suffers. Neale surges to the line, Macrae also, but that’s partly general breakout, I guess.
If you’re going Fyfe at all, you probably want to go him in the starting side as in general his output has been better in the first half of seasons.
I prefer high-floor blokes for the starters, others want the ceiling, which is fair enough.
Would personally go Neale and Macrae as the other as he is in general more durable than Fyfe and of late can match Fyfe’s ceiling.
This was just a superficial look, so there might be flaws in the logic which others can spot.
