Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

Crows Draft Hand Tweet



KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[hey shorty]

Anyone concerned we have too many picks? 7 with a points value. We need to start consolidating or transferring to next year somehow.

I think we'll be consolidating.

 

[hey shorty]

KM gets a little bit excited

IMO Phillips IS the best pure midfielder in the draft. But that good ?? Don't see it.

 

[Golumless]

Purely based on watching highlights Thilthorpe looks like a special talent and I’d be extremely happy with him.

But Knightmare on his draft board reckons both JUH and McDonald will be better than the King brothers. I personally don’t understand what elite A+++ attributes McDonald has though? He just seems to be a solid player in all facets.

Being good at everything is certainly a way to get to being an elite player.

The other thing in McDonalds favour is his weight, or lack there of. If you can thrive out of your weight division (especially in a key position), you have a lot going for you to become a special player; that's a big tick in the football IQ category, after all.

 

[hey shorty]

Being good at everything is certainly a way to get to being an elite player.

The other thing in McDonalds favour is his weight, or lack there of. If you can thrive out of your weight division (especially in a key position), you have a lot going for you to become a special player; that's a big tick in the football IQ category, after all.

I don't think his footskills are good enough to be a No1 pick.... But that's splitting hairs a bit.

 

[Hodgy]

Anyone concerned we have too many picks? 7 with a points value. We need to start consolidating or transferring to next year somehow.

I thought the opposite actually. One for Hately and 3 for matching NGA/FS’s only leaves 1,9, 22 & 23 live in the draft. If we do the upgrade being mentioned then we would only have 3, and I would want to use at least 5 this year in a rebuild.

 

[hey shorty]

I thought the opposite actually. One for Hately and 3 for matching NGA/FS’s only leaves 1,9, 22 & 23 live in the draft. If we do the upgrade being mentioned then we would only have 3, and I would want to use at least 5 this year in a rebuild.

Let's say the 4 remaining uncontracted players get cut, how many does that leave us with ??

 

[Hodgy]

IMO Phillips IS the best pure midfielder in the draft. But that good ?? Don't see it.

It’s a bit of projecting obviously as he didn’t play this year, but the previous year as an underager he played with Rowell and in the finals looked pretty comparable despite being younger.

 

[Hodgy]

Let's say the 4 remaining uncontracted players get cut, how many does that leave us with ??

11 spots I believe. Which if list sizes are reduced by 2 and we add Hately and all 3 NGA/FS’s then we would have 5 live picks.
there’s still a bit to play out tomorrow I think, with Kelly and/or Gallucci attracting some interest, and some kind of pick swap pretty likely.

 

[Crow Envy]

11 spots I believe. Which if list sizes are reduced by 2 and we add Hately and all 3 NGA/FS’s then we would have 5 live picks.
there’s still a bit to play out tomorrow I think, with Kelly and/or Gallucci attracting some interest, and some kind of pick swap pretty likely.

Who says Kelly is attracting interest?

 

[BACCS]

A little bit odd for Wright to bring up that the Crows may not bid on JUH as part of the pick swap with the Bulldogs, almost trying to say it was collusion and then quickly saying he didn’t mean to insinuate that. What if we have told the Bulldogs we don’t rate him as the number one pick and have our eyes on Hollands, MacDonald or Thilthorpe? That might be why they’re dealing with us over other clubs.

Can someone please tell me what combo of picks (outside of 20) we can give to the Bulldogs to equal or exceed pick 14 value?

 

[Hodgy]

Who says Kelly is attracting interest?

I read it in a couple of spots earlier in the week, but you would have to think anything happening player wise would be unlikely at this stage. However, one thing Adelaide do well is keep things quiet, so it wouldn’t be a total shock.
It would be great if we did manage to move some players tomorrow, especially anyone likely to go as FA’s next year, but being proactive is not exactly how we operate.

 

[Hodgy]

A little bit odd for Wright to bring up that the Crows may not bid on JUH as part of the pick swap with the Bulldogs, almost trying to say it was collusion and then quickly saying he didn’t mean to insinuate that. What if we have told the Bulldogs we don’t rate him as the number one pick and have our eyes on Hollands, MacDonald or Thilthorpe? That might be why they’re dealing with us over other clubs.

Can someone please tell me what combo of picks (outside of 20) we can give to the Bulldogs to equal or exceed pick 14 value?

Picks 22 & 40 have a points value of 1274 as compared to pick 14 having 1161. About 10% premium as well as any nudge nudge deal.
this is why I like a future 3rd for Hately. Surely GWS would prefer that anyway.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

It feels incredibly depressing seeing Essendon with such a strong hand in the draft compared to what we had going into the draft.

They still have to pay overs for Dunkley...

 

[1990crow]

Picks 22 & 40 have a points value of 1274 as compared to pick 14 having 1161. About 10% premium as well as any nudge nudge deal.
this is why I like a future 3rd for Hately. Surely GWS would prefer that anyway.

Our future 3rd will be around 40 anyway

 

[Carmo]

They still have to pay overs for Dunkley...

And theyve lost the equivalent of our Himmelberg and Hamill/Brodie Smith to get it. With their equivalent of Stengle (Fantasia) likely to leave as well. They weren't exactly brilliant last year and will be worse next year.

 

[Crow till I die]

And theyve lost the equivalent of our Himmelberg and Hamill/Brodie Smith to get it. With their equivalent of Stengle (Fantasia) likely to leave as well. They weren't exactly brilliant last year and will be worse next year.

you forgot McKernan..don't forget McKernan

 

[Scorpus]

It feels incredibly depressing seeing Essendon with such a strong hand in the draft compared to what we had going into the draft.

Don't worry, they have Adrian at the helm to blow more first round picks

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Picks 22 & 40 have a points value of 1274 as compared to pick 14 having 1161. About 10% premium as well as any nudge nudge deal.
this is why I like a future 3rd for Hately. Surely GWS would prefer that anyway.

If we get Pick 14 from the Dogs, then a future 3rd to GWS, or a slight downgrade of one of our picks (9 or 14) to one of GWS’ 1st rounders they’re about to get from Geelong, should suffice for Hately.


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[Kane Johnson]

 

[CrowCro]

I think Gooch gets a new deal, even if only for 1 year, because
1. It's the right thing to do (OK, soft, but there are other reasons too)
2. The way his career has been interrupted by injury + no chance to show he's got the message that Godden delivered etc, he still has potential upside even if it's a risk.
3. As a trade, we get almost nothing for him (and as a DFA precisely nothing). Even unproven / uncertain, he's worth more to us than anyone else would pay (and fair enough).
4. We don't need his list spot, there are other options.

The guy can’t play, cut him loose

 

[1990crow]

McDonald.
Himmelburg. Fogarty.

That's the forward line for 2022 to 2030.

 

[Thetrader15]

At this point id rather we use 22/23 in a pick swap for the pies first next year instead of the bullies pick 14 this year..

I think with the absolute shambles the pies are in at the moment that they could really struggle next year amd not make the 8.

Even still.. if they did come 8th again next year.. that pick will be a lot more valuable than pick 14 this year.

Edit: then again.. we could get 14 off the bullies for 22 and 40... thus keeping 23..

And then trade 14 to the pies for their 2021 first + something else in our favour...

Agree, I think it's a 3 way deal, where dogs get 22 and 23, we get pies 2021/1 and maybe a 2021/3 and lues get 14.

This relies on us taking Hately in the PSD though and keeping 40

 

[GrommoT]

A little bit odd for Wright to bring up that the Crows may not bid on JUH as part of the pick swap with the Bulldogs, almost trying to say it was collusion and then quickly saying he didn’t mean to insinuate that. What if we have told the Bulldogs we don’t rate him as the number one pick and have our eyes on Hollands, MacDonald or Thilthorpe? That might be why they’re dealing with us over other clubs.

Can someone please tell me what combo of picks (outside of 20) we can give to the Bulldogs to equal or exceed pick 14 value?

If Hamish thinks it's worth it, we could maybe go for whatever pick WB get for Dunkley (if that goes ahead) as that pick is very likely getting eaten up by a bid for JUH even if it's not by us.

Let's say WB get pick 7 for Dunkley so they have picks(&points):
- 7(1644) 14(1161) 41(412) 54(220)

We currently have
- 22(845) 23(815) 40(429) 56(194) 66(80)

There are several scenarios that could play out.

(A) We trade 22, 23 & 56 for 7 with understanding not to bid on JUH.

Port's had to pay something like 45% extra in points for Freo's 6 in 2018 so normally we might have to throw in another 650 points worth of picks to get pick 7. Us not bidding at 1 saves WB 386 points so let's say our pick 56 gets it done (or maybe we need to throw in a 2021 r3 pick).

What's likely to happen then is North bid on JUH at 2, WB needs to match 2014 points so 14 & 22 are gone and 23 loses 8 points and probably remains as pick 23.

WB ends up with 23, 41, 54, 56

(B) Suppose WB reject us, GWS gets 13(1212) & 15(1112) from Cats and decide to trade those for WB's 7 (this is probably one of the worst cases for us if we're keen to get WB's 7).

Again using the 45% extra premium, 13 & 15 is a likely price for upgrading to 7.

So this time we bid on JUH at 1, WB needs to match 2400 points so 13 & 15 are gone and 14 loses 76 points and drops to pick 15.

WB ends up with 15, 41, 54

(C) Suppose WB rejects us and just sticks to what picks they have.

We bid at 1 and WB's picks 7 is gone and 14 loses 756 points to become pick 42.

WB ends up with 41, 42, 54


So it looks like we could get gazumped by GWS if things pan out as per (B) but if GWS don't do that, we could possibly get 7 from WB if we like that idea.

 

[rabidcrow]

If we had drafted Gooch with pick 60, he would have been gone already. he has shown nothing to say he looks anywhere close to the level really and combined with the injuries just doesn’t stack up. It feels like a bloody minded refusal to accept that another high pick was wasted, that is keeping him at this stage.

as for list spots, well I would be taking someone like Phoenix Spicer in his spot, at least then there is a chance of seeing an AFL standard player.

Have to disagree with him not show MF he can be at the level. 2018 he was starting to show really good development - I think last game kicked 4-5 goals from 20 touches if I recall and hasn’t had a crack at it since. Would keep him in front of MacKay Poholke and Crocker


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[Mutineer]

I thought the opposite actually. One for Hately and 3 for matching NGA/FS’s only leaves 1,9, 22 & 23 live in the draft. If we do the upgrade being mentioned then we would only have 3, and I would want to use at least 5 this year in a rebuild.

There might be a DFA we have some interest in again and we may also be monitoring the players yet to be re-contracted and possibly if they then get delisted?