Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

Crows Draft Hand Tweet



KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[rabidcrow]

I really like Baldwin as a talent, he's an elite mark of the ball (something we lack inside 50), but those injuries really scare me

I'd very happily take a punt at 40

I would punt 23 for him. Worth the risk imo


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[WeedsMullet84]

Hypothetical....Bombers offer us picks 7 & 8 for our No 1 pick, in order to get McDonald.....would we entertain it?


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No. I simply would not trade out of Pick 1 unless it was into the top 4

JUH
Hollands
Thilthorpe
McDonald

I’d be happy with any one of those, but anything outside of these guys is just getting more and more speculative. DGB, Phillips & Campbell would be just outside that top 4 for me, but still not in that same bracket



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[Mismatched]

How about no.

We came last, we take pick 1. Especially if we can get McDonald.

Agreed, why is everyone keen on trading out our pick 1?

 

[slice]

There is absolutely zero chance of this happening but it's fun to think about.

If Essendon really really want McDonald:

• Trade 1, 22 and 23 to Essendon for 6, 7, 8 on the proviso that they also bid for JUH; and
• Trade 6, 9 to Sydney for 3 and the promise that we don't bid for Campbell at 3, 7 or 8.

If nobody bids on Campbell in the Top 6, Sydney get a huge win as they'd get three elite talents in.

Draft:

1. JUH - Dogs (Ess Bid)
2. McDonald - Essendon
3. Thilthorpe - North
4. Hollands - Adelaide
5. DGB - Hawthorn
6. Phillips - GC
7. ? - Sydney
8. ? - Adelaide
9. ? - Adelaide
10. ? - Sydney
11. Campbell - Sydney (GWS Bid)

Even if Hawthorn of GC bid for Campbell early, Syd would only lose their next pick meaning they still get 2 elite talents in.

 

[Mutineer]

 

[Peter Doherty]

Would GC have any interest in trading 5 for 9? What would they want thrown in?

There is still a chance we can land Hollands and Thilthorpe.

 

[Dangerousfield]

Absolutely not

Would have to be 6, 7, 8 and their 2021 first and we can send a 2nd rounder back to them

Not even worth discussing, Dodo only does winning deals, not reaming deals!

If we don't bid on JUH at pick 1 we are seriously lacking in the gonad dept. We are being denied our rightful pick of the best player in the draft by the VFL's NGA rort. Bid at pick 1, make the Dogs pay wiping them out of this draft, kick PR sand in the AFL's face.

Imagine if we took McDonald with pick 1 and he wanted to go back to WA after two years, I don't want the angst of go home ever AGAIN!

Target GC pick 5, they want future picks

 

[Sidthehat]

If we get Hollands, reckon Essendon will load the picks van up to North to get McDonald at 2.

Could turn into:
WB - JUH
Crows - Hollands
Essendon - McDonald
Sydney - Phillips
Hawthorn - DGB
Gold Coast -
North -
North -
Essendon -
Crows -

Wonder then if we could give 9 and 22 or 23 to GC for 5 as they need another 500 or so points to get Davies and Jeffrey in assuming they go between 12-22 as projected.

 

[FAITH]

Would like to get out hands on pick 4 from Hawthorn. I wonder if 9,23 and 40 for 4 and 49 would work

No chance.

 

[Tex Danger]

What if we trade 1,22,23 to Essendon for 6,7,8.

Gives us 4 picks in a row in the top 10 and hope tilly slides to 6?

Points 4660 Adelaide Essendon 4946

I think we need a top 3 pick, id only trade 1 if we stayed in there

so if we then turned one of 6/7/8 into 3 somehow without ruining the value of the trade then id do it but only then (and thats only if our recruiters think that theres not much in it between the 2 talls and hollands)

1, 22, 23 or 6, 7, 8
2 of 6/7/8/9 + ? melb future 2nd for for 3 & sydney 2021 1st

take 3, 7, 8 to the draft, but also add syd 1st next year in addition to our own.

syd benefit from getting 2 picks in before their academy player instead of 1 (they have 6, we promise not to bid at 7/8 before their 2nd pick 9 so unless a bid comes at 4 or 5 they're safe)

 

[rabidcrow]

There is absolutely zero chance of this happening but it's fun to think about.

If Essendon really really want McDonald:

• Trade 1, 22 and 23 to Essendon for 6, 7, 8 on the proviso that they also bid for JUH; and
• Trade 6, 9 to Sydney for 3 and the promise that we don't bid for Campbell at 3, 7 or 8.

If nobody bids on Campbell in the Top 6, Sydney get a huge win as they'd get three elite talents in.

Draft:

1. JUH - Dogs (Ess Bid)
2. McDonald - Essendon
3. Thilthorpe - North
4. Hollands - Adelaide
5. DGB - Hawthorn
6. Phillips - GC
7. ? - Sydney
8. ? - Adelaide
9. ? - Adelaide
10. ? - Sydney
11. Campbell - Sydney (GWS Bid)

Even if Hawthorn of GC bid for Campbell early, Syd would only lose their next pick meaning they still get 2 elite talents in.

Doesn’t work for us - we need to take TT or McDonald. You don’t not take a key forward when you get the chance


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[Scorpus]

So our current list position is:

Out: Atkins, Crouch, Gibbs, Hartigan, Knight, Taylor (rookie), Wilson (rookie)
In: Hately (pending PSD)

So -2 on the rookie list, and -4 on the main list

I can see us using the full list complement available to us, of 38 senior and 4 rookie players

Drafts:
Can see us taking 4 picks. Picks 1 and 9, plus one of the picks in the 20s (the other traded into 2021), and a later pick (possibly 40 depending on bids)

I can see us taking all three NGA or F/S players in the main draft, or potentially two in the main and one in the rookie. If all three go in the main draft, I'd expect us to take an additional rookie pick

Delistings:
After the draft this will leave us either +2 or +3 on the main list, and +1 on the rookie list

For that reason I expect all remaining out of contract players to be delisted, with only one senior spot as maybe up for grabs. If that spot is available, it will without a shred of doubt be given to David Mackay

14

David Mackay

Age

36

Ht

181cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.7

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

3.2

5star

MG

315.4

4star

D

16.5

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

9.5

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

2.0

3star

MG

265.5

4star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

5.8

4star

M

4.6

5star

T

1.2

3star

 

[rabidcrow]

If we get Hollands, reckon Essendon will load the picks van up to North to get McDonald at 2.

Could turn into:
WB - JUH
Crows - Hollands
Essendon - McDonald
Sydney - Phillips
Hawthorn - DGB
Gold Coast -
North -
North -
Essendon -
Crows -

Wonder then if we could give 9 and 22 or 23 to GC for 5 as they need another 500 or so points to get Davies and Jeffrey in assuming they go between 12-22 as projected.

Davies and Jeffrey are pre list options for GC - no need for points

No way North let McDonald go if we don’t pick him


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[Tex Danger]

There is absolutely zero chance of this happening but it's fun to think about.

If Essendon really really want McDonald:

• Trade 1, 22 and 23 to Essendon for 6, 7, 8 on the proviso that they also bid for JUH; and
• Trade 6, 9 to Sydney for 3 and the promise that we don't bid for Campbell at 3, 7 or 8.

If nobody bids on Campbell in the Top 6, Sydney get a huge win as they'd get three elite talents in.

Draft:

1. JUH - Dogs (Ess Bid)
2. McDonald - Essendon
3. Thilthorpe - North
4. Hollands - Adelaide
5. DGB - Hawthorn
6. Phillips - GC
7. ? - Sydney
8. ? - Adelaide
9. ? - Adelaide
10. ? - Sydney
11. Campbell - Sydney (GWS Bid)

Even if Hawthorn of GC bid for Campbell early, Syd would only lose their next pick meaning they still get 2 elite talents in.

i just posted similar but 6+9 is too much for 3 surely.
I proposed adding sys 2021 1st rounder to that and paying whatever steaknives are needed to get that done

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

No. I simply would not trade out of Pick 1 unless it was into the top 4

JUH
Hollands
Thilthorpe
McDonald

I’d be happy with any one of those, but anything outside of these guys is just getting more and more speculative. DGB, Phillips & Campbell would be just outside that top 4 for me, but still not in that same bracket



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That's effectively a top 3 pick given the Bullies will match.

 

[1991firstgamer]

If Hately doesn't come in the PSD and we botch picks 1 , 9, 22 and 23 Reid and Kelly need to go.

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[Samcro24]

If Hately doesn't come in the PSD and we botch picks 1 , 9, 22 and 23 Reid and Kelly need to go.

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Controversial opinion

 

[kulak]

Correct, I will disagree with you.

Has an average accuracy for goal (all shots) of 46% which isn't too far from the mean, if not dead on average for an AFL footballer, and will likely improve as he settles to the level. After all, some of them just looked like inexperience/rushing. (Source: https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/shot-charting, though you'll have to select Himmelberg from the drop-down menu).

Nice find.

 

[slice]

Doesn’t work for us - we need to take TT or McDonald. You don’t not take a key forward when you get the chance


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That's bullshit. There's like 15 years worth of evidence to suggest highly touted KPFs taken with early picks rarely reach their potential.

i just posted similar but 6+9 is too much for 3 surely.
I proposed adding sys 2021 1st rounder to that and paying whatever steaknives are needed to get that done

Yeah, whatever upgrade/downgrade/swaps to make it balance but the skeleton is there.

 

[Draft Bored]

I would trade pick 1 for pick 2 assuming we want Hollands or Thilthorpe over McDonald.

The shiny steak knives would be a nice bonus assuming North do infact want McDonald.

 

[Sidthehat]

Davies and Jeffrey are pre list options for GC - no need for points

No way North let McDonald go if we don’t pick him


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Ah, forgot that. They dont have to match do they.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I would trade pick 1 for pick 2 assuming we want Hollands or Thilthorpe over McDonald.

The shiny steak knives would be a nice bonus assuming North do infact want McDonald.

Or we just take McDonald, which is equally as likely at this point in time...

 

[CrowCro]

3 early picks? 1,9,23,24.

9 and 24 to Essendon for 6. They have 6, 7 and 8 . Doing this swap with us they lose essentially nothing as they then have 7,8 and 9

 

[Danger_zone]

9 and 24 to Essendon for 6. They have 6, 7 and 8 . Doing this swap with us they lose essentially nothing as they then have 7,8 and 9

That one does seem reasonable. If Thilt is there at 6, I’d do it.

 

[ams4crows]

We won't be doing any of these pick swaps unless a player we want drops to a getable pick, we aren't doing it just for the sake of it