Player Watch 2021 AFL National Draft - NOT FOR TRADE DISCUSSION

[Strapping Young Lad]

Let’s stick with a basic rule for this thread, that it’s for draft watch and discussion only.

It’s not for trade hypotheticals, who you think needs to be delisted or traded, how many games you think we will win, some other team will win, how many picks you want in the 1st round or discussion of current HFC players.

It’s about youngsters who are eligible for the draft in 2021.


Key dates to look out for:

• NAB AFL Draft Combine: TBC
• NAB AFL Draft: Wednesday November 24 - Thursday November 25
• NAB AFL Pre-season and Rookie Drafts: Friday November 26

 

[Steven Tyler]

Could be worse.

Geelong's entire playing list is half-back-flankers.

Essendon's entire club is full of half-back-flankers.

Nice rhyming slag there!

 

[Adrian Dodoro]

im not saying we should pick Gibcus, just that people shouldn't throw a tantrum if we do... like last year with DGB over Hollands

The thing is, DGB was rated higher than Hollands by most recruiters so that was fair. But in this case I don't see Gibcus being rated higher than Hobbs, Ward, Rachele, Erasmus - I think one of the reasons why he is rated so highly is due to the needs of the clubs in the bottom of the ladder.

Disclaimer: I have so much less idea this year what recruiters think because I think draft boards are very murky and inconsistent this year because of the lack of games etc.

 

[Adrian Dodoro]

If anyone wants to sus how even thee draft pool is/how split recruiters and scouts are, I suggest comparing these rankings.

ESPN is Knightmare/Chriss Doerre
AFL is Cal Twomey
Both very reliable and knowledgable and talk to recruiters at clubs all year round for a living.

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Two father-sons in the top 3

ESPN.com.au's expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of September, with Josh Daicos, Jason Horne-Francis, and Sam Darcy forming a clear 'top three', but there's movement further down the list.

www.espn.com.au

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' August ranking

Draft guru Cal Twomey has dropped his August rankings of the 2021 draft pool

www.afl.com.au

 

[Adrian Dodoro]

If our first rounder came to being between Gibcus or Andrew, who would people take?

Andrew in a heartbeat. Plays 2 positions genuinely. Taller and still leaner below his knees.

 

[Adrian Dodoro]

- Ward: one of the best kicks in the draft, two way running midfielder with a huge tank, hard worker. Would add class to the midfield and is probably the best match with the players we currently have.

Sounds a bit like coach

 

[bigbuddyboy]

I don’t watch juniors and rely only on what draft watchers say. I get the that Ward is more your ‘death by a thousand cuts’ compared to a high impact player capable of putting teams to the sword in short bursts. Is that fair/correct?

I feel like the latter is more of what our team needs and is why, based only on why I’ve read, I’m not so keen on Ward over players like Erasmus, Andrew, Rachelle etc.

the hawthorn connection is nice, though.

 

[2OLD 2SLOW]

I don’t watch juniors and rely only on what draft watchers say. I get the that Ward is more your ‘death by a thousand cuts’ compared to a high impact player capable of putting teams to the sword in short bursts. Is that fair/correct?

I feel like the latter is more of what our team needs and is why, based only on why I’ve read, I’m not so keen on Ward over players like Erasmus, Andrew, Rachelle etc.

the hawthorn connection is nice, though.

Your take seems about right to me. Ward actually reminds me of a Scott West, though probably a bit more outside.
I'm hoping for a more dynamic player, but I'll trust Mackenzie and the boys to get it right - quality is king, I guess.

 

[2OLD 2SLOW]

Was going to post this on the Brocky thread, but seems more relevant here ...

Last year I listened to a podcast - Duff and Quarters - just for info on WA draft prospects.
They had some young, local guy (sounded about 20) who spoke very knowledgably about a number of prospects.
Still searching for the guy's name, but he obviously had great contacts in the west (a la Twomey), but he also went to the games and seemed to have an insightful take on players (not so a la Twomey IMO).
Anyways, he was all over DGB, Isiah Winder and others - but particularly Brocky. Rated him above Winder and said West Coast were very keen on him. Raved about his upside and said the production side of his game had improved a lot in his draft year (which was impressive given the distances he had to travel to play/train). On the back of this wrap, I watched a few games prior to the draft, and Brocky was super impressive (BOG in one big game, and just moments of sheer quality above every other player).

Needless to say, I'm wrapped we've got this kid, and the fact we had our eyes on him suggests our own scouts in the west are not so shabby.
I wonder if we're eying another bargain in the west? Rhett Bazzo? Erasmus? Or could we rate Matt Johnson higher than others?

 

[KermitJagger]

Your take seems about right to me. Ward actually reminds me of a Scott West, though probably a bit more outside.
I'm hoping for a more dynamic player, but I'll trust Mackenzie and the boys to get it right - quality is king, I guess.

I guess if it comes down to a choice between the better accumulating player, and a worse impact player you take the better one. Can't get fixated on whatever qualities are flavour of the month over genuine substance.

 

[TDS7]

I don’t watch juniors and rely only on what draft watchers say. I get the that Ward is more your ‘death by a thousand cuts’ compared to a high impact player capable of putting teams to the sword in short bursts. Is that fair/correct?

I feel like the latter is more of what our team needs and is why, based only on why I’ve read, I’m not so keen on Ward over players like Erasmus, Andrew, Rachelle etc.

the hawthorn connection is nice, though.

I'd say his style is a bit more impactful than you think. He gets a ton of score involvements (6.2 per game, 5th in the NAB league) and he is often in the disposal chain multiple times before being the entry kick in forward. He didn't hit the scoreboard as much as you would have liked to see in the NAB league, but his Vic Metro games showed he can run through and kick them if given the right service. He is a player that benefits from the Worpels, Titchs and JOMs of the world feeding him the ball, but often presented as the go-to guy for both Northern Knights and Vic Metro.

I think our biggest weakness going forward will be the link between our streaming half-backs and the entry inside 50, which we saw this year were often ineffective bombs that don't help our lead-up targets at all. When he does swing forward, he looks composed and calm with his decision-making and goal sense even if he doesn't get down there often.

No, he isn't going to kick 2 goals a game but his disposals are still valuable and damaging. I know this article has been brought up a lot because of his hawk's connection, but look at his contested possessions, score involvements, and clearance numbers this season. He is just as damaging as Erasmus or Hobbs while providing more class on the outside.

 

[hfc70]

Andrew in a heartbeat. Plays 2 positions genuinely. Taller and still leaner below his knees.

When Andrew puts on muscle - he’s going to be an absolute weapon

 

[TylerDurden]

I'd say his style is a bit more impactful than you think. He gets a ton of score involvements (6.2 per game, 5th in the NAB league) and he is often in the disposal chain multiple times before being the entry kick in forward. He didn't hit the scoreboard as much as you would have liked to see in the NAB league, but his Vic Metro games showed he can run through and kick them if given the right service. He is a player that benefits from the Worpels, Titchs and JOMs of the world feeding him the ball, but often presented as the go-to guy for both Northern Knights and Vic Metro.

I think our biggest weakness going forward will be the link between our streaming half-backs and the entry inside 50, which we saw this year were often ineffective bombs that don't help our lead-up targets at all. When he does swing forward, he looks composed and calm with his decision-making and goal sense even if he doesn't get down there often.

No, he isn't going to kick 2 goals a game but his disposals are still valuable and damaging. I know this article has been brought up a lot because of his hawk's connection, but look at his contested possessions, score involvements, and clearance numbers this season. He is just as damaging as Erasmus or Hobbs while providing more class on the outside.

I'm sold.

 

[bigbuddyboy]

Ch

I'd say his style is a bit more impactful than you think. He gets a ton of score involvements (6.2 per game, 5th in the NAB league) and he is often in the disposal chain multiple times before being the entry kick in forward. He didn't hit the scoreboard as much as you would have liked to see in the NAB league, but his Vic Metro games showed he can run through and kick them if given the right service. He is a player that benefits from the Worpels, Titchs and JOMs of the world feeding him the ball, but often presented as the go-to guy for both Northern Knights and Vic Metro.

I think our biggest weakness going forward will be the link between our streaming half-backs and the entry inside 50, which we saw this year were often ineffective bombs that don't help our lead-up targets at all. When he does swing forward, he looks composed and calm with his decision-making and goal sense even if he doesn't get down there often.

No, he isn't going to kick 2 goals a game but his disposals are still valuable and damaging. I know this article has been brought up a lot because of his hawk's connection, but look at his contested possessions, score involvements, and clearance numbers this season. He is just as damaging as Erasmus or Hobbs while providing more class on the outside.

cheers for that - great insightful post.

 

[chopflop]

If anyone wants to sus how even thee draft pool is/how split recruiters and scouts are, I suggest comparing these rankings.

ESPN is Knightmare/Chriss Doerre
AFL is Cal Twomey
Both very reliable and knowledgable and talk to recruiters at clubs all year round for a living.

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Two father-sons in the top 3

ESPN.com.au's expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of September, with Josh Daicos, Jason Horne-Francis, and Sam Darcy forming a clear 'top three', but there's movement further down the list.

www.espn.com.au

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' August ranking

Draft guru Cal Twomey has dropped his August rankings of the 2021 draft pool

www.afl.com.au

Sorry but who does knightmare talk to? My understanding from his own posts is that he is out on his own and doesn't speak to recruiters or use any inside Intel to form his opinion. Basically the opposite of twomey. Twomey was the first one in the media to report on Darcy's rise into first round and then top 3 because that was all recruiters. All the other draft watchers were late to that party. For anything noise beyond opinions and personal evaluations (which are great reading sometimes) then twomey is the only one to go to.

Ps. Avery barely a chance to be drafted. Is a 19yo and wasn't picked up last year or MSD from memory.

Alleer is a nice prospect but nowhere near top 10.

Uwland is a GCA player who hasn't been mentioned in the top 40 of any draft watcher aside from KM and hasn't been discussed by twomey on his podcast which is a good sign he isn't rated.

 

[Adrian Dodoro]

Sorry but who does knightmare talk to? My understanding from his own posts is that he is out on his own and doesn't speak to recruiters or use any inside Intel to form his opinion. Basically the opposite of twomey. Twomey was the first one in the media to report on Darcy's rise into first round and then top 3 because that was all recruiters. All the other draft watchers were late to that party. For anything noise beyond opinions and personal evaluations (which are great reading sometimes) then twomey is the only one to go to

I was under the impression Knightmare talked to clubs, atleast scouts that are on club payroll. I totally agree with you that Twomey's lists almost always represent how the draft will occur.

That being said Knightmare knows what he is doing and I give his rankings weight

 

[chopflop]

I was under the impression Knightmare talked to clubs, atleast scouts that are on club payroll. I totally agree with you that Twomey's lists almost always represent how the draft will occur.

That being said Knightmare knows what he is doing and I give his rankings weight

Sometimes. No he doesn't talk to clubs... ask him. But he has an obsession with being a "disruptor" of the industry. The Uber of recruiting you might say. Hence, he picks out some speculative players and puts them at the top of his rankings. Then goes on about how he is different to the herd. It's all part of his schtick and getting more views on his content imo. You will always get a unique take with knightmare

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Good mail that one of the key recruiters at a club in the top 5 of the draft sees the mids in this order.

Daicos
JHF
Finn
Ward
Hobbs
Rachele
Erasmus
Sonsie

Then you’ve got to account for where Andrew, Amiss, Gibcus might fall in amongst those picks.

 

[TDS7]

Good mail that one of the key recruiters at a club in the top 5 of the draft sees the mids in this order.

Daicos
JHF
Finn
Ward
Hobbs
Rachele
Erasmus
Sonsie

Then you’ve got to account for where Andrew, Amiss, Gibcus might fall in amongst those picks.

I am worried now that it's gonna go:

North - JHF
Giants - Callaghan
Gold Coast - Gibcus
Crows - Ward

Leaving us without my darling Ward. Hell, gold coast might even take him if they don't rate Gibcus. Ah well, Erasmus or Rachele is fine I guess.

 

[theiaofseed]

I am worried now that it's gonna go:

North - JHF
Giants - Callaghan
Gold Coast - Gibcus
Crows - Ward

Leaving us without my darling Ward. Hell, gold coast might even take him if they don't rate Gibcus. Ah well, Erasmus or Rachele is fine I guess.

If that happens which I doubt we will take BIG MAC or Hobbs.

 

[theiaofseed]

Good mail that one of the key recruiters at a club in the top 5 of the draft sees the mids in this order.

Daicos
JHF
Finn
Ward
Hobbs
Rachele
Erasmus
Sonsie

Then you’ve got to account for where Andrew, Amiss, Gibcus might fall in amongst those picks.

Sounds about rightish, Sinn not in the top 15.

 

[Braidz]

Could be worse.

Geelong's entire playing list is half-back-flankers.

Essendon's entire club is full of half-baked-w*nkers.

fixed it for you

 

[Blackhawk42]

I'm starting to think there is a chance that Ward is snapped up before our first selection.

 

[Big Hotdog]

Good mail that one of the key recruiters at a club in the top 5 of the draft sees the mids in this order.

Daicos
JHF
Finn
Ward
Hobbs
Rachele
Erasmus
Sonsie

Then you’ve got to account for where Andrew, Amiss, Gibcus might fall in amongst those picks.

Does the list go any further?
Sinn and Chesser for example?

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Will Roos bid on Horne-Francis?

Classic clueless Ralph