AFL 2021 AFL Round 3

[SirBont]

Last week was also a must win game for Carlton #thatwentwell

not really yes and no it was always gonna be a tough game agaisn't the pies both sides seem to match well no matter what the ladder is just the rivalry of the two clubs couldn't see why so many punters where on the Blues last week

 

[SirBont]

I saw their kick mark style back against the dogs and if it wasn't for cripps kicking into the man of the mark they probably should of won. however the dogs did play better and would of deserved to win

But i just think at home, saturday night ,big crowd, they'll be on their game and really hard to beat. Port are a strong side no doubt but just think the eagles will put on a show.

yeh if he kicked that goal it could have been such a different story we got outplayed in that third term as soon as he missed that I felt the game could swing here

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Brisbane/Collingwood @7.00 sb

Not completely confident in Collingwood, a week ago I thought they were a rabble, however I will back them shutting Brisbanes offence down in the second half.


On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[kicksome]

Think the line for Geel v Hawks is pretty high, 22.5 points. No Danger, games are usually tight even with our ordinary side.

In all honesty cats should be 0-2
Lost to last year's wooden spooner's and got lucky with a holding the ball non decision last week.
Geelong aren't much chop. So it should be a tight game imo

 

[kicksome]

points bet have a deal Tim English & Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

to combine for 3+ goals. Paying $5
so far this year they have combined for 3 and 2.
max bet $25, im having a go

 

[Islanda22]

Maybe Ricciardi for goals this week.

Think the line for Geel v Hawks is pretty high, 22.5 points. No Danger, games are usually tight even with our ordinary side.

May and Lever have been great

 

[Islanda22]

St Kilda by 10+ Goals against a depleted Essendon anyone? Line is currently 21.5!!!

 

[burge13]

St Kilda by 10+ Goals against a depleted Essendon anyone? Line is currently 21.5!!!

Did you see their field kicking last week?!

Even if King gets 10m space on a perfect lead, 30m out directly in front, Brad Hill is still kicking it out on the full to ruin it

 

[ASP3X]

Brisbane/Collingwood @7.00 sb

Not completely confident in Collingwood, a week ago I thought they were a rabble, however I will back them shutting Brisbanes offence down in the second half.


On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

What is the bet @ $7.00?

 

[Robo87]

What is the bet @ $7.00?

Team to Win first half and team to win second half, i would guess.

 

[sassy foods]

Woah, just as I checked back, I've been reverted back to $1.90 lines on NEDS because I've had a winning start to the year.
I haven't even taken them for that much! Time to switch to Ladbrokes for a bit....

This is why I hate the corporates so much. The only problem is Betfair does not have all the markets and it's sometimes hard to get your bets matched on the exchange.

lads are shockers too. Banned as soon as I started winning on props. Just the most unethical organisations in the country

 

[NYRB]

Bet365 and BlueBet banned for me.

BETDAQ, Matchbook, Pinnacle, SkyBet can't use if you are not based in the UK.

 

[SirBont]

So any opinions on lions/pies game? Really hard game to predict.

Brisbane will step up too the plate and win here

 

[burge13]

I tipped Collingwood but given I'm 3rd bottom in work tips you can lock in a Lions win

 

[juss]

So any opinions on lions/pies game? Really hard game to predict.

Seems most of us are either on the Lions or the Lions+line, I'm on the +2.5 myself as it was the same price as H2H when I backed it.

A close loss, testing circumstances, I think the Lions will rally.

 

[iluvparis]

Seems most of us are either on the Lions or the Lions+line, I'm on the +2.5 myself as it was the same price as H2H when I backed it.

A close loss, testing circumstances, I think the Lions will rally.

People underrating the Pies for a second straight week. They are a bet again.

 

[juss]

People underrating the Pies for a second straight week. They are a bet again.

Maybe, remains to be seen how this effects the Lions, personally I think it galvanises them. Either way I can't get near the Pies as favourites at their price.

 

[Islanda22]

Wish they had hit out markets

Grundy will get 50+

 

[jikost]

Yeah whatever Grundy's fantasy line is this week, the overs look a nice bet. Also taking Collingwood/Grundy 20+/Grundy AGS @ $12.48 lads

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet Spread Betting Collingwood v Brisbane:

Match Largest Lead: 36 to 40 points
Match Cross Goals ( This is a bet on the total number of goals scored by Collingwood multiplied by the total number of goals scored by Brisbane Lions. ) : 139 - 159





I like the look of 36 or less points lead throughout the match. Don't think there are too much between the two sides on paper.

Match Cross Goals: I like OVER 159, can see Collingwood and Brisbane both snagging 13 goals or more each. 13 x 13= 169 which would cover the over .

 

[iluvparis]

PointsBet Spread Betting Collingwood v Brisbane:

Match Largest Lead: 36 to 40 points
Match Cross Goals ( This is a bet on the total number of goals scored by Collingwood multiplied by the total number of goals scored by Brisbane Lions. ) : 139 - 159





I like the look of 36 or less points lead throughout the match. Don't think there are too much between the two sides on paper.

Match Cross Goals: I like OVER 159, can see Collingwood and Brisbane both snagging 13 goals or more each. 13 x 13= 169 which would cover the over .

Geez - spread betting on cross goals sounds like a one way trip to the poor house.

 

[NYRB]

Geez - spread betting on cross goals sounds like a one way trip to the poor house.

If you can find your niche, I think its a way to profit.

If one team performs poorly, and you bet on unders you profit.

if its an end to end game and you bet on overs, you can profit too.

PointsBet rules on Cross Goals:

" This is a bet on the total number of goals scored by Collingwood multiplied by the total number of goals scored by Brisbane Lions. E.g. A bet on OVER 200 means that if the number of goals scored by Collingwood multiplied by the number of goals scored by Brisbane Lions is 250, you win 50 times your stake (i.e. a $10 stake will win $500). Max win/loss is capped at 150 times your stake. Bet includes Extra Time. "


Doing some simple math think about that margin

The middle margins where PointsBet would profit:
Team A : 11 goals v Team B: 14 Goals = 154, Lost to the punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 11 Goals v Team B: 13 Goals= 143, Lost to the punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 12 Goals v Team B: 12 Goals= 144, Lost to the punter, Win To PointsBet
Team A: 12 Goals v Team B: 13 Goals=156, Lost to the punter, Win To PointsBet
Team A: 10 Goals v Team B: 14 Goals=154, Lost to the punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 9 Goals v Team B:16 Goals=144, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 8 Goals v Team B: 18 Goals= 144, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 8 Goals v Team B: 19 Goals=152 , Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 7 Goals v Team B: 20 Goals=140, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 7 Goals v Team B: 21 Goals= 147, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 7 Goals v Team B: 22 Goals= 154 , Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 6 Goals V Team B: 24 Goals= 144, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 6 Goals v Team B: 25 Goals=150, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 6 Goals v Team B: 26 Goals=156, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 5 Goals v Team B: 28 Goals= 140, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 5 Goals v Team B: 29 Goals=145 , Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 5 Goals v Team B: 30 Goals= 150, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A : 5 Goals v Team B: 31 Goals=155, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 4 Goals v Team B: 35 Goals= 140 , Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 4 Goals v Team B: 36 Goals=144, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 4 Goals v Team B: 37 Goals=148 , Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 4 Goals v Team B: 38 Goals=152, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet


I have to agree with you paris after doing the review, i think the spread is too large.Could see any one of those top 5 landing..........

 

[NYRB]

it begs the question how on earth PointsBet came up with a spread of 139-159 for Cross Goals= that's way too much. Should be a spread of around 5-6 points each way eg 146-152, would be a lot more fairer.....

 

[burge13]

Geez - spread betting on cross goals sounds like a one way trip to the poor house.

Pointsbets offering for spread betting is ridiculous anyway. They give themselves FAR too much leeway

Over 189.5/Under 181.5 type stuff.

No one has an edge on that type of shit line. It's addicts and thrill seekers hoping to hit it big

The other markets like kicks*handballs*marks is just lunacy

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet, I know you guys regularly read this thread and have great promos but its time to reduce your spreads for 'Cross Goals'