balmainforever
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AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)
- Thread starter TheJanuaryMan
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- Mar 27, 2018
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whoever asked for the Melb + GC to poll more than Port + Ess and vice-versa
i love you.
i love you.
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Norm Smith Medallist
- May 6, 2009
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If hugh greenwood is the answer then you are most definitely asking the wrong question
Possible, he did miss a large chunk of games but realistically 2nd place at the Sun's probably isn't going to be a high number of votes so he's a decent chance
Michael Scarn
Club Legend
I think it's usually locked out of 7plus like the actual AFL matches - could be wrong
I really hope Walsh isn't involved in any ties for a Top 10 spot.. would decrease the payout for a lot of multis out there
He definitely can IMO.
Yep, it's bullshit. Can't watch it on the internet at all. I just spent the last hour making an antenna. Ridiculous.
- May 6, 2009
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Good luck everyone. Kudos to those that spent 100s of hours creating counts. Hope you guys are rewarded tonight. I used to do the same and really enjoy Brownlow night. It’s an exciting event to bet on for the high rewards on bets like Team votes. There will be no doubt disappointed people tonight, but also some very happy. All the best 
It will be interesting to see if the umps lean more towards Petracca after his strong 2020, more so than Oliver. Feel there might be a story there. Bont has that star factor that can’t be ignored & he will poll very well in my opinion. Is very open this year. Should be a great count. Enjoy it Boys
It will be interesting to see if the umps lean more towards Petracca after his strong 2020, more so than Oliver. Feel there might be a story there. Bont has that star factor that can’t be ignored & he will poll very well in my opinion. Is very open this year. Should be a great count. Enjoy it Boys
More that Bont & Wines are standout 3s in more games, Oliver was more often "one of the best".
Competition isn't that Bruce will poll 3 in a game where Bont isn't expected to poll, it's that Petracca and Gawn could steal the 3 in games that Oliver is tipped to poll it.
He did , kicked 6 and the Hawks won, even if it doesn't go to one of the midfielders he is a huge chance. Was a pretty crazy game with momentum swings and a big come back, will be interesting to see how it plays out, fingers crossed !
- May 20, 2016
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anyone else already started drinking?
I agree, any one of the top 5 are massively in play. Petracca could easily win tonight if he is consistently favoured v OliverGood luck everyone. Kudos to those that spent 100s of hours creating counts. Hope you guys are rewarded tonight. I used to do the same and really enjoy Brownlow night. It’s an exciting event to bet on for the high rewards on bets like Team votes. There will be no doubt disappointed people tonight, but also some very happy. All the best
It will be interesting to see if the umps lean more towards Petracca after his strong 2020, more so than Oliver. Feel there might be a story there. Bont has that star factor that can’t be ignored & he will poll very well in my opinion. Is very open this year. Should be a great count. Enjoy it Boys
- May 6, 2009
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Yeah that's my rationale.
It (teammates pinching votes factor) wouldn't be a major influence usually, but because it is likely a close one this year- it could be decisive.
If only my saints had won a couple more games, I'd be all over the man of steele like a cheap suit.... ain't no mates stealing his votes tonight.
bluebet as well... useless
For what its worth, here's my count. Really looking forward to tonight. There's every chance Wines and Trac poll a lot better than what I've got them at, and that could impact Oliver and Boak. I think Clarry does enough to win though.
| Players Club | Player Name | Total Votes |
| Melbourne | Clayton Oliver | 35 |
| St Kilda | Jack Steele | 32 |
| Western Bulldogs | Marcus Bontempelli | 32 |
| Essendon | Darcy Parish | 28 |
| Port Adelaide | Ollie Wines | 28 |
| Port Adelaide | Travis Boak | 25 |
| Carlton | Sam Walsh | 23 |
| Hawthorn | Tom Mitchell | 23 |
| Melbourne | Christian Petracca | 23 |
| Sydney | Luke Parker | 23 |
| Essendon | Zach Merrett | 22 |
| Fremantle | David Mundy | 21 |
| Gold Coast | Touk Miller | 20 |
| Adelaide | Rory Laird | 19 |
| Brisbane | Jarryd Lyons | 19 |
| Sydney | Callum Mills | 19 |
| Brisbane | Dayne Zorko | 18 |
| Brisbane | Hugh McCluggage | 18 |
| Western Bulldogs | Jack Macrae | 18 |
| GWS | Josh Kelly | 17 |
The umpires perspective on Oliver decides my count. At the moment I have Steele 1st on 29, Oliver 2nd on 28, but Oliver has by far the biggest range for me. I think I have him 25 to 34. If he goes 25, then I expect Petracca to just fall into the top 3, if he goes 34 it's all over and he's the runaway winner.
good idea.. i was gonna start after 6.. might start a couple of hours earlier
Comparing the odds of SB/LB/B365/PB for 3 vote games to the players given the clear 3 by Betfair
From the looks of that, Ladbrokes probably the place to go for rollovers. If anyone has a bot that could enter the data though for 23 rounds that'd be even better!
| Round | Player | SB | Ladbrokes | Bet365 | PB |
1 | D.Martin | $1.03 | $1.05 | $1.04 | $1.04 |
1 | B.Smith | $1.07 | $1.16 | $1.12 | $1.15 |
1 | T.Walker | $1.10 | $1.20 | $1.16 | $1.15 |
1 | C.Mills | $1.05 | $1.07 | $1.05 | $1.07 |
1 | T.Boak | $1.07 | $1.08 | $1.07 | $1.08 |
2 | Z.Butters | $1.30 | $1.25 | $1.20 | $1.11 |
2 | N.Anderson | $1.45 | $1.50 | $1.45 | $1.40 |
2 | M.Bontempelli | $1.10 | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.30 |
2 | A.Brayshaw | $1.87 | $1.95 | $1.95 | $1.80 |
From the looks of that, Ladbrokes probably the place to go for rollovers. If anyone has a bot that could enter the data though for 23 rounds that'd be even better!
ive got a multi with tab that i can cash out with tex as adelaide winner w/o laird. do i cash it out at say round 20 before keays polls in the last round? ive got dusty guthrie kelly parker lyons bont oliver boak as the other legs
- May 20, 2016
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can multi up to 10 rounds on topsport!
botswana42
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yeah agreed, never done a rollover before, and imo probably not worth the effort to call up, when we can just multi. Thanks TopSport!
You could hedge with a punt on Keays. I actually think seedsman could surprise also.
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