AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[NYRB]

Also thilthorpe @12 on his debut, total bias on my part and I think koschitzke kicked more goals but that was a crazy performance. Again unlikely but there is a world where he gets the 3

PointsBet are offering odds of $13.00 if Keen?

And No I don't work for PointsBet or endorse them.

 

[srobbo]

Oliver/Bont quin @ $7.50

Trac top 5/Boak & McCrae top 10 @ $10

 

[The_Steadier]

Think clarrys' chances are overrated personally, he will have more votes pinched off him by teammates than ollie or bont will.
As such I've today had a nibble at:

Tex lead rnd5 + bont lead round 10 + tied winner @ $34 TS and

Tex lead rnd5 + bont lead round 10 + ollie winner @ $29.42 TS.

FYI, despite TS 'allowing' multis like betting on individual game 3 vote winners + overall winners etc- the bets don't actually get placed.
They go into 'processing', then get rejected.
It's a mirage, so all you early birdies need not worry- you're not missing anything

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Think clarrys' chances are overrated personally, he will have more votes pinched off him by teammates than ollie or bont will.
As such I've today had a nibble at:

Tex lead rnd5 + bont lead round 10 + tied winner @ $34 TS and

Tex lead rnd5 + bont lead round 10 + ollie winner @ $29.42 TS.

FYI, despite TS 'allowing' multis like betting on individual game 3 vote winners + overall winners etc- the bets don't actually get placed.
They go into 'processing', then get rejected.
It's a mirage, so all you early birdies need not worry- you're not missing anything

This is a myth. He has Petracca and Gawn early in the season. Wines has Boak and Amon at times. Bont has Macrae, Baz Smith/Libba a few times, Bruce in games he kicked big bags and Dunkley/Treloar early season

 

[DT_35]

This is a myth. He has Petracca and Gawn early in the season. Wines has Boak and Amon at times. Bont has Macrae, Baz Smith/Libba a few times, Bruce in games he kicked big bags and Dunkley/Treloar early season

Comparing Gawn and Petrecca to Amon, Baz and those others, cmon man

 

[Prochard123]

Does anyone know if the broadcast will be on Kayo? Don't have acecss to a TV tonight.

Also assuming it starts 7:30 pm tonight but the actual polling wont be for another hour?

 

[Flameboy]

For anyone looking to make some last minute, easy money.

Wines - Top 5
Oliver - Top 5
Steele - Top 10
Petracca - Top 10
Merrett - Top 20

$1.97 boosted on PointsBet. Double your money. Happy days.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

 

[Prochard123]

For anyone looking to make some last minute, easy money.

Wines - Top 5
Oliver - Top 5
Steele - Top 10
Petracca - Top 10
Merrett - Top 20

$1.97 boosted on PointsBet. Double your money. Happy days.

Is merrett top 20 a threat? I have him included but admittedly have just taken his chances at face value

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Incredible.

How did you go about getting such a strong position?

Just a few principles:

1. Bet within limits. Certain % of bankroll is most important with any strategy

2. Long term strategy. Take the view that Brownlow betting is not just for this year, it's for the next 10+ years. If Bont and Petracca had continued to shorten I would've taken the loss despite being able to hedge out as over the long run I would still come out ahead from having those long price value picks

3. Just take value. Obviously this is a bit subjective. But for this year in particular it became clear early on that the market was over-reacting to Bont and Petracca (and Dusty early doors) for a few reasons.
- Bont's good games were worthy of 5 votes.
- Petracca hype continued on the back of last year and people were slow to react that Oliver was the one at the next level this year(This forum early doors definitely knew this though).
People gave up on Steele mid season unreasonably
- A bit unrealistic to expect that Saints were gonna continue to get smashed by 100 points every week.
- Zak Jones injury was always gonna be great for Steele as Jones is way more noticeable.

Was definitely made a lot easier with the issues re. Neale, Fyfe, Dusty, Cripps who were all in the market early doors.

 

[Geeves Train]

There's a world where J Hogan gets 3 v Adelaide in his comeback game in Rd 7. Unlikely, but @51 worth a throw at the stumps. He was easily the best forward that day

I don’t want to live in this world

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Comparing Gawn and Petrecca to Amon, Baz and those others, cmon man

Gawn has a few big games early in the season and goes on a stretch where he was relatively quiet. He's not stealing any votes from Oliver after the first half of the season. Petracca and Oliver dominated in games together and will both poll in plenty of the same games alternating between the 3-2.

Wines has Boak and Bont has Macrae as the main ones taking votes off them I don't see what the issue is?

 

[botswana42]

Think clarrys' chances are overrated personally, he will have more votes pinched off him by teammates than ollie or bont will.
As such I've today had a nibble at:

Tex lead rnd5 + bont lead round 10 + tied winner @ $34 TS and

Tex lead rnd5 + bont lead round 10 + ollie winner @ $29.42 TS.

FYI, despite TS 'allowing' multis like betting on individual game 3 vote winners + overall winners etc- the bets don't actually get placed.
They go into 'processing', then get rejected.
It's a mirage, so all you early birdies need not worry- you're not missing anything

seemed to work for me

 

[Tigers04]

I assume topsport is the only book allowing multis on 3 vote games?
pointsbet can let you multi but when you go to confirm they don’t allow it

 

[NYRB]

Also thilthorpe @12 on his debut, total bias on my part and I think koschitzke kicked more goals but that was a crazy performance. Again unlikely but there is a world where he gets the 3

When I watched this game 1st time, I thought Thilthorpe was best on ground as well. Just have that nagging feeling he too get a 3 on debut.

I eventually decided to give him no votes in my second review. Think the odds are 'fair'.

 

[Its not the coach]

Macrae into $5.50 from $8 on Sportsbets elite player handicap betting. Looks like the smart punters got on.

 

[The_Steadier]

seemed to work for meView attachment 1239776

Yeah you can multi individual games, but not with other things like overall winner, top 3 etc etc

 

[NYRB]

Yeah you can multi individual games, but not with other things like overall winner, top 3 etc etc

Found that I got rejected initially

By doing an example of Oliver to Poll 3 Votes in Rd 1, Oliver to Win the Medal..........as a bit of a test ...it got rejected.

Tried another example of Oliver to Poll 3 votes in Rd 1, Petracca to Win Medal........and it worked.

The trick is as so long as the legs are 'not related', do the bets get accepted.

 

[The_Steadier]

This is a myth. He has Petracca and Gawn early in the season. Wines has Boak and Amon at times. Bont has Macrae, Baz Smith/Libba a few times, Bruce in games he kicked big bags and Dunkley/Treloar early season

If only there was some glorious, glittering occasion where we could find out which of us was right...



Oh well. I suppose we'll just have to settle for an old fashioned internet p155ing contest.

I think I'M right.

 

[botswana42]

I assume topsport is the only book allowing multis on 3 vote games?
pointsbet can let you multi but when you go to confirm they don’t allow it

took 5 or so minutes working through their shit site to get a 20legger up, then denied, honestly why do they troll us..

 

[NonPhixion]

Zurhaar 15 or more votes?

Surely SB is putting bait out

 

[The_Steadier]

Found that I got rejected initially

By doing an example of Oliver to Poll 3 Votes in Rd 1, Oliver to Win the Medal..........as a bit of a test ...it got rejected.

Tried another example of Oliver to Poll 3 votes in Rd 1, Petracca to Win Medal........and it worked.

The trick is as so long as the legs are 'not related', do the bets get accepted.

Yeah their definition of 'not related' is quite limited though.

Ie you can't multi say bont to win even 1 round + him for anything overall like winner/top 3 etc.

 

[The_Steadier]

Does anyone know if the broadcast will be on Kayo? Don't have acecss to a TV tonight.

Also assuming it starts 7:30 pm tonight but the actual polling wont be for another hour?

It would be on the 7plus app presumably

 

[frank99]

When I watched this game 1st time, I thought Thilthorpe was best on ground as well. Just have that nagging feeling he too get a 3 on debut.

I eventually decided to give him no votes in my second review. Think the odds are 'fair'.

Indeed, I agree on reflection, and the fact it was a debut shouldn't change anything... But I can't shake the feeling the umps got caught up in the buzz and he gets all 3.. haha I've thought about it too much that I have to get onboard in case

 

[NYRB]

Indeed, I agree on reflection, and the fact it was a debut shouldn't change anything... But I can't shake the feeling the umps got caught up in the buzz and he gets all 3.. haha I've thought about it too much that I have to get onboard in case

He could do a Matt Rowell and poll a 3 on debut.

THere was a game last year where Riccardi from the Giants kicked many goals on debut.............i thought was a decent bet but didnt land the 3.

At $12-$13...its worth a go for sure...........good luck

i wouldnt want to be backing anything in single digits though.

From memory Koschitzke also kicked a number of goals at the opposite end.