AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[dontlimitme]

3 Vote Multi on Topsport - Rd1 Steven May

1

Steven May

Age

32

Ht

193cm

Wt

101kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

4.2

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.5

3star

MG

307.3

4star

D

15.5

4star

K

12.1

5star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

0.5

1star

MG

378.4

5star

D

12.4

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

/Rd2 Andrew Brayshaw

8

Andrew Brayshaw

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.3

5star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

2.1

4star

D

18.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

10.8

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

3.1

4star

D

12.6

4star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.8

3star

/Rd3 Grundy/Rd6 Keays/Rd 10 Grundy @ 41.77

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Anyone know what time the actual count starts?

Red carpet not your thing mate?

 

[invisible_]

Here's the final results of my model to throw in the mix for comparisons. Numbers for winnner/top3/top5 etc are percentage of simulations where player ended up in that bracket. Key difference to the consensus is Mundy/McCluggage both missing top 20 more often than not

 

[Ah12]

Really rate a lot of this. Would deadset make close to 200k+ if this was the case re. the team totals (from team handicap multis).
What's your process for coming up with votes if you don't mind?

How much have you outlayed in total bets for tonight if you dont mind me asking. Thats a crazy potential collect and im curious as ive never really bet on the Brownlow before.

 

[10571z]

Neale a chance 10+ votes? Paying $6 on Sportsbet

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Outlay would be close to 15k, but risk isn't really that.

This is my Betfair position. Would only lose if a $1000:1 shot gets up. On the back of getting:
Steele in from $150:1
Wines in from $75:1
Oliver in from $25:1
Parish in from$220:1 early doors
Finally pulled the trigger on greening up Petracca and Bont after they had 0 value all year.

Outside of this, probably $1000 in multis. 80% of said multi's haven't shortened greater than 70% so should be alright there.

As for the 200k part, that's just a bit of luck in discovering the TAB team handicap market within 1hr of its release so there was still some juice there to put some hail mary multi's like this:

 

[X_box_X]

Outlay would be close to 15k, but risk isn't really that.
View attachment 1239680
This is my Betfair position. Would only lose if a $1000:1 shot gets up. On the back of getting:
Steele in from $150:1
Wines in from $75:1
Oliver in from $25:1
Parish in from$220:1 early doors
Finally pulled the trigger on greening up Petracca and Bont after they had 0 value all year.

Outside of this, probably $1000 in multis. 80% of said multi's haven't shortened greater than 70% so should be alright there.

As for the 200k part, that's just a bit of luck in discovering the TAB team handicap market within 1hr of its release so there was still some juice there to put some hail mary multi's like this:
View attachment 1239684

Incredible.

How did you go about getting such a strong position?

 

[the_big_sav]

what site do you guys use for the live count? the afl site has been pretty average the last couple of seasons

 

[botswana42]

Outlay would be close to 15k, but risk isn't really that.
View attachment 1239680
This is my Betfair position. Would only lose if a $1000:1 shot gets up. On the back of getting:
Steele in from $150:1
Wines in from $75:1
Oliver in from $25:1
Parish in from$220:1 early doors
Finally pulled the trigger on greening up Petracca and Bont after they had 0 value all year.

Outside of this, probably $1000 in multis. 80% of said multi's haven't shortened greater than 70% so should be alright there.

As for the 200k part, that's just a bit of luck in discovering the TAB team handicap market within 1hr of its release so there was still some juice there to put some hail mary multi's like this:
View attachment 1239684

wow, that's unreal mate. fantastic betting, cmon steele! cheering him too, (for nowhere near as much)

 

[Gift]

Incredible.

How did you go about getting such a strong position?

Haha I thought you would be the one to be the master at that

 

[EFL Boy]

Merry Christmas all!

Hope everyone in here is in for a good night ahead. Had a great time all year following along and the back-and-forth has been very helpful.

Here's my top 25 & team-by-team counts.

 

[X_box_X]

Haha I thought you would be the one to be the master at that

I don't commit any time to Brownlow trading. I might start focusing my attention on it more.

How's thing, mate?

Go Dogs!

 

[NonPhixion]

Outlay would be close to 15k, but risk isn't really that.
View attachment 1239680
This is my Betfair position. Would only lose if a $1000:1 shot gets up. On the back of getting:
Steele in from $150:1
Wines in from $75:1
Oliver in from $25:1
Parish in from$220:1 early doors
Finally pulled the trigger on greening up Petracca and Bont after they had 0 value all year.

Outside of this, probably $1000 in multis. 80% of said multi's haven't shortened greater than 70% so should be alright there.

As for the 200k part, that's just a bit of luck in discovering the TAB team handicap market within 1hr of its release so there was still some juice there to put some hail mary multi's like this:
View attachment 1239684

Betfair pr0n

 

[Gift]

I don't commit any time to Brownlow trading. I might start focusing my attention on it more.

How's thing, mate?

Go Dogs!

Besides being stuck in a never ending lockdown, I cant complain

Brownlow night each year has always been my biggest outlay, so its the night I am always the most excited for. Just hoping to break even so anything else is a bonus

And yes I am very happy about the Dogs this year. I would have been annoyed if we didnt get this far with how stacked our list currently is. Well done to Bevo for turning things around come finals time.

Hope you and the kids are doing well

 

[LIONS15v]

Captured this from the footy show earlier..

 

[ordinarypunter]

If anyone interested in some extra markets found this

https://www.betright.com.au/sports/Australian-Rules/Australia/Brownlow-Medal/2021-Brownlow-Medal---Right-Odds/185517//

Can request markets as well

 

[Fitzey]

Best of luck tonight everyone, let’s hope we all reach our goal off beating them bookies.

 

[Geead]

Wouldn’t bother me if Jacqui wanted to get undressed and put on every dress colour

Lmaooo looks like they already prepared for that

 

[Jonsyd1]

Never bet on the Brownlow before, anyone that’s had past experience how do you usually go with guessing the top 20?
At the moment I’ve got

Top 5
Oliver, Steele, Wines, Bont
Top 10
Miller, Parish, Petracca
Top 20
Lyons, Kelly, Guthrie, Laird, Parker

$15.25


Considering chucking a decent amount on this, but as I said I’ve never bet on the Brownlow before so any feedback is appreciated, cheers

 

[NYRB]

So they have Armaguard in Perth? Also is mark attending

Pretty sure they do.

If Mark McGowan is attending..........that Brownlow Bingo would be a shoe-in.


AS I speak 'Mark McGowan' to be mentioned in the telecast has shortened from $5 to $4

 

[BOOYAH1987]

Finished my count guys, good luck. !! I’ve got Oliver at $21 odds & Wines at $81.

 

[frank99]

There's a world where J Hogan gets 3 v Adelaide in his comeback game in Rd 7. Unlikely, but @51 worth a throw at the stumps. He was easily the best forward that day

 

[frank99]

Also thilthorpe @12 on his debut, total bias on my part and I think koschitzke kicked more goals but that was a crazy performance. Again unlikely but there is a world where he gets the 3

 

[LIONS15v]

Bets are locked in and loaded.

Oliver T5, Walsh/Trac T10, Boak/Merret/Parker T20 is gonna be THE breadmaker.

Bring on the count!! Let's all cash and clean up the books.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Pretty sure they do.

If Mark McGowan is attending..........that Brownlow Bingo would be a shoe-in.


AS I speak 'Mark McGowan' to be mentioned in the telecast has shortened from $5 to $4

You’d think there is a pretty good chance he gets a mention at some point even if he isn’t there.