Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[richoatthedisco]

Richmond pissed they missed Hobbs take Amiss thinking freo want him at the next pick.

We don't draft for spite.

 

[bird_man]

Well unless you've had family tragedy/incident in your life at a point in time when you're trying to focus on building yourself up then you wouldn't really know.

How callous of you to assume, as a young man away from his family, it'd merely 'shaken him up', hope nothing like that happens to a loved one of yours for you to simply brush it off and get back to work!

2nd year KPD coming off Covid year 2020, and a limited pre-season coming into 2021. I'll save my hot-takes for end of the next season.

Get off your high horse drama queen.

I've had genuine family tragedy in my life like plenty of us so don't give me that crap.

McAsey has been a disappointment, I think you are clutching at straws trying to use that as the reason why.

 

[Swiggy]

Yeah I feel freo will start that chain reaction by taking Hobbs before Richmond can. I’m not convinced they’re that keen on Amiss who is pretty similar to Treacy. If they walked away with Hobbs and Erasmus they would be thrilled with that midfield group. Van Rooyan is a decent chance to get to them at 21 who they rate highly. Richmond pissed they missed Hobbs take Amiss thinking freo want him at the next pick. Freo get Erasmus. Unfortunately doesn’t leave many mids left for the poor old saints so they go for best available in Johnson.

I’m interested to see why you think treacy and amiss are similar?
Treacy is more of a crash & bash forward
Amiss is your quick on the lead with good skills.

 

[theGav56]

Yeah I feel freo will start that chain reaction by taking Hobbs before Richmond can. I’m not convinced they’re that keen on Amiss who is pretty similar to Treacy. If they walked away with Hobbs and Erasmus they would be thrilled with that midfield group. Van Rooyan is a decent chance to get to them at 21 who they rate highly. Richmond pissed they missed Hobbs take Amiss thinking freo want him at the next pick. Freo get Erasmus. Unfortunately doesn’t leave many mids left for the poor old saints so they go for best available in Johnson.

Interesting scenario. I see Johnson as the better midfield fit for Fremantle than Hobbs, as a direct Cerra replacement and a segue into the post-Mundy years.

I'm fine if we take Amiss, but like you I am a little unconvinced. I can see a strong argument for taking midfielders early and hoping for KPF crumbs later. I also don't mind Williams if we traded down pick 21, and we will have access to Benning.

 

[bird_man]

Interesting scenario. I see Johnson as the better midfield fit for Fremantle than Hobbs, as a direct Cerra replacement and a segue into the post-Mundy years.

I'm fine if we take Amiss, but like you I am a little unconvinced. I can see a strong argument for taking midfielders early and hoping for KPF crumbs later. I also don't mind Williams if we traded down pick 21, and we will have access to Benning.

Hobbs looks a much better player than Johnson so I wouldn't be getting caught up in who is the better fit in terms of style.

Not with a pick that high in the draft anyway.

I like the look Amiss. I'll be surprised if Freo let him past their second pick.

 

[danster168]

1. North Melbourne- Jason Horne-Francis
2. Western Bulldogs- Sam Darcy
3. Collingwood- Nick Daicos
4. Josh Rachele- GWS
5. Mac Andrew- Gold Coast
6. Finn Callaghan- Adelaide
7. Josh Ward- Hawthorn
8. Neil Erasmus- Fremantle
9. Ben Hobbs- Richmond
10. Jye Amiss- Fremantle
11. Josh Gibcus- St Kilda
12. Matthew Johnson- West Coast
13. Josh Goater- Essendon
14. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Port Adelaide
15. Josh Sinn- GWS
16. Jacob Van Rooyen- Brisbane
17. Tyler Sonsie- Richmond
18. Arlo Draper- Sydney
19. Zac Taylor- Melbourne
20. Campbell Chesser- Brisbane
21. Jack Williams- Fremantle
22. Darcy Wilmot- North Melbourne
23. Sam Butler- Hawthorn
24. Matthew Roberts- Geelong
25. Blake Howles- Hawthorn
26. Jesse Motlop- Carlton
27. Marcus Windhager- St Kilda
28. Rhett Bazzo- Richmond
29. Judson Clark- Richmond
30- Connor McDonald- Richmond
31- Mitchito Owens- St Kilda
32- Angus Sheldrick- West Coast
33- Mitch Knevitt- Geelong
34- Ned Long-Sydney
35- Tom Brown - Geelong
36- Cooper Murley- Adelaide
37- Toby Conway- Geelong
38- Corey Warner- West Coast
39- Kai Lohmann- Melbourne
40- Leek Alleer- Sydney
41- Sam Banks- Brisbane
42- Charlie Dean- North Melbourne
43- Paul Curtis- Western Bulldogs
44- Lachlan Rankin-North Melbourne
45- Hugh Jackson-Collingwood
46- Brady Hough- Melbourne
47- Charlie Molan- Geelong
48- Jake Soligo- Essendon
49- James Tunstill- Western Bulldogs
50- Lukas Cooke- Collingwood
51- Hugo Stagg- Essendon
52- Tyreece Leui- Melbourne
53- Kade Dittmar- Collingwood

I'd be surprised if Melbourne took Zac Taylor. We took Bowey and Laurie in last years draft, both a similar size and skill level.

 

[Swiggy]

Hobbs looks a much better player than Johnson so I wouldn't be getting caught up in who is the better fit in terms of style.

Not with a pick that high in the draft anyway.

I like the look Amiss. I'll be surprised if Freo let him past their second pick.

agree I can’t see Freo taking Johnson so high.

 

[year of the cat]

1. North Melbourne - Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos (Bid Matched)
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy (Bid Matched)
4. GWS - Callaghan
5. Gold Coast - Andrew
6. Adelaide - Ward
7. Hawthorn - Hobbs
8. Fremantle - Erasmus
9. Richmond - Gibcus
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Sinn
12. West Coast - Johnson
13. Essendon - Rachelle
14. Port Adelaide - Wangeneen-Milera
15. GWS - Sonsie
16. Brisbane - Goater
17. Richmond - Chesser
18. Sydney - Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Draper
20. Brisbane - Taylor
21. Fremantle - Van Rooyan

22. North Melbourne - Roberts
23. Hawthorn - MacDonald
24. St Kilda - Owens (Bid Matched)
25. Geelong - Brown
26. Hawthorn - Knevitt
27. Carlton - Butler
28. GWS - Fahey (Bid Matched)
29. Richmond - Conway
30. Richmond - Clarke
31. Richmond - Long
32. West Coast - Hough
33. Geelong - Howes
34. Sydney - Murley
35. Geelong - Bazzo
36. Adelaide - Browne
37. Geelong - Sheldrick

 

[Stylo]

1. North Melbourne - Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos (Bid Matched)
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy (Bid Matched)
4. GWS - Callaghan
5. Gold Coast - Andrew
6. Adelaide - Ward
7. Hawthorn - Hobbs
8. Fremantle - Erasmus
9. Richmond - Gibcus
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Sinn
12. West Coast - Johnson
13. Essendon - Rachelle
14. Port Adelaide - Wangeneen-Milera
15. GWS - Sonsie
16. Brisbane - Goater
17. Richmond - Van Rooyan
18. Sydney - Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Chesser
20. Brisbane - Taylor
21. Fremantle - Draper

22. North Melbourne - Roberts
23. Hawthorn - MacDonald
24. St Kilda - Owens (Bid Matched)
25. Geelong - Brown
26. Hawthorn - Knevitt
27. Carlton - Butler
28. GWS - Fahey (Bid Matched)
29. Richmond - Bazzo
30. Richmond - Sheldrick
31. Richmond - Wilmot
32. West Coast - Warner
33. Geelong - Long
34. Sydney - Howes
35. Geelong - Murley
36. Adelaide - Clark
37. Geelong - Alleer

3 KPDs & a med defender - not a likely outcome for us

 

[year of the cat]

3 KPDs & a med defender - not a likely outcome for us

Fair point.....will edit

 

[Big_Newon]

1. North Melbourne - Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos (Bid Matched)
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy (Bid Matched)
4. GWS - Callaghan
5. Gold Coast - Andrew
6. Adelaide - Ward
7. Hawthorn - Hobbs
8. Fremantle - Erasmus
9. Richmond - Gibcus
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Sinn
12. West Coast - Johnson
13. Essendon - Rachelle
14. Port Adelaide - Wangeneen-Milera
15. GWS - Sonsie
16. Brisbane - Goater
17. Richmond - Van Rooyan
18. Sydney - Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Chesser
20. Brisbane - Taylor
21. Fremantle - Draper

22. North Melbourne - Roberts
23. Hawthorn - MacDonald
24. St Kilda - Owens (Bid Matched)
25. Geelong - Brown
26. Hawthorn - Knevitt
27. Carlton - Butler
28. GWS - Fahey (Bid Matched)
29. Richmond - Bazzo
30. Richmond - Sheldrick
31. Richmond - Wilmot
32. West Coast - Warner
33. Geelong - Long
34. Sydney - Howes
35. Geelong - Murley
36. Adelaide - Clark
37. Geelong - Alleer

Good except for Wilmot being drafted twice.

 

[year of the cat]

Good except for Wilmot being drafted twice.

Noted that also.

 

[RUNVS]

Good except for Wilmot being drafted twice.

Trying to draft a player that has already been drafted feels very Richmond though.

 

[richoatthedisco]

Fair point.....will edit

You made it worse.

 

[Smythe]

1. North Melbourne - Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos (Bid Matched)
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy (Bid Matched)
4. GWS - Callaghan
5. Gold Coast - Andrew
6. Adelaide - Ward
7. Hawthorn - Hobbs
8. Fremantle - Erasmus
9. Richmond - Gibcus
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Sinn
12. West Coast - Johnson
13. Essendon - Rachelle
14. Port Adelaide - Wangeneen-Milera
15. GWS - Sonsie
16. Brisbane - Goater
17. Richmond - Chesser
18. Sydney - Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Draper
20. Brisbane - Taylor
21. Fremantle - Sheldrick

22. North Melbourne - Roberts
23. Hawthorn - MacDonald
24. St Kilda - Owens (Bid Matched)
25. Geelong - Brown
26. Hawthorn - Knevitt
27. Carlton - Butler
28. GWS - Fahey (Bid Matched)
29. Richmond - Conway
30. Richmond - Clarke
31. Richmond - Long
32. West Coast - Hough
33. Geelong - Howes
34. Sydney - Murley
35. Geelong - Bazzo
36. Adelaide - Browne
37. Geelong - Rayson

No Van rooyen in the first 37 picks

 

[year of the cat]

No Van rooyen in the first 37 picks

Trying to do this whilst working isn't conducive to a thorough draft!!

 

[Smythe]

Trying to do this whilst working isn't conducive to a thorough draft!!

understandable

 

[Blackhawk42]

I'd be surprised if Melbourne took Zac Taylor. We took Bowey and Laurie in last years draft, both a similar size and skill level.

What happened to Laurie? I desperately wanted him at Hawthorn but he was gone by our second pick.

 

[joydivision22]

I’m interested to see why you think treacy and amiss are similar?
Treacy is more of a crash & bash forward
Amiss is your quick on the lead with good skills.

Similar height and athletic profile with pace of the mark. Both very good on the lead with pace and hands and would probably play a similar position (not to say they couldn’t both play together eventually) but not sure they could right away. Obviously the biggest trait is a repeatable simplistic set shot action. Plenty of differences too of course but my feeling is that JVR projects as less likely to be a bust? Don’t really know but my view from afar

 

[adonski]

What happened to Laurie? I desperately wanted him at Hawthorn but he was gone by our second pick.

Injured bulk of the year, only played one or two VFL games

 

[joydivision22]

Interesting scenario. I see Johnson as the better midfield fit for Fremantle than Hobbs, as a direct Cerra replacement and a segue into the post-Mundy years.

I'm fine if we take Amiss, but like you I am a little unconvinced. I can see a strong argument for taking midfielders early and hoping for KPF crumbs later. I also don't mind Williams if we traded down pick 21, and we will have access to Benning.

I did a mock draft as freo and went for Erasmus (8) Johnson (10) and got JVR at (21). I think that is close to best possible result but if freo went Hobbs at 8, I think they could get Erasmus at 10 Which in my view would be preferable. Obvs depends on who you rate higher Johnson or Hobbs but I think Hobbs looks the better player at the moment with his power around the contest.

 

[theGav56]

Hobbs looks a much better player than Johnson so I wouldn't be getting caught up in who is the better fit in terms of style.

Not with a pick that high in the draft anyway.

I like the look Amiss. I'll be surprised if Freo let him past their second pick.

Not sure that's the scenario. If Fremantle take Hobbs Richmond are just as likely to take Erasmus. I think Fremantle take Erasmus before Hobbs, and assuming Richmond take Hobbs and we want another midfielder, Johnson comes into play.

 

[theGav56]

I did a mock draft as freo and went for Erasmus (8) Johnson (10) and got JVR at (21). I think that is close to best possible result but if freo went Hobbs at 8, I think they could get Erasmus at 10 Which in my view would be preferable. Obvs depends on who you rate higher Johnson or Hobbs but I think Hobbs looks the better player at the moment with his power around the contest.

Just posted about this, I think we may rate Erasmus above Hobbs, and don't want to risk Richmond taking him.

Personally would love Erasmus, Hobbs/Johnson and JVR

 

[joydivision22]

Just posted about this, I think we may rate Erasmus above Hobbs, and don't want to risk Richmond taking him.

Right we’ll if they rate him ahead then you’d take him for sure but could be a decent shot at both. Has Erasmus rolled out the id prefer to stay in WA line?

 

[theGav56]

Right we’ll if they rate him ahead then you’d take him for sure but could be a decent shot at both. Has Erasmus rolled out the id prefer to stay in WA line?

WA players don't tend to do that. You're thinking of Vic Metro boys.