Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Dalions]

Wouldn’t be at all surprised if we select 2 WA kids with our first 2 selections, if both were available maybe Johnson and JVR.
We seem to like the WA boys lately.

 

[briztoon]

Wouldn’t be at all surprised if we select 2 WA kids with our first 2 selections, if both were available maybe Johnson and JVR.
We seem to like the WA boys lately.

I believe one or both are probably available at our first pick (depends if the WA teams prioritise going local at their earlier picks).

I don’t believe either will be available by our second pick. If we draft one at 14, the other likely goes between our picks.

And I don’t see Bazzo as a realistic option at 18.

 

[briztoon]

Tigers moving up the draft board.



https://www.afl.com.au/news/685103

 

[Sanchez365]

Do the pies have an insane amount of list spots or something? Or has that rule changed again for this year?

Isnt 9 spots almost 25% of the list?

 

[jfn]

Collingwood look like they are still after more points. Just swapped with Richmond to gain 170 points.
Brisbane’s chance to swap 41, 54, and 60 for Collingwood’s 36 and third round pick for 2022, originally Brisbane’s. That would give Collingwood an extra 270 points and Brisbane move up five places this year, plus gain points for Ashcroft next year.

 

[Dalions]

I believe one or both are probably available at our first pick (depends if the WA teams prioritise going local at their earlier picks).

I don’t believe either will be available by our second pick. If we draft one at 14, the other likely goes between our picks.

And I don’t see Bazzo as a realistic option at 18.

Certainly possible.

 

[briztoon]

Do the pies have an insane amount of list spots or something? Or has that rule changed again for this year?

Isnt 9 spots almost 25% of the list?

Forget those two picks in the 70’s. I’d only count the first 7.

Jen2310 how many vacant list spots do Collingwood currently have for the draft?

 

[Jen2310]

Forget those two picks in the 70’s. I’d only count the first 7.

Jen2310 how many vacant list spots do Collingwood currently have for the draft?

Yeah, you only count point-related picks for list spots, I think.. 6
Might need to bundle up maybe the picks in the 50's or something. Unless we delist someone else.

 

[Tom14]

Collingwood look like they are still after more points. Just swapped with Richmond to gain 170 points.
Brisbane’s chance to swap 41, 54, and 60 for Collingwood’s 36 and third round pick for 2022, originally Brisbane’s. That would give Collingwood an extra 270 points and Brisbane move up five places this year, plus gain points for Ashcroft next year.

How many picks can the Pies take into the draft? At some point they will run out of list spots. Not really much in it for them to move down even further now.

 

[mattsmob]

And I don’t see Bazzo as a realistic option at 18.

Too early to pick him?

 

[bain22]

Article in the Herald Sun outliing how Jay Clark thinks the top 10 could go.
1. North Melbourne: Jason Horne-Francis - South Adelaide
2. Collingwood: Nick Daicos (Father-son bid) - Oakleigh Chargers
3. Western Bulldogs: Sam Darcy (Father-son bid) - Oakleigh Chargers
4. GWS: Finn Callaghan - Sandringham Dragons
5. Gold Coast: Josh Gibcus - Greater Western Victoria Rebels
6. Adelaide: Ben Hobbs - Greater Victorian Western Rebels
7. Hawthorn: Josh Ward - Northern Knights
8. Fremantle: Jye Amiss - East Perth
9. Richmond: Josh Rachele - Murray Bushrangers
10. Fremantle: Mac Andrew - Dandenong Stingrays Mac Andrew

That leaves some handy players still on the board for the Lions first pick.

 

[briztoon]

Article in the Herald Sun outliing how Jay Clark thinks the top 10 could go.
1. North Melbourne: Jason Horne-Francis - South Adelaide
2. Collingwood: Nick Daicos (Father-son bid) - Oakleigh Chargers
3. Western Bulldogs: Sam Darcy (Father-son bid) - Oakleigh Chargers
4. GWS: Finn Callaghan - Sandringham Dragons
5. Gold Coast: Josh Gibcus - Greater Western Victoria Rebels
6. Adelaide: Ben Hobbs - Greater Victorian Western Rebels
7. Hawthorn: Josh Ward - Northern Knights
8. Fremantle: Jye Amiss - East Perth
9. Richmond: Josh Rachele - Murray Bushrangers
10. Fremantle: Mac Andrew - Dandenong Stingrays Mac Andrew

That leaves some handy players still on the board for the Lions first pick.

I’m not sure about the last two picks, but either way, you’re right about there still being some good players in the next 6 picks.

 

[briztoon]

Too early to pick him?

Probably.

I don’t believe JVR or Bazzo should be top 20 picks.

Put it this way, JVR doesn’t have McStays athleticism, so I’m not seeing the upside there.

I’d be comfortable picking both in the mid to late 20’s.

The conundrum I keep coming back to is as follows;

Most here agree that with our three picks we need a KPP, a mid with size and speed, and HBF.

There aren’t any KPP’s I like in the range of our first two picks. But because there’s a real lack of KPP’s in this draft, they’ll likely be overvalued and picked ahead of where they would normally be picked. So it’s unlikely a player like Leek Aleer lasts until pick 41.

There’s a lot of good smaller mids in this draft, but they aren’t a need for us with our father son kids next year and players already on our list.

It’s possible that the mids that suit us, are gone before our first pick. I certainly don’t see any mids I like that would slip through to pick 41.

And there’s a lot of good HBF’ers of different types who would suit our list, but we don’t really need more than one hbf’er.


For me, looking at how the draft might play out, the best player available at each of our picks might be a hbf’er or a hff’er.

 

[Couch Coach]

How many picks can the Pies take into the draft? At some point they will run out of list spots. Not really much in it for them to move down even further now.

Yes we won't have spare list spots available for more picks.

Conversely we have 3 x 2022 3rd round picks to trade with clubs that have F&S or academy players next year.

 

[mattsmob]

Probably.

I don’t believe JVR or Bazzo should be top 20 picks.

Put it this way, JVR doesn’t have McStays athleticism, so I’m not seeing the upside there.

I’d be comfortable picking both in the mid to late 20’s.

The conundrum I keep coming back to is as follows;

Most here agree that with our three picks we need a KPP, a mid with size and speed, and HBF.

There aren’t any KPP’s I like in the range of our first two picks. But because there’s a real lack of KPP’s in this draft, they’ll likely be overvalued and picked ahead of where they would normally be picked. So it’s unlikely a player like Leek Aleer lasts until pick 41.

There’s a lot of good smaller mids in this draft, but they aren’t a need for us with our father son kids next year and players already on our list.

It’s possible that the mids that suit us, are gone before our first pick. I certainly don’t see any mids I like that would slip through to pick 41.

And there’s a lot of good HBF’ers of different types who would suit our list, but we don’t really need more than one hbf’er.


For me, looking at how the draft might play out, the best player available at each of our picks might be a hbf’er or a hff’er.

I think there will be a good mid/winger with good athleticism at our first pick, I think we’ll be able to find a hbf at our 3rd pick although I don’t see it as much of a need with some of the younger guys we’ve got coming through. I still see Bazzo with a really high ceiling and I can see a pretty clear path for him to crack our best 22 in a year or two so I’d feel comfortable with taking him at 20.

 

[ManeMan]

Let's hope there's a team within a few picks of our pick 20 who really rate Mitch Owens. What would we accept to move back a few spots? Future 3rd rounder? Upgrade from future 3rd to future 2nd?

Interesting pick to have. Shame there's not a few more NGA players this year around that mark.

 

[briztoon]

Let's hope there's a team within a few picks of our pick 20 who really rate Mitch Owens. What would we accept to move back a few spots? Future 3rd rounder? Upgrade from future 3rd to future 2nd?

Interesting pick to have. Shame there's not a few more NGA players this year around that mark.

We traded a future second round pick to move up one spot from the second pick in the second round to the first pick in the second round. (Yes we gave away a future third round pick in that trade)

I would want more than a third round pick back for sliding back.

 

[ManeMan]

We traded a future second round pick to move up one spot from the second pick in the second round to the first pick in the second round. (Yes we gave away a future third round pick in that trade)

I would want more than a third round pick back for sliding back.

Depends how far we would have to move back I guess. I'd be happy to bank the points of a future third for next year if we were only moving back one or two spots. If we were moving back say 5 spots, I'd be asking for a bit more.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Most here agree that with our three picks we need a KPP, a mid with size and speed, and HBF.

Perhaps most of the board does agree, but I don't. To me, there is no rush to draft a KPP prospect if they're not the best available. Unless they become very good very quickly, there will be limited opportunities for them to play while Adams and Daniher are still going, which should be another four years at least. I'd be happy drafting someone like Mac Andrew who has a very high ceiling but needs significant development time. It doesn't sound like you see JVR that way, so I'd avoid him at 14.

There’s a lot of good smaller mids in this draft, but they aren’t a need for us with our father son kids next year and players already on our list.

I do wonder if the fascination with size is a little overblown. Of course it's great to have a dominant big-bodied midfielder, but they go high for a reason, everyone wants that type of player. And yet, teams do win premierships without them. Maybe we need to think outside the square. We're also lacking speed in midfield, so I'd be happy to draft two HBFs as long as they both had good speed, because one of them might be able build up their inside game and move into midfield. Having a lot of speed would help us match up to the rest of the competition.

It’s possible that the mids that suit us, are gone before our first pick. I certainly don’t see any mids I like that would slip through to pick 41.

Dont fancy Ned Long? He's tall.

 

[briztoon]

I think there will be a good mid/winger with good athleticism at our first pick, I think we’ll be able to find a hbf at our 3rd pick although I don’t see it as much of a need with some of the younger guys we’ve got coming through. I still see Bazzo with a really high ceiling and I can see a pretty clear path for him to crack our best 22 in a year or two so I’d feel comfortable with taking him at 20.

Me too. He appears to be a natural replacement for Gardiner.

 

[briztoon]

Perhaps most of the board does agree, but I don't. To me, there is no rush to draft a KPP prospect if they're not the best available. Unless they become very good very quickly, there will be limited opportunities for them to play while Adams and Daniher are still going, which should be another four years at least. I'd be happy drafting someone like Mac Andrew who has a very high ceiling but needs significant development time. It doesn't sound like you see JVR that way, so I'd avoid him at 14.


I do wonder if the fascination with size is a little overblown. Of course it's great to have a dominant big-bodied midfielder, but they go high for a reason, everyone wants that type of player. And yet, teams do win premierships without them. Maybe we need to think outside the square. We're also lacking speed in midfield, so I'd be happy to draft two HBFs as long as they both had good speed, because one of them might be able build up their inside game and move into midfield. Having a lot of speed would help us match up to the rest of the competition.


Dont fancy Ned Long? He's tall.

I’d prefer Mitch Knevitt over Ned Long.

If we delist Ballenden and Brock Smith, either we will need to draft at least one tall defender, or sign a couple for our vfl team.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Me too. He appears to be a natural replacement for Gardiner.

Much like Brock Smith didn't see any game time behind Gardiner and Lester, will Bazzo?

I’d prefer Mitch Knevitt over Ned Long.

If we delist Ballenden and Brock Smith, either we will need to draft at least one tall defender, or sign a couple for our vfl team.

Knevitt has no chance of getting to 41 though. If we ended up going for a tall mid and a HBF with our first two picks, would you prefer Sinn and Knevitt, or Matthew Johnson and Chesser/Wilmot?

I wonder if Charlie Dean makes it to 41

 

[pauldrc]

We traded a future second round pick to move up one spot from the second pick in the second round to the first pick in the second round. (Yes we gave away a future third round pick in that trade)

I would want more than a third round pick back for sliding back.

The thing in this sort of trade is really not how far we might slide (or in the case of the initial Dev trade - how little we moved up for what we had to give up) - that is all irrelevant to the position we actually rate the player we are bringing in.

Sliding 10 spots and still getting the same guy we would have drafted or moving up one spot at a hefty price but ensuring we get a player we rated way higher (and who we know won't be there otherwise)....so previous trades don't always really matter, it's that actual outcome that counts.

 

[briztoon]

Much like Brock Smith didn't see any game time behind Gardiner and Lester, will Bazzo?


Knevitt has no chance of getting to 41 though. If we ended up going for a tall mid and a HBF with our first two picks, would you prefer Sinn and Knevitt, or Matthew Johnson and Chesser/Wilmot?

I wonder if Charlie Dean makes it to 41

I rate Sinn the highest out of the players you mentioned, although there’s more of a chance that both Johnson and Wilmot make it, than Sinn and Knevitt.

I expect Dean makes it to 41. I do question if he has the athletic profile to make it as tall defender.

 

[lionsrules]

Lions Confirm Three List Changes

Three Lions depart the den.

www.lions.com.au

The Brisbane Lions have advised three players they will not be offered a new AFL contract for next year.

Senior listed players Tom Joyce, Brock Smith and rookie Connor Ballenden were informed of the decision in meetings on Monday.