Analysis 2021 draft thread

[JasRulz63]

G'day Lions fans,

Just wondering whether you think the club might look at trading up in the first round or if you think they'd just prefer to stay where they are?

I think if we were moving both 14 and 18 to get up, we'd also want a pick within 30 or so back in this draft given we plan to use three picks.

Like mentioned above, it'd have to be a prospect we rate very highly that we don't think would drop. Means it'd probably be a trade that happens on draft night.

 

[knaf]

That’s the way I see it playing out with our 2022 first rounder as well. If Ashcroft continues with his development, that pick will need to generate the majority of the points required for matching. If we can generate a similar return like the Bulldogs, that coupled with our second rounder will tally atleast 2000 points.

Any notion of transferring that pick to either this draft or the 2023 draft, I just cant see happening. Given our projected finishing position over the next couple of years, would mean us trying to match using 2 late first rounders.

I’d like to see us draft another midfielder and HBF this year with our top picks. Simply shuffle the picks the following year to draft Ashcroft using 4-5 picks. Then try to move our future first back into the 2022 draft, aiming to draft a KPF. By doing this, it stop us using valuable list spots on multiple draftees at pick 60+

I agree with this approach. And next year we will know for certain that Ashcroft has nominated the Lions. My understanding (from BigFooty gossip) is that it is very likely but not guaranteed. It would be foolish to adopt a position now on a probability, when there is no down side ( and maybe positives) in delaying till next year and trading on known positions.

 

[Quigley]

With Ballenden delisted you think we have to go tall with at least one of our picks. Maybe even two.

 

[davemc_lions]

With Ballenden delisted you think we have to go tall with at least one of our picks. Maybe even two.

we have Fort, Fullarton, Lane and H Smith.
If you look at it Lane and Fort took Archie/Ballendens spots
If Hippy was not injured we have the same amount of talls we started 2020 with.

Not sure with smaller lists you can carry too many young developing talls/rucks.
Be interesting if lists keep small if they let them develop to around 22-23 and take from VFL/SANFL WAFL etc
Although I assume other clubs be thinking the same

Problem is injuries to talls.. I think Fullarton and Joe our only talls last year not to miss a week injured?
Not sure we had many weeks with defensive talls Andrews, Adams, Gardiner, Payne and Lester all available.
Oscar, McStay and Hippy missed games
Even VFL pretty sure Ballenden, Archie and H Smith missed some of the limited games we had
Last year was not kind injury wise to us at all.

 

[Quigley]

If we are fully fit we would have only Payne in the reserves as a true key position. Fullarton is a maybe but even if you count him that is way too few. Our list is unbalanced at the moment.

 

[scoman]

I notice Matt Johnson the tall midfielder from WA tested very well in the agility test. Might not be quick but seems to have the size, athleticism and tricks to ensure he evades the tackler. Might become a Bont or Pendles type. Was happy to see that result and would be happy to draft him at either of our picks.

 

[John_Proctor]

Looking at pick swaps I don’t see any value for other teams in our later picks. The pies have the points for daicos with their first 4 picks and a swap with us would probably push back their first live pick. The dogs might need more points but the way their picks sit our picks don’t suit them either.

Our best bet to get some value out of 41/54/60 is probably to go for future 3rd and 4th rounders.

Adelaide, saints, dons, Port, Carlton all are likely to have late live picks this year and might want something in between. Maybe 54 (which could be something like 49 by the time the F/S bids wash out) to St Kilda for Adelaide's future 4th (would be maybe pick 55-60 next year) or if we thought we could get the prospect we want with pick 54 or 60 trade 41 to any of those teams for a future 3rd. It'll likely be pick 37/38 and at the start of round 3 this year - maybe for bombers, saints, port for their future 3rd rounder which is likely to be pick 42-48 next year (Port own Sydney's future 3rd not their own.).

I guess with live pick trading on the day we might be able to extract more value if a club wants a particular player sliding to that pick 41.

 

[Quigley]

I notice Matt Johnson the tall midfielder from WA tested very well in the agility test. Might not be quick but seems to have the size, athleticism and tricks to ensure he evades the tackler. Might become a Bont or Pendles type. Was happy to see that result and would be happy to draft him at either of our picks.

He also got third in the 2km at the WA trials which is also worth noting.

 

[scoman]

If we are fully fit we would have only Payne in the reserves as a true key position. Fullarton is a maybe but even if you count him that is way too few. Our list is unbalanced at the moment.

Ive been big on this too Quigley and feel we have to take a tall with one of our picks. I do though tend to agree that both pick 14 and 18 might be reaching a bit if it's for JVR and Bazzo. There is of course an outside chance (fairly remote) Mac Andrew or Amiss might slip to 14. Otherwise I'm happy to take mids and speedy types at 14 and 18 and hope Aller, Bazzo, Williams or Dean slips to 41. We could even try moving up into the second round with our last pick, although that might require a future pick.

 

[twhowler]

Ive been big on this too Quigley and feel we have to take a tall with one of our picks. I do though tend to agree that both pick 14 and 18 might be reaching a bit if it's for JVR and Bazzo. There is of course an outside chance (fairly remote) Mac Andrew or Amiss might slip to 14. Otherwise I'm happy to take mids and speedy types at 14 and 18 and hope Aller, Bazzo, Williams or Dean slips to 41. We could even try moving up into the second round with our last pick, although that might require a future pick.

I think we do need one tall, but a strong preference for the 195cm sort of tall rather than 200cm. Given Oscar and Fort can play forward at a stretch, and Henry Smith is a Ruck / Forward, the clear gap for mine is a 195cm defender. Pleasingly there are 3 of them in the top 30.

I am NOT a draft watcher so purely off the work of others...

Pick 14 - We would have to take Gibcus if he is somehow available. Best available mid next priority*

Pick 18 - If we took a mid at 14, Van Rooyen here, Bazzo if he is gone?

*The tricky thing would be if Gibcus is gone at 14, and we think Van Rooyen might be gone before 18, do we take Van Rooyen at 14? Or are we happy with Bazzo at 18?

All depends how we rate Bazzo. If we think he is a real stretch at 18 and not best available then taking Van Rooyen at 14 more likely.

Keen to hear any thoughts from our draft watchers on the 3 key defenders...?

 

[mpal6]

With Ballenden delisted you think we have to go tall with at least one of our picks. Maybe even two.

I'm thinking we could do best available at 14 and 18, dump all the intermediate picks for next year and then grab Jack Briskey as the last pick of the draft. Would Briskey be draft worthy?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I wonder how likely Gibcus is to get past GWS and Gold Coast. I can see GWS going for Mac Andrew and a smaller player, not sure if Gold Coast will pass up the opportunity to take a KPD though.

 

[jackess]

I'm thinking we could do best available at 14 and 18, dump all the intermediate picks for next year and then grab Jack Briskey as the last pick of the draft. Would Briskey be draft worthy?

Would rather redraft Ballenden. Briskey seemed way out of his depth at VFL level this year

 

[mattsmob]

I think we do need one tall, but a strong preference for the 195cm sort of tall rather than 200cm. Given Oscar and Fort can play forward at a stretch, and Henry Smith is a Ruck / Forward, the clear gap for mine is a 195cm defender. Pleasingly there are 3 of them in the top 30.

I am NOT a draft watcher so purely off the work of others...

Pick 14 - We would have to take Gibcus if he is somehow available. Best available mid next priority*

Pick 18 - If we took a mid at 14, Van Rooyen here, Bazzo if he is gone?

*The tricky thing would be if Gibcus is gone at 14, and we think Van Rooyen might be gone before 18, do we take Van Rooyen at 14? Or are we happy with Bazzo at 18?

All depends how we rate Bazzo. If we think he is a real stretch at 18 and not best available then taking Van Rooyen at 14 more likely.

Keen to hear any thoughts from our draft watchers on the 3 key defenders...?

I've been pretty vocal about how I view Bazzo and wouldn't have a problem taking him at 18, personally I'd be taking best available mid at 14, Bazzo at 18 and then there should be a couple good value outside mid/flanker at 41.
With Gibcus I don't think there's too big a difference between he and Bazzo, Gibcus is a much better athlete however Bazzo isn't a bad athlete and I think Bazzo's ball use and rebounding potential makes up for that.

 

[mattsmob]

I notice Matt Johnson the tall midfielder from WA tested very well in the agility test. Might not be quick but seems to have the size, athleticism and tricks to ensure he evades the tackler. Might become a Bont or Pendles type. Was happy to see that result and would be happy to draft him at either of our picks.

Agreed, I've really liked Johnson for a while, seems to stand up in the bigger games and always seems to be on the move around the contest and ground. Another thing that's impressed me is his aggression and tackling, he just looks like a really good all-round player with no many if any holes in his game.

 

[Dalions]

Agreed, I've really liked Johnson for a while, seems to stand up in the bigger games and always seems to be on the move around the contest and ground. Another thing that's impressed me is his aggression and tackling, he just looks like a really good all-round player with no many if any holes in his game.

I really like him and think I would prefer him over similarly sized Goater and Sinn.
Just really seems to have poise and execution. A little Bont like.

 

[bungalow_bill]

From what I'm reading there's a good chance Johnson doesn't make it to pick 14. Decent chance the Eagles snap him up

 

[mattsmob]

I really like him and think I would prefer him over similarly sized Goater and Sinn.
Just really seems to have poise and execution. A little Bont like.

I think I like him over Sinn and have him pretty close to Goater although Goater does have a very elite trait with his mix size and athleticism.

 

[briztoon]

If anyone is following the BigFooty phantom draft, all the top tier mids and flankers went by pick 12 (pick 14 after matched bids).

The only KPP to go at a live selection before pick 12 was Josh Gibcus to GWS at 4, with Mac Andrew then going at 13 to GWS.

The Lions drafter took Amiss at 14 (16) as his best available talent still on board.

Van Rooyen, Wilmot and Chesser went in the 3 picks between our selections.

At 18 (20) the Lions took Mitch Owens, out of St Kilda’s NGA academy.

And for anyone interested, the BF member selecting for the Lions used to work in the SA U18 State & National talent pathways, and now writes for AFL Draft Central. He knows his stuff.

I can genuinely see something similar happening at the draft.

 

[briztoon]

G'day Lions fans,

Just wondering whether you think the club might look at trading up in the first round or if you think they'd just prefer to stay where they are?

Depends on how much you’re willing to pay, and how much we rate the top 12 talents in this draft.

My offer would be 14 & 18 for your pick 9 and your future second and third round picks.

The carrot would be that we’re likely to draft Mitch Owens at pick 20 if the trade doesn’t go down.

 

[bird_man]

Depends on how much you’re willing to pay, and how much we rate the top 12 talents in this draft.

My offer would be 14 & 18 for your pick 9 and your future second and third round picks.

The carrot would be that we’re likely to draft Mitch Owens at pick 20 if the trade doesn’t go down.

Owens is part of the reason I'd contemplate it. Otherwise I'd probably prefer to keep the 9.

I'd have no issue with that deal as long as the Lions threw in one of those picks in the 60's for some extra points.

Having an extra 2nd and 3rd next year means you can no into next years trade period with your first on the table for a player and still have plenty of points for Ashcroft I guess

 

[briztoon]

Owens is part of the reason I'd contemplate it. Otherwise I'd probably prefer to keep the 9.

I'd have no issue with that deal as long as the Lions threw in one of those picks in the 50's for some extra points.

Having an extra 2nd and 3rd next year means you can no into next years trade period with your first on the table for a player and still have plenty of points for Ashcroft I guess

We can include pick 60, because we’re now taking pick 54 to the draft.

 

[bird_man]

We can include pick 60, because we’re now taking pick 54 to the draft.

Yeah I edited that. I thought you had two picks in the 50's.

Pick 60 would be very useful as it would rise to about 52 after the Daicos and Darcy bids.

 

[RoyBoy17]

I think Freo will take Amiss at one of their picks. I like Johnson at 14 but sounds like West Coast will select him. Can see us selecting Sinn and Owens in that order.

 

[blueiris]

Depends on how much you’re willing to pay, and how much we rate the top 12 talents in this draft.

My offer would be 14 & 18 for your pick 9 and your future second and third round picks.

The carrot would be that we’re likely to draft Mitch Owens at pick 20 if the trade doesn’t go down.

I haven’t seen enough of Owens to say if we’re definitely taking him at 20 would have loved to see some highlights