Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Hollow Knight]

Now the critics of the selection get to wait a few years and cherry pick which ever slider goes on to be a great player, and claim that is who they would have selected instead.

So yes, there is a much more cushy and unaccountable position than AFL recruiter… armchair draft “pundit”.

 

[scoman]

We did well to turn our two first round picks into a second and a third on the night. Well done team.
Burning picks and points like Goldy and GWS!

 

[spotthedog1]

Ah, the pointlessness of judging draft picks 30 seconds after they happen.

I'm not going to speak for everyone, but personally, I'm not judging the player. I think our recruiters have a good track record there and I'll be happy to see him pull on the jumper. If they think he's the player for us - great. I'm on board.

But I am judging our positioning. If it turns out 4 other clubs were looking at him in the early second, then fair enough. Our pick trading hasn't been great, and we don't maximise our draft capital well. Last year we stuffed the positioning with a bid right before our pick making our trades poor. In hindsight the Melbourne first rounder worked out badly, but at the time, I was satisfied with it. The various whispers and links seem to say that Kai has fans mid 2nd or 3rd round. Could we have traded back 10 or 15 picks? Bulldogs traded 23 for 32+34. Last pick of the first round with a few well-liked players on the board. No one willing to trade mid-2nd and a future 3rd to move up?

 

[The Zork]

Might of went even higher if he did have a highlights video.. who knows.

 

[jackess]

Unfortunately our recruiters haven't improved since the dark days. You can't argue they have.

 

[spotthedog1]

Cal Twomey's Draft Team of the Year - August:

Twomey's Draft Team of the Year: Falcons ball-magnet, SA mid among three changes

Check out draft guru Cal Twomey's updated Draft Team of the Year

www.afl.com.au

Another player who has taken the eye across the NAB League season has been Lohmann, an exciting half-forward who can also spend time in the midfield.

Last weekend he was based mainly in the attacking half where he booted two goals from 13 disposals and five tackles. The 185cm prospect has shown this season he is capable of producing eye-catching moments in the air for a player his size and he is equally dangerous at ground level.

Club recruiters have been watching Lohmann's progress closely and he has a knack of impacting games in a Rebels side that could have one of its most successful draft hauls for several years

 

[jackess]

Averaged a goal a game. Must've been a great season

 

[Hollow Knight]

Unfortunately our recruiters haven't improved since the dark days. You can't argue they have.

Following a subjective opinion with “You can’t argue…” doesn’t magically transmute it into a fact.

 

[martinson]

We sacrificed picking up a good highly rated prospect for a guy we could've , in all likelihood, picked up anyway.

Not knocking the kid or what sort of player he might turn out to be but our strategy seems clueless from the outside.

Obviously there are reasons for it all.

 

[dlanod]

Ah, the pointlessness of judging draft picks 30 seconds after they happen.

I'm so far ahead of the crowd I prejudged our picks two days ago.

I was happy with the first rounders but the player we take with pick 41 has me seriously pissed off.

 

[scoman]

I'm not going to speak for everyone, but personally, I'm not judging the player. I think our recruiters have a good track record there and I'll be happy to see him pull on the jumper. If they think he's the player for us - great. I'm on board.

But I am judging our positioning. If it turns out 4 other clubs were looking at him in the early second, then fair enough. Our pick trading hasn't been great, and we don't maximise our draft capital well. Last year we stuffed the positioning with a bid right before our pick making our trades poor. In hindsight the Melbourne first rounder worked out badly, but at the time, I was satisfied with it. The various whispers and links seem to say that Kai has fans mid 2nd or 3rd round. Could we have traded back 10 or 15 picks? Bulldogs traded 23 for 32+34. Last pick of the first round with a few well-liked players on the board. No one willing to trade mid-2nd and a future 3rd to move up?

Exactly, our inability to extract even break even value with our pick trading and positioning over the last period is a huge concern. Surely if we wanted Lohman we could have done the trade I suggested this evening with Richmond. 20 and 41 for 26 and 27 or whatever it ended up. I'm sure Richmond has an interest in at least one of Goater, Johnson, Butler, Sonsie, Draper or Motlop. Every chance we might of grabbed one of them as well as Lohman. Absolutely garbage management.

 

[JasRulz63]

Some teams with some pretty good track records with drafting who picked just before us (Richmond, Sydney, Melbourne) also decided to pass on Johnson, Goater etc.

 

[dlanod]

We sacrificed picking up a good highly rated prospect for a guy we could've , in all likelihood, picked up anyway.

At 41? That seems unlikely.

 

[dlanod]

Last time I was this surprised at us taking a bit of a bolter was Starcevich.

I'd be curious to see posters' reactions to that pick back then. I'm at least willing to fess up to my misjudgments.

 

[jackess]

In 3-4 years time what does our midfield look like? Lane, Clug, JBerry, Dev, Bailey, Ashcroft, Matho?, Sharp? Lohmann?

Really have to make the most of the next 1-2 seasons before the cliff comes

 

[BangyBangy]

Amazing how so many people on this board know exactly how many picks we could've traded back to pick up this kid.

He certainly wasn't the only bolter on the night. Clubs play their cards close to their chests.

Leading into the draft I read & heard so many recruiters saying that this draft will be one like no other. Well, here it is.

I guess we'll check back in two years to see how it went. Try to keep your powder dry until then.

 

[ZoBlitz]

I'm not going to speak for everyone, but personally, I'm not judging the player. I think our recruiters have a good track record there and I'll be happy to see him pull on the jumper. If they think he's the player for us - great. I'm on board.

But I am judging our positioning. If it turns out 4 other clubs were looking at him in the early second, then fair enough. Our pick trading hasn't been great, and we don't maximise our draft capital well. Last year we stuffed the positioning with a bid right before our pick making our trades poor. In hindsight the Melbourne first rounder worked out badly, but at the time, I was satisfied with it. The various whispers and links seem to say that Kai has fans mid 2nd or 3rd round. Could we have traded back 10 or 15 picks? Bulldogs traded 23 for 32+34. Last pick of the first round with a few well-liked players on the board. No one willing to trade mid-2nd and a future 3rd to move up?

The thing is that we're not working with enough knowledge to make any real judgements on a lot of that - we don't know how Kai was rated by other clubs, we don't know whether we did try and make trades to change our position etc..

People tend to worry too much about min-maxing the draft at times when in the end it's about bringing in the players you rate. In the end we rated Kai higher than a bunch of other guys that the media did rate and that may or may turn out to be a good decision but I think even with questions of positioning you can't really judge until further along the line.

For reference, look at the discussion thread about the 2017 draft and people were complaining about us taking Bailey at 15 instead of leaving him to 18 and going "who?" about picking Starcevich.

Stress less now basically, meltdown in three years (if necessary).

 

[POBT]

If you wrote a job description for a long term Linc McCarthy replacement, Kai Lohmann would tick every box.

 

[SizeMatters]

So many posters who think they are in the know... **** me dead. Who isn't to say he would have went pick cats or dogs in early second round which he fits thier type of player?

Also we can still package first rounder next near + 41 for 20 or 21 and pick up a ''slider''.

Lohmann sounds exactly what we need. Posters complain about a boring draft where we take vanilla players like JVR yet we pick up someone who is excitement machine and the lids go off. Laughable.

 

[Tom14]

Still can't believe we gave up pick 12 rather than pick 18 for Charlie Cameron

23

Charlie Cameron

Age

30

Ht

180cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.6

2star

K

7.9

3star

HB

1.7

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.2

4star

 

[jackess]

Last time I was this surprised at us taking a bit of a bolter was Starcevich.

I'd be curious to see posters' reactions to that pick back then. I'm at least willing to fess up to my misjudgments.

At least he had a highlights video and he was the 7th first round selection we had over a 3 year period. Not the third in 4 years

 

[LIONS08]

Wilmot looked absolutely stoked to be drafted by us!! I don’t get the criticism of our recruiting team. Bailey and Starc were at a ‘stretch’ from memory and look how they turned out!!

 

[Mighty Lions]

Apparently this guy is good mates with Tom Berry.

Naaah, wrong team mate..... best mates with Harry Sharp. Tom Berry not in the same ear of junior footy.

 

[dlanod]

If you wrote a job description for a long term Linc McCarthy replacement, Kai Lohmann would tick every box.

I'm surprised his weaknesses never seem to include endurance or anything because his strengths make him sound like the prototypical impact mid.

 

[martinson]

At 41? That seems unlikely.

We had other options to work it all out.

Besides would anyone have been surprised if he was still there at 41 ?

I'm not going the throat on it ,I just think we don't seemed to have got the best out of our situation. We'll know in time.