No Oppo Supporters 2021 General AFL Discussion

[BloodySwan]

Another under 14,000 home crowd under cover for Norf. Crows fans were well represented. Even when they were moderately successful the Roos attracted boutique levels of support.

I really respect Noble but he just does not have the cattle at his disposal. No doubt they will pick up a win or two but it is very difficult to see how their crowds will increase.

For years they have tried to throw money at players from other Clubs, including ours. The only players they attract are those at the end of their careers like Waite or payday hunters like Polec (allegedly on $700Kpa).

I really feel for Phillips and a couple of their other youngsters. Of their older brigade, Goldstein is a try his heart out warrior. There is nothing else.

Should they:
* amalgamate with a Vic Club and allow for a Tas team;
* move to Tassie and get lots of help; or
* continue as a stand alone Club that few support???

Thoughts?***

*** Admit to bias. I want to see Norf fold while Aylett is still alive.

It really comes down to whether they can stay profitable. So long as they don't need the AFL to bail them out who cares if they get 18k or 1k to a match?

AFL should introduce a soft cap floor just as they do with the players salary cap.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I know it's been discussed somewhere else, but I'd like to go on record that I hate the SCG playing "Oh Errol" after Gulden goals or does something special.

Played 4 games and gets his own song?? Talk about adding pressure to the kid. Or potentially building up his ego forcing selfish play. Not to mention it could alienate all the other players that bust their gut. Yeah, Gulden made a great play and got the hard ball get, but Florent still slotted it from 50 on the run.

That is so cringey and dumb can we get it to stop?

 

[Tedeski]

Geelong are cooked

Don't know how tenable Chris Scott's position is when he's constantly a mouth piece for the players association, critical of his work conditions and getting distracted by comments about his hair. Like, are you trying to win a premiership or bring about industry change and come to terms with the fact you hate your job.

Seems like a conflicting message when you want young men to fly the colours longer and harder than the rest.

But apparently he's a good bloke.

 

[Tedeski]

Collingwood are broken.
Trading week into racism review into injuries to key personnel.

Not to mention a 7 year $7M contract to a bloke who doesn't place premierships high on his list in an AFL career.
Quality list management.

 

[Tedeski]

I know it's been discussed somewhere else, but I'd like to go on record that I hate the SCG playing "Oh Errol" after Gulden goals or does something special.

Played 4 games and gets his own song?? Talk about adding pressure to the kid. Or potentially building up his ego forcing selfish play. Not to mention it could alienate all the other players that bust their gut. Yeah, Gulden made a great play and got the hard ball get, but Florent still slotted it from 50 on the run.

Ohh I don't know about that.

I'd give anything just to be like him.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Not to mention a 7 year $7M contract to a bloke who doesn't place premierships high on his list in an AFL career.
Quality list management.

plus megabucks to De Goey who may be the biggest bogan on an AFL list.

 

[Tedeski]

* amalgamate with a Vic Club and allow for a Tas team;
* move to Tassie

This.
I nominate Hawthorn

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

If the most we have to complain about is a song (unless it is the execrable Sweet Caroline) we are trundling along ok!

 

[caesar88]

I am regularly subjected to watching Fremantle play every second week, and they are just consistently average. Yesterday was no exception. But it was the first time I got to watch Hawthorn live and oh boy... Has there been a list management strategy that has paid off less than Hawthorn's trade bonanza?

 

[Syd]

I am regularly subjected to watching Fremantle play every second week, and they are just consistently average. Yesterday was no exception. But it was the first time I got to watch Hawthorn live and oh boy... Has there been a list management strategy that has paid off less than Hawthorn's trade bonanza?

Norf says 'hold my beer'

 

[Jewelsbon]

As much as Norf are a basket case, I think Ziebell and Cunnington are still players to be admired.

Admired for their loyalty at least, how they have remained with that rabble of a club is beyond me.

 

[caesar88]

Norf says 'hold my beer'

I didn't even know North had a strategy

 

[momentbymoment]

Not to mention a 7 year $7M contract to a bloke who doesn't place premierships high on his list in an AFL career.
Quality list management.

I can’t prove it, but I just know that Sydney’s Buddy contract was in the back of Eddies mind when he approved this.
Hehehehe

 

[SwansProudly]

This really surprises me, given the free differential that the Swans are usually bottom 4.
We have had 2 away and 2 home games so no home ground advantage of fans influencing umpiring decisions
So is this
- our change of game style, not committing players into clearances, but playing more outside runners?
- the young Bloods- running free?

Last year's grand finalists on the bottom!

Check out the frees for, against and differential ladder below.

Position	Club	Frees For	Frees Against	Differential
1	Adelaide	102	77	25
2	W.Bulldogs	88	67	21
3	GWS	98	80	18
4	Sydney	98	81	17
5	West Coast	83	66	17
6	Carlton	91	81	10
7	North Melbourne	94	89	5
8	Gold Coast	79	75	4
9	Melbourne	78	75	3
10	Essendon	83	82	1
11	Port Adelaide	84	86	-2
12	Collingwood	84	88	-4
13	Fremantle	78	86	-8
14	Hawthorn	74	86	-12
15	Brisbane	78	98	-20
16	St Kilda	68	89	-21
17	Geelong	74	101	-27
18	Richmond	67	94	-27

Players with the most frees:

Player	Club	Frees For
Toby Greene	GWS	16
Patrick Cripps	CAR	13
Joel Selwood	GEE	13
Peter Wright	ESS	10
Taylor Walker	ADE	10

The 2021 free kick ladder after four rounds

Frees for, against and overall differential.

www.sen.com.au

 

[Ticky009]

Definitely think the style of play is impacting the free count

 

[Dubai Quacker]

I am regularly subjected to watching Fremantle play every second week, and they are just consistently average. Yesterday was no exception. But it was the first time I got to watch Hawthorn live and oh boy... Has there been a list management strategy that has paid off less than Hawthorn's trade bonanza?

Not yet - but Geelong’s Zimmer frame army is about to fall off an almighty cliff.

 

[Mathelios]

This really surprises me, given the free differential that the Swans are usually bottom 4.
We have had 2 away and 2 home games so no home ground advantage of fans influencing umpiring decisions
So is this
- our change of game style, not committing players into clearances, but playing more outside runners?
- the young Bloods- running free?

Last year's grand finalists on the bottom!

Check out the frees for, against and differential ladder below.

Position	Club	Frees For	Frees Against	Differential
1	Adelaide	102	77	25
2	W.Bulldogs	88	67	21
3	GWS	98	80	18
4	Sydney	98	81	17
5	West Coast	83	66	17
6	Carlton	91	81	10
7	North Melbourne	94	89	5
8	Gold Coast	79	75	4
9	Melbourne	78	75	3
10	Essendon	83	82	1
11	Port Adelaide	84	86	-2
12	Collingwood	84	88	-4
13	Fremantle	78	86	-8
14	Hawthorn	74	86	-12
15	Brisbane	78	98	-20
16	St Kilda	68	89	-21
17	Geelong	74	101	-27
18	Richmond	67	94	-27

Players with the most frees:

Player	Club	Frees For
Toby Greene	GWS	16
Patrick Cripps	CAR	13
Joel Selwood	GEE	13
Peter Wright	ESS	10
Taylor Walker	ADE	10

The 2021 free kick ladder after four rounds

Frees for, against and overall differential.

www.sen.com.au

I looked into this the other day a bit as we seem to have won more free kicks this year (with the exception of the adelaide game) and have also won every contested possession count. There is some data that suggests winning contested ball increases your chance of winning a free kick count, but its a fairly weak correlation (winning CP by 13 = 1 extra free kick on average). Unless of course you are the Western Bulldogs in 2016.

This article includes data from 1999-2016 so is not completely up to date, but it also states that the most common predictor for winning a free kick count is being west coast and playing at home (no surprises really). Western Bulldogs not far behind.

Do teams that win contested ball win more free kicks?

Yes, but the relationship is weak and noisy.

thearcfooty.com

 

[momentbymoment]

This really surprises me, given the free differential that the Swans are usually bottom 4.
We have had 2 away and 2 home games so no home ground advantage of fans influencing umpiring decisions
So is this
- our change of game style, not committing players into clearances, but playing more outside runners?
- the young Bloods- running free?

Last year's grand finalists on the bottom!

Check out the frees for, against and differential ladder below.

Position	Club	Frees For	Frees Against	Differential
1	Adelaide	102	77	25
2	W.Bulldogs	88	67	21
3	GWS	98	80	18
4	Sydney	98	81	17
5	West Coast	83	66	17
6	Carlton	91	81	10
7	North Melbourne	94	89	5
8	Gold Coast	79	75	4
9	Melbourne	78	75	3
10	Essendon	83	82	1
11	Port Adelaide	84	86	-2
12	Collingwood	84	88	-4
13	Fremantle	78	86	-8
14	Hawthorn	74	86	-12
15	Brisbane	78	98	-20
16	St Kilda	68	89	-21
17	Geelong	74	101	-27
18	Richmond	67	94	-27

Players with the most frees:

Player	Club	Frees For
Toby Greene	GWS	16
Patrick Cripps	CAR	13
Joel Selwood	GEE	13
Peter Wright	ESS	10
Taylor Walker	ADE	10

The 2021 free kick ladder after four rounds

Frees for, against and overall differential.

www.sen.com.au

Fantastic news.
A bad free kick differential really screws up the game momentum.

 

[caesar88]

Not yet - but Geelong’s Zimmer frame army is about to fall off an almighty cliff.

Geelong hearing that Kade Simpson is open to coming out of retirement

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I looked into this the other day a bit as we seem to have won more free kicks this year (with the exception of the adelaide game) and have also won every contested possession count. There is some data that suggests winning contested ball increases your chance of winning a free kick count, but its a fairly weak correlation (winning CP by 13 = 1 extra free kick on average). Unless of course you are the Western Bulldogs in 2016.

This article includes data from 1999-2016 so is not completely up to date, but it also states that the most common predictor for winning a free kick count is being west coast and playing at home (no surprises really). Western Bulldogs not far behind.

Do teams that win contested ball win more free kicks?

Yes, but the relationship is weak and noisy.

thearcfooty.com

I did a 20 year analysis of free kick counts. I was trying to prove there was a Vic bias against swans. Did. In the process there was bias in the other direction for west coast winning the free kick count. Turns out that it was somewhat aligned to the AFL policy to use domestic WA umpires to handle WA games (because of travel cost) there was a bias in favour of West Coast by west coast umpires enough to have them benefit statistically evident bias outcomes. Unintentional subconscious bias it seems. Same thing worked against the swans in being subconsciously affected by Vic biased umpires. Or that notable outcome with western Bulldogs when we were punished by the 'brave dogs' bias in GF

As to why we are experiencing a positive bias now I'm thinking it's more to do with youth. noticed the other night that the umpires seemed to be protecting the young first year swans from being hurt and bullied by mature full aged opposition. Just a theory of course.

We are all affected by these subconscious biases. Can't be denied because it is subconscious. Make no doubt it happens

 

[anotherletdown]

Worpol has dropped of so much

Not up to it

He was always a limited player, just took the comp a while to realise it. The hype didnt help him

Not enough tools in the kit bag and not equipped to evolve into something better.

 

[anotherletdown]

As much as Norf are a basket case, I think Ziebell and Cunnington are still players to be admired.

For their loyalty to that shit show?

Surely cant be football reasons

 

[BloodySwan]

I looked into this the other day a bit as we seem to have won more free kicks this year (with the exception of the adelaide game) and have also won every contested possession count. There is some data that suggests winning contested ball increases your chance of winning a free kick count, but its a fairly weak correlation (winning CP by 13 = 1 extra free kick on average). Unless of course you are the Western Bulldogs in 2016.

This article includes data from 1999-2016 so is not completely up to date, but it also states that the most common predictor for winning a free kick count is being west coast and playing at home (no surprises really). Western Bulldogs not far behind.

Do teams that win contested ball win more free kicks?

Yes, but the relationship is weak and noisy.

thearcfooty.com

When you are awarded a free kick, that possession is recorded as a contested possession.

Stats glossary: Every stat explained

Brush up on your statistical knowledge with our glossary

www.afl.com.au

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

If the most we have to complain about is a song (unless it is the execrable Sweet Caroline) we are trundling along ok!

oh well the lack of cause for concern evaporated quickly.

 

[SwansProudly]

Still hope for McInerney, Stephens, McDonald

ADELAIDE young gun Lachie Sholl has become the 12th player to be nominated for the NAB AFL Rising Star twice after his dominant performance against North Melbourne on Sunday.

Young Crow picks up second Rising Star nomination

Adelaide's Lachie Sholl is the round four NAB AFL Rising Star

www.afl.com.au