Analysis 2021 trade thread

[briztoon]

Would seem like the late picks we have this year either don't have as much value as we'd hoped or we missed our chance to help out the teams that need points for bidding.

Pretty much what I said weeks ago.

 

[jackess]

Pretty much what I said weeks ago.

And you had an issue at me saying you try to setup opportunities to post "I told you so"

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Would seem like the late picks we have this year either don't have as much value as we'd hoped or we missed our chance to help out the teams that need points for bidding.

Pretty much because too many teams are looking to get higher up the draft.

 

[Elixuh]

It’s why I always take the last day of trade week off work - most exciting day of the year.

 

[Section 5]

Would seem like the late picks we have this year either don't have as much value as we'd hoped or we missed our chance to help out the teams that need points for bidding.

Still time after trade period ends to adjust the club's draft possession
It could be for this year or the next

Last year their were 19 "trade for draft picks" after the trade period
Brisbane were involved in 4 of those

 

[briztoon]

What's the supposed mail on next year's draft talent? We are shaping to have a few de-lists, maybe 5-6, so hoping it's a strong one.

At this stage, discussion from the AFL Draft Central writers is that it currently looks like there’s a top 5, then a big group of quality kids. View is there’s more depth through that second group, than in this year’s draft. A lot more KPP talent. Possibly the strongest ruck crop we’ve seen in years.

There were some U17 Championship games in earlier this year, so clubs and draft watchers have seen the top kids in each state. And quite a few of the top U17 SA & WA kids played in the last couple of SA v WA U19 challenge games. There were also a couple of SA v WA U17 challenge games. The Lions and Suns academies played a couple of games as well, and we’ve seen a lot of the SA and WA kids at Colts level. So we’ve seen most of the kids except for the NSW kids this year.

 

[briztoon]

And you had an issue at me saying you try to setup opportunities to post "I told you so"

I wasn’t setting up an opportunity to say “I told you so”.

I was giving my opinion of where our draft picks sat, whether they had any value, etc. It was within a discussion.

Heaps of posters here discuss different stuff every day. Heaps of posters would have the chance to say “I told you so”. Heaps of posters here do say “I told you so” in one form or another.

No one bats an eyelid at it. So why single me out for it?

If you didn’t make your post, I wouldn’t have replied with my comment.

 

[M Malice]

Is there anything definitive in terms of comments from Ashcroft or is Dad about him nominating for us under F/S?

What's the supposed mail on next year's draft talent? We are shaping to have a few de-lists, maybe 5-6, so hoping it's a strong one.

Nothing I've heard but most of the time an official announcement is made pretty late, I think the Lions would have a very good idea re what Will will do.

Haven't you heard it's a super draft and teetering on the precipice of a SUPER DUPER draft.

 

[blueiris]

I thought Dunstan might have been an option if Neale went and we couldn't land a FA or used Neales cap space to target someone next year. But he's not in the team with both Lyons and Neale.

Feel we would have gone Tom Mitchell if Neale left

 

[BangyBangy]

So pre trade period there was a fair bit in the media about St Kilda, Richmond & Hawthorn eager to get more picks in the first round.

Clearly it isn't the easiest thing to do when everyone is trying to do the same. Even to the extent that Freo are holding firm onto pick 19 & Geelong won't agree to pick 22. They may well trade pick 19, but it won't be until that first night of the draft I think.

A few opportunities might arise on draft night, but you'll be paying a premium that's for sure.

I think the Saints have chosen a bad year to want to load up in the draft again. Picks 9, 62, 66, 67, & 85 is not a winning hand.

 

[mattsmob]

I think the Saints have chosen a bad year to want to load up in the draft again. Picks 9, 62, 66, 67, & 85 is not a winning hand.

Just on the Saints, they’ve got two NGA kids this year pushing the top 30, one of them potentially the top 20 which would mean they miss out. I’m assuming they’ve stocked those late picks for points only. They could be one club that might be interested in splitting 9 for a couple late firsts which could be interesting for us. Personally I’d be offering pick 18 and our future first for 9 and maybe a future 2nd/3rd. Most likely a trade like that won’t happen until draft night when we see who’s still on the board but we could be in a good position to threaten to take one of their NGA kids before they can match.

 

[briztoon]

Just on the Saints, they’ve got two NGA kids this year pushing the top 30, one of them potentially the top 20 which would mean they miss out. I’m assuming they’ve stocked those late picks for points only. They could be one club that might be interested in splitting 9 for a couple late firsts which could be interesting for us. Personally I’d be offering pick 18 and our future first for 9 and maybe a future 2nd/3rd. Most likely a trade like that won’t happen until draft night when we see who’s still on the board but we could be in a good position to threaten to take one of their NGA kids before they can match.

I like the strong arm tactic with St Kilda. Particularly since we’re possibly the team rumoured to be interested in Owens.

But if they’re trading pick 9, they’re going to want both 14 and 18. At best, it would be pick 14 and our future first. They shouldn’t be giving us anything else back if it’s 18 and our future first round pick.

 

[David C]

Would seem like the late picks we have this year either don't have as much value as we'd hoped or we missed our chance to help out the teams that need points for bidding.

I think StK are still looking for lower picks and Essendon might trade out a future 1st if we want to go down that route. Expecting the doggies and pies picks in the 20's to get moved on as well.

Feel we would have gone Tom Mitchell if Neale left

Would have been the logical move I think.

 

[mattsmob]

I like the strong arm tactic with St Kilda. Particularly since we’re possibly the team rumoured to be interested in Owens.

But if they’re trading pick 9, they’re going to want both 14 and 18. At best, it would be pick 14 and our future first. They shouldn’t be giving us anything else back if it’s 18 and our future first round pick.

Yeah probably true, if there’s any chance we could do it without including 14 that’d be ideal. Also never know what’ll happen under the pressure of draft night, especially if they’re committed to trying to get Owens.

 

[spotthedog1]

Pick 18 is a fascinating one this year. Will be pick 20 on draft night - the last pick you can grab an opposing academy player. This may be worth nothing or a lot, depending on the noise around.

If we're shrewd, we hold on to it, talk to teams about their preferred academy players from other clubs, and see who is keen to jump up. To grab maybe a Fahey (GWS) or an Owens (StK), as examples. Then talk to the club they're looking to snipe, and offer them pick 20. If Owens is available, and someone wants him at 20, then to the Saints, getting Pick 20 means that they will get pick 20 plus Owens, instead of Owens and a late pick. For them to get a bonus pick 20, that's a lot of value, which we can share with them as facilitator...

 

[JasRulz63]

Pick 18 is a fascinating one this year. Will be pick 20 on draft night - the last pick you can grab an opposing academy player. This may be worth nothing or a lot, depending on the noise around.

If we're shrewd, we hold on to it, talk to teams about their preferred academy players from other clubs, and see who is keen to jump up. To grab maybe a Fahey (GWS) or an Owens (StK), as examples. Then talk to the club they're looking to snipe, and offer them pick 20. If Owens is available, and someone wants him at 20, then to the Saints, getting Pick 20 means that they will get pick 20 plus Owens, instead of Owens and a late pick. For them to get a bonus pick 20, that's a lot of value, which we can share with them as facilitator...

Fahey doesn't fit under the new rules (the northern academies were exempt from the rule changes), but I agree with regards to your point re Owens (or potentially Windhager). Just needs one club to rate him highly with the assets to do it.

 

[mattsmob]

Pick 18 is a fascinating one this year. Will be pick 20 on draft night - the last pick you can grab an opposing academy player. This may be worth nothing or a lot, depending on the noise around.

If we're shrewd, we hold on to it, talk to teams about their preferred academy players from other clubs, and see who is keen to jump up. To grab maybe a Fahey (GWS) or an Owens (StK), as examples. Then talk to the club they're looking to snipe, and offer them pick 20. If Owens is available, and someone wants him at 20, then to the Saints, getting Pick 20 means that they will get pick 20 plus Owens, instead of Owens and a late pick. For them to get a bonus pick 20, that's a lot of value, which we can share with them as facilitator...

Melbourne winning the premiership was all apart of the plan, another shrewd move by the list management team, just a step ahead of the game.

 

[lioninthesand]

Is there anything definitive in terms of comments from Ashcroft or is Dad about him nominating for us under F/S?

I am pretty sure he is no longer eligible for Suns academy because they shifted to Melbourne.

Fletcher Jnr sounds quite likely given his dad has moved back to Queensland.

Given cap / list issues this year was only ever going to be one in which we tread water in terms of established players. Darcy Fort would be a sensible pick-up and seems to have some untapped ability.

We have had plenty of established players come in over the past 5 years. Time for a young talent top-up with 14/18/Ashcroft. With some luck we might have some cap space for a decent free agent next year, even if it's only a 400-500k sort of player. Depends what we feel we need by then (dependent on which young players have come on) and who is available.

What's the supposed mail on next year's draft talent? We are shaping to have a few de-lists, maybe 5-6, so hoping it's a strong one.

This is purely word of mouth, take it or leave it. I spoke to a student who is in his year at highschool and he said he is 100% going to the Lions. Apparently Its common knowledge amongst students and teachers that’s his pathway. This person said he has heard first hand him discussing the fact he will be coming up to Brisbane next year to do training blocks with us etc.

He spent a good chunk of his teenage years up there and has a decent network in QLD I believe, must like the sunshine and perhaps the idea of following in his Dads footsteps.

Fingers crossed.

 

[bungalow_bill]

I like the strong arm tactic with St Kilda. Particularly since we’re possibly the team rumoured to be interested in Owens.

But if they’re trading pick 9, they’re going to want both 14 and 18. At best, it would be pick 14 and our future first. They shouldn’t be giving us anything else back if it’s 18 and our future first round pick.

Wait until draft night and if Goater is still there and unlikely to fall to 14 do we do it?
Is Goater worth the quality kid we'll still get at 14 + a 2022 pick in the mid teens?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Wait until draft night and if Goater is still there and unlikely to fall to 14 do we do it?
Is Goater worth the quality kid we'll still get at 14 + a 2022 pick in the mid teens?

I would say yes, unless we really rate JVR who will make it to 14 but probably not 18. Sinn and Chesser might be around at 14, but we can always get another half-back at 18.

St Kilda's pick is a good one to acquire, because I feel we'll have to get above Essendon to get Goater. He's a local boy who has played a VFL game for them.

 

[spotthedog1]

Fahey doesn't fit under the new rules (the northern academies were exempt from the rule changes), but I agree with regards to your point re Owens (or potentially Windhager). Just needs one club to rate him highly with the assets to do it.

Yep, you're right. Missed that aspect. Thanks.

 

[briztoon]

Wait until draft night and if Goater is still there and unlikely to fall to 14 do we do it?
Is Goater worth the quality kid we'll still get at 14 + a 2022 pick in the mid teens?

We don’t want to trade in to the first round of 2022, unless we’re then on trading that pick in to 2023, because it’ll get eaten up in matching an Ashcroft bid.

 

[blueiris]

Cal Twomey just StKilda would be looking to trade pick 9(11) to get more picks in the first round and suggested the Lions at 14 and 18 not sure I’d do that trade for pick 11

 

[martinson]

Cal Twomey just StKilda would be looking to trade pick 9(11) to get more picks in the first round and suggested the Lions at 14 and 18 not sure I’d do that trade for pick 11

Na. Who's to say 11 will turn out any better than 14 or 18. Only scenario would be if we had someone we absolutely had to have who won't get to 14 but not under 10. Risky business.

 

[mikey127]

Gotta say I haven't minded s boring trade period from us. Says our list is on good shape