Analysis 2021 trade thread

[dlanod]

4 years development that occured before we drafted him.

I might not have explained myself well but you’re kind of proving my point.

Your repeated point over the last few months has been "Lane and Smith aren't going to be good so they should be delisted".

You're making this proclamation when they're of an age that our last two rucks weren't even in the AFL.

If someone showed you footage of Oscar or Stef at the same age, I doubt you'd be complementary of their AFL ruck prospects.

So nah, not proving that point. Lane and Smith may turn out to be delisting bait, but your definitive and repeated opinion that we should delist them based off a few months in an AFL environment can't be based of some real insight you have based off their play. The most likely cause for them to be delisted this early will be lack of effort or inability to be coached and thankfully you're not making any claims to that effect.

I know you love to shift goalposts when challenged on a POV, so I did note the shift to saying stuff like "well they'll just leave anyway". Most of the ones that do are average at best - after all they're by definition not good enough to beat out a potentially middling ruck in the seniors. Developing the ruck in-house makes them more likely to stay in-house after that development. In our case since Oscar was a mature option Lane would be about the right age to step right in, if he develops like would be hoped. If he doesn't, then we get to keep trying to find a similar prospect?

 

[jackess]

Your repeated point over the last few months has been "Lane and Smith aren't going to be good so they should be delisted".

You're making this proclamation when they're of an age that our last two rucks weren't even in the AFL.

If someone showed you footage of Oscar or Stef at the same age, I doubt you'd be complementary of their AFL ruck prospects.

So nah, not proving that point. Lane and Smith may turn out to be delisting bait, but your definitive and repeated opinion that we should delist them based off a few months in an AFL environment can't be based of some real insight you have based off their play. The most likely cause for them to be delisted this early will be lack of effort or inability to be coached and thankfully you're not making any claims to that effect.

I know you love to shift goalposts when challenged on a POV, so I did note the shift to saying stuff like "well they'll just leave anyway". Most of the ones that do are average at best - after all they're by definition not good enough to beat out a potentially middling ruck in the seniors. Developing the ruck in-house makes them more likely to stay in-house after that development. In our case since Oscar was a mature option Lane would be about the right age to step right in, if he develops like would be hoped. If he doesn't, then we get to keep trying to find a similar prospect?

Thats 3 different issues; 1 I don’t rate them, 2 there’s no point sinking years of investment in them unless you think they’re going to be something special and 3 is especially dumb to sink several years into 2 of them. If as most believe that the majority of rucks are poor at 18-22 then why waste a list spot on them?

We’re going back to the Schache argument that because established most key forwards struggled at 20 then the struggling, current 20 year old key forwards will likely end up as good key forwards.

It’s not shifting the goal posts if you have 2 different but not conflicting opinions on a topic like our ruck stocks

 

[Johnny Bananas]

He was best 22 in his second season

Oscar was four years older than Smith and Lane currently are.

 

[BangyBangy]

I know most boring trade period ever

Yeah agree. Nowhere near as exciting as the 2013 trade period

 

[Dalions]

Yeah agree. Nowhere near as exciting as the 2013 trade period

It is pretty shit!

 

[martinson]

Usually people are referencing current trends - sorry, it wasn't obvious you only meant premiership teams by using "successful" instead of "premiership". Top 8 seems a reasonable marker for success, hence why I bothered looking through those teams.

Using premiership teams:

• Zero rucks - Bulldogs 2016
• One ruck - Richmond 2020, Richmond 2017
• One and a half rucks - West Coast 2018, Hawthorn 2013-2015
• Two rucks - Richmond 2019

Hale and Vardy probably fit into what you'd consider two rucks if you're arguing that premiership teams use them, but three out of the last five premiership teams didn't fit this pigeonhole - Hawthorn's threepeat using Hale throws out the stats a bit and arguably was in a different evolution of game style given their use of pure rucks like Bailey.

Fair enough. I don't agree in totality with your summation of the ruck stocks of those sides but just a moot point. If you have 2 good rucks you play them. Particularly if one of them is capable of marking when not rucking. Melbourne now have the luxury of resting Gawn on the ground , rather than on the bench if they so choose. They're an extreme case, but in our situation we were found out this year with very little help for Oscar resulting in him getting tired which is perhaps why he chose to manouvre rather than front on jump in that last ruck contest . Which probably cost us a spot in a PF. In hindsight.

 

[dlanod]

We’re going back to the Schache argument that because established most key forwards struggled at 20 then the struggling, current 20 year old key forwards will likely end up as good key forwards.

Nope. We're going back to the argument that "it's too early to tell whether they're good or bad", therefore anyone making broad claims to either is about as unfounded as the other.

 

[dlanod]

Fair enough. I don't agree in totality with your summation of the ruck stocks of those sides but just a moot point. If you have 2 good rucks you play them. Particularly if one of them is capable of marking when not rucking. Melbourne now have the luxury of resting Gawn on the ground , rather than on the bench if they so choose. They're an extreme case, but in our situation we were found out this year with very little help for Oscar resulting in him getting tired which is perhaps why he chose to manouvre rather than front on jump in that last ruck contest . Which probably cost us a spot in a PF. In hindsight.

Funnily enough I tend to agree with your broad thesis, just not how many teams actually manage to pull it off.

A player that can be an effective forward and an adequate ruckman (Hale, Vardy-ish) is gold. A player that can be an effective ruckman and effective at any other position is platinum (Grundy - mid, Jackson - forward). If you have either of those kinds of players you absolutely play them and they give you a massive edge. The problem is that those are few and fair between, and too many people focus on the idea of these kinds of players rather than the actual players that let you achieve it.

Playing two rucks where neither are effective in a secondary role is a lot less successful plan, which is why you see very few effective clubs attempt it - they'd rather play one ruck and make do with someone else because that someone else is going to be able to have a larger impact on the game in the 80% of the time they're not in the ruck.

This is also probably why we're seeing Smith being trained up forward rather than the ruck - if you're big and willing to contest a ruck contest (unlike Daniher or Ballenden), that's all that's needed out of that 20% of the time if you're also an effective forward.

If we wanted to use two rucks, the best opportunity is to move Oscar back forward because he is that "golden" player I mentioned earlier, while also being a credible starting ruckman. However that means one of our tall forwards drop out so unless we're trading off a McStay or a Hipwood to bring in the new ruck someone's stuck in the reserves and most likely leaving after that year. Secondly, we'd have to get a ruck that is definitely better than Oscar for it to be an improvement and there's really only a handful that are unambiguously better - and all are cemented into their team.

 

[martinson]

Funnily enough I tend to agree with your broad thesis, just not how many teams actually manage to pull it off.

A player that can be an effective forward and an adequate ruckman (Hale, Vardy-ish) is gold. A player that can be an effective ruckman and effective at any other position is platinum (Grundy - mid, Jackson - forward). If you have either of those kinds of players you absolutely play them and they give you a massive edge. The problem is that those are few and fair between, and too many people focus on the idea of these kinds of players rather than the actual players that let you achieve it.

Playing two rucks where neither are effective in a secondary role is a lot less successful plan, which is why you see very few effective clubs attempt it - they'd rather play one ruck and make do with someone else because that someone else is going to be able to have a larger impact on the game in the 80% of the time they're not in the ruck.

This is also probably why we're seeing Smith being trained up forward rather than the ruck - if you're big and willing to contest a ruck contest (unlike Daniher or Ballenden), that's all that's needed out of that 20% of the time if you're also an effective forward.

If we wanted to use two rucks, the best opportunity is to move Oscar back forward because he is that "golden" player I mentioned earlier, while also being a credible starting ruckman. However that means one of our tall forwards drop out so unless we're trading off a McStay or a Hipwood to bring in the new ruck someone's stuck in the reserves and most likely leaving after that year. Secondly, we'd have to get a ruck that is definitely better than Oscar for it to be an improvement and there's really only a handful that are unambiguously better - and all are cemented into their team.

I understand and agree with that. My original proposition was that if you have two capable ruckmen, or one good one and another one who can ruck and fill in in another role for extra minutes on the ground it's a no brainer . Even within our current structure. Because Hipwood if he plays, McStay particularly and even Daniher can get around the ground and have an impact. I think Oscar definitely will need more support. We tried a few things this year which really didn't work in the end . I've had a look at the vision of Fort and whilst it's impossible to tell whether he's really up to it or not he seems a decent enough tap ruckman who actually jumps and tries to direct the ball and doesn't look like a log around the ground or in the forward line. So he could really help.

 

[Sanchez365]

Irrespective of the number of rucks on our list, I think the idea of having say Osar play forward where he is quite capable, and then bringing in another center bounce ruckman like Fort could be really strong for our game.

It's a but of a feelscraft statement, but it seemed like we tended to lose ascendancy in the middle of the ground when Oscar was taken out of there, either for Danniher or Fullerton at different times.

More midfield dominance equates to more dominant field position. It's a bit of a doubling down on our strength, and I don't hate the idea that much.

Let's deal with the too many talls problem if it occurs later In the season.

 

[Surly Boy]

So many deals, so little time: Which trades will get done before deadline?

With only a few days left of the Continental Tyres Trade Period, there are a few deals yet to be done

www.afl.com.au

Darcy Fort
Brisbane has identified Fort as the ruck support they want for 2022 next to Oscar McInerney

46

Oscar Mcinerney

Age

30

Ht

205cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.1

2star

K

4.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

CL

1.4

4star

HO

14.3

5star

D

6.9

1star

K

4.1

2star

HB

2.7

2star

CL

1.9

4star

HO

16.4

5star

D

7.6

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.6

3star

CL

0.4

3star

HO

11.2

5star

with Eric Hipwood

30

Eric Hipwood

Age

27

Ht

204cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.3

3star

G

1.5

5star

D

11.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

2.7

2star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.1

2star

G

1.1

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

8.4

4star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.4

5star

to miss most of the season with his knee injury. But he is contracted at the Cats for 2022 and Geelong won't be letting him go unless they secure another ruckman in the merry-go-round of big men. Other pieces will need to fall into place before this move happens. – Callum Twomey

 

[Lazza16]

Irrespective of the number of rucks on our list, I think the idea of having say Osar play forward where he is quite capable, and then bringing in another center bounce ruckman like Fort could be really strong for our game.

It's a but of a feelscraft statement, but it seemed like we tended to lose ascendancy in the middle of the ground when Oscar was taken out of there, either for Danniher or Fullerton at different times.

More midfield dominance equates to more dominant field position. It's a bit of a doubling down on our strength, and I don't hate the idea that much.

Let's deal with the too many talls problem if it occurs later In the season.

Be a perfect situation having O up forward if the umpires were diligent and consistently paid the chopping of the arm rule.

 

[BRAB]

This is also probably why we're seeing Smith being trained up forward rather than the ruck - if you're big and willing to contest a ruck contest (unlike Daniher or Ballenden), that's all that's needed out of that 20% of the time if you're also an effective forward.

I wonder if Hipwood or McStay could be good enough to do that 20% now that they are a bit older and stronger.

Our structure would look much better if one of Hipwood, McStay or Daniher could break even in the ruck. Is that something you can coach into a player over an offseason or two or are things pretty much set in stone at this point in a players career?

 

[dlanod]

I wonder if Hipwood or McStay could be good enough to do that 20% now that they are a bit older and stronger.

Our structure would look much better if one of Hipwood, McStay or Daniher could break even in the ruck. Is that something you can coach into a player over an offseason or two or are things pretty much set in stone at this point in a players career?

I think McStay would be the best bet - willing to be contested, a bit of a leap, and strong, and have wondered from time to time why we haven't seen him given a go. I suspect it's because we rate the run and spread from Daniher after the ruck contest higher than halving the contest itself.

 

[BRAB]

I think McStay would be the best bet - willing to be contested, a bit of a leap, and strong, and have wondered from time to time why we haven't seen him given a go. I suspect it's because we rate the run and spread from Daniher after the ruck contest higher than halving the contest itself.

Yeah there's no perfect solution. I think when we brought Daniher in we sort of locked ourselves into that 3 forwards who can't ruck that well strategy and we just have to deal with that now. Anything extra is a bonus.

 

[martinson]

Yeah there's no perfect solution. I think when we brought Daniher in we sort of locked ourselves into that 3 forwards who can't ruck that well strategy and we just have to deal with that now. Anything extra is a bonus.

Daniher doesn't like contested ruck situations like Fullarton who flat out avoids it , McStay is a possibility but now that he's playing better there's more upside in having him as a forward of centre roving utility who can clunk a mark. And developing his ground kills.

So we need someone else to plug in who can ruck and also be a nuisance when he's not rucking.

 

[Surly Boy]

Behind the paywall, but curious headline....

 

[BRAB]

Behind the paywall, but curious headline....

Brisbane is prepared to package together multiple back-end selections to help secure Geelong’s Darcy Fort and ignite a four-club ruck trade.

The Lions have been in talks with the Cats about off-loading several late draft picks including 50, 54 and 60 to the Cats in return for Fort and potentially a pick back.

Fort, 28, is an important target for the Lions as he is a ready-made replacement option for frontline ruckman Oscar McInerney.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Brisbane is prepared to package together multiple back-end selections to help secure Geelong’s Darcy Fort and ignite a four-club ruck trade.

The Lions have been in talks with the Cats about off-loading several late draft picks including 50, 54 and 60 to the Cats in return for Fort and potentially a pick back.

Fort, 28, is an important target for the Lions as he is a ready-made replacement option for frontline ruckman Oscar McInerney.

What I don't understand is how several late picks are useful to Geelong. They don't have a bid to match.

 

[Dalions]

What I don't understand is how several late picks are useful to Geelong. They don't have a bid to match.

Maybe they can use the multiple picks to trade to someone needing points like Collingwood or the Bulldogs to get into the 30’s to offload for Ceglar.
Just a thought.

Hopefully the pick that comes back our way is a future.

 

[Mr Ripper]

Placeholder for "we've Fortified our ruck depth" post.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

What I don't understand is how several late picks are useful to Geelong. They don't have a bid to match.

And we already have 4 picks inside 41 and we wont have room to use more than 4 picks at the draft so those picks are no good to us (i assume we are sending you back a future 3rd or 4th for bid points next year).
Id say theres a 3rd club involved ie the 50s picks are being on traded for ceglar or we are packaging up picks to trade for an upgrade e.g. 30 and the 2 50s picks for bulldogs 23 etc
Will be interesting to see how it works out.

 

[Hollow Knight]

If we trade pick 60 I am tearing up my membership.

 

[martinson]

If we trade pick 60 I am tearing up my membership.

Harris Andrews was 61 so we hold on to that 60 like it's gold.

 

[Viceregal]

Harris Andrews was 61 so we hold on to that 60 like it's gold.

That's OK - I am sure I remember reading on a Game Day thread that he was a useless spud anyway!