- Jun 12, 2012
- 21,134
- 67,631
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- Port Adelaide
Haha the two Tasmanian clubs have 17th as their pass mark! Just move one of them already. Spooner packs their bags I say.
Preview 2022 Goodbye (To 2023) New; Preseason Discussion
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Haha the two Tasmanian clubs have 17th as their pass mark! Just move one of them already. Spooner packs their bags I say.
- Jul 26, 2020
- 12,657
- 35,051
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- Port Adelaide
Geelong just won the flag despite being old AF and need to make the GF why??
- Mar 10, 2014
- 10,230
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- Man Utd, Celtic, Tanunda
Port should be the same as Brisbane.
Need to make a GF.
None of this win-a-final ing bull***
Who designed this rubbish? Hinkley sycophants?
What has our club descended to?
Reach for the Stars, Crows
Doctor Feel
Shitposter In Chief
Funeral on friday.
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
The club is combining his and Duursma's funerals to save cash they can use to offer Hinkley for his extension.
Next you’ll be telling us Ken’s the undertaker
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
Nah, Ken can't be the Undertaker, he's too matey with Kane.
Chewy316
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 1, 2014
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At the core is a formula, Pythagorean expectation, developed by baseball stats guru Bill James (this is why we used the word Moneyball in the headline - he’s actually relevant to it!). It estimates how many games a team ‘should have’ won based on its scoring. In baseball, this means runs scored and allowed.
This works because looking at a team’s attacking and defensive performances overall, rather than purely whether they won or lost matches, gives us a larger sample size and more information.
Port Adelaide
2022 record: 10-12, 110.3%
2022 Pythagorean wins: 13.05 (gap of 3.05)
2023 prediction: Improve
The Power are a prime example of a team that wasn’t that different from year-to-year... but were a whole lot less lucky.
In 2021, they won 17 home and away games with a percentage of 126.3%, including an AFL-best record of 5-0 in close games (this was back in the old, pre-Collingwood days when that figure was impressive).
In 2022, they won 10 home and away games with a percentage of 110.3%, including an AFL-worst record of 2-7 in close games.
Right there you can see a big chunk of what changed for them - five close wins turned into five close losses. Clearly the Power were worse in 2022, taking a while to get going with an 0-5 start where their defence looked quite shambolic, but they weren’t seven wins worse.
Moneyball theory reveals which AFL teams will rise and fall in the 2023 season
The Magpies’ luck ran out last September. This is why it’ll get worse in 2023: AFL risers, fallerswww.foxsports.com.au
The AFL media love to point to close games being a toss up. The reality is this:
Since 2013 (ie when Ken started coaching at Port), Port Adelaide rank 2nd last in terms of win percentage in games decided by two goals or less. In the same time period no team has lost more games by two goals or less than Port Adelaide.
This is damning considering that Port Adelaide ironically had the best record in close games among all teams in 2020 and 2021. The outlier of course is that these two years were affected by covid.
Teams may see giant fluctuations in close games on a year to year basis, but under Ken Port Adelaide has always been terrible in close games and I don't see that changing any time soon given the 8 year sample size we have outside of the two covid years.
It'll be three if Donuts gets an extension. Not very articulate, our Charlie - maybe there'll be something better on the club site...
- Mar 10, 2014
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- Man Utd, Celtic, Tanunda
Hang in there, Robbo.
It ain't over til it's over mate!
We only have to nurse Orazio through one game of football & assist Junior in handing ASADA the correct Gatorade bottle to get a pass mark.
Ford Fairlane
Moderator
- Feb 21, 2002
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- Port Adelaide Magpies
- Moderator
- #1,390
Just letting you all know that I have had a discussion with robbo1981 and we have agreed to start a new thread where he can keep us updated on his progress.
This way this discussion can have clear air and posters can contribute their thoughts and robbo has a place to update us and vent if he feels the need.
The thread is in Black Diamond Corner and his username is the title.
This way this discussion can have clear air and posters can contribute their thoughts and robbo has a place to update us and vent if he feels the need.
The thread is in Black Diamond Corner and his username is the title.
Doctor Feel
Shitposter In Chief
Wish the season would start so we can see another sack hinkley sticker.
- Nov 1, 2008
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Knowing how highly they regard JHF on the North board and how they've taken to heart his overall well-being, I'm sure this article will fill them with lots of joy.
Horne-Francis thriving in Port Adelaide's competitive environment
Horne-Francis thriving in Port Adelaide's competitive environment
Careful some , it’s a positive story
Doctor Feel
Shitposter In Chief
Yeah, this one is.
- Nov 1, 2008
- 2,574
- 3,174
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- Port Adelaide
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- Dallas Cowboys/New York Yankees
I know there is a lot of negativity about our coach, the Chairman, and the outlook for the future. While I understand people's reluctance to get too excited, I think being overly negative can ruin the joy of supporting the club and turn us into our whinging neighbours (if it hasn't already happened). We might be bottom 4 and sometimes even worst, middle of the pack but complaining all year isn't going to change the outcome.
This club's financial situation has been masterfully handled while our football performance has been below expectations. Having said that, this is my positive spin on the season.
Josh Carr is the obvioius choice for our future coach. It seems that wherever he goes there is success. Freo had a significant improvement when he was in their environment and then he comes back to Port. Seems funny to mee that he would seemingly take a step backwards without some reassurances that he is in line as a natural successor. What Josh might learn from Hinckley is his ability to bond with the playing group.
Secondly, a lot of players that I rated as the future should be coming into their peak now. Last Year Rozee, Butters, Marshall and PP took a forward step. This year Duursma and Bergman can join the A grade class. Special mention to Kane Farrell as he has shown some elite ball usage and goal scoring ability. Not sure wether he is blue chip or A grade. Time will tell. Jason Horne-Francis is the real bonus. He looks fit and can really change our midfield. With Wines as the extractor, Drew as the hard checking mid, this can make it easier for JHF and Rozee to elevate their game.
The next bracket is Lachie Jones, Georgiades, and to a lesser extent Riley Bonner. I think much like Amon, Bonner needs to find a role. A good coach will be able to exploit his talents and give him confidence. I think Josh Carr might get more out of him. Lachie Jones is just too fumbly and needs to one grab and make decisions quicker.
In the young brigade we need Sinn, Pasini, or Mead to create selection pressure. What they bring to the table is only speculation unitl they have played a cetain amount of games.
Finally there is the established players that can improve the team. There is still room for Ryan Burton to be more attacking of the backline and also get close to a goal a game to make his forwards worry about his arebic ability and long kick. Ollie wines was limited last year due to injury along with a host of other leaders.
This is our team and these are the areas that I want to see improvment. Of course I'll be dissappointed if it doesn't happen. But I'm not gonna bag the team just so that I won't be dissappointed when things go to s@#t.
This club's financial situation has been masterfully handled while our football performance has been below expectations. Having said that, this is my positive spin on the season.
Josh Carr is the obvioius choice for our future coach. It seems that wherever he goes there is success. Freo had a significant improvement when he was in their environment and then he comes back to Port. Seems funny to mee that he would seemingly take a step backwards without some reassurances that he is in line as a natural successor. What Josh might learn from Hinckley is his ability to bond with the playing group.
Secondly, a lot of players that I rated as the future should be coming into their peak now. Last Year Rozee, Butters, Marshall and PP took a forward step. This year Duursma and Bergman can join the A grade class. Special mention to Kane Farrell as he has shown some elite ball usage and goal scoring ability. Not sure wether he is blue chip or A grade. Time will tell. Jason Horne-Francis is the real bonus. He looks fit and can really change our midfield. With Wines as the extractor, Drew as the hard checking mid, this can make it easier for JHF and Rozee to elevate their game.
The next bracket is Lachie Jones, Georgiades, and to a lesser extent Riley Bonner. I think much like Amon, Bonner needs to find a role. A good coach will be able to exploit his talents and give him confidence. I think Josh Carr might get more out of him. Lachie Jones is just too fumbly and needs to one grab and make decisions quicker.
In the young brigade we need Sinn, Pasini, or Mead to create selection pressure. What they bring to the table is only speculation unitl they have played a cetain amount of games.
Finally there is the established players that can improve the team. There is still room for Ryan Burton to be more attacking of the backline and also get close to a goal a game to make his forwards worry about his arebic ability and long kick. Ollie wines was limited last year due to injury along with a host of other leaders.
This is our team and these are the areas that I want to see improvment. Of course I'll be dissappointed if it doesn't happen. But I'm not gonna bag the team just so that I won't be dissappointed when things go to s@#t.
I get knocked for it, but I am always glass half full, despite Kock & Ken leading the show. I cant curb my passion for Port, so I dont allow myself to wallow in the negativity.
I have rejoined & will be at the Melbourne matches shouting for the win!
PS ... I think Rioli will be something special for us this year!
- Nov 25, 2019
- 5,316
- 10,750
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- Port Adelaide
I'm not sure this is the best list we have had assembled in the Ken era, buts it's the most exciting in my opinion. The highest ceiling.
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
Great to see Jason enjoying his first preseason at an AFL club.
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