Opinion 2023 AFL Draft Prospects

[scratchie]

If North want Harley Reid, they have the picks to entice Westcoast to part with the number 1 pick.
The 2 clubs have already made ambit offers to each other. Westcoast are in a rebuild and need as many highly talented kids as they can get their hand on.

I expect that at the 11th hour North will offer pick 3 and 14. Hard to see how Westcoast walking away. They may ask for more and they may extract another 2nd or 3rd rounder from North. In the end though, Westcoast will have to accept.

Highly likely to play out like this:

Pick 1 - Harley Reid - North Melbourne
Pick 2 - Jed Walter - Gold Coast
Pick 3 - Dan Curtin - Westcoast
Pick 4 - Colby McKercher - North Melbourne

Its then up to Hawthorn - the clear near universal next best choice is between
Zane Duursma/Nick Watson/Ryley Sanders

Sanders is the most conservative choice - lowest ceiling but highest floor. Duursma and Watson are athletic both with considerable X factor but how their abilities play out at the elite level is not as clear. Expect them both to be decent players but maybe not as mercurial as they have been in juniors. That said, there is something about the way Watson moves that is very rare, his body awareness - in tight to out-body much bigger opponents - is to me reminiscent of Leigh Matthews.

 

[dogwatch]

From what I've read here (not from meticulous study of videos and match reports, or Dog forbid, watching in person) it seems like the following BF assessment of ceilings/floors might apply to the five players most likely to be available at our pick:


Is this a fair reading?

 

[flipper83]

From what I've read here (not from meticulous study of videos and match reports, or Dog forbid, watching in person) it seems like the following BF assessment of ceilings/floors might apply to the five players most likely to be available at our pick:

View attachment 1836823
Is this a fair reading?

I almost think Watson has the highest floor and the lowest ceiling depending on how you value current players. I can't really see him not being a serviceable small forward at AFL level and his ceiling would be one of the best small forwards who can roll through the midfield in bursts but I doubt he becomes a full time mid.
All the others have the potential to be full time midfielders which is usually the players who are considered to be the 'best'. I could see Sanders or McKercher winning Brownlows due to their consistency.
All baring Sanders have either have unique size or athleticism which could make them high impact midfielders if they reach their full potential.

 

[flipper83]

From what I've read here (not from meticulous study of videos and match reports, or Dog forbid, watching in person) it seems like the following BF assessment of ceilings/floors might apply to the five players most likely to be available at our pick:

View attachment 1836823
Is this a fair reading?

I also think Duursma should have a higher ceiling although he's probably longer odds of reaching it, he probably has the lowest floor though. It's hard to guess ceilings McKercher should probably be equal top.

 

[maddog37]

Is Watson comparable to Robbie Gray

9

Robbie Gray

Age

36

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.4

5star

D

13.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

4star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

?

 

[dogwatch]

I also think Duursma should have a higher ceiling although he's probably longer odds of reaching it, he probably has the lowest floor though. It's hard to guess ceilings McKercher should probably be equal top.

Thanks for your thoughts f83.

Makes me think I should redesign the floor-ceiling graphic to convey the extra dimensions. Make the line fatter where it’s high probability and thinner where it’s low probability. Might work.

It’s all a bit of fun anyway, to freshen up the somewhat repetitive discussion.

 

[ossie_21]

Not a draft expert at all, but it seems the consensus is it will be a pick between Sanders & Duursma for us.

Regardless of who holds the picks, I think it goes like this for top 10:

Reid
Walter
McKercher
Curtin
Watson
Sanders
Duursma
Caddy
O’Sullivan
Read

 

[flipper83]

Thanks for your thoughts f83.

Makes me think I should redesign the floor-ceiling graphic to convey the extra dimensions. Make the line fatter where it’s high probability and thinner where it’s low probability. Might work.

It’s all a bit of fun anyway, to freshen up the somewhat repetitive discussion.

Yeah maybe a box and whisker type graph might be a better representation.
For instance for McKercher to get near he's ceiling he really just needs to translate what he's done this year to AFL level while for Duursma, as far as I can tell, he's just shown flashes during matches that make people think he could become a midfielder.
I'm really no expert, all my opinions are based on what I've read and been able to view on the internet so there are others on this board who would have a much better idea.

 

[flipper83]

Not a draft expert at all, but it seems the consensus is it will be a pick between Sanders & Duursma for us.

Regardless of who holds the picks, I think it goes like this for top 10:

Reid
Walter
McKercher
Curtin
Watson
Sanders
Duursma
Caddy
O’Sullivan
Read

Is this based on phantoms? From what I've heard it seems Duursma is less likely to be there with North and Hawthorn both keen although who knows how accurate whispers are at this stage.

 

[LittleG]

We should be having a good look at Caddy.

He has midfield potential and is that bigger body, while still a mobile player. I am would have him ahead of Sanders. I think his ceiling is really high and would at worst be a solid medium forward.

 

[Nat Fyfe]

We should be having a good look at Caddy.

He has midfield potential and is that bigger body, while still a mobile player. I am would have him ahead of Sanders. I think his ceiling is really high and would at worst be a solid medium forward.

Caddy looks good but personally I'm wary of seeing us spend our first on any forwards outside of Watson. Reason being we've spent significant resources in the last 6 drafts on forwards (particularly marking forwards) - Naughton, JUH, Darcy, Weightman all first rounds picks, plus Clarke in the early second round last year and Croft being a likely first rounder this year.

The issue with spending big in a short period of time in one area of the ground is that it inevitably leads to a cap squeeze. It's fine to have high cost players across every area of the ground, but currently our defence looks to have been assembled with a bunch of scrap, our midfield is aging with minimal quality coming through, while our forward line is already looking like it could be expensive to retain further down the track, even without adding another early pick.

The only reason I'd be okay with grabbing Watson is because he offers something we don't get from the others (being that he's not a marking forward), his skillset borders on unique, and we desperately need more pace.

 

[LittleG]

Caddy looks good but personally I'm wary of seeing us spend our first on any forwards outside of Watson. Reason being we've spent significant resources in the last 6 drafts on forwards (particularly marking forwards) - Naughton, JUH, Darcy, Weightman all first rounds picks, plus Clarke in the early second round last year and Croft being a likely first rounder this year.

The issue with spending big in a short period of time in one area of the ground is that it inevitably leads to a cap squeeze. It's fine to have high cost players across every area of the ground, but currently our defence looks to have been assembled with a bunch of scrap, our midfield is aging with minimal quality coming through, while our forward line is already looking like it could be expensive to retain further down the track, even without adding another early pick.

The only reason I'd be okay with grabbing Watson is because he offers something we don't get from the others (being that he's not a marking forward), his skillset borders on unique, and we desperately need more pace.

I see Caddy is a midfielder.

 

[weltschmerz]

I see Caddy is a midfielder.

What’s that based on?

 

[ossie_21]

Is this based on phantoms? From what I've heard it seems Duursma is less likely to be there with North and Hawthorn both keen although who knows how accurate whispers are at this stage.

Pretty much lol, read a few different ones but it’s just what I think. Fairly strange year, as talk was Eagles could just use pick 1 on Curtin but he could go anywhere from 1-6. If Norf offer a deal for pick 1 which involves getting pick 2 + another first rounder, they would do it every day of the week and still get the WA boy.

Hawks seem keen on Watson, I’ve come around on him but I just hope he’s not the player we traded up for as I don’t think he slides. Or, we are happy with any of the ones we get to pick from.

 

[LittleG]

What’s that based on?

Talking to another draft watcher about him. He thinks he could become that big bodied mid, who is also a long option outlet kick for defenders. Too big for most midfielders and strong enough to win his own ball.

He would need a season of VFL player Centre, to test him to that level.

 

[flipper83]

Talking to another draft watcher about him. He thinks he could become that bug bodied mid, who is also a long option outlet kick for defenders. Too big for most midfielders and strong enough to win his own ball.

He would need a season of VFL player Centre, to test him to that level.

An extra set of limbs could come in handy

 

[House_of_Dahl]

An extra set of limbs could come in handy

Move over Essendon, we're rolling out the bug hybrid program next season

 

[flipper83]

Pretty much lol, read a few different ones but it’s just what I think. Fairly strange year, as talk was Eagles could just use pick 1 on Curtin but he could go anywhere from 1-6. If Norf offer a deal for pick 1 which involves getting pick 2 + another first rounder, they would do it every day of the week and still get the WA boy.

Hawks seem keen on Watson, I’ve come around on him but I just hope he’s not the player we traded up for as I don’t think he slides. Or, we are happy with any of the ones we get to pick from.

Yeah I think a trade will happen between North and West Coast.
I think the fact that it's so unclear who will be available to us shows the value of the pick. When there's not much separating the 3rd best and 7th best talent and we have pick 6 it's a good spot to be.

Talking to another draft watcher about him. He thinks he could become that big bodied mid, who is also a long option outlet kick for defenders. Too big for most midfielders and strong enough to win his own ball.

He would need a season of VFL player Centre, to test him to that level.

Normally I'm happy to go high risk high reward but I'm not sure that's the play for us this year.
Having traded next year's pick to move up we're all in on contending for a flag this year so we need someone who's more ready to go.
It's not like the other players, outside of possibly Sanders have lower ceilings anyway so I think we need to stick with the safer options this year.
Also with Naughton, Marra, Darcy, English, Croft, O'Donnell and Busslinger all talented young talls who we'd expect to be part of our future teams we should have plenty of mobile marking targets. Really Marra should play our third yeah role.

 

[flipper83]

Move over Essendon, we're rolling out the bug hybrid program next season

Might have some interesting father sons coming though?

 

[coxman]

2023 AFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-27 (first edition)

The draft is a month away! Here's how the first round could unfold👇

www.zerohanger.com

 

[willofwest]

My simplistic view is that we need midfield talent this draft. We have good tally, need a ruck and back up KPB with late picks is we have them left or rookie them. I dont want a small forward with what we have already on list.

 

[ossie_21]

My simplistic view is that we need midfield talent this draft. We have good tally, need a ruck and back up KPB with late picks is we have them left or rookie them. I dont want a small forward with what we have already on list.

Aside from Clarke, we don’t really have a natural small forward on this list. So what are you on about by overlooking that position? I agree see also need high end mids, but it’s also the easiest position to fill via trades.

Arty might have the profile for small forward, but could be more suited to a midfield/wing role. Doesn’t seem to be a goal-kicking player. We need our own Milne/Betts/Papley/Cameron/Breust/Walters type of player.

If it’s not Duursma or Watson falling to our pick, fair enough we take a mid due to best available like Sanders as other mostly mid players will fall later, but we definitely need to target someone from somewhere for that role. Staggering to think that way as we are top heavy after years of crying for a KPF, but we definitely need to target certain roles at this stage

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Might have some interesting father sons coming though?

219,000 the year after the heavy rains.

 

[Planet Dogs]

My head says Sanders. My heart says Watson.

 

[doggy_dog]

Reading between the lines at this stage it sounds like we’ll be getting either Watson or Sanders pending what the Eagles do.

If they trade with North (my gut says they will) they’ll take Curtin before our pick and likely Watson is on the board for us.

If they retain pick 1 Curtin looks like sliding and Watson likely goes to either North or Hawthorn, leaving us with Sanders/Curtin and it sounds like we prefer Sanders.

Reid (North)
Walter
Curtin (Eagles)
McKercher (North)
Duursma (Hawks)
Watson

Reid (Eagles)
Walter
McKercher (North)
Duursma (North)
Watson (Hawks)
Sanders