Opinion 2023 AFL Draft Prospects

[House_of_Dahl]

Are you suggesting Harley Reid and Jed Walter slip to 4 and 5? That would raise a few eyebrows.

Think he's assuming 4 becomes 6 (match bid for Walter at 2, and North's compo at 3). Leaving Watson at 6 (which would be OK with me).

Knowing our luck we'll keep our 10 and Watson will slide only be taken a pick before us!

 

[dogwatch]

Think he's assuming 4 becomes 6 (match bid for Walter at 2, and North's compo at 3). Leaving Watson at 6 (which would be OK with me).

Knowing our luck we'll keep our 10 and Watson will slide only be taken a pick before us!

Not always a bad thing. I'm hoping the Saints will end up with the pick before ours, just so they can do a bit of housecleaning.

In Bont's year they had pick 3 and they went Billings. We went Bont at 4.
In Naughton's year they had 7 & 8 and went Clarke & Coffield - who we were hoping to draft (and may still get!) - and we went Naughton at 9.

Turned out OK.

 

[Dav1d]

"Injury"

As I recall they test sometime earlier in the year too, so at the combine they can compare the numbers to their previous results.
It would be nice to have those results myself, but I’m sure someone will have something show up just prior to the draft

 

[goodcop badcop]

As I recall they test sometime earlier in the year too, so at the combine they can compare the numbers to their previous results.
It would be nice to have those results myself, but I’m sure someone will have something show up just prior to the draft

Yes they do pre season testing, I have a few of those results just from asking a recruiting buddy, but not many. I know Watson tested very well in speed, agility and endurance.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I think Watson is most likely


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Not sure I want to make it three first rounders spent on small forwards in the last five years - especially not if this one costs us 2-3 of them.

 

[Ash1337]

Are you suggesting Harley Reid and Jed Walter slip to 4 and 5? That would raise a few eyebrows.

I didn't include Reid because he is dead set pick 1 and it doesn't matter where Walter would be bidded on. I expect he'd be hawks bid at the very latest.

 

[PurpJuice]

Not sure I want to make it three first rounders spent on small forwards in the last five years - especially not if this one costs us 2-3 of them.

Watson plays midfield too, he brings speed and power which we need in there

 

[hatescaptcha]

Crofty - Can’t wait to add him to the list. He may just surprise a few.

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[Ash1337]

This is what I wish to happen but highly doubt it. Dogs get pick 4 and norf miss out on band 1. Norf get Curtin at 2 and hawks get duursma. Dogs get mckercher.

Most optomistic scenario Norf get band 1 dogs get pick 4/5 and get watson.

Least optomistic but ok scenario norf take watson and mckercher leaving a choice of trading for a f1 or take Sanders, O'Sullivan or Wilson.

Wild scenario but may happen if norf miss on band 1 and trade for dons pick 8 which they use to upgraded to suns pick. Dogs keep 10 and draft before a Croft bid.

Worst scenario is dogs don't get 4 and a croft bid comes in before 10 meaning dogs have to trade out 10 for a F1 and hope they can can get back in.

 

[doggies ftw]

Not sure I want to make it three first rounders spent on small forwards in the last five years - especially not if this one costs us 2-3 of them.

Watson isn’t just a standard small forward though IMO, serious front half spark whether it’s pushing into the middle etc. I think we’re desperate for that speed, skill & burst that he brings in spades

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Worst scenario is dogs don't get 4 and a croft bid comes in before 10 meaning dogs have to trade out 10 for a F1 and hope they can can get back in.

Or just suck it up and use 10. A few players around pick 20 I'd be keen on like Tholstrup or Collard. Hopefully Lual after that.

A worst case outcome isn't that bad when I think of it like that - draft Croft, Tholstrup/Collard, and Lual/someone. Keeps next year's in tact too.

 

[hatescaptcha]

Really keen on bringing in both Watson & Collard. Would give us alot of speed, goal nous and flair. That we’ve been missing.

Both can have a run in the midfield as well.

+ Croft & Lual

And I’ll be happy.

Target midfield specifically next year.

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[Ash1337]

Or just suck it up and use 10. A few players around pick 20 I'd be keen on like Tholstrup or Collard. Hopefully Lual after that.

A worst case outcome isn't that bad when I think of it like that - draft Croft, Tholstrup/Collard, and Lual/someone. Keeps next year's in tact too.

No point in chewing up 10 if can be used to get a future 1st from a team likely to be bottom 5 next year.

 

[NthBondiDoggies]

Has the club said anything to confirm the pick 4 swap? We are at the point where we Are going for elite talent and I like that - the proposed add of a future1 with nothing back seems overs but Geelong have shown that if you go hard you can get talent.

Despite us blowing a fooofoo valve at the end of the season - our list is very close with only two real holes (assuming oldies will still play) - ground all forward and midfield/wing speed.

This bid will get us one of those at an elite level - Watson, McCercher, Duursma.

Also - are we really concerned that someone takes Croft at 12 - seems a stretch for him. Twomey had him at 11 a month ago with Walter and Read pushing our pick to 13. But later phantoms from others have him going back. ESPN has him at 16 with us likely taking Wilson, O Murphy (KPD) , Schoenmaker (KPD) or G Stevens (Mid). That’s sounds pretty good also.

Assuming our picks come in at 13 and 19, mid 30 and late 39 for Sweet and a 50 and mid 60. And Croft is bid at 15 which is about as high as most phantoms have him.

Alternative 1: If not we get a very good pick at 12, then Croft say at 15 which we match and our next pick gets dropped back to say 20. We then have a mid thirties, Sweet compo wiped out for Coffield and two late picks.

Assuming Croft goes at 15 - is this correct? I don’t know the rules well?

13, Croft, OK pick in 30’s, Coffield (for Sweet compo) and two roughies would be good.

And say we finish 4th next year with all the F/sons - we would also keep 20.

Alternative 2: 12, Trade 19 for pick 25 and mid 35ish (more points from Melb), Croft goes at 15, match Croft, pick 25 taken up by Croft, take mid 30s, Sweet comp have another pick around 40 for Coffield, then two roughies.

This would give us: 12, Croft, two 30’s, Coffield and two roughies? Would this work?

Alternative 3: I really like Duursma from Port - he is a tough winger and would be a huge uplift on current. We trade our 19 for him. One 30 for Coffield. Not sure what options we could come up with for Duursma/Sweet?

Then we take Wilson at 12, match Croft at 15 with our mid remaining 30 and 50 and may 60 are used to match him.

We then have: Wilson, Croft, Duursma, Coffield (two to make us better next year) and one super late in the draft on Sullivan or a KPD like Emerson Jeka (I think we need to take 3?).

We get a problem immediate problem solved (Duursma) two future stars (Croft and Windsor/Wilson/O’Murphy/Leake) and solid best 22 in Coffield and a depth player - Sullivan would be a good fill in if Libba or West got injured.

Would be brilliant to work out how we get Lual also - ETA 29-32.

 

[Northernsoul74]

View attachment 1824564

Crofty - Can’t wait to add him to the list. He may just surprise a few.

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Looks like he’s also off on a 2 day bender to see Pendulum.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Darcy Wilson came second in the 2km time trial at the draft combine today.

 

[Mofra]

Darcy Wilson came second in the 2km time trial at the draft combine today.

Importantly, he actually uses that endurance in games. I'm really hesitant to trade up and would be comfortable banking pick 10 to take Wilson (or Windsor is Wilson isn't there).

 

[LittleG]

Importantly, he actually uses that endurance in games. I'm really hesitant to trade up and would be comfortable banking pick 10 to take Wilson (or Windsor is Wilson isn't there).

My preference is to avoid pick 4.

Pick 8 or trading pick 17 for futures, is my preference.

 

[Ash1337]

Has the club said anything to confirm the pick 4 swap? We are at the point where we Are going for elite talent and I like that - the proposed add of a future1 with nothing back seems overs but Geelong have shown that if you go hard you can get talent.

Despite us blowing a fooofoo valve at the end of the season - our list is very close with only two real holes (assuming oldies will still play) - ground all forward and midfield/wing speed.

This bid will get us one of those at an elite level - Watson, McCercher, Duursma.

Also - are we really concerned that someone takes Croft at 12 - seems a stretch for him. Twomey had him at 11 a month ago with Walter and Read pushing our pick to 13. But later phantoms from others have him going back. ESPN has him at 16 with us likely taking Wilson, O Murphy (KPD) , Schoenmaker (KPD) or G Stevens (Mid). That’s sounds pretty good also.

Assuming our picks come in at 13 and 19, mid 30 and late 39 for Sweet and a 50 and mid 60. And Croft is bid at 15 which is about as high as most phantoms have him.

Alternative 1: If not we get a very good pick at 12, then Croft say at 15 which we match and our next pick gets dropped back to say 20. We then have a mid thirties, Sweet compo wiped out for Coffield and two late picks.

Assuming Croft goes at 15 - is this correct? I don’t know the rules well?

13, Croft, OK pick in 30’s, Coffield (for Sweet compo) and two roughies would be good.

And say we finish 4th next year with all the F/sons - we would also keep 20.

Alternative 2: 12, Trade 19 for pick 25 and mid 35ish (more points from Melb), Croft goes at 15, match Croft, pick 25 taken up by Croft, take mid 30s, Sweet comp have another pick around 40 for Coffield, then two roughies.

This would give us: 12, Croft, two 30’s, Coffield and two roughies? Would this work?

Alternative 3: I really like Duursma from Port - he is a tough winger and would be a huge uplift on current. We trade our 19 for him. One 30 for Coffield. Not sure what options we could come up with for Duursma/Sweet?

Then we take Wilson at 12, match Croft at 15 with our mid remaining 30 and 50 and may 60 are used to match him.

We then have: Wilson, Croft, Duursma, Coffield (two to make us better next year) and one super late in the draft on Sullivan or a KPD like Emerson Jeka (I think we need to take 3?).

We get a problem immediate problem solved (Duursma) two future stars (Croft and Windsor/Wilson/O’Murphy/Leake) and solid best 22 in Coffield and a depth player - Sullivan would be a good fill in if Libba or West got injured.

Would be brilliant to work out how we get Lual also - ETA 29-32.

I think consensus is that 10, 17, F1 has other picks coming back beside 4 to satisfy a croft bid and maybe even picks to get into the draft after the bid. It might be that Power has arranged for 2 of suns picks this year to come back with a F2 or such. I doub't it's just for pick 4 only. Not even Power would do it for that.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Watson plays midfield too, he brings speed and power which we need in there

Watson isn’t just a standard small forward though IMO, serious front half spark whether it’s pushing into the middle etc. I think we’re desperate for that speed, skill & burst that he brings in spades

My personal view - having not seen much of this year's crop at all - is that every year people get enamoured of some new small dude who "can push into the midfield" while completely ignoring AFL history.

Here are the players 175cm and under currently in the league (sourced from ZH so maybe some slight inconsistencies): Jake Bowey, Connor Budarick, Kade Chandler, Zac Fisher, Bobby Hill, Darcy Jones, Darcy MacPherson, Dion Prestia, Willie Rioli, Will Snelling, Tyson Stengle, Dayne Zorko, Brent Daniels, Lachlan Murphy, Liam Baker, Travis Colyer, Corey Durdin, Phoenix Spicer, Charlie Spargo, Caleb Daniel, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Kysaiah Pickett.

There are almost none of those I would spend a top five pick on, and even less have actually managed to spend any real, consistent time in the midfield at AFL level.

This is without even acknowledging that Watson is right at the lower end of that list as well.

Genuine question: how many 170ish-cm players from the past 10 years can you name that fill the above two criteria?

Perhaps he's an exception - I don't know him from a bar of soap - but the size, combined with our recent expenditure on small forwards makes me super nervous.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

My personal view - having not seen much of this year's crop at all - is that every year people get enamoured of some new small dude who "can push into the midfield" while completely ignoring AFL history.

Here are the players 175cm and under currently in the league (sourced from ZH so maybe some slight inconsistencies): Jake Bowey, Connor Budarick, Kade Chandler, Zac Fisher, Bobby Hill, Darcy Jones, Darcy MacPherson, Dion Prestia, Willie Rioli, Will Snelling, Tyson Stengle, Dayne Zorko, Brent Daniels, Lachlan Murphy, Liam Baker, Travis Colyer, Corey Durdin, Phoenix Spicer, Charlie Spargo, Caleb Daniel, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Kysaiah Pickett.

There are almost none of those I would spend a top five pick on, and even less have actually managed to spend any real, consistent time in the midfield at AFL level.

This is without even acknowledging that Watson is right at the lower end of that list as well.

Genuine question: how many 170ish-cm players from the past 10 years can you name that fill the above two criteria?

Perhaps he's an exception - I don't know him from a bar of soap - but the size, combined with our recent expenditure on small forwards makes me super nervous.

You put the cutoff 2cm below a dual Brownlow medalist, if I can make a somewhat flippant reply to an admittedly reasonable post.

Also Errol Gulden's 175cm, according to wikipedia at least. He goes alright.

 

[doggies ftw]

My personal view - having not seen much of this year's crop at all - is that every year people get enamoured of some new small dude who "can push into the midfield" while completely ignoring AFL history.

Here are the players 175cm and under currently in the league (sourced from ZH so maybe some slight inconsistencies): Jake Bowey, Connor Budarick, Kade Chandler, Zac Fisher, Bobby Hill, Darcy Jones, Darcy MacPherson, Dion Prestia, Willie Rioli, Will Snelling, Tyson Stengle, Dayne Zorko, Brent Daniels, Lachlan Murphy, Liam Baker, Travis Colyer, Corey Durdin, Phoenix Spicer, Charlie Spargo, Caleb Daniel, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Kysaiah Pickett.

There are almost none of those I would spend a top five pick on, and even less have actually managed to spend any real, consistent time in the midfield at AFL level.

This is without even acknowledging that Watson is right at the lower end of that list as well.

Genuine question: how many 170ish-cm players from the past 10 years can you name that fill the above two criteria?

Perhaps he's an exception - I don't know him from a bar of soap - but the size, combined with our recent expenditure on small forwards makes me super nervous.

I get where you’re coming from, I thought the same earlier but there’s heaps of footage, like genuinely 40min plus - on YouTube of Watson and it’s worth a watch.

Most of those guys listed just aren’t midfielders so are kind of irrelevant, there’s more to being a midfielder than just height. I look at a guy like Kossie whose the same height and has had an impact rotating in the midfield - I see Watson playing a similar role but just a lot better.

His pace is absolutely elite which is the main thing at that height, and he’s seriously powerful. I don’t think he’ll be a full time midfielder at that height but he’s a front half player - and they’ve very quickly become one of the most important positions in the league over the past two years. I don’t really mind whether he’s 170 or 180, if his current game translates to AFL level he’s absolutely worth a top pick, that’s the trouble with any draftee - figuring out if their game translates, but I don’t necessarily think it won’t just because of his height.

Heights starting to become less relevant again compared to speed & footballing ability in recent years, compared to 5 years ago when you had to be 192cm to be considered a gun midfielder IMO

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

You put the cutoff 2cm below a dual Brownlow medalist, if I can make a somewhat flippant reply to an admittedly reasonable post.

Also Errol Gulden's 175cm, according to wikipedia at least. He goes alright.

Sure, but you have to put the cut off somewhere. I thought it was quite generous to put the cut off 5 centimetres taller than the player we're actually discussing.

 

[Mofra]

 

[Munnez]

I know it’s highly unlikely but I would personally prefer McKercher over Watson. Top 5-6 is a large investment and historically speaking the chances of success for someone around the 175cm mark are pretty low.

There are exceptions which prove the rule like Neale and Prestia but it sure as he'll makes me nervous about it. I trust the club to make a better choice than me though