Opinion 2023 AFL Draft Prospects

[weltschmerz]

Just thought maybe Dogs are in on Wilson at 5 and jumped Cats to draft him. After what Power just said they're looking at a few guys and mentioned speed.

Really hoping one of McKercher and Watson will be there. Speed and need.

 

[hatescaptcha]

I’m still on the Watson / Collard / Lual train - somehow make all three happen. Speed.


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[geelongrecruit5]

View attachment 1834146

They should all find a home IMO

 

[iambrilliant]

Just thought maybe Dogs are in on Wilson at 5 and jumped Cats to draft him. After what Power just said they're looking at a few guys and mentioned speed.

Surely we would’ve just traded our 2 2023 first for Geelongs first if that was the case

 

[doggies ftw]

I’m still on the Watson / Collard / Lual train - somehow make all three happen. Speed.


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Don’t think I’d want both Watson & Collard to be honest, Sanders & Collard though (or McKercher but won’t happen) yes pls.

Don’t see how we get in for Collard though, we don’t have any more tradable assets

 

[Mojorisin]

Don’t think I’d want both Watson & Collard to be honest, Sanders & Collard though (or McKercher but won’t happen) yes pls.

Don’t see how we get in for Collard though, we don’t have any more tradable assets

After interviews at the combine Collard has got into first round potential. He interviewed really well has great character and clubs were put at ease as to his potential of staying interstate long term.

 

[dogwatch]

After interviews at the combine Collard has got into first round potential. He interviewed really well has great character and clubs were put at ease as to his potential of staying interstate long term.

Good. I hope a few more players move up the draft board and Croft slips to the second round.

We also need a few to climb up into the top 30 to push Lual out to 40+.

 

[Mojorisin]

Good. I hope a few more players move up the draft board and Croft slips to the second round.

We also need a few to climb up into the top 30 to push Lual out to 40+.

Doubt he knocks Croft down unfortunately. Collard is likely to go late teens at the earliest.

 

[goodcop badcop]

So we've got picks 5, 48, 50, 52, 53, 56, 69.

I'm guessing we'll have at least 6 open spots come draft night and maybe only take 5 selections? Leaving one spot for a mid season selection.

 

[Dav1d]

So we've got picks 5, 48, 50, 52, 53, 56, 69.

I'm guessing we'll have at least 6 open spots come draft night and maybe only take 5 selections? Leaving one spot for a mid season selection.

Anyone been elevated to the main list?
Otherwise that’s a whole lot of draftees with not so many high picks, though some clubs probably won’t draft that deep

 

[Testekill]

Just thought maybe Dogs are in on Wilson at 5 and jumped Cats to draft him. After what Power just said they're looking at a few guys and mentioned speed.

I don't think we would have traded up to pick 4 in order to jump the Cats to get Wilson, we'd have traded up to their pick in order to get him.

 

[hatescaptcha]

I don't think we would have traded up to pick 4 in order to jump the Cats to get Wilson, we'd have traded up to their pick in order to get him.

We definitely mentioned inside midfielder (Sanders) and forwards with speed (Watson). Both seem most likely our main targets if McKercher doesn’t slip to us.


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[dogwatch]

Anyone been elevated to the main list?
Otherwise that’s a whole lot of draftees with not so many high picks, though some clubs probably won’t draft that deep

So we've got picks 5, 48, 50, 52, 53, 56, 69.

We will need at least three of those picks for Croft if he goes in the mid teens as has been suggested.

Pick 14 is probably as high as we'd expect a bid (but who knows?). That is worth 1161 points which equates to 929 with the 20% discount. If that happened we'd need to use picks 48, 50, 52 and 53 (with a few points left over). Leaving only a couple of late hail mary picks.

If he went at pick 20 however we'd only need 912 points less 20% = 730. So we'd only need to use picks 48, 50 and 52.

 

[Ash1337]

We definitely mentioned inside midfielder (Sanders) and forwards with speed (Watson). Both seem most likely our main targets if McKercher doesn’t slip to us.


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Also mentioned Utility.

 

[Testekill]

We definitely mentioned inside midfielder (Sanders) and forwards with speed (Watson). Both seem most likely our main targets if McKercher doesn’t slip to us.


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Oh yeah, Sanders is 100% a top 6 pick and he has that ability to motor from a clearance that would be really appealing. I would be absolutely fine with taking him but McKercher is my dream pick.

 

[weltschmerz]

We will need at least three of those picks for Croft if he goes in the mid teens as has been suggested.

Pick 14 is probably as high as we'd expect a bid (but who knows?). That is worth 1161 points which equates to 929 with the 20% discount. If that happened we'd need to use picks 48, 50, 52 and 53 (with a few points left over). Leaving only a couple of late hail mary picks.

If he went at pick 20 however we'd only need 912 points less 20% = 730. So we'd only need to use picks 48, 50 and 52.

One thing to keep in mind is that in matching Walter and Read, Suns will probably lose six picks, so our picks could be bumped up a few. Even bumped up two places, we can use our newly bumped 46, 48, and 50 to match from pick 14 onwards, and have a pick 52 (becoming 50) in the third round for a slider.

 

[Bonti 5416]

Really interesting to listen to Sam Power

Sam Power

Age

41

Ht

190cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.8

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

talking about the excitement about drafting a good kid at pick 5 “yeah absolutely, its a mix of players, theres some inside players (Sanders), midfielders (Mekercher and ???), theres some forwards with some real speed (The Wizard) theres some more utility players who have got some versatility and high end talent (Curtin and Duursma). We’ll do some work on it in the next four weeks but we know at that pick we are going to get a really good player.

Also spoke very briefly about matching for Jordan Croft beinfg careful not to look too keen but interesting went on to say “we’ll also potentially look to have another 1 or 2 selections at the back end of the draft”

 

[dogwatch]

One thing to keep in mind is that in matching Walter and Read, Suns will probably lose six picks, so our picks could be bumped up a few. Even bumped up two places, we can use our newly bumped 46, 48, and 50 to match from pick 14 onwards, and have a pick 52 (becoming 50) in the third round for a slider.

Yes, quite true. In fact even if the Suns and other clubs didn't have to match bids, and we had to use what are currently picks 48, 50 and 52 for Croft those picks get immediately vaporised meaning our pick 53 immediately moves up 3 and becomes pick 50. The GCS effect will no doubt have a much stronger impact than that.

However my main point was that unless we get very lucky we'll probably still need 3 of those late picks for Croft. Working out exactly where our remaining live picks could end up would do my head in!

There's also the question of what happens to the unused portion of the final pick we have to use. Say hypothetically that we have already used picks 48 and 50 and we are still 160 points short of what's needed. So we have to add in pick 52 which is worth 246, meaning we have 86 points left over. Do you know if this is added to our last pick (say 53 which is worth 233 points)? Or is it just converted directly to a late pick? By that I mean 233+86 = 319 which would be equivalent to pick 47, moving us up 6 places. Alternatively if it's just converted to a (new) late pick we'd get pick 66 for our hypothetical 86 points residue.

 

[weltschmerz]

Yes, quite true. In fact even if the Suns and other clubs didn't have to match bids, and we had to use what are currently picks 48, 50 and 52 for Croft those picks get immediately vaporised meaning our pick 53 immediately moves up 3 and becomes pick 50. The GCS effect will no doubt have a much stronger impact than that.

However my main point was that unless we get very lucky we'll probably still need 3 of those late picks for Croft. Working out exactly where our remaining live picks could end up would do my head in!

There's also the question of what happens to the unused portion of the final pick we have to use. Say hypothetically that we have already used picks 48 and 50 and we are still 160 points short of what's needed. So we have to add in pick 52 which is worth 246, meaning we have 86 points left over. Do you know if this is added to our last pick (say 53 which is worth 233 points)? Or is it just converted directly to a late pick? By that I mean 233+86 = 319 which would be equivalent to pick 47, moving us up 6 places. Alternatively if it's just converted to a (new) late pick we'd get pick 66 for our hypothetical 86 points residue.

I think the 86 points would be subtracted from our next pick's point value, so pick 53 (233 points) would become 59 (147 points).

 

[Euku]

He means we would have 86 points leftovers not subtracted

I think the 86 points would be subtracted from our next pick's point value, so pick 53 (233 points) would become 59 (147 points).

 

[dogwatch]

I think the 86 points would be subtracted from our next pick's point value, so pick 53 (233 points) would become 59 (147 points).

He means we would have 86 points leftovers not subtracted

Euku's right ... but in effect you've answered the question weltschmerz.

In my hypothetical we would still have a shortage of 160 points after sacrificing the first two picks (48 & 50) so we eat into pick 52 and the 160 we need is taken off the 246 points that pick 52 is worth leaving 86 points, which then becomes a totally new pick 66.

My question really related to our other pick, 53. If you're right it doesn't get augmented it just gets bypassed and stays at pick 53 while we get a totally new pick (#66) with the residue 86 points.

I must pay closer attention to the draft this year and see what they actually do in such situations!

 

[doggies ftw]

Talk of Duursma & Curtin for Norf is brilliant for us, would leave us with a real chance of McKercher.

I’m pretty confident we’ll pick McKercher > Watson > Sanders in that order and would probably leave Curtin/Duursma if one slips through. I think we’re guaranteed to have at least one of those 3 on the board too.

Good spot to be

 

[Dav1d]

Talk of Duursma & Curtin for Norf is brilliant for us, would leave us with a real chance of McKercher.

I’m pretty confident we’ll pick McKercher > Watson > Sanders in that order and would probably leave Curtin/Duursma if one slips through. I think we’re guaranteed to have at least one of those 3 on the board too.

Good spot to be

Where’s that mentioned?
I think North would do well to take Watson though, they need some exciting players

 

[Frewy]

Oh yeah, Sanders is 100% a top 6 pick and he has that ability to motor from a clearance that would be really appealing. I would be absolutely fine with taking him but McKercher is my dream pick.

I've got Sanders or Watson to the Dogs regardless of a West Coast or North pick swap. I don't think McKercher goes past Hawthorn because they just got Ginnivan in for Brockman as well as D'Ambrosio as a small utility so I don't see them taking Watson. I think the Dogs will snap up McKercher if he drops down, but I doubt it.

 

[doggy_dog]

Those who know more than me, what is Mannagh’s expected range? If we were to take a mid with our first pick would we be any chance of taking him late?