Opinion 2023 AFL Draft Prospects

[Mofra]

Pretty sure you can't be left with neither a first or second rounder in your future picks. If correct we could trade GC's future third as suggested but we'd be obliged to keep our future second.

Yet another reason I'm not entirely happy about our massive pick swap with GC this year. (But I'll recant if Sanders or whoever we pick turns into another Bontempelli type talent!)

You can if the AFL sign off an exception, whose formula is about as clear as FA compo...

 

[Mofra]

Checked out who he recommended for our 4th pick if indeed we take one: Tarkyn O'Leary. It's all a bit pie in the sky with later picks but this guy is just about the fastest player I've seen in a long time. Perfect winger. You never know!

O'Driscoll this year is tiny but could be the fastest player in the AFL next year, potentially ever. I don't think we're a chance to get him.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

I honestly think there’s a really decent chance McKercher slips through to us tbh

Surely the Hawks pounce if he makes it to them

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Going by every glowing assessment going around in the media of this years draftees it would seem that this crop is the greatest of all time. There doesn’t seem to be any downside to a draft that they would have us believe has champions flung about it like confetti at a wedding.

Perhaps we picked the wrong year to go all in and barge our way into the elite end of the draft when their player profiles suggest that guns as common as a night out in Detroit.

 

[doggies ftw]

Surely the Hawks pounce if he makes it to them

Wouldn’t surprise me if they preferred Watson though - they’re very keen to build the forward line which is non existent and all their recent high picks have gone on mids and it’s not an area of need anymore for them.

So in the scenario of Curtin & Duursma going to Norf (or norf & wce trade) I can see Watson to Hawks & McKercher sliding to us. It’s not likely but I’m not writing it off as a possibility

 

[Dav1d]

Wouldn’t surprise me if they preferred Watson though - they’re very keen to build the forward line which is non existent and all their recent high picks have gone on mids and it’s not an area of need anymore for them.

So in the scenario of Curtin & Duursma going to Norf (or norf & wce trade) I can see Watson to Hawks & McKercher sliding to us. It’s not likely but I’m not writing it off as a possibility

But how do you feel if we pass on McKercher..

 

[LittleG]

But how do you feel if we pass on McKercher..

For Sanders….

 

[dogwatch]

Going by every glowing assessment going around in the media of this years draftees it would seem that this crop is the greatest of all time. There doesn’t seem to be any downside to a draft that they would have us believe has champions flung about it like confetti at a wedding.

Perhaps we picked the wrong year to go all in and barge our way into the elite end of the draft when their player profiles suggest that guns as common as a night out in Detroit.

Year after year.

The early word was this draft was pretty shallow after Harley Reid and Jed Walter. A few very promising players down to about pick 6-8 and then a bit meh after that.

That was before the sports media and social media went into overdrive, but I'm still of the view the original assessment was about right.

What's lacking among the starry eyed media commentators is any longitudinal analysis. We tend to forget the pre-draft hype by the middle of the next season (when only a dozen or so of them have even debuted) but if you look back at previous drafts it's pretty much the same every year. It's instructive to see that most of the hyped up players have not in fact taken the competition by storm. Typically only about 10-20 really good players come in each draft (and not all of them in the top 20 picks) plus maybe another 20 or so who become senior regulars/role players without ever being bona fide stars. Plenty of top 30 draftees fail to kick on. Quite a few top 5 picks - maybe averaging close to one a year - don't get to 100 career games.

The problem is you have to go back at least 10 years to get a decent view of draftees and their careers. Unfortunately that's not as clickable as hyping up this year's crop. Take the 2012 draft as an example. After 10 seasons (end of 2022) only 17 of those drafted from junior ranks had played 100 games.

Not to worry though. I'm hearing next year's draft is really special...

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Year after year.

The early word was this draft was pretty shallow after Harley Reid and Jed Walter. A few very promising players down to about pick 6-8 and then a bit meh after that.

That was before the sports media and social media went into overdrive, but I'm still of the view the original assessment was about right.

What's lacking among the starry eyed media commentators is any longitudinal analysis. We tend to forget the pre-draft hype by the middle of the next season (when only a dozen or so of them have even debuted) but if you look back at previous drafts it's pretty much the same every year. It's instructive to see that most of the hyped up players have not in fact taken the competition by storm. Typically only about 10-20 really good players come in each draft (and not all of them in the top 20 picks) plus maybe another 20 or so who become senior regulars/role players without ever being bona fide stars. Plenty of top 30 draftees fail to kick on. Quite a few top 5 picks - maybe averaging close to one a year - don't get to 100 career games.

The problem is you have to go back at least 10 years to get a decent view of draftees and their careers. Unfortunately that's not as clickable as hyping up this year's crop. Take the 2012 draft as an example. After 10 seasons (end of 2022) only 17 of those drafted from junior ranks had played 100 games.

Not to worry though. I'm hearing next year's draft is really special...

They’re all infected with shifter Sheehanitis.

 

[doggies ftw]

But how do you feel if we pass on McKercher..

Honestly I’m happy enough with the whole top 7 that we’re guaranteed with, and I wouldn’t melt with any. If we think Sanders has a better career long term than McKercher I’d be okay with that. McKercher probably a better fit early on which is why I want him, but wouldn’t surprise me if Sanders is the better option considering how our midfield looks post Libba. Sanders, Baz & Bont probably works better than McKercher, Baz & Bont - if West steps up into a genuine inside mid replacement then the latter mix would be pretty exciting

 

[scratchie]

Honestly I’m happy enough with the whole top 7 that we’re guaranteed with, and I wouldn’t melt with any. If we think Sanders has a better career long term than McKercher I’d be okay with that. McKercher probably a better fit early on which is why I want him, but wouldn’t surprise me if Sanders is the better option considering how our midfield looks post Libba. Sanders, Baz & Bont probably works better than McKercher, Baz & Bont - if West steps up into a genuine inside mid replacement then the latter mix would be pretty exciting

Agree any of the top options look like quality. I find myself flipping from one to another - even Duursma - who I hadn't thought much of has elite traits and could be anything.

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

Sounds like we’re in the same boat as 2018 when we just took the bloke from the clear top 8 that slid. All of them look good, as they should. Who is most likely to make immediate impact?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Haven't seen any of him, or the alternatives, but is McKercher's CP:UP ratio a concern? His numbers from U18 don't look flash, and I would hazard an educated guess that the strike rate of top ten players with a CP% of 28% is not high.

BigFooty popularity for those players, though, is off the charts (hello Jimmy Toumpas

Jimmy Toumpas

Age

30

Ht

183cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

0.8

3star

No current season stats available

D

7.0

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.2

2star

and James Aish

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

).

 

[Mofra]

Year after year.

The early word was this draft was pretty shallow after Harley Reid and Jed Walter. A few very promising players down to about pick 6-8 and then a bit meh after that.

That was before the sports media and social media went into overdrive, but I'm still of the view the original assessment was about right.

What's lacking among the starry eyed media commentators is any longitudinal analysis. We tend to forget the pre-draft hype by the middle of the next season (when only a dozen or so of them have even debuted) but if you look back at previous drafts it's pretty much the same every year. It's instructive to see that most of the hyped up players have not in fact taken the competition by storm. Typically only about 10-20 really good players come in each draft (and not all of them in the top 20 picks) plus maybe another 20 or so who become senior regulars/role players without ever being bona fide stars. Plenty of top 30 draftees fail to kick on. Quite a few top 5 picks - maybe averaging close to one a year - don't get to 100 career games.

The problem is you have to go back at least 10 years to get a decent view of draftees and their careers. Unfortunately that's not as clickable as hyping up this year's crop. Take the 2012 draft as an example. After 10 seasons (end of 2022) only 17 of those drafted from junior ranks had played 100 games.

Not to worry though. I'm hearing next year's draft is really special...

I think this year's draft is deeper than last year.

I think next year's draft is already shaping as a good one for mids and not as good for other positions.

There are always kids taken late revert draft who do well. The worst draft in modern history is 2010, and we somehow nailed both rookie picks (JJ and Dahlhaus)

 

[Doggiesfan14]

We are considering taking Josh Chatfield (Footscray VFL)

 

[stefoid]

Haven't seen any of him, or the alternatives, but is McKercher's CP:UP ratio a concern? His numbers from U18 don't look flash, and I would hazard an educated guess that the strike rate of top ten players with a CP% of 28% is not high.

BigFooty popularity for those players, though, is off the charts (hello Jimmy Toumpas and James Aish).

good point - have to admit Im a sucker for damagin disposal.

 

[dogwatch]

I think this year's draft is deeper than last year.

I think next year's draft is already shaping as a good one for mids and not as good for other positions.

There are always kids taken late revert draft who do well. The worst draft in modern history is 2010, and we somehow nailed both rookie picks (JJ and Dahlhaus)

There's an off-season research and analysis project in there somewhere...

 

[dergert]

We are considering taking Josh Chatfield (Footscray VFL)

I think he is a good prospect and would be happy with the selection.

One I would think is a smokey is Bont's cousin Ethan Hunt.

Had a few strong games during our run of wins. He is a small defender that can run but lock down too.

 

[Dogs 13]

I think he is a good prospect and would be happy with the selection.

One I would think is a smokey is Bont's cousin Ethan Hunt.

Had a few strong games during our run of wins. He is a small defender that can run but lock down too.

That’s if he chooses to accept it

 

[Ash1337]

I think he is a good prospect and would be happy with the selection.

One I would think is a smokey is Bont's cousin Ethan Hunt.

Had a few strong games during our run of wins. He is a small defender that can run but lock down too.

Bont is cousins with a spy!?

 

[doggies ftw]

I think he is a good prospect and would be happy with the selection.

One I would think is a smokey is Bont's cousin Ethan Hunt.

Had a few strong games during our run of wins. He is a small defender that can run but lock down too.

There’s something about Hunt for sure, he’s tiny so not sure how that projects at AFL level for his role, but he definitely does some eye catching things and looks to have a crack defensively whilst also offering great run which is always a welcome mix

 

[BevoRambo]

Sanders running reminds me of libba
He looks lazy af for most of the time but goes when needed and closes the gap

But does he look lazy? I dont see it all, just moves like an a-grader in the making to my eye.

 

[dergert]

There’s something about Hunt for sure, he’s tiny so not sure how that projects at AFL level for his role, but he definitely does some eye catching things and looks to have a crack defensively whilst also offering great run which is always a welcome mix

I don't know if he got a combine invite? That'd be a good indicator.

 

[doggy_dog]

Cal Twomey has ruled us out as a team that would select Curtin

 

[TiAn_]

Haven't seen any of him, or the alternatives, but is McKercher's CP:UP ratio a concern? His numbers from U18 don't look flash, and I would hazard an educated guess that the strike rate of top ten players with a CP% of 28% is not high.

BigFooty popularity for those players, though, is off the charts (hello Jimmy Toumpas and James Aish).

Probably more of a product of his role on a particularly strong Allies team/midfield. Still had more clearances than Sanders at the Champs.