Analysis 2023 All Australian Team Awards Night

[Mr Meow]

I agree, I don't think Martin be in the team. I think Shai Bolton is actually more of chance from the outside looking in.
But as supporter who watches us every week I think Martin has been more consistent 4th for score involvements out of forwards.

Quick question: is Max King equal 6th for goals, or 47th?

Is Mitch Lewis higher than Charlie Cameron for goals (he does have a higher average after all) this season?

The answers are 47th and no. The 3 missed games don't hurt Dusty's average but they matter for scoreboard impact this season (same for Hawkins, once he did his hammy he was ruled out).

Martin is therefore 14th for score involvements, or 10th out of the contenders for forward spots in AA (Petracca, Curnow, Walker, Greene, Miers, Bolton, J.Cameron, Rozee and Langford have more). Which is still pretty respectable if it were backed up by being top 20 or even top 30 for goals or goal assists. He's only just in the top 50 for those. All of those players achieve this (all top 10 for at least one of goals/assists in fact) except for Rozee, who is 5th on the coaches votes leaderboard.

 

[HarryBeef]

My All-Australian Team

B: T. Stewart - S. Taylor - J. Sicily

HB: N. Daicos - J. Weitering - J. Sinclair

C: J. Daicos - M. Bontempelli(C) - E. Gulden

HF: D. Martin - T. Walker - C. Petracca

FF: C. Cameron - C. Curnow - T. Greene

FOL: T. English - Z. Butters - C. Rozee

Int: C. Serong - T. Taranto - L. Neale - T. Liberatore


What do you think of my team? I tried to be unbiased as possible.
Not sure if the AA is thinking about putting true wingmen in the team but I did and I think it should.

Good effort, I'd probably have Dawson over Taranto. Taranto's poor kicking lets him down.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Literally yet to see a non-richmond supporter arguing for Dusty in the side.
Let them have their rants, their dynasty is done.

Except Daniel Hoyne … the guy looking at the actual data … funny that.


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[Daka]

Good effort, I'd probably have Dawson over Taranto. Taranto's poor kicking lets him down.

Forgot about Dawson, I feel like he has dropped off a bit too like Taranto but Tim has kicked 19 goals and still average 29.2 disposals has the 2nd most disposals in the league wins plenty of contested possessions, yeah his kicking isn't elite but so are other inside midfielders. Dawson 6 goals 15 been a bit inaccurate. he would be an unlucky player if he missed though. that's why I put 4 midfielders on the bench.

 

[blaisee]

He fully deserved it last year despite flattening Prestia imo.

If he gets it this year, i agree it would be a gift based on his name and past reputation

Sicily should have been in last year not Stewart

 

[Noidnadroj]

I thought I was on "Ignore" buddy? Guess those were simply theatrics.

The players you've mentioned have massive amounts of goals, goal assists, or both - you know, the very thing I mentioned in my post. Pretty important criteria for selecting forwards in an AA side unless you're a top 10 midfielder who also scores well - e.g Dangerfield, Bontempelli, Petracca and (peak) Martin types over the years.

C.Cameron has all those goals AND more coaches votes against top 8 sides so there's an automatic walk in over Martin. Langford will finish with over 70 goals/assists which is self explanatory, and they are even on score involvements (Langford has two more SIs; games missed for Martin do matter for scoring metrics, like missing games can cost you a Coleman). Martin is in the Pickett and Papley bracket so you were right to bring them up.

You're making yourself look like a fool with player ratings. Nobody cares.

7 coaches votes, 13 goals and 6 goal assists from round 1-13 is a terrible return for a hybrid midfielder/forward. That's 1.6 goals/assists and 0.6 coaches votes per game for over 50% of the season to start things off.

You’re hilarious. You literally listed coach’s votes in your post to downplay his year…. Then coaches votes are presented to shows he’s superior to almost every other forward contender … then you suddenly want to ignore coaches votes.

Maybe in future don’t list things that actually work in Martin’s favour…. you’re not usually that sloppy Mr Meow.

Got any other data points you want to list that shows Martin is superior to his peers?

You seem very hung up on only goals and goal assists … thus rating Kyle Langford who receives a handball in the goal square, as more important than Merrett who won a contested ball on the wing to begin the chain that got the ball there in the first place. You know .. winning contests … something forwards like Jezza (4.4 per game) and Langford (5.09) and Breust (4.8) and Larkey (4.04) don’t excel at. Players like Martin (9.53) win the ball in forward line contests that often end up with the likes of Jezza getting the glory from the goal. Without Martin the uncontested receivers would be lucky to have 20-goals, as who do you think is winning the ball ?


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[Mr Meow]

You’re hilarious. You literally listed coach’s votes in your post to downplay his year…. Then coaches votes are presented to shows he’s superior to almost every other forward contender … then you suddenly want to ignore coaches votes.

Maybe in future don’t list things that actually work in Martin’s favour…. you’re not usually that sloppy Mr Meow.

Got any other data points you want to list that shows Martin is superior to his peers?

You seem very hung up on only goals and goal assists … thus rating Kyle Langford who receives a handball in the goal square, as more important than Merrett who won a contested ball on the wing to begin the chain that got the ball there in the first place. You know .. winning contests … something forwards like Jezza (4.4 per game) and Langford (5.09) and Breust (4.8) and Larkey (4.04) don’t excel at. Players like Martin (9.53) win the ball in forward line contests that often end up with the likes of Jezza getting the glory from the goal. Without Martin the uncontested receivers would be lucky to have 20-goals, as who do you think is winning the ball ?


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Glad to be of service.

It's surely not hard to comprehend that for players picked in the forward spots for AA you have two categories:

1 - Top 10 midfielders in the comp that are very high for score involvements, and usually goals/assists (relative to other midfielders) - often on the flanks
2 - Top 10 goal kickers and/or goal assist providers (moreso the former which is why I think Miers misses out. Aggregate is best. Being truly elite in one is essential)

In my team Petracca and Rozee are sufficient to share that category 1 role. If you had a million midfielders, as AA teams tend to do, then Bontempelli and Butters could fill out any other forward rotations as you'll still have Serong, Dawson, Merrett etc. These are thus great options for the flanks, along with Greene who pushes up the ground. Why would I be selecting Martin ahead of those players?

Inside the arcs lets go for goals/assists. Why wouldn't we? A genuine goal machine crumber - pick your best one - I'm going with C.Cameron who contributes a significant amount to Brisbane's potency. Then a mobile medium or third tall who can find the big sticks unless there's another truly outstanding small. Langford makes sense. Failing all of that you can't go wrong with the guy who has directly set up over 40 goals and is the best kick inside forward 50 in the comp statistically.

Bolded is more deflective waffle, your specialty. I'm already full from the past few days, you can throw that in the bin.

 

[Mr Meow]

I've had a go at it.

B Sicily Andrews Wilkie

HB J Sinclair D Moore N Daicos

C E Gulden C Serong J Daicos

HF C Rozee T Walker C Petracca

FF T Greene C Curnow C Cameron

R T English M Bontempelli Z Butters

Int D Houston T Liberatore J Dawson K Langford

in the Squad- N Newman, I Quaynor, T Stewart, J Weitering, S Taylor ,L Neale, Z Merrett, T Taranto, j Viney, S Coniglio, A Cerra, T Green, S Bolton, D Martin, G Miers, J Daniher, J Cameron, N Larkey , R Marshall, M Gawn

Very close to mine.

FB: Sicily Andrews Houston

HB: Sinclair Moore N.Daicos

C: Gulden Bontempelli J.Daicos

HF: Greene Walker Petracca

FF: Langford Curnow C.Cameron

FOL: English Rozee Butters

IC: Serong Merrett Dawson Stewart

It's close between Wilkie and Stewart. Wilkie has defended better and had more accountable roles while still being the leading interceptor in the comp. He is oddly low compared to Stewart for rebound 50s (5.0 vs 7.2) and inside 50s (0.6 vs 1.5) and has 3.5 less effective kicks per game. Wilkie has the contested mark edge, Stewart for intercept marks. Pretty similar for coaches votes. Happy with either.

Andrews and Weitering is similarly neck and neck. Whoever misses out will be desperately unlucky.

Houston's excellence should be rewarded with a starting spot even if back pocket isn't actually his position. He's a lock - and locks tend to make it on the field.

I'd see Newman competing more with Houston, Sinclair and N.Daicos high half back roles. So he's just unlucky the competition is so high, especially given the latter two have played a lot of midfield. In a real side maybe N.Daicos pushes out a Dawson and Newman takes a genuine half back role alongside Houston.

I think the wingmen, ruck, forwards and mids explain themselves although Neale would be unlucky to miss the cut. In a genuine side I'd pick to play tomorrow one of Miers and Bolton would make perfect sense. But they're not going to make even more midfield sacrifices after the wingers have pushed their way in.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Glad to be of service.

It's surely not hard to comprehend that for players picked in the forward spots for AA you have two categories:

1 - Top 10 midfielders in the comp that are very high for score involvements, and usually goals/assists (relative to other midfielders) - often on the flanks
2 - Top 10 goal kickers and/or goal assist providers (moreso the former which is why I think Miers misses out. Aggregate is best. Being truly elite in one is essential)

In my team Petracca and Rozee are sufficient to share that category 1 role. If you had a million midfielders, as AA teams tend to do, then Bontempelli and Butters could fill out any other forward rotations as you'll still have Serong, Dawson, Merrett etc. These are thus great options for the flanks, along with Greene who pushes up the ground. Why would I be selecting Martin ahead of those players?

Inside the arcs lets go for goals/assists. Why wouldn't we? A genuine goal machine crumber - pick your best one - I'm going with C.Cameron who contributes a significant amount to Brisbane's potency. Then a mobile medium or third tall who can find the big sticks unless there's another truly outstanding small. Langford makes sense. Failing all of that you can't go wrong with the guy who has directly set up over 40 goals and is the best kick inside forward 50 in the comp statistically.

Bolded is more deflective waffle, your specialty. I'm already full from the past few days, you can throw that in the bin.

This is a serious question. You spoke about Martin’s R1-13 precluding him.

In the 12 x matches from R9 to R21, Charlie Cameron kicked more than 2 x goals once. Just once. He didn’t get more than 11 touches a single time in that 12-game span. He had 18 goals and 8 goal assists in that 12 weeks. Playing in a top-2 team.

Do you think such a baron period should count against him? He had only 57 SI in that 12-week period.

Martin’s 12 x games from R1-13 you say preclude him included 79 SI’s, 13 x goals and 6 goal assists. So 22 more SI’s, but 7 less goals and goal assists. I won’t go into Martin getting more than double the possessions, contested possessions, clearances etc….



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[Mr Meow]

This is a serious question. You spoke about Martin’s R1-13 precluding him.

In the 12 x matches from R9 to R21, Charlie Cameron kicked more than 2 x goals once. Just once. He didn’t get more than 11 touches a single time in that 12-game span. He had 18 goals and 8 goal assists in that 12 weeks. Playing in a top-2 team.

Do you think such a baron period should count against him? He had only 57 SI in that 12-week period.

Martin’s 12 x games from R1-13 you say preclude him included 79 SI’s, 13 x goals and 6 goal assists. So 22 more SI’s, but 7 less goals and goal assists. I won’t go into Martin getting more than double the possessions, contested possessions, clearances etc….



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Charlie Cameron is a better candidate for a forward pocket based on his 2023 season than Dustin Martin - controversial opinion, I know. He's kicked bags of 7, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4 and 3 - four of those games were against sides currently in the top 8, with two of those against the best team in the comp. Only one of those was against one of the bottom 3 sides.

Martin has bags of 4, 3 and 3. Only one of those was against a side in the top 10 positions.

Cameron has had 6 games of providing 2 or more goal assists. Martin has 4.

Greene plays tall for his size so there is room for a genuinely elite crumbing forward who roves the packs or burns opposition with lightning pace running into forward 50. Cameron is that player. Martin isn't. In a world where Petracca and Rozee don't exist, Martin might be a candidate for the last flank or bench spot. They are leagues above him this year, as they should be as players in their prime.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Lock in D. Martin in the forward line please.

 

[Roby]

So he’s got 18 of his coaches votes against top-8 teams.

Langford has 10 against top-8.
Toby Greene has 10 against top-8 … has polled in just 1 game v top-8.
Charlie Curnow has 13 v top-8
Miers has 11 v top-8
Larkey has 8 v top-8
Papley has zero against top-8
Kasiah Pickett has zero against top-8
Charlie Cameron has 23 v top-8

* Curnow and Greene are rightfully locks, but just showing coaches votes against top-8 teams is a diversion and Martin votes better than nearly all of them. Coaches votes are also very hard to come by in losses.

As for R1-13 ( as a guide the average rating for a medium forward is 9):

R1: 23 touches, a goal, goal assist and 5 x SI. Player rating 13.7

R4: 23 touches, a goal, goal assist and 10 x SI. Rating 18.6

R6: 25 touches, a goal and 7 SI. Rating 16.8

R8: 27 touches, a goal, goal assist and 8 x SI. Rating 18

R9: 19 touches, 4 goals, a goal assist and 9 x SI. Rating 16.4

R10: 24 touches, 2 goals, 9 x SI. Rating 13.8

R13: 27 touches, 2 goal assists 9 x SI. Rating 8.5

So there’s 7 games from R1-13 with 10 goals, 6 goal assists and 57 score involvements.

And then he really kicked into gear, with his 7 x games he’s played post R13 netting:

189 disposals (avg 27), 11 goals (1.57), 8 goal assists and a whopping 63 SI’s (9 per game) and average player rating of 16.9.

But no, would be a travesty if he got into the AA ahead of all those forward candidates who have less than 13 coaches votes against top-8 teams when Martin has 18


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After seeing this post, I'd thought it would be interesting to see coaches votes versus top 8 teams, amongst top 20 vote getters:

Dawson	52
Newcombe	43
Taranto	37
Cripps	36
Bontempelli	35
Sinclair	33
Merrett	29
Anderson	29
Rozee	25
Liberatore	25
Daicos	24
Butters	24
Jackson	23
Viney	22
Houston	21
Serong	17
Gulden	15
Neale	12
Greene	10

I wonder if this changes some people's perceptions around certain players.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Lock in D. Martin in the forward line please.

View attachment 1785272

Wow! Compelling stats.

Either way, coming back from the best part of 2-years out and playing predominantly forward in a crud team, he’s had an excellent year that may see him in the AA squad, which puts him in the top 6% of players in the comp.

Having missed 3 games and subbed out in another, an AA squad position, on top of his elite stats, would be a great achievement given many had doubted his ability to play high level footy again, and many had also doubted his ability to perform in a struggling team.


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[theasian]

Charlie Cameron is a better candidate for a forward pocket based on his 2023 season than Dustin Martin - controversial opinion, I know. He's kicked bags of 7, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4 and 3 - four of those games were against sides currently in the top 8, with two of those against the best team in the comp. Only one of those was against one of the bottom 3 sides.

Martin has bags of 4, 3 and 3. Only one of those was against a side in the top 10 positions.

Cameron has had 6 games of providing 2 or more goal assists. Martin has 4.

Greene plays tall for his size so there is room for a genuinely elite crumbing forward who roves the packs or burns opposition with lightning pace running into forward 50. Cameron is that player. Martin isn't. In a world where Petracca and Rozee don't exist, Martin might be a candidate for the last flank or bench spot. They are leagues above him this year, as they should be as players in their prime.

Charlie Cameron did have a mid-late season slump, but his last 2 games probably put's him in. Fwd Pocket is one spot AA selectors are undeicded though. Could go to Langford or Daniher or Larkey even if they decide to go with 3 tall-fwds or have a fwd who can pinch it in the ruck

 

[Mr Meow]

Charlie Cameron did have a mid-late season slump, but his last 2 games probably put's him in. Fwd Pocket is one spot AA selectors are undeicded though. Could go to Langford or Daniher or Larkey even if they decide to go with 3 tall-fwds or have a fwd who can pinch it in the ruck

The Lions have been the most potent scorers in the comp and have been up there in firepower for years. Surely C.Cameron or Daniher get rewarded for that as the two major weapons. Hawkins and Cameron's injuries have meant that third tall forward spot is very much alive; people will point to Langford but he fits a grey area. And Daniher has the second ruck versatility. If it came down to it and I had to pick one, out of two very very different types of players. I'd still prefer Charlie though. Both making it would fine but surely then someone like Langford or an elite mid would have to miss out.

 

[Mr Meow]

Noidnadroj Langford's goals and assists tonight so far make up 100% of his sides goals, and he has been involved in 66% of their scores...in a losing side against the best team in the comp. After scoring 40% of his sides goals last week. What a player!

 

[nut]

Martin is a lock

 

[Cyclonus]

Martin is a lock

Nic's been good but Gulden and Daicos will get the wing spots.

 

[Lingsface]

Merrett has to be in he has been exceptional this year.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of round 24
Should Dustin Martin be in the All-Australian team? Stats guru Daniel Hoyne says it’s one of the easiest calls of the year.

Dustin Martin should be a “walk-up” for this year’s All-Australian team after producing numbers never seen before by Champion Data.

But stats guru Daniel Hoyne is worried the Tigers champ will be overlooked by selectors.

“Sometimes the superstars get compared to themselves as opposed to getting compared to the competition,” the Champion Data analyst said on Pure Footy.


“He should be a walk-up – here’s your jacket, what size are you, put it on next Wednesday night.”

“It’s frustrating when you hear people say, ‘He’s had an OK year’, but he hasn’t had an OK year, he has been frightening ... Since round 14 he’s the third-best player in the competition behind only Charlie Curnow

30

Charlie Curnow

Age

27

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

and Jack Sinclair

35

Jack Sinclair

Age

29

Ht

181cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.5

4star

K

8.1

3star

HB

8.4

5star

M

3.1

3star

T

3.2

5star

MG

235.0

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

5.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

MG

376.0

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

7.8

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.0

4star

MG

138.2

3star

.”

Across the season, Martin is the fourth-highest rated forward under Champion’s 100X ratings system, behind Curnow, Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

and Taylor Walker

13

Taylor Walker

Age

34

Ht

194cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.7

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

8.0

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

1.6

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

.

He ranks first among all forwards for disposals – averaging 23.1 per game – contested possessions and forward-50 ground ball gets, and fifth for score involvements.

Hoyne said the numbers were even more impressive because Martin was playing only 14 per cent of game time in the midfield.


“He plays 86 per cent of his time as a forward and he’s winning 23 disposals – that has never been done in 18 years of us capturing time in position data.

“No player who has spent 85 per cent forward time or more in a season has won more ball than Dusty has this year.”

 

[nut]

Martin should get the Captaincy

 

[eth-dog]

Not sure if Richmond fans understand there's only one AA side, not 3.

 

[Mr Meow]

Martin should get the Captaincy

You don't think Dimma will be happy with Touk?

 

[HarryBeef]

Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of round 24
Should Dustin Martin be in the All-Australian team? Stats guru Daniel Hoyne says it’s one of the easiest calls of the year.

Dustin Martin should be a “walk-up” for this year’s All-Australian team after producing numbers never seen before by Champion Data.

But stats guru Daniel Hoyne is worried the Tigers champ will be overlooked by selectors.

“Sometimes the superstars get compared to themselves as opposed to getting compared to the competition,” the Champion Data analyst said on Pure Footy.


“He should be a walk-up – here’s your jacket, what size are you, put it on next Wednesday night.”

“It’s frustrating when you hear people say, ‘He’s had an OK year’, but he hasn’t had an OK year, he has been frightening ... Since round 14 he’s the third-best player in the competition behind only Charlie Curnow and Jack Sinclair.”

Across the season, Martin is the fourth-highest rated forward under Champion’s 100X ratings system, behind Curnow, Toby Greene and Taylor Walker.

He ranks first among all forwards for disposals – averaging 23.1 per game – contested possessions and forward-50 ground ball gets, and fifth for score involvements.

Hoyne said the numbers were even more impressive because Martin was playing only 14 per cent of game time in the midfield.


“He plays 86 per cent of his time as a forward and he’s winning 23 disposals – that has never been done in 18 years of us capturing time in position data.

“No player who has spent 85 per cent forward time or more in a season has won more ball than Dusty has this year.”

Will Tigers fans continue to post this 3 times a day in this thread?

 

[HarryBeef]

Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of round 24
Should Dustin Martin be in the All-Australian team? Stats guru Daniel Hoyne says it’s one of the easiest calls of the year.

Dustin Martin should be a “walk-up” for this year’s All-Australian team after producing numbers never seen before by Champion Data.

But stats guru Daniel Hoyne is worried the Tigers champ will be overlooked by selectors.

“Sometimes the superstars get compared to themselves as opposed to getting compared to the competition,” the Champion Data analyst said on Pure Footy.


“He should be a walk-up – here’s your jacket, what size are you, put it on next Wednesday night.”

“It’s frustrating when you hear people say, ‘He’s had an OK year’, but he hasn’t had an OK year, he has been frightening ... Since round 14 he’s the third-best player in the competition behind only Charlie Curnow and Jack Sinclair.”

Across the season, Martin is the fourth-highest rated forward under Champion’s 100X ratings system, behind Curnow, Toby Greene and Taylor Walker.

He ranks first among all forwards for disposals – averaging 23.1 per game – contested possessions and forward-50 ground ball gets, and fifth for score involvements.

Hoyne said the numbers were even more impressive because Martin was playing only 14 per cent of game time in the midfield.


“He plays 86 per cent of his time as a forward and he’s winning 23 disposals – that has never been done in 18 years of us capturing time in position data.

“No player who has spent 85 per cent forward time or more in a season has won more ball than Dusty has this year.”

This is also the same person who had Brodie Grundy as the AA ruck after round 16.